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要且明確的方式做出國家承諾時，例如威脅/行使否決權(quán)時，個人特征的影響較小。當這種情況沒有發(fā)生時（例如，在代表團的立場上表現(xiàn)出靈活性或使用說服力），個人特征的影響反而很大?！驹摹縏his article intends to investigate to what extent, how, and when individuals who are belowtheleader’s level affect the processes and outputs of international politics. It does so by analyzing one groupof

below-leader actors—diplomatic negotiators in EU foreign policy. It first shows how, despite all thebureaucratic layers they are embedded in, individual negotiators have de facto acquired ultimatepolicymaking responsibilities, most prominently in the selection of tactics. This empowerment of individual

diplomats occurs through a process of double state disaggregation: Policymaking responsibilities haveshifted from the political to the bureaucratic level; then, within the latter, fromthe capital-basedadministration to the officials involved, often in single capacity, in negotiations. Next, it tests threeindividual characteristics (experience, style, and identity) against an original dataset of 138 questionnairescompleted by EU diplomats and 17 interviews. It shows that negotiators’ personal traits explain the useof

some, but not all, tactics. Specifically, they are less likely to matter when negotiators have to commit thestate in significant and explicit ways, e.g., when threatening/exercising veto. When this does not happen(e.g., showing flexibility in the delegation’s position or using persuasion), the influence of individual

characteristics is instead strong. 10. 城市中的組織拼湊和叛亂團體效力：哥倫比亞 4 月 19 日運動的形成和初始城市運動（1973-1980 年）（Organizational Bricolage and Insurgent Group Effectiveness inCities:The Formation and Initial Urban Campaign of the Movement of the 19th of April inColombia（1973–1980））

Simon Pierre Boulanger Martel，斯德哥爾摩大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士后

【摘要】叛亂團體如何在城市中形成？是什么讓以城市為基礎(chǔ)的叛亂組織有效？由于城市的政治、經(jīng)濟和人口意義，城市武裝沖突已成為重要的研究課題。然而，學(xué)界對城市背景下叛亂團體形成和效力的機制知之甚少。本文以哥倫比亞 M-19 的形成和初始城市運動（1973-1980 年）為例，認為來自多個組織并面臨內(nèi)部競爭的叛亂領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人有強烈的動機采用組織拼湊來組建他們的組織。組織拼湊通過產(chǎn)生適合實現(xiàn)某些目標但不適合其他目標的結(jié)構(gòu)來塑造叛亂效力。M-19 的組織拼湊結(jié)合了武裝先鋒隊、知識集體和民粹主義政黨形式。這種結(jié)構(gòu)有效地獲得了公眾支持，但無法建立強大的社會基礎(chǔ)并在鎮(zhèn)壓下維持城市行動。該研究采用組織庫分析和過程追蹤來追溯 M-19 的形成和初始城市運動。實證材料包括一份原始數(shù)據(jù)集，其中包含 M-19 創(chuàng)始人的傳記數(shù)據(jù)、檔案文件和對前戰(zhàn)斗人員的采訪。研究叛軍領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人如何運用組織拼湊法，有助于了解叛亂組織在戰(zhàn)后如何形成、行為和轉(zhuǎn)變?！驹摹縃ow do rebel groups form in cities? What makes urban-based insurgent organizations effective?Urban armed conflicts have become an important subject of research due to the political, economic, anddemographic significance of cities. Yet, we know little about the mechanisms of insurgent group formationand effectiveness in urban contexts. Building on the case of the formation and initial urban campaignof

M-19 in Colombia (1973–1980), this article argues that rebel leaders originating from multiple organizationsand confronted with intramovement competition have strong motives to employ organizational bricolageto

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form their organization. Organizational bricolage shapes insurgent effectiveness by producing structures that

are fit for achieving certain objectives but not others. M-19’s organizational bricolage combined the armedvanguard, intellectual collective, and populist party forms. This structure was effective to foster publicsupport but ineffective to establish a robust social base and maintain urban operations under repression. Theresearch employs the analysis of organizational repertoires and process tracing to retrace M-19’s formationand initial urban campaign. Empirical material includes an original dataset comprising M-19 founders’ biographical data, archival documents, and interviews with ex-combatants. Studying howrebel leadersemploy organizational bricolage sheds light on how insurgent organizations form, behave, and transformafter war. 11. 聯(lián)合國性剝削和性虐待評估報告對維和派遣國行動的動態(tài)影響（The DynamicEffects of UN SEA Reporting on the Actions of Peacekeeping Contributing Countries）Angie Torres-Beltran，美國密歇根州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)系院長助理研究員（博士后）Cameron Mailhot, 美國亞利桑那大學(xué)政府與公共政策學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】聯(lián)合國關(guān)于性剝削與性虐待（SEA）的報告對維和任務(wù)中提供部隊和警察的國家（TPCCs）的行動有何影響？盡管以往的研究已經(jīng)探討了點名批評對國家人權(quán)記錄的影響，本文在此研究了聯(lián)合國對其成員國人員所犯人權(quán)侵犯行為的報告與這些國家政策及人員響應(yīng)之間的關(guān)系。聚焦于維和任務(wù)中的 SEA 報告，本文提出了一個理論，即聯(lián)合國對 SEA 的報告可能引發(fā)兩種截然不同的回應(yīng)：TPCCs可能會頒布法律框架，以示合規(guī)并處理 SEA 問題，或者他們可能通過減少人員投入來退出維和任務(wù)。基于一項原創(chuàng)的、跨國數(shù)據(jù)集（2010-2020 年）——其中包含了聯(lián)合國對 SEA 指控的報告，以及TPCCs發(fā)布框架和人員投入的模式——本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，相比于未被報告的國家，被 SEA 報告的TPCCs 更有可能發(fā)布法律框架并減少人員貢獻，而且這種關(guān)系在第一次報告后尤為強烈。由于被點名的TPCCs 表現(xiàn)出更強的政策合規(guī)性和人員撤出行為，本文的研究結(jié)果強調(diào)了聯(lián)合國關(guān)于SEA 報告對TPCCs 行動的動態(tài)影響。

【原文】What effect does sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) reporting by the United Nations (UN) haveon the actions of peacekeeping missions’ troop and police contributing countries (TPCCs)? While past

scholarship has studied the effect of naming and shaming for states’ human rights records, we examinetherelationship between the UN’s reporting on human rights abuses committed by its Member States’ personnel

and their policy and personnel responses. Focusing on SEA reporting within peacekeeping missions, wetheorize the ways in which the UN’s reporting of SEA may lead to two distinct responses: TPCCs mayissuelegal frameworks to demonstrate compliance and address SEA, or they may withdraw frompeacekeepingmissions by reducing their personnel commitments. Using an original, cross-national dataset of UNreportingon SEA allegations and the patterns of framework issuance and personnel commitments among TPCCs(2010–2020), we find that TPCCs with SEA reports are more likely to issue legal frameworks and toreducepersonnel contributions than their nonreported counterparts, and that this relationship is particularlystrongfollowing the first instance of reporting. With targeted TPCCs demonstrating both greater policy compliance

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and personnel withdrawal, our findings highlight the dynamic impact that UN reporting for SEAcan haveonthe actions of TPCCs. 12. 供應(yīng)暴政：自然資源和叛亂分子在國內(nèi)沖突中的領(lǐng)土控制（The Tyranny of Supply:Natural Resources and Rebel Territorial Control in Civil Conflicts）Jacob Aronson，美國馬里蘭大學(xué)國際發(fā)展與沖突管理中心助理研究科學(xué)家Kyosuke Kikuta，日本貿(mào)易振興機構(gòu)發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟研究所研究員、教授

Michael Findley，美國德克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校教授

James Igoe Walsh，美國北卡羅來納大學(xué)夏洛特分校政治學(xué)、數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)和公共政策教授【摘要】領(lǐng)土控制的邏輯是研究內(nèi)部沖突的核心?，F(xiàn)有的研究考慮了領(lǐng)土控制的后果，卻沒有回答一個關(guān)鍵問題：首先是什么激發(fā)了反叛分子的領(lǐng)土控制？領(lǐng)土控制需要仔細解釋。雖然它帶來了重要的好處，但實現(xiàn)起來也代價高昂，并使反對派暴露在政府的攻擊之下。本文認為，當領(lǐng)土控制為叛軍提供可靠的組織供應(yīng)來源時，收益大于成本。高價值的可掠奪自然資源——儲量豐富、易于提取和運輸銷售的資源——是叛軍供應(yīng)鏈的關(guān)鍵組成部分。為了檢驗該理論的含義，我們引入了撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)新的跨國家和次國家領(lǐng)土控制時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，并將其與當?shù)刈匀毁Y源價值的新數(shù)據(jù)集相結(jié)合。本文使用工具變量方法來解決核心內(nèi)生性問題。結(jié)果既證實了本文的理論方法，也提供了與現(xiàn)有論點相反的證據(jù)。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，寶貴的自然資源、后勤供應(yīng)限制，以及更廣泛地說，叛軍軍事戰(zhàn)略至關(guān)重要，需要納入內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、領(lǐng)土控制和叛軍治理的工作中。

【原文】The logic of territorial control is central to the study of internal conflict. Existing studies consider

the consequences of territorial control without answering a critical question: what motivates rebel territorial

control in the first place? Territorial control requires careful explanation. While it confers important benefitsit is also costly to achieve and exposes rebels to state attack. This paper argues that benefits exceedcostswhen territorial control provides rebels with a reliable source of organizational supply. High-value lootablenatural resources—resources available in abundance that are easy to extract and transport for sale—represent

key components of a rebel's supply chain. To test the theory's implications, we introduce newcross- andsub-national time-series data on territorial control in sub-Saharan Africa and couple it with a newdataset of

local natural resource values. We use an instrumental variable approach to address core endogeneityconcerns. Results both substantiate our theoretical approach and provide evidence running contrarytoexisting arguments. These findings demonstrate that valuable natural resources, logistical supply constraints, and, more broadly, rebel military strategy, are critically important and need to be incorporated into workoncivil war, territorial control, and rebel governance. 13. 與亦敵亦友的貿(mào)易：經(jīng)濟外交如何影響出口（Trading with Frenemies: HowEconomicDiplomacy Affects Exports Get access Arrow）

Don Casler，美國伊利諾伊大學(xué)厄巴納-香檳分校政治系助理教授

Matthew Connelly，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)國際和全球史教授

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Raymond Hicks，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)國際和全球史副研究員

【摘要】貿(mào)易本身就有風(fēng)險，涉及到進口商和出口商的承諾問題。前者必須處理出口商是否會按承諾提供商品或服務(wù)的事先不確定性，而后者必須確定愿意交易產(chǎn)品的進口商。那么，企業(yè)如何建立貿(mào)易關(guān)系，尤其是在新市場？盡管古典和新興的貿(mào)易理論都傾向于淡化政府在貿(mào)易中的作用，但本文認為，政府機構(gòu)在解決這種不確定性方面發(fā)揮著至關(guān)重要的作用。具體而言，出口促進機構(gòu)和外國大使館審查潛在的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系，并在潛在的爭端變得過于嚴重之前阻止它們，從而防止貿(mào)易的基本風(fēng)險。本文假設(shè)，這種制度支持將在大國與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中和政治上異質(zhì)性較大的國家之間的貿(mào)易中產(chǎn)生更強的出口促進效果。通過分析 1970 年代大量涉及出口促進的美國國務(wù)院電報，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，當經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易壁壘較高且在與美國政治上不相似的國家中，促進努力的效果最為顯著。政府官員并非被動參與貿(mào)易，而是在幫助企業(yè)建立貿(mào)易關(guān)系方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。

【原文】Trade is inherently risky, involving a commitment problem for both importers and exporters. Theformer must deal with ex ante uncertainty about whether exporters will deliver the goods or services aspromised, while the latter has to identify an importer willing to trade a product. How, then, do firms establishtrading relationships, especially in new markets? While both classical and newer trade theories tendtodownplay the role of government in trade, we argue that government institutions play a crucial roleinresolving this uncertainty. Specifically, export promotion agencies and embassies in foreign countries vet

potential trade contacts and head off potential disputes before they get too serious, thus insuring against thebasic risks of trade. We expect that this institutional backing will have stronger export-promoting effects ongreat powers’ trade with economically developing and politically dissimilar countries. Using a largecollection of U.S. State Department cables from the 1970s that concern export promotion, we findstrongevidence that promotion efforts had the largest effect when economic trade barriers were high andincountries that were politically dissimilar to the U.S. Rather than passively participating in trade, government

bureaucrats play a large role in helping firms establish trading relationships. 14. 邊境屏障與非法貿(mào)易流動（Border Barriers and Illicit Trade Flows）David B Carter，美國圣路易斯華盛頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

Bailee Donahue，美國北卡羅來納大學(xué)教堂山分校政治學(xué)博士、數(shù)據(jù)分析師Rob Williams，美國北卡羅來納大學(xué)教堂山分校政治學(xué)博士、數(shù)據(jù)分析師【摘要】全球筑起的邊境屏障數(shù)量急劇增加。這一圍墻激增現(xiàn)象是全球化“反彈”趨勢的重要組成部分，各國因應(yīng)經(jīng)濟開放和全球化帶來的不良后果，而非法貿(mào)易和走私活動的增加便是一個顯著的例子。盡管“筑墻以打擊非法流動”的觀點廣為流傳，但至今沒有系統(tǒng)的研究探討圍墻對非法貿(mào)易的總體影響。這一缺失值得注意，主要有兩個原因。首先，關(guān)于筑墻的最主要解釋就是為了打擊非法貿(mào)易。其次，最近的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，圍墻顯著減少了合法貿(mào)易，認為這一發(fā)現(xiàn)源于邊境防御將非法貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移至入境口岸，從而導(dǎo)致更多的檢查、安全和交易成本。本文利用超過五十年的產(chǎn)品級別數(shù)據(jù)，開發(fā)了一種新的非法貿(mào)易流動測量方法，并提供了一系列證據(jù)，表明邊境屏障在入境口岸增加了非法貿(mào)易流動。

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【原文】The number of fortified borders around the world has risen precipitously. This surge in walls is animportant part of the larger globalization “backlash,” as countries react to the unwanted consequences of

economic openness and globalization, with a rise in illicit trade and smuggling being a prominent example. Despite the prominence of the idea that walls are built to combat illicit flows, no research systematicallyexplores how walls generally affect illicit trade. This is a notable omission for at least two reasons. First, themost prominent explanations for wall construction put combating illicit trade front and center. Second, recent work that finds walls significantly reduce legal trade argues that this finding derives fromborder

fortifications diverting illegal trade to ports of entry, which leads to more inspection, security, andtransaction costs. We develop a new measure of illicit trade flows using over five decades of product-level

data and provide a battery of evidence that shows border barriers increase illicit flows at ports of entry. 15. 聲譽與國際關(guān)系的變化（Reputations and Change in International Relations）Ekrem T Baser，美國雪城大學(xué)麥克斯韋學(xué)院政治學(xué)系博士后研究員

【摘要】在國際關(guān)系中，堅定性的聲譽對于威懾對手和安撫伙伴至關(guān)重要。然而，一個國家的堅定性是不可觀察的，并且可能在不為外界所知的情況下發(fā)生變化。那么，未被察覺的變化可能性會如何影響聲譽動態(tài)呢？本文通過一個涵蓋沖突和合作領(lǐng)域的正式模型，提出了一個關(guān)于在堅定性變化下長期聲譽的理論。在該模型中，當前聲譽可能基于過時信息，這使得觀眾會對聲譽不佳的國家給予懷疑的好處。這導(dǎo)致國家根據(jù)其當前聲譽來建立或消耗其聲譽。重要的是，當受損的聲譽可以重建時，聲譽較好的國家更容易產(chǎn)生消耗聲譽的強烈誘惑。因此，聲譽約束對聲譽不佳的國家影響最大。此外，由于展示堅定性會改善聲譽，而聲譽的提升又會減少未來展示堅定性的動機，沖突與合作呈現(xiàn)出一種周期性的節(jié)奏。一個重要的影響是，即使國家的堅定性未變、利益攸關(guān)相同，國家的行為也會隨其聲譽變化而改變。聲譽執(zhí)行確實有效，但代價是偶爾的信任破裂。這些結(jié)果也解決了國際關(guān)系聲譽文獻中的一些長期爭議。

【原文】Reputations for resolve are critical in international relations for deterring adversaries and reassuringpartners. However, a state’s resolve is unobservable and can change unbeknownst to its audience. Howdoesthe possibility of unobserved change impact reputation dynamics? I provide a theory of long-run reputationswith changing resolve via a formal model covering conflict and cooperation domains. In the model, thepossibility that current reputations are based on outdated information makes the audience extend the benefit

of the doubt to states with poor reputations. This leads to states building or spending their reputationsdepending on their current reputations. Importantly, when damaged reputations can be rebuilt, states withbetter reputations face stronger temptations to spend them. Thus, reputations constrain states withpoor

reputations the most. Further, because demonstrations of resolve improve reputations, which, in turn, reduceincentives for future demonstrations of resolve, there is a cyclical rhythm to conflict and cooperation. Amajor implication is that a state’s behavior changes with its reputation even if its resolve is unchangedandthe stakes are identical. Reputational enforcement works, but the price is occasional breaches of trust. Theseresults also settle a few long-standing controversies in the IR-reputation literature.

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16. 性別戰(zhàn)爭？外交作為國際性別和性政治中的去極化實踐（Gender Wars? Diplomacyas a Depolarizing Practice in International Politics of Gender and Sexuality）Monika de Silva，瑞典哥德堡大學(xué)政治系博士研究生

【摘要】外交在多大程度上是國際社會的去極化工具？本文提出了一個關(guān)于國際性別和性政治去極化的全新理論和實證視角。它將極化和去極化的概念進行操作化，并將其與國際關(guān)系中的自我/他者理論相結(jié)合。本文提出了一個論點，即盡管不完全明確，但外交的邏輯與去極化的邏輯在很大程度上是相容的。為了支持這一觀點，本文通過對波蘭的性別平等和 LGBT+權(quán)利外交的案例研究進行了說明?；趯嵶C研究的結(jié)果，本文認為，外交主要是一種去極化的實踐。

【原文】To what extent is diplomacy a depolarizing tool of international society? This article proposesanovel theoretical and empirical focus on depolarization in international politics of gender and sexuality. It

operationalizes the concepts of polarization and depolarization and integrates them with Self/Other theoryininternational relations. It puts forward an argument that the logic of diplomacy is, althoughnot

unequivocally, compatible with the logic of depolarization. The claim and the application of the frameworkare illustrated with a case study of gender equality and LGBT+ rights diplomacies in Poland. Basedontheempirical findings, the article contends that diplomacy is primarily a practice of depolarization. 17. 促進超越國家的法律（Promoting Law Beyond the State）Geoffrey Swenson，英國倫敦大學(xué)城市學(xué)院國際政治系研究員

【摘要】在接受外國援助的國家，根植于習(xí)俗或宗教的非國家司法系統(tǒng)通常處理大多數(shù)法律糾紛。這極大地影響了國際法治推廣的前景，然而學(xué)者們對非國家司法的外交政策關(guān)注甚少。本文探討了2008年至 2018 年間，九個最大的法治援助提供國如何參與非國家司法，揭示了捐助國政策背后的理論和現(xiàn)實。本文提出了一種新的分類方法，詳細描述了捐助者對非國家司法的五種策略（否認、承認、接受、轉(zhuǎn)變和拒絕）和四個目標（司法改革、象征性承認、國家建設(shè)和反叛亂）。接著，通過對政策文件的結(jié)構(gòu)化比較以及對五個具有最全面方法的捐助國的案例研究，探討了九個最大法治援助捐助國如何處理非國家司法問題。捐助者普遍傾向于規(guī)避風(fēng)險的方法，即使這使成功的可能性降低。在某些政策目標（如國家建設(shè)或反叛亂）的推動下，有時會做出更冒險的選擇，但僅在有令人信服的理由和合理的成功前景的情況下才會如此?？傮w而言，主要的法治捐助國表現(xiàn)出規(guī)避風(fēng)險的、表面的政策，有限的利益相關(guān)方參與，未能應(yīng)對法律多元化的復(fù)雜性，且缺乏支持現(xiàn)行政策的證據(jù)?！驹摹縄n countries receiving foreign aid, non-state justice systems rooted in custom or religion generallyhandle most legal disputes. This dramatically influences the prospects of international efforts to promotetherule of law, yet scholars have paid little attention to foreign policy toward non-state justice. This paper

explores how the nine largest rule-of-law-assistance providers engaged non-state justice between 2008and2018, illuminating the theory behind, and the reality of, donor-state policy. It proposes a newclassificatorytypology of donor approaches to non-state justice detailing five strategies (denial, acknowledgment, acceptance, transformation, and rejection) and four goals (judicial reform, symbolic recognition, state-building, and counterinsurgency). It then explores how the nine largest rule-of-law-assistance donor

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states addressed non-state justice through a structured comparison of policy documents as well as casestudies of the five donors with the most comprehensive approaches. Donors strongly favored risk-averseapproaches, even when this made success unlikely. Certain policy goals—such as state-buildingor

counterinsurgency—sometimes prompted riskier choices, but only with a compelling justificationandareasonable prospect of success. Overall, major rule-of-law donors displayed risk-averse, superficial policy, minimal stakeholder engagement, a failure to grapple with the nuances of legal pluralism, and a lackof

evidence to support existing policies. 18. 發(fā)展中國家的代表性和公眾對國際組織的態(tài)度：國際貨幣基金組織治理改革的案例（Developing-Country Representation and Public Attitudes toward International

Organizations: The Case of IMF Governance Reform）

Daniel McDowell，美國雪城大學(xué)麥克斯韋公民與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院麥克斯韋國際事務(wù)顧問委員會教授、大西洋理事會地緣經(jīng)濟中心的高級研究員

David Steinberg，美國約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)副教授

S Erdem Ayta?，土耳其伊斯坦布爾科奇大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系政治學(xué)副教授

Dimitar Gueorguiev，美國雪城大學(xué)麥克斯韋公民與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院政治學(xué)助理教授【摘要】許多著名的國際組織（IOs）在決策結(jié)構(gòu)中存在對發(fā)展中國家的代表性不足的問題。本文認為，發(fā)展中國家的個人更支持與那些賦予其他發(fā)展中國家更大話語權(quán)的國際組織合作。本文假設(shè)，決策權(quán)的平衡通過改善對輸入合法性和輸出合法性的看法來影響對國際組織的支持。實證上，本文聚焦于國際貨幣基金組織（IMF），并在四個發(fā)展中國家——阿根廷、中國、南非和土耳其——進行了原創(chuàng)的調(diào)查實驗。結(jié)果顯示，增加發(fā)展中國家的代表性能夠提高公眾對 IMF 參與的支持。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種效果通過輸入合法性機制起作用，特別是通過改善對程序公平性的看法。研究結(jié)果表明，公眾對國際組織的支持受到這些組織內(nèi)部決策權(quán)平衡的影響。

【 原 文 】 Several prominent international organizations (IOs) maintain decision-making structures that

under-represent developing countries. This paper argues that individuals in developing countries are moresupportive of engaging with IOs that give a greater voice to fellow developing countries. We posit that thebalance of decision-making power influences support for IOs by improving perceptions of bothinput

legitimacy and output legitimacy. Empirically, we focus on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anddrawon original survey experiments in four developing countries: Argentina, China, South Africa, and Turkey. Results reveal that increased representation of developing countries increases public support for IMFparticipation. We also find consistent evidence that this effect works through an input legitimacy mechanism, specifically by improving perceptions of procedural fairness. These findings suggest that public support for

IOs is affected by the balance of decision-making power within these organizations. 19. 網(wǎng)絡(luò)環(huán)境和國際協(xié)議的有效性（Network Context and the Effectiveness of

International Agreements）

Brandon J Kinne，美國加州大學(xué)戴維斯分校政治系副教授

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【摘要】為什么一些國際協(xié)議比其他協(xié)議更能促成合作？本文認為，協(xié)議的網(wǎng)絡(luò)環(huán)境決定了其有效性。本文重點分析雙邊防務(wù)合作協(xié)議（DCAs），這類協(xié)議促進諸如聯(lián)合軍事演習(xí)、維和、武器貿(mào)易以及機密信息共享等防務(wù)活動。由于 DCAs 強調(diào)持續(xù)的合作行動，它們?yōu)樵u估條約的有效性提供了理想的環(huán)境。分析表明，當協(xié)議嵌入于具有廣泛共同第三方聯(lián)系的“朋友的朋友”關(guān)系中時，它們會產(chǎn)生更高水平的合作。本文認為這種網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)是政策趨同的結(jié)果。當國家與共同第三方有聯(lián)系時，它們的政策會變得更加一致，這種一致性反過來降低了合作行動的成本并增加了收益。這一理論和發(fā)現(xiàn)適用于多個問題領(lǐng)域的廣泛合作互動。國際協(xié)議的有效性取決于網(wǎng)絡(luò)環(huán)境。

【原文】Why do some international agreements yield more cooperation than others? I argue that the networkcontext of agreements conditions their effectiveness. I focus on bilateral defense cooperation agreements(DCAs), which promote defense activities like joint military exercises, peacekeeping, arms trade, andthesharing of classified information. Because DCAs emphasize ongoing cooperative actions, they offer anideal

setting to assess treaty effectiveness. The analysis shows that when agreements are embedded in transitive“friend of friend” relations, characterized by extensive ties to common third parties, they generate higher

levels of cooperation. I argue that this network effect is the result of policy convergence. When states shareties with common third parties, their own policies become more closely aligned, and this alignment inturnreduces the costs and increases the benefits of cooperative actions. The theory and findings developedhereapply to a wide array of cooperative interactions across multiple issue areas. The effectiveness of

international agreements depends on network context. 20. 國際沖突、邊境安全和國家能力：英屬印度案例（International Conflict, BorderSecurity, and State Capacity: Case of British India）

Jeongmin Park，美國普林斯頓大學(xué)國際關(guān)系博士研究生

【摘要】主流的戰(zhàn)爭與國家建設(shè)理論將國家發(fā)展歸因于戰(zhàn)爭期間對掠奪性能力的增長。然而，我們對掠奪性能力如何在中央政策層面之外的行政基礎(chǔ)上進行空間擴展了解甚少。本文以作為國家建設(shè)的資產(chǎn)的鐵路為例，重新審視了外部威脅對國家建設(shè)的作用，證據(jù)來源于 19 世紀印度在英俄對抗關(guān)鍵時期的詳細歷史數(shù)據(jù)。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，與俄羅斯的沖突導(dǎo)致了在西北邊境（即英屬印度與俄羅斯之間的緩沖地帶）擴建鐵路，這提升了地方稅務(wù)管理人員的表現(xiàn)。研究結(jié)果表明，外部沖突通過提供物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)來促進國家發(fā)展，從而提高了地理上遙遠邊境的行政效率。

【原文】The dominant approach to war and state-building attributes state development to wartime growthof

extractive capacity. Yet we know little about the administrative foundation through which extractivecapacity is increased spatially, beyond the central policy level. Using railways as an example of astate-building asset, I revisit the role of external threat on state-building, with evidence drawingupondetailed historical data from nineteenth-century India during a crucial period of Anglo–Russo rivalry. I findthat conflict with Russia led to expansion of railways in the Northwest Frontier bordering Afghanistan, thebuffer between British India and Russia, which led to improved performance of local tax administrators. Thefindings suggest that external conflict promotes state development through provision of logistical networksenabling greater administrative efficiency in geographically distant frontiers.

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【編譯：鄒梓軒林怡娉】【責(zé)任編輯：李琬瑩】《外交政策分析》（Foreign Policy Analysis）Foreign Policy Analysis，Vol.20, No.4, October 2024

1. 安全化、威懾與拒止帶來的延伸威懾：烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭（Securitization, Deterrence, andExtended Deterrence by Denial: The War in Ukraine）

Amir Lupovici，特拉維夫大學(xué)政治科學(xué)學(xué)院副教授

【摘要】烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭創(chuàng)造了一種多種行為體提出與回應(yīng)存在層面的威脅的情況。這些侵略性詞藻的事件引發(fā)了一場關(guān)于威脅行動安全化的學(xué)界爭論。進一步說，筆者我界定了五種相互關(guān)聯(lián)的安全化行動——每種回應(yīng)對應(yīng)一種行動——與威懾威脅被插入：這讓我們能追蹤俄羅斯的發(fā)言如何對來自西方和烏克蘭的威脅安全化和對采取這一侵略的特別步驟正當化。這引致烏克蘭創(chuàng)造了一個與接收國際軍事援助有關(guān)的對手——安全化行動。此外，俄羅斯為了威懾它，對一個這場戰(zhàn)爭中潛在的北約直接加入國安全化。北約成員被俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的這些安全化行動牢牢鎖定，最終選擇通過提供武器的特殊手段來推進延伸威懾的拒止戰(zhàn)略。通過傳遞承諾支持烏克蘭的信息，他們意在使俄羅斯確信分配資源打擊烏克蘭是徒勞無功的。因此檢驗這一案例為威懾與安全化理論提供了有趣的結(jié)論?！驹摹縏he war in Ukraine created a situation in which various actors issued and responded to existential

threats. These incidents of aggressive rhetoric invite a scholarly discussion about the securitizing moves of

deterrence. More specifically, I identify five interrelated securitizing moves—each responding to the other

moves—within which deterrent threats are embedded: It allows us to trace how Russian enunciators《外交政策評論》反應(yīng)了這一領(lǐng)域的多元的、比較的和跨學(xué)科的特性，提供了一個研究發(fā)表的開放論壇，加強了理論的、方法論的、地理學(xué)的和學(xué)科界限的概念和觀點的交流?！锻饨徽咴u論》在編輯和評審過程中，強調(diào)所有觀點和方法的學(xué)者都能獲取內(nèi)容，《外交政策評論》是理論和方法論一體化的努力以及深化概念辨析，這一自始至終都寶貴和復(fù)雜的學(xué)術(shù)傳統(tǒng)的源泉。外交政策分析作為一個研究領(lǐng)域，以特定行為體視角著稱。這一根本的、經(jīng)常是潛在的論點是人類的個體或集體行動是國際政治及其變革的來源。用最簡單的話來說，外交政策分析即運用比較或案例分析的方法，研究外交政策決定的進程、影響、原因以及結(jié)果。2024 年該期刊的影響因子為 1.7。

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securitized the threat from the West and Ukraine and justified taking the exceptional measures of an invasion. This resulted in Ukraine making a counter-securitizing move, with the aim to receive international militaryassistance. In addition, the Russians securitized a potential direct involvement of NATO in the war inorder

to deter it. Locked between these securitizing moves of Russia on the one hand and Ukraine on the other, NATO members eventually chose to advance an extended deterrence by denial strategy through the uniquemeans of providing weapons. By delivering the message that they are committed to support Ukraine, theyaim to convince the Russians that allocating resources to fight in Ukraine is a worthless endeavor. Examining this case thus offers interesting implications for both deterrence and securitization theories. 2. 澳大利亞軍事干涉的政黨政治與行政特權(quán)：意識形態(tài)遇上戰(zhàn)略與文化（ThePartyPolitics of Military Intervention in Australia and Executive Prerogatives: IdeologyMeetsStrategy and Culture）

Falk Ostermann，基爾大學(xué)政治學(xué)系社會科學(xué)研究所高級講師

【摘要】作為為了在外交、安全與國防政策上靈活行動而擁有大量行政空間的改良的威斯敏斯特式的體制，盡管澳大利亞不斷進行軍事部署，但澳大利亞國會在海外輸送軍隊上沒有一個官方的說法，即和他的主要盟友美國站在一起。因為工黨-自由黨兩黨共同反對，民主黨與綠黨過去推動給予國會事先投票權(quán)的努力被阻撓。然而，由于不斷增長的政治分裂和軍事部署的政治化，后冷戰(zhàn)政治證明了對武力使用與決策以及兩黨監(jiān)督范圍的抗議。本文聯(lián)系澳大利亞的案例與安全與國防政策的政黨政治的當代學(xué)術(shù)研究，證明了澳大利亞的政黨競爭與其他國家的相似之處。不過，澳大利亞政黨更加強調(diào)在不安全戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境中的決策能力，這也凸顯出辯論和能動性在澳大利亞僅僅某種程度上沿襲了其他威斯敏斯特體系。

【原文】As an adjusted Westminster-style system with large executive room for maneuver in matters of

foreign, security, and defense policies, Australia's parliament does not have a formal say in sendingtroopsabroad despite the continental nation's constant military deployments, i.e., alongside its major ally, theUnited States. Past efforts from Democrats and Greens to push legislation giving parliament ex ante votingrights have been stymied by Labor-Liberal bipartisanism opposing it. However, given increasing political

fragmentation and the politicization of military deployments, post-Cold War politics gives testament todissent on the use of force, decision-making on it, and the reach of oversight between political parties. Linking the Australian case to contemporary scholarship on the party politics of security and defense policy, this article focuses on the party-political component of contestation and explores patterns of dissent andconsensus on the use of force, decision-making, and oversight. Using voting, debate, interviewdata, andtaking stock of the most recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers, the article demonstrates Australianparallels with party-political contestation in other countries. However, it also highlights that debateandagency in Australia do only follow those in other Westminster systems to some extent, while Australianparties put an even higher emphasis on decision-making efficiency in an insecure strategic environment.

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3. 倡導(dǎo)者的框架對齊：在連續(xù)性的面紗下框定外交政策變革（Entrepreneurial FrameAlignment: Framing Foreign Policy Change under a Veil of Continuity）Lars Wikman，瑞典國防大學(xué)戰(zhàn)爭研究系軍事教師

【摘要】倡導(dǎo)者如何框定外交政策變革，從而迫使政治對手默許？在本文中，我說明了外交政策倡導(dǎo)者如何運用六種框架對齊戰(zhàn)略，將政策置于主流話語的范圍內(nèi)，從而獲取政治支持、利用機會窗口以及管理聯(lián)盟。這有助于我們了解倡導(dǎo)者可獲得的框架工具和深化外交政策變革與連續(xù)之間關(guān)系的理解。在實證分析上，主要基于 23 次深度訪談，筆者展示了瑞典外交政策的一次新嘗試——在阿富汗部署特別軍事力量，是如何成功被牢牢框定在外交政策大方向的范圍之內(nèi)，并與先前的外交政策保持一致。這一分析證明了如何通過在敏感和矛盾層面被外交政策連續(xù)性遮蓋時對齊戰(zhàn)略的運用，預(yù)先阻止?jié)撛趯κ帧?/p>

【 原 文 】 How can entrepreneurs frame foreign policy change so it forces political oppositionintoacquiescence? In this article, I show how foreign policy entrepreneurs use six frame alignment strategies tosituate policy within the confines of the dominating discourse in ways that generate political support, exploit

windows of opportunity, and manage coalitions. This contributes to our knowledge of the available framingtools for entrepreneurs and advances our understanding of the relationship between change and continuityinforeign policy. In the empirical analysis, based predominantly on twenty-three in-depth interviews, I showhow a new venture of Swedish foreign policy, the deployment of Special Forces to Afghanistan, wassuccessfully framed firmly within the confines of the foreign policy orientation and in line with previouspolicies. The analysis demonstrates how potential opposition was forestalled through the use of alignment

strategies as sensitive and controversial aspects were masked as foreign policy continuity. 4. 貨幣約束：解釋美國金融制裁選擇性的強制力（The Currency Constraint: Explainingthe Selective Enforcement of US Financial Sanctions）

Navin R Bapat, 北卡羅來納大學(xué)教堂山國際關(guān)系學(xué)教授

Bryan R Early, 奧爾巴尼大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授兼研究副院長

Julia Grauvogel, 德國全球與地區(qū)研究所高級研究員

Katja B Kleinberg，紐約州立大學(xué)賓漢姆頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授

【摘要】經(jīng)濟制裁仍然是最廣泛使用的外交政策工具之一。同時，它們的強制力經(jīng)常是不完全的和有選擇的。如果發(fā)起國關(guān)注制裁的有效性，制裁措施的變化會造成反效果。我們認為發(fā)起國面臨一個當下有效脅迫與未來脅迫能力之間的取舍。我們開發(fā)了一個探索發(fā)起國的混合動機的正式模型，例如美國對銀行強制執(zhí)行金融制裁。通過運用 2003 到 2014 年間美國發(fā)起強制行動以支持對伊朗的制裁的數(shù)據(jù)以及三個解釋性的案例，我們評估了這一假說，即當美元地位與可選擇的結(jié)算體系強相關(guān)時，制裁強制力更強。我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)支持了這一假說。

【原文】Economic sanctions remain one of the most widely used foreign policy tools. At the same time, their enforcement is often incomplete and selective. If sender states are concerned about sanctionseffectiveness, variation in enforcement is counterproductive. We argue that sender states face a trade-off

between effective coercion in the present and the ability to use coercion in the future. We develop a formal

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model to explore the mixed incentives of senders such as the United States in enforcing their financial

sanctions against banks. Using data on US enforcement actions taken in support of the Iranian sanctionsregime from 2003 to 2014 and three illustrative case examples, we evaluate the hypothesis that sanctionsenforcement should be greater when the position of the US dollar is strong relative to alternative settlement

mechanisms. Our findings support this contention. 5. 美國的外交訪問和盟友的軍事開支（US Diplomatic Visits and Allies' MilitarySpending）

James D Kim，華盛頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】本文發(fā)展并檢驗了兩個關(guān)于同盟保護國的外交訪問是怎樣影響被保護者軍事開支的競爭性解釋。其一認為，同盟保護國的訪問會讓盟國產(chǎn)生安全感，從而減少盟國的防務(wù)開支。（安全感假說）。其二認為，這樣的訪問將加強與盟國的伙伴關(guān)系，促使同盟國增加負擔(dān)分享。（伙伴關(guān)系假說）。筆者通過分析 1950 到 2007 年美國總統(tǒng)對盟友的訪問和盟友軍事開支的年度百分比變化，檢驗了這些假說。筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)了支持安全感假說的證據(jù)，表明美國總統(tǒng)外交訪問與盟友接下來幾年更低的軍事開支聯(lián)系在一起。而且，筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)當訪問在總統(tǒng)任期的頭三年完成時，消極效應(yīng)是首要的，就算訪問是在總統(tǒng)任期的最后一年也不會導(dǎo)致盟友負擔(dān)分享的顯著變化。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)凸顯了同盟保護國的旅行外交在為軍事盟國提供安全感方面的角色，以及它對盟國外交政策產(chǎn)生的非預(yù)期的后果：減少對聯(lián)盟的貢獻?！驹摹縏his article develops and tests two competing arguments regarding how a patron's diplomatic visitsinfluence the military spending of protégés. One argument posits that a patron's visits will decreaseallies' defense spending by producing reassurance (reassurance hypothesis). Another perspective contendsthat such visits will increase allies' burden sharing by fostering allied partnerships (partnership hypothesis). I

test these hypotheses by analyzing US presidential visits to allies and the annual percentage changes inallies' military spending from 1950 to 2007. I find evidence supporting the reassurance hypothesis, indicatingthat diplomatic visits by US presidents are associated with lower military expenditures by allies thefollowing year. Furthermore, I find that the negative effect is primarily observed when visits are made inthefirst 3 years of a presidential term, while visits in the final year of a presidency do not result in significant

changes in allied burden sharing. The findings highlight the role of a patron's travel diplomacy in providingreassurance in military alliances, as well as its unintended consequence for protégés' foreign policy: reducedalliance contribution. 6.一場全新的“進攻狂熱”？中美人工智能軍事應(yīng)用的精英視角（ANew“Cult of theOffensive?” Elite Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence in Military Affairs in the UnitedStates and the People's Republic of China）

Zachary Selden，佛羅里達大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授

【摘要】人工智能（AI）的軍事應(yīng)用目前極大地受限于物流、運輸、偵查和其他支持部門。不過，美國和中國在發(fā)展自主戰(zhàn)斗裝置和其他 AI 的進攻應(yīng)用上，取得了重大進步。AI 在軍事事務(wù)中的多方面

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應(yīng)用和應(yīng)用的模糊性，可以被視作增加或削減了進攻性軍事行動的相對成本。因此，至關(guān)重要的問題并非對 AI 新興使用傾向于進攻還是防御的技術(shù)確定，而在于一個關(guān)于 AI 如何被決策者理解的看法。與一戰(zhàn)時代的進攻狂熱相類似，當對抗的期望上升時，模糊不清的新興科技可能導(dǎo)致掌權(quán)者關(guān)注這一技術(shù)的進攻優(yōu)勢。本文考察了 2014 到 2022 年中美圍繞 AI 軍事應(yīng)用的政策精英話語。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)在這一時期，圍繞 AI 軍事應(yīng)用的精英討論在兩國都更關(guān)注 AI 的進攻應(yīng)用而非防御。雖然這絕不是決定性的，但它表明人們對進攻和防御的理解平衡可能正朝著不穩(wěn)定的方向發(fā)展?！驹摹縏he use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military affairs is largely limited to logistics, transport, reconnaissance, and other support functions at present. Yet, the United States and the People's Republicof

China (PRC) are also making significant progress in developing autonomous combat vehicles andother

offensive applications of AI. The ambiguous nature and multifaceted applications of AI in militaryaffairscould be seen as either increasing or decreasing the relative cost of offensive military action. The critical

question, therefore, is not a technical determination of whether the emerging uses of AI favor the offensiveor defensive force, but rather an assessment of how AI is perceived by policymakers. Similar to the WorldWar I era cult of the offensive, ambiguous emerging technology may drive leaders to focus on the offensiveadvantages of that technology when expectations of conflict are rising. This paper examines the policyelitediscourse surrounding the military applications of AI in both the United States and the PRCbetween2014and 2022. It finds that over this period, elite discussion of the use of AI in military affairs has shifted inbothstates in ways that indicate more focus on the offensive rather than defensive applications of this emergingtechnology. While by no means determinative, it is an indicator that perceptions of the offense–defensebalance may be moving in a destabilizing direction. 7. 利益、需要還是聲望？卡塔爾對外援助的決定因素（Interest, Need, or Reputation?Determinants of Qatar's Foreign Aid）

Bulent Aras, 薩班哲大學(xué)藝術(shù)與社會科學(xué)學(xué)院的教授

Burcu Fazlioglu, 托比經(jīng)濟技術(shù)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

Majed Al Ansari，卡塔爾外交大臣兼副首相顧問

【摘要】除了對中國、印度、巴西和土耳其等大國的研究外，有關(guān)新興捐助國的對外援助貢獻的文獻缺乏原始數(shù)據(jù)和實證分析。本文通過提供 2014 到 2021 年間，卡塔爾這一有韌性的且相對較小的新興捐助國的對外援助配給的新穎、詳盡的數(shù)據(jù)集，從而填補了既有文獻的這一空白。筆者稱之為卡塔爾援助數(shù)據(jù)庫，數(shù)據(jù)庫的內(nèi)容概括了卡塔爾國際援助的特點。為了說明數(shù)據(jù)集的有效性，筆者調(diào)查了卡塔爾對外援助是否旨在滿足捐助國利益、接受國需要以及別的因素。筆者的實證發(fā)現(xiàn)確認，盡管卡塔爾的援助配給決定優(yōu)先考慮接受國的需要，但它的援助條件更多的取決于卡塔爾在目標國的對外政策利益。

【原文】The literature on the motivations behind emerging donors' foreign aid contributions—withtheexception of larger countries such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey—lacks original data and empirical

analyses. This article addresses this gap by providing a novel, detailed dataset of the foreign aid allocationsof one resilient, relatively small emerging donor, Qatar, for the period from 2014 to 2021. The contents of

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our database, which we dub Qatar Aid Database, encapsulate the features of Qatar's international aid. Toillustrate our dataset's efficacy, we investigate whether Qatar's foreign aid operations aimto satisfydonor

interests, recipient needs, or something else. Our empirical findings affirm that although Qatar's aidallocation decisions prioritize recipient needs, its aid provision depends more on Qatar's foreign policyinterests in the targeted countries. 【編譯：張澤宇】【責(zé)任編輯：李琬瑩】《世界政治》（World Politics）

World Politics，Vol.76, No.3, 2024

1. 工業(yè)化與民主政體（Industrialization and Democracy）Sam Van Noort，普林斯頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)系與公共與國際事務(wù)學(xué)院講師

【摘要】本文提出了關(guān)于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與民主關(guān)系的新理論。作者主張，制造業(yè)就業(yè)占比的增加，即更高水平的工業(yè)化，使得大規(guī)模動員更有可能發(fā)生且鎮(zhèn)壓成本更高。這反過來增強了大眾相對于專制精英的力量，從而提高了實現(xiàn)民主的可能性。對 145 個國家在 170 年（1845-2015）期間的制造業(yè)就業(yè)新數(shù)據(jù)的分析表明，即使考慮收入、平等、教育和城市化等因素，工業(yè)化仍然與民主呈顯著正相關(guān)性。與其他許多社會經(jīng)濟決定因素不同，工業(yè)化的影響在國家和時間固定效應(yīng)下依然穩(wěn)健，且對民主的過渡和鞏固均有影響，無論短期還是長期皆有體現(xiàn)，且在 1945 年以后同樣顯著。使用新的工具變量及若干敏感性分析的結(jié)果表明，這種相關(guān)性不太可能是偽相關(guān)。

【原文】This article provides a new theory about the relationship between economic development anddemocracy. The author argues that a larger share of employment in manufacturing—that is, a higher level of

industrialization—makes mass mobilization both more likely to occur and more costly to suppress. This in《世界政治》（World Politics）創(chuàng)刊于 1948 年，是享譽國際的政治科學(xué)季刊，內(nèi)容涵蓋國際關(guān)系和政治科學(xué)的各個領(lǐng)域，其主編是 Deborah J. Yashar。自 1948 年以來，《世界政治》發(fā)表了國際關(guān)系、比較政治、政治理論、外交政策和現(xiàn)代化方面的分析和理論文章、評論文章和研究筆記。它不發(fā)表嚴格的歷史材料、時事文章、政策文章或新聞性質(zhì)的敘述。政治學(xué)家和國際關(guān)系專業(yè)的學(xué)生轉(zhuǎn)向世界政治以掌握該領(lǐng)域的最新理論發(fā)展。2024 年該期刊的影響因子為 5.1。

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turn increases the power of the masses vis-à-vis autocratic elites, making democracy more likely. Novel

manufacturing employment data for 145 countries over 170 years (1845–2015) suggest that industrializationis strongly correlated with democracy, even after accounting for income, equality, education, andurbanization. Unlike with many other socioeconomic determinants, the effect of industrialization is robust tocountry and time fixed effects, occurs on both transitions to and consolidations of democracy, is present inboth the short and long run, and is equally large after 1945. Results from a novel instrument and several

sensitivity analyses suggest that the correlation is unlikely to be spurious. 2. 歐 洲 社 會 民 主 與 工 人 階 級 代 表 的 產(chǎn) 生 （ Social Democracy and the BirthofWorking-Class Representation in Europe）

Maayan Mor，杜蘭大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

Carles Boix，普林斯頓大學(xué)羅伯特·加勒特政治學(xué)教授、政治與公共事務(wù)教授【摘要】盡管對西歐議員經(jīng)濟背景的興趣日益增長，1945 年前出身于工人階級的議員人數(shù)的演變尚未得到系統(tǒng)研究。作者通過分析英格蘭和威爾士（1832-1944）、德國（1871-1930）以及挪威（1906-1936）的數(shù)據(jù)，證明了在選舉壁壘降低時工人階級議員更有可能當選，且?guī)缀跛泄と穗A級議員都隸屬于社會主義政黨。作者進一步探討了決定工人選舉成功的條件，使用了關(guān)于挪威1906 年至1936 年所有候選人、選區(qū)職業(yè)分布和工會化水平的數(shù)據(jù)。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，社會主義政黨要么在工會化水平較高、競爭不激烈的選舉中提名工人候選人，要么在競爭激烈、但黨派勝選可能性未定的選舉中提名工人。此外，作者通過德國和英格蘭及威爾士的議員數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)了類似的模式。本文討論了民主化、社會民主的興起和工人階級數(shù)量代表性的研究意義。

【原文】Despite the growing interest in the economic backgrounds of mps in Western Europe, the evolutionof working-class numerical representation before 1945 has not been systematically studied. Using data fromEngland and Wales (1832–1944), Germany (1871–1930), and Norway (1906–1936), the authors showboththat working-class mps were elected when barriers were lowered and that almost all working-classparliamentarians were affiliated with socialist parties. The authors further probe the conditions that

determined the electoral success of workers using data about all candidates, constituencies’ occupational

profile, and unionization in Norway between 1906 and 1936. They find that socialist parties nominatedworkers either in relatively uncompetitive elections in which unionization was high or in competitive racesin which the party’s victory was possible but not guaranteed. Using information about mps in GermanyandEngland and Wales, the authors find similar patterns. The article discusses the implications for researchabout democratization, the rise of social democracy, and the numerical representation of workers. 3. 抗擊疫情還是操縱數(shù)據(jù)？民主、國家能力與 COVID-19 大流行（Fighting the DiseaseorManipulating the Data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the COVID-19 Pandemic）Carl Henrik Knutsen，奧斯陸大學(xué)政治學(xué)系的教授

Palina Kolvani，奧斯陸大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系博士研究員

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【摘要】在本文中，筆者討論并分析了政權(quán)類型和國家能力如何塑造了政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人應(yīng)對新冠疫情的能力和動機。他們提出，兩者在緩解疫情的不利后果（如死亡）以及如實報告這些后果方面存在互補關(guān)系?；谌蜃钚碌墓俜綀蟾娴男鹿谒劳鰯?shù)據(jù)和根據(jù)超額死亡率估計的死亡數(shù)據(jù)，作者提供了支持其論點不同含義的證據(jù)。從經(jīng)驗上看，民主國家官方報告的死亡人數(shù)遠高于專制國家，這是由于專制國家報告不足造成的。在高能力國家中，民主國家的新冠死亡人數(shù)低于專制國家。國家能力通常有助于減少死亡和瞞報，但這一關(guān)系在民主國家中更為明顯。結(jié)合民主與高國家能力的國家經(jīng)歷了更少的新冠死亡，并且對疫情后果提供了更準確的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。

【原文】In this article, the authors discuss and analyze how regime type and state capacity shape the abilitiesand incentives of political leaders to respond to covid-19. They suggest that a complementary relationshipexists between democracy and state capacity, both in terms of mitigating the adverse consequences of thepandemic, such as deaths, and the honest reporting of these consequences. Using a recent global data set onofficially reported covid-19 deaths and estimated deaths based on excess mortality, the authors present

evidence that supports different implications from their argument. Empirically, democracies have muchhigher officially reported death tolls than do autocracies, a result driven by underreporting in autocracies. Inhigh-capacity states, democracies have fewer covid-19 deaths than do autocracies. State capacity generallyseems to mitigate both deaths and underreporting, but these relationships are stronger in democracies. Countries that combine democracy with high state capacity experience fewer covid-19 deaths and providemore accurate tolls of the pandemic’s consequences. 4. 民主焦慮時代的概念混淆：近來傾向及其弊端（Concept Misformation inthe AgeofDemocratic Anxiety: Recent Temptations and Their Downsides）Kurt Weyland，德克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校文學(xué)院政府學(xué)系教授

【摘要】盡管有喬瓦尼·薩托利（Giovanni Sartori）響亮的提醒，但當代學(xué)術(shù)界仍然出現(xiàn)了新一輪的概念延展現(xiàn)象，這在諸如“政變”和“法西斯主義”等術(shù)語的寬泛使用中尤為明顯。這種概念蠕變反映了近幾十年來的規(guī)范演進，它排除了真正的法西斯主義，阻止了全面政變。因為這些規(guī)范進展促使一些不法行為者通過形式上的民主程序來追求其非民主目標，這導(dǎo)致了概念邊界的模糊化。本文提出，在研究這一灰色地帶時，學(xué)者可能會傾向于過度使用夸張的術(shù)語，因為對民主面臨的新威脅的擔(dān)憂促使人們轉(zhuǎn)向公共知識分子和民主參與。此外，社交媒體的普及加劇了爭奪公眾注意力的競爭，這可能助長了對鮮明警告的偏好。作者認為，這種概念延展削弱了學(xué)術(shù)研究所需的清晰性和準確性，而這種不精確性對于學(xué)者的規(guī)范性關(guān)切也可能適得其反?？鋸埿g(shù)語的過度使用可能會扭曲問題判斷，加劇社會兩極化，從而強化當代民主所面臨的危險，而這一危險主要源于非自由主義的民粹主義所體現(xiàn)的具體挑戰(zhàn)。

【 原 文 】 Despite Giovanni Sartori’s famous warning, contemporary academia has seen a newbout of

conceptual stretching, as evident in the loose, expansive usage of terms such as coup and fascism. Thisconcept creep reflects the normative progress of recent decades, which has ruled out true fascismanddeterred full-scale coups. Because these normative advances have induced remaining nefarious actors topursue their undemocratic goals through formally democratic procedures, ambiguity has blurred conceptual

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boundaries. The article posits that when examining this gray area, scholars may be tempted to overusedramatic terms because concern about new threats to democracy has motivated a turn to publicintellectualism and democratic engagement. Moreover, the proliferation of social media has fueledstiff

competition for public attention, which may have helped to create a penchant for stark warnings. The author

argues that the resulting conceptual stretching undermines the clarity and accuracy required for academicscholarship and that such imprecision can also be counterproductive for scholars’ normative concerns. Theoveruse of dramatic terms risks distorting problem diagnosis, exacerbating polarization, and thus reinforcingthe danger facing contemporary democracy, which arises primarily from the specific challenges that illiberal

populism poses. 【編譯：張澤宇】【責(zé)任編輯：李琬瑩】World Politics, 75th Anniversary, Advanced Access

1. 全球治理：經(jīng)濟不平等與虛假信息的雙重挑戰(zhàn)（GLOBAL GOVERNANCE: TheTwin Challenges of Economic Inequality and Disinformation）Lisa L. Martin，威斯康星大學(xué)麥迪遜分校政治學(xué)系教授

【摘要】現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系由正式和非正式的全球治理制度塑造，而其中大部分制度都屬于自由國際秩序的范疇。與國內(nèi)制度相似，這些國際制度同樣面臨著虛假信息泛濫與深入滲透帶來的挑戰(zhàn)。而自由國際秩序?qū)鴥?nèi)經(jīng)濟不平等加劇問題的忽視，又進一步助長了對虛假信息的需求。因此，虛假信息與不平等成為全球治理面臨的兩大挑戰(zhàn)。

【原文】Modern international interactions are structured by institutions of global governance, both formal

and informal. Most of these institutions are encompassed by the liberal international order. Like domesticinstitutions, these international institutions are challenged by the prevalence and depth of disinformation. The demand for disinformation, in turn, has been fed by the order’s lack of attention to growing domesticeconomic inequality. Disinformation and inequality thus present twin challenges to global governance. 2. 東南亞與《世界政治》（Southeast Asia and World Politics）Thomas B. Pepinsky，康奈爾大學(xué)政府學(xué)系教授，布魯金斯學(xué)會非駐高級研究員【摘要】本文回顧了自 20 世紀 70 年代中期以來，發(fā)表于《世界政治》期刊上有關(guān)東南亞的研究。文章基于東南亞區(qū)域研究領(lǐng)域中常見的關(guān)于該地區(qū)性質(zhì)的辯論，指出東南亞政治研究的兩個變化軸線：其一是對該地區(qū)聯(lián)通性與自主性的強調(diào)；其二是對單個國家經(jīng)驗與共同區(qū)域動態(tài)的關(guān)注。以這種方式描述《世界政治》中關(guān)于東南亞的研究，有助于我們更全面地理解過去五十年間區(qū)域研究與政治學(xué)之間的關(guān)系。

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【原文】This essay reviews research on Southeast Asia that has appeared in World Politics, with a focus onarticles published since the mid-1970s. Drawing on debates about the nature of the region that are commonlyfound within the field of Southeast Asian area studies, the essay identifies two axes along which Southeast

Asian politics research varies: in its emphasis on the connectedness versus autonomy of the region, andinitsfocus on individual country experiences versus common regional dynamics. Characterizing the Southeast

Asia–focused research in World Politics in this way helps us to understand more generally the relationshipbetween area studies and political science over the past fifty years. 3. 土地/勞動力比率、公民身份與移民：對移民體制政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)中隱性關(guān)聯(lián)的探索（Land/Labor Ratios, Citizenship, and Migrants: Exploring the Hidden Links inthePolitical Economy of Immigration Regimes）

Melle Scholten，美國弗吉尼亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士候選人

David Leblang，美國弗吉尼亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授，米勒公共事務(wù)中心（Miller Center of Public Affairs）主任

【摘要】在主權(quán)國家內(nèi)，公民身份可以說是區(qū)分內(nèi)部群體與外部群體最重要的政治標志。因此，關(guān)于誰能夠享受公民身份利益的問題往往會引發(fā)分配沖突。當一個國家有大量移民涌入時，這種沖突便會加劇。鑒于公民身份的重要性及其爭議性，那么決定其獲取的規(guī)則又從何而來？本文的出發(fā)點是承認移民是流動的勞動力。從這個角度來看，精英階層受益于生產(chǎn)性勞動力供給增加的國家——即那些具有較高土地/勞動力比率的國家——更有可能采取吸引移民的政策，如放寬入籍規(guī)則，包括出生公民權(quán)。本文通過統(tǒng)計證據(jù)來說明這一論點的合理性，并提出了進一步探討這一關(guān)鍵問題的路徑?！驹摹縒ithin sovereign states citizenship is arguably the most important political marker of in- andoutsiders. As a result, questions about who gets to reap the benefits of citizenship often result indistributional conflict. This conflict becomes inflamed when a country goes through a period of significant

inward migration. Given that citizenship is so important and so contentious, from where do the rulesgoverning its acquisition come? Our starting point is the acknowledgment that migrants are mobile labor. From this perspective, countries in which elites benefit from an increased supply of productive labor—that is, those with high land/labor ratios—will be more likely to adopt policies that attract migrants, such as easier

naturalization rules, including birthright citizenship. We illustrate the plausibility of our argument withsomestatistical evidence and suggest some avenues to further explore this crucial question. 4. 民主 與經(jīng) 濟增 長：理 論爭 議與實 證貢 獻（Democracy and Economic Growth:Theoretical Debates and Empirical Contributions）

Joel W. Simmons，喬治城大學(xué)埃德蒙·A·沃爾什外事學(xué)院副教授

【摘要】民主是促進經(jīng)濟增長的促進還是阻礙因素？本文簡要回顧了圍繞這一長期存在問題的理論和實證研究，并指出了一些未來研究中富有前景的方向。

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【原文】Is democracy a boon for economic growth or a hindrance? This brief essay reviews the theoretical

and empirical contributions to this age-old question and highlights some potentially fruitful avenues for

future research. 5. 民主倒退、韌性與抵抗（Democratic Backsliding, Resilience, and Resistance）Rachel Beatty Riedl，康奈爾大學(xué)政府系教授；Paul Friesen，康奈爾大學(xué)布魯克公共政策學(xué)院全球民主中心博士后研究員；Jennifer McCoy，佐治亞州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授；Kenneth Roberts，康奈爾大學(xué)政府系教授

【摘要】本文探討了民主倒退研究中的兩個重要問題：民主韌性與政治極化。文章首先提出了一系列方法論決策點，旨在提高當前圍繞民主倒退衡量標準以及民主復(fù)蘇可能性辯論的清晰度。接著，文章對民主倒退的路徑進行了理論與實證分析，分析了在何種條件下倒退發(fā)生、哪些特定行為者參與其中，以及在韌性來源和抵抗策略的支持下，民主復(fù)蘇的可能性。文章還探討了政治極化在民主倒退中的作用，強調(diào)了政治能動性與制度杠桿在政權(quán)結(jié)局中的共同重要性。文章認為，政權(quán)的結(jié)局并非取決于先決條件，尤其并非是發(fā)展水平。

【原文】This article assesses two next-level questions in the study of democratic backsliding: democraticresilience and political polarization. It first advances a set of methodological decision points to improveclarity in contemporary debates surrounding democratic backsliding measurement and the possibilityof

identifying moments of democratic recovery. It then moves to a theoretical and empirical assessment of

pathways by which democratic backsliding takes place, under what conditions, which specific actors areinvolved, and what opportunities exist for democratic recovery given sources of resilience and strategies of

resistance. The authors examine the role of political polarization in backsliding and highlight the combinedimportance of political agency and institutional levers for regime outcomes. The authors argue that regimeoutcomes are not predetermined by antecedent conditions, and particularly not by the level of development. 6. 相 互保 證擾 亂： 全球 化、 安全 與脫 鉤的 風(fēng)險 （Mutually Assured Disruption:Globalization, Security, and the Dangers of Decoupling）

Thomas J. Christensen，哥倫比亞大學(xué)國際與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院教授

【摘要】過去幾十年間，亞太地區(qū)跨國生產(chǎn)的演變一直是維持和平的重要力量。全球化的批評者以及中美經(jīng)濟脫鉤的支持者主張的政策不僅會損害全球經(jīng)濟，還會增加軍事沖突的可能性。本文重點探討了中美經(jīng)濟接觸與東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化帶來的國家安全利益。政府為保護國家安全、增強供應(yīng)鏈韌性而進行的干預(yù)是必要的，但其范圍應(yīng)有所限制，以避免對促進增長和遏制戰(zhàn)爭的復(fù)合經(jīng)濟相互依賴關(guān)系造成根本性破壞。

【原文】The evolution of transnational production in the Asia-Pacific over the past few decades has beenaforce for peace. Critics of globalization and proponents of US-China economic decoupling advocate policiesthat would not only harm the global economy but would increase the likelihood of military conflict. Thisarticle focuses on the national security benefits of US-China economic engagement and the regional

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economic integration of East Asia. Government interventions to protect national security and buildmoreresilience in supply chains are needed but should be limited in scope so as to avoid fundamental damagetothe complex economic interdependence that has fostered growth and helped to deter war. 7. 革命研究的演變（The Evolving Study of Revolution）Mark R. Beissinger，普林斯頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

【摘要】隨著革命實踐的發(fā)展，革命理論也在不斷演變。當前關(guān)于革命的文獻大多關(guān)注爭議性過程。但我們需要使用更全面的方法——更好地結(jié)合歷史，跨越文獻中的分歧，思考革命前后的情況，并將革命進程與支撐它們的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素進行相互聯(lián)系。

【原文】As the practice of revolution has evolved, so too have theories of revolution. Much of the current

literature on revolutions focuses on contentious processes. But a need exists to take a more holistic approach—one that better incorporates history, thinks across divides in the literature, contemplates what precedes andfollows revolution, and places revolutionary processes and the structural factors that underpin themintodialogue with one another. 8. 自由民主國家中不平等與再分配的比較政治（The Comparative Politics of Inequalityand Redistribution in Liberal Democracies）

Jonas Pontusson, 日內(nèi)瓦大學(xué)比較政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】本文回顧了關(guān)于政府為何未能補償中低收入公民因收入不平等加劇而遭受的損失的辯論，主張采用一種結(jié)合需求方和供給方因素的視角，并將政策響應(yīng)中的收入偏差視為隨國家和時間變化的變量。

【原文】Reviewing the debate on why governments have failed to compensate low- and middle-incomecitizens for rising income inequality, this essay argues for a perspective that integrates demand-sideandsupply-side considerations and treats income bias in policy responsiveness as variable across countries andover time. 9. 適應(yīng)性政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)：邁向新范式（Adaptive Political Economy: TowardaNewParadigm）

Yuen Yuen Ang，約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)阿爾弗雷德·錢德勒政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授【摘要】傳統(tǒng)政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)范式通常將具有生命力、復(fù)雜、適應(yīng)性強的社會系統(tǒng)視為機器般的對象。這種方式導(dǎo)致政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)家使用機械模型過度簡化龐大復(fù)雜的社會進程，或者完全忽略它們。如此，便導(dǎo)致了發(fā)展中的理論困境、議程瑣碎或公共政策失效。本文提出了一種替代范式：適應(yīng)性政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)。該范式承認社會系統(tǒng)是復(fù)雜的，而非繁雜的；復(fù)雜性是可以有序的，而非混亂的；社會科學(xué)家應(yīng)該去發(fā)展概念、方法和理論，以闡明復(fù)雜性的秩序，而非將其過度簡化。文章通過繪制經(jīng)濟和制度變革的

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共同演化過程，展示了適應(yīng)性政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)的一種應(yīng)用場景。此方法得出了新穎且重要的結(jié)論，而這正是機械的線性發(fā)展模型所忽略的，例如，建立和維持市場的制度具有不同的表現(xiàn)與功能?！驹摹縏he conventional paradigm in political economy routinely treats living, complex, adaptive social

systems as machine-like objects. This treatment has driven political economists to oversimplify big, complexsocial processes using mechanical models, or to ignore them altogether. In development, this has ledtotheoretical dead ends, trivial agendas, or failed public policies. This article proposes an alternative paradigm:

adaptive political economy. It recognizes that social systems are complex, not complicated; complexitycanbe ordered, not messy; and social scientists should be developing the concepts, methods, and theories toilluminate the order of complexity, rather than oversimplifying it. The author illustrates one applicationof

adaptive political economy by mapping the coevolution of economic and institutional change. This approachyields fresh, important conclusions that mechanical, linear models of development have missed, includingthat market-building institutions look and function differently from market-sustaining ones. 10. 歐洲內(nèi)外國家形成的歷史考察（Historical State Formation Within and BeyondEurope）

Lisa Blaydes，斯坦福大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授，主要研究領(lǐng)域為比較政治和國際關(guān)系；Anna Grzymala-Busse，斯坦福大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

【摘要】國家形成是比較政治學(xué)中的一個關(guān)鍵議題。大量具有影響力的文獻都聚焦于早期現(xiàn)代歐洲政治分裂的背景下，戰(zhàn)爭對國家鞏固以及代表制度和稅收制度發(fā)展的促進作用。近年來，學(xué)者們通過強調(diào)其他形式的競爭、國家間合作與效仿對國家建設(shè)的影響，以及交戰(zhàn)國統(tǒng)治者之外更廣泛社會行為者的影響，拓寬了這一視角。本文回顧了有關(guān)國家形成的最新學(xué)術(shù)成果，這些研究表明，無論是在歐洲還是世界其他地區(qū)，傳統(tǒng)的“戰(zhàn)爭—國家”路徑僅僅是國家鞏固的眾多方式之一。本文強調(diào)了地理因素的重要性，并引入了對于國家-社會關(guān)系的組織形式以及區(qū)域和全球經(jīng)濟互動對國家形成影響的新見解。

【原文】State formation is a critical concern for comparative politics. Much of the most influential literaturehas focused on the politically fragmented setting of early modern Europe, where warmaking fosteredstateconsolidation and the development of institutions of representation and taxation. More recently, scholarshave expanded this perspective by emphasizing the state-building implications of alternative forms of

competition, interstate cooperation, and emulation, as well as the influence of a broader set of societal actorsbeyond belligerent rulers. The authors review recent scholarship on state formation that suggests that thecanonical bellicist path is only one pathway to state consolidation, both in Europe and beyond. This articledraws attention to the importance of geography and to new insights regarding the organizationof

state-society relations and the influence of regional and global economic engagements on state formation. 11. 政府應(yīng)對氣候變化的策略（Government Responses to Climate Change）Evan Lieberman，麻省理工學(xué)院政治科學(xué)系教授

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Michael Ross，加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校政治學(xué)系和環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所教授【摘要】社會科學(xué)家在定義和衡量政府減少溫室氣體排放的努力時，應(yīng)當更加審慎。本文強調(diào)了氣候政策三個維度之間的關(guān)鍵區(qū)別：政府所作的承諾、政府采取的行動以及這些行動產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果。此外，作者詳細闡述了衡量這些維度所要面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，并討論了不同衡量策略的權(quán)衡，包括它們在滿足公認的衡量有效性標準方面的表現(xiàn)。作者還指出了進一步研究的前景。

【原文】Social scientists should be more deliberate in how they define and measure government efforts toreduce greenhouse gas emissions. The authors highlight key distinctions among three dimensions of climatepolicy: the commitments made by governments, the actions that governments take, and the outcomes theyproduce. In turn, the authors detail the challenges of measuring these dimensions, and discuss the tradeoffsof alternative measurement strategies, including how well they meet the accepted standards for measurement

validity. The authors also identify promising avenues for further research. 12. 民主化的國際維度（International Dimensions of Democratization）Jon C.W. Pevehouse，威斯康星大學(xué)麥迪遜分校政治科學(xué)與公共事務(wù)系教授Caileigh Glenn，麻省理工學(xué)院安全研究項目和哈佛肯尼迪學(xué)院國際安全項目博士后【摘要】自 20 世紀 70 年代以來，國際因素對民主化進程的影響日益受到學(xué)者與政策制定者的關(guān)注。學(xué)者們指出國際因素可以通過多種機制影響民主的過渡與鞏固。盡管這些論點大多強調(diào)積極影響，但后冷戰(zhàn)時期的樂觀情緒已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閷H威權(quán)主義來源和民主倒退的擔(dān)憂。本文構(gòu)建了一個分析框架，以梳理我們對于國際力量與民主化之間關(guān)系的認知，并概述了若干尚待解答的問題。然而當前研究仍面臨多項挑戰(zhàn)，其中包括如何最佳地評估將國際進程與行為體同民主（及民主化）聯(lián)系起來的機制；而其他挑戰(zhàn)則涉及民主倒退對民主過渡構(gòu)成的威脅。文章最后呼吁將現(xiàn)有關(guān)于國際因素與民主關(guān)系的理論框架與當前關(guān)于威權(quán)主義與民主倒退現(xiàn)象的研究浪潮進行更加深入的整合?！驹摹縎ince the 1970s, international influences on democratization have received increasing attentionfrom scholars and policymakers. Scholars pointed to multiple mechanisms by which international factorscould influence the transition to and the consolidation of democracy. While the arguments mostly pointedtopositive influences, the optimism of the post–Cold War era have given way to concern about international

sources of authoritarianism and democratic backsliding. The authors provide a framework for thinkingabout

what we know about international forces and democratization, outlining several unanswered questions. Several research challenges remain, including how to best assess mechanisms linking international processesand actors to democracy (and democratization); while others concern threats to those democratic transitionsvia democratic backsliding. The article concludes by calling for more integration of existing theoretical

frameworks on international factors and democracy with the current wave of research on authoritarianismand democratic backsliding. 13. 釋放怪獸？發(fā)達資本主義民主國家中知識經(jīng)濟的成因與后果（Unleashing a Monster?

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Causes and Consequences of the Knowledge Economy in Advanced CapitalistDemocracies）

Torben Iversen，哈佛大學(xué)政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

【摘要】過去三十年間，經(jīng)濟不平等與右翼民粹主義的興起引發(fā)了關(guān)于民主與發(fā)達資本主義關(guān)系的熱烈討論。一種主流觀點認為，這些問題的根源在于全球資本與富人權(quán)力的不斷膨脹，其最早體現(xiàn)在20 世紀 80 年代與 90 年代廣泛推行的新自由主義改革中。此觀點認為資本主義顛覆了民主；然而本文認為是民主轉(zhuǎn)變了資本主義，正是這一轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭涨暗姆睒s奠定了基礎(chǔ)。但同時它也釋放了導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟與政治不平等加劇的動力，這些力量如今正變得難以逆轉(zhuǎn)。

【原文】The rise of economic inequality and right-wing populism in the last three decades has producedalively debate about the relationship between democracy and advanced capitalism. A prominent viewis that

the troubles are rooted in the growing power of global capital and the rich, first reflected in the broadsweepof neoliberal reforms in the 1980s and ’90s. This view is a story about capitalism subverting democracy. This piece instead argues that it was democracy that transformed capitalism, and that this transformationlaidthe foundation for unprecedented prosperity. Yet it also unleashed inequalizing economic and political

dynamics that are now proving difficult to reverse. 14. 國際制度的社會背景（Historical State Formation Within and Beyond Europe）Lisa Blaydes，斯坦福大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

Anna Grzymala-Busse，斯坦福大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

【摘要】國家形成是比較政治學(xué)中的一個關(guān)鍵議題。大量具有影響力的文獻都聚焦于早期現(xiàn)代歐洲政治分裂的背景下，戰(zhàn)爭對國家鞏固以及代表制度和稅收制度發(fā)展的促進作用。近年來，學(xué)者們通過強調(diào)其他形式的競爭、國家間合作與效仿對國家建設(shè)的影響，以及交戰(zhàn)國統(tǒng)治者之外更廣泛社會行為者的影響，拓寬了這一視角。本文回顧了有關(guān)國家形成的最新學(xué)術(shù)成果，這些研究表明，無論是在歐洲還是世界其他地區(qū)，傳統(tǒng)的“戰(zhàn)爭—國家”路徑僅僅是國家鞏固的眾多方式之一。本文強調(diào)了地理因素的重要性，并引入了對于國家-社會關(guān)系的組織形式以及區(qū)域和全球經(jīng)濟互動對國家形成影響的新見解。

【 原 文 】 The social context of relations between states provides the foundation for cooperation withininternational institutions. In a departure from theories that focus on rational design of contracts andfunctional demand for institutions, increasingly scholars emphasize geopolitics. Both as a component of

power and social context, geopolitics shapes multilateral cooperation. This article examines theories that

bring new perspectives on cooperation as a process embedded within international society. It highlightsinnovative developments to include relational variables in empirical analysis to measure howgeopolitical

alignment between states impacts the design and effectiveness of international institutions. The relational

politics that undergird multilateral cooperation also contribute to the proliferation of institutions as statesbuild new clubs for cooperation.

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15. 沖突研究：軌跡與挑戰(zhàn)（CONFLICT: Trajectories and Challenges）Stathis N. Kalyvas，牛津大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系系教授

【摘要】過去三十年間，沖突研究領(lǐng)域是如何發(fā)展的？本文通過提出三個問題來探討這個問題：我們?yōu)槭裁匆芯繘_突？我們?nèi)绾卫斫鉀_突？我們?nèi)绾窝芯繘_突？本文以過去五年間發(fā)表在《世界政治》期刊上的文章為例，進行批判性論述。文章最后強調(diào)了該領(lǐng)域未來面臨的三大關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)：一是從理論角度拓寬對沖突的理解；二是發(fā)展微觀、中觀和宏觀分析層次之間的概念、理論和實證聯(lián)系；三是以理論為依據(jù)，明確適用于研究結(jié)果的范圍條件。

【原文】How has the field of conflict studies evolved over the past three decades? This essay suggests ananswer by posing three questions: Why do we study conflict? What do we understand as conflict? Andhowdo we study conflict? The article proceeds with critical remarks, illustrated with articles that have appearedin World Politics during the past five years. It concludes by highlighting three key challenges for the futureevolution of the field: the theoretically driven broadening of our understanding of conflict; the development

of conceptual, theoretical, and empirical links between micro, meso, and macro levels of analysis; andatheoretically informed way of specifying the scope conditions that apply to findings. 16. 富裕民主國家中的福利國家（Welfare States in Wealthy Democracies）Jane Gingrich，牛津大學(xué)社會政策與干預(yù)系（DSPI）社會政策教授，格林·坦普爾頓學(xué)院高級研究員【摘要】受到民主制度瀕臨崩潰以及公共支出對于戰(zhàn)后穩(wěn)定民主關(guān)鍵作用的啟發(fā)，當代對福利國家的研究與《世界政治》一同始于戰(zhàn)后初期。在隨后的幾十年中，學(xué)界將關(guān)鍵問題聚焦于這一時期的常規(guī)福利政治——分配政治、政府政策對經(jīng)濟增長的影響，以及社會政策形成自身政治支撐的能力。在當今民主韌性不確定性加劇的時期，我們可能需要回歸更為傳統(tǒng)的問題：福利國家的強制功能、其維護民主的能力，以及福利政策在維持政治支持方面的不足。

【原文】The contemporary study of the welfare state began, along with World Politics, in the immediatepostwar era, inspired by the near-collapse of democracy and the crucial role envisaged for public spendinginstabilizing it after war. Over the following decades key scholarly questions focused on the normal welfarepolitics of the era—distributive politics, the effects of government policy on growth, and the capacityof

social policies to create their own political constituencies. In a new era of more uncertain democraticresilience, we may need to return to older questions: of the coercive function of the welfare state, of itsability/inability to conserve democracy, and of the weaknesses of welfare policies to maintain political

support. 17. 政治沖突與暴力研究已逝……政治沖突與暴力研究萬歲?。簭?fù)興并聚焦于政府與挑戰(zhàn)者的互動（The Study of Political Conflict and Violence Is Dead…Long Live the Studyof Political Conflict and Violence!: Resurrecting and Centering Government-ChallengerInteraction）

Christian Davenport，密歇根大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

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【摘要】過去五十年間，政治沖突與暴力研究取得了巨大進展，但同時由于許多學(xué)者僅專注于這一日益龐大的體系中的單個分支，而出現(xiàn)了碎片化現(xiàn)象。本文試圖反思學(xué)者們所走過的研究路徑，并探討一條有助于重新統(tǒng)一該領(lǐng)域的特定路徑。這條路徑將為該領(lǐng)域的既往研究提供重要見解，并為學(xué)界未來如何著手理解政治沖突與暴力研究提供建議。

【原文】The study of political conflict and violence has grown immensely over the past fifty years, but it hasalso fragmented as many now explore only single branches of the ever-larger tree. This article attempts toreflect on the paths that scholars have taken and discusses one particular path that could help to reunifythefield. This path would provide key insights into what has transpired in the field as well as into howscholarsshould approach trying to understand the study of political conflict and violence moving forward. 【編譯：崔馨月】【責(zé)任編輯：張奕?！俊秮喬珖H關(guān)系》（International Relations of the Asia-Pacific）International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 24, No. 3, 2024

1. 引言：亞太地區(qū)正式制度的興起與競爭性制度的復(fù)雜性（Introduction: The riseofformal institutions in the Asia-Pacific region through competitive regime complexity）Motoshi Suzuki，日本京都大學(xué)法學(xué)院國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

【摘要】以精確和非授權(quán)為特點的正式地區(qū)制度的出現(xiàn)標志著亞太地區(qū)的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。本特刊通過分析緊急流動資金供應(yīng)、發(fā)展援助、清潔空氣和勞工移民等政策領(lǐng)域，探討了以前未曾研究過的制度向正式化轉(zhuǎn)變的政治問題。為了指導(dǎo)我們的研究，這篇介紹性文章提出了一個概念框架，其中提出了一個《亞太國際關(guān)系》是在該領(lǐng)域出版最佳原創(chuàng)研究的重要國際期刊。該刊于 2001 年創(chuàng)刊，每年一月、五月和九月共出版三期。該刊目標有二：為亞太地區(qū)的讀者帶來國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域杰出的綜合學(xué)術(shù)研究，和為研究該地區(qū)國際關(guān)系的學(xué)者提供專門的發(fā)表渠道。該刊的發(fā)行涵蓋了日本國際關(guān)系協(xié)會（Japan Association of International Relations）的所有成員，從而保證了該地區(qū)的讀者數(shù)量?！秮喬珖H關(guān)系》的內(nèi)容側(cè)重于：亞太地區(qū)國家間的關(guān)系；亞太地區(qū)與世界其他地區(qū)的關(guān)系；與亞太一國或多國有關(guān)的國際關(guān)系一般性問題和理論。

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新穎的論點：正式化是競爭性制度創(chuàng)建和靈活制度選擇的結(jié)果，它促進了國家主權(quán)體系內(nèi)的互利制度，以及缺乏中央?yún)f(xié)調(diào)權(quán)威的分散國家能力。在這種情況下，多個主要國家會啟動制度以確保秩序制定特權(quán)。由于存在多種制度，小國從不對單一制度做出承諾；相反，它們會“貨比三家”，以選擇最符合其偏好的制度。在沒有第三方強制執(zhí)行的情況下，這些制度只有在與不斷變化的國家偏好保持一致時才能實施。

【原文】The emergence of formal regional regimes characterized by precision and non-delegation signifiesamajor shift in the Asia-Pacific region. This special issue addresses the previously unexamined politics of

institutional change towards formalization by analysing the policy realms of emergency liquidity provision, development aid, clean air, and labour immigration. To guide our research, this introductory article presentsa conceptual framework that posits a novel argument: formalization is a result of competitive regimecreation and flexible regime choice, fostering mutually beneficial regimes within a systemof statesovereignty, and dispersed state capabilities lacking centralized coordinating authority. In such a context, multiple major states initiate regimes to secure order-setting privileges. Given the existence of multipleregimes, smaller states never commit themselves to a single regime; instead, they engage in forumshoppingto select the regimes that best advance their preferences. Without third-party enforcement, these regimes areimplementable only if they remain aligned with the evolving state preferences. 2. 作為制度綜合體的亞太地區(qū)金融合作：解釋其覆蓋范圍、成員和規(guī)則模式（Financial

cooperation in the Asia-Pacific as regime complex: explaining patterns of coverage, membership, and rules）

William W Grimes and others，美國波士頓大學(xué)弗雷德里克·帕迪全球研究學(xué)院國際關(guān)系學(xué)教授【摘要】自 1997 年亞洲金融危機以來，東亞經(jīng)歷了從幾乎沒有區(qū)域金融合作到擁有多種合作安排的轉(zhuǎn)變。本文重點關(guān)注緊急流動性供應(yīng)這一問題領(lǐng)域，在該領(lǐng)域，全球（國際貨幣基金組織）、區(qū)域（清邁倡議多邊化）和雙邊安排以復(fù)雜的方式共存和重疊，形成了一個制度綜合體。雖然與1997 年相比，整個體系提供了更多的選擇和更多的資金，但它也提出了其在危機中如何運作的問題。本文展示了可能的債權(quán)國和可能的借款國的國家偏好如何相互作用，從而形成了當前的綜合制度，以及它們將如何進行政治妥協(xié)和合作中處理仍然存在的不確定性。本文認為，制度復(fù)合體的演變和當前形態(tài)是由主要國家利用或阻撓權(quán)力不對稱的努力所驅(qū)動的。

【 原 文 】 Since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, East Asia has gone from having virtually no regional

financial cooperation to having multiple cooperative arrangements. This article focuses on the issue areaof

emergency liquidity provision, where global (International Monetary Fund), regional (Chiang Mai InitiativeMultilateralization), and bilateral arrangements co-exist and overlap in complicated ways, forming a regimecomplex. While the overall system offers more options and greater funding than were available in 1997, it

also raises questions about how those levels will operate in a crisis. This article shows hownational

preferences of likely creditor and likely borrower countries have interacted to create the current regimecomplex, as well as the political compromises and remaining uncertainties about howthey will work

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together. It argues that the evolution and current shape of the regime complex have been driven bytheefforts of key states to take advantage of or thwart power asymmetries. 3. 通過競爭協(xié)調(diào)援助？中日競爭在亞洲對外援助政策中的意外后果（Aid coordinationthrough competition? Unintended consequences of China–Japan rivalry in foreignaidpolicy in Asia）

Hiroyuki Hoshiro，日本東京大學(xué)社會科學(xué)研究所教授

【摘要】中日兩國在亞洲的權(quán)力競爭仍在繼續(xù)，其政治對抗已延伸到對外援助領(lǐng)域的競爭。日本過去在該地區(qū)的對外援助中占主導(dǎo)地位，而中國則通過基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施援助超越了日本。日本尚未制定正式的地區(qū)援助和發(fā)展框架。然而，本文認為，中日之間無意間的捐助協(xié)調(diào)已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)。兩國提供的援助并不重疊，因為每個國家都傾向于關(guān)注數(shù)量有限的受援國，這就形成了一種自然的分工。為什么兩國的競爭會導(dǎo)致援助協(xié)調(diào)？本文通過研究日本和中國的援助行為回答了這一問題，并發(fā)現(xiàn)具有諷刺意味的是，正是兩國在經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施援助方面的共同利益造成了這種局面。

【原文】The power struggle between China and Japan in Asia continues, with their political confrontationsextending to foreign aid rivalry. While Japan used to dominate in foreign aid in the region, Chinahasovertaken it with its infrastructure assistance. No formal regional aid and development framework has yet

been developed here. However, this article argues that unintentional donor coordination between ChinaandJapan has been realized. The aid provided by the two does not overlap as each country tends to focus onalimited number of recipients, and a natural division of labor originates. Why has their rivalry resultedinaidcoordination? This article answers the question by examining the behaviors of Japanese and Chinese aidandfinding that, ironically, it is their shared interest in economic infrastructure aid that creates such a situation. 4. 在東亞政治競爭中就空氣污染問題開展環(huán)境合作（Navigating environmental

cooperation on air pollution amid political competition in East Asia）Azusa Uji，日本京都大學(xué)法學(xué)院副教授

【摘要】東亞國家最近通過東亞酸沉降監(jiān)測網(wǎng)絡(luò)提升了清潔空氣方面的區(qū)域合作，為多種污染物的監(jiān)測和能力建設(shè)援助做出了周密安排。這表明東亞國家已擺脫了早先在酸沉積問題上安排模糊的非正式制度。然而，盡管發(fā)生了這一顯著變化，現(xiàn)有文獻很大程度上仍未探討清潔空氣區(qū)域治理的正式化制度。本研究則填補了這一空白，借助制度復(fù)雜性和合法化理論分析了正式化的動態(tài)。研究側(cè)重于2012年 2021 年這十年間，采用文獻分析和訪談的方法。研究結(jié)果表明，政府通過制度競爭和選擇調(diào)整制度安排，積極追求國家利益，從而推動正式化進程。通過區(qū)域和全球機構(gòu)之間的互動，實現(xiàn)了對多種污染物危害性的共同認知，這對就制度安排達成一致起到了催化作用。

【原文】East Asian countries have recently upgraded their regional cooperation for clean air throughtheAcid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia, with elaborate arrangements for monitoringandcapacity-building assistance for multiple pollutants. This represents a departure from the earlier informal

regimes with vague arrangements on acid deposition. However, despite this notable shift, this formalization

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in the regional governance for clean air remains largely unexplored in the existing literature. This studyfillsthis gap by analysing the dynamics of formalization through aid from theories of regime complexityandlegalization. It focuses on the decade from 2012 to 2021, employing documentary analysis and interviews. The results reveal that governments actively pursue their state interests by adjusting institutional

arrangements through regime competition and selection that drive formalization. Sharing cognitionof thehazardousness of multiple pollutants achieved through interactions between regional and global institutionsserves as a catalyst for reaching an agreement on the arrangements. 5. 東亞和東南亞的移民治理（Migration governance in East and Southeast Asia）Erin Chung, 美國約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

James F Hollifield, 美國南衛(wèi)理公會大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

Yunchen Tian, 美國圣馬丁大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】本文通過比較使東南亞國家（尤其是印度尼西亞、菲律賓和越南）與東北亞兩個最大的勞動力移民接受國（日本和韓國）之間的勞動力移民流動制度化的客籍工人計劃，解釋了東亞和東南亞的移民治理。本報告展示了這些計劃如何導(dǎo)致目的地國之間對技術(shù)勞動力的競爭加劇，同時促進東南亞和東北亞國家之間的更大移民流動。雙邊經(jīng)濟協(xié)議在保護移民權(quán)利和促進移民融入目的地國方面產(chǎn)生了極不平衡、欠發(fā)達的框架。本文還為復(fù)合相互依存和全球移民治理理論提供了見解，并說明了移民相互依賴（Migration Interdependence）如何既能導(dǎo)致合作，又能導(dǎo)致沖突?！驹摹縏his article explains migration governance in East and Southeast Asia by comparing guestworker

programs that have institutionalized labor migration flows between Southeast Asian countries (especiallyIndonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) and the two largest Northeast Asian recipients of labor migration, Japan and South Korea. It demonstrates how these programs have led to heightened competition for skilledlabor between countries of destination, while facilitating greater migration flows between countries inSoutheast and Northeast Asia. Bilateral economic agreements have engendered highly uneven, underdeveloped frameworks for protecting migrant rights and facilitating migrant integration in countries of

destination. The analysis also provides insights into theories of complex interdependence and global

migration governance, and shows how migration interdependence (MI) can lead to both cooperationandconflict. 【編譯：馬欣茹】【責(zé)任編輯：張奕睿】

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《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 4, 2024

1. 世界政治的故事：歷史與虛構(gòu)之間（Stories of world Politics: Between HistoryandFiction）

Niyousha Bastani，加拿大多倫多大學(xué)逃避實驗室和僑民與跨國研究中心的博士后研究員，劍橋大學(xué)政治與國際研究博士

Italo Brandimarte，英國劍橋大學(xué)政治與國際研究博士候選人

【摘要】國際關(guān)系學(xué)科由歷史與虛構(gòu)之間的根本張力所定義。一方面，歷史研究方法對于追溯國際秩序的起源、為關(guān)鍵概念提供背景以及揭示被邊緣化的聲音至關(guān)重要。另一方面，該學(xué)科不可避免地陷入自我神話之中，這些神話塑造了全球政治中什么是“真實”和“正確”的觀念。本期特刊并不將歷史與虛構(gòu)之間的模糊區(qū)別視為需要明確解決的問題，而是將這些張力視為理解、操縱，甚至顛覆和（重新）想象國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的生成力。從多個角度——從歷史的書寫到虛構(gòu)想象的政治力量——審視這些動態(tài)，本期中的文章表明，歷史與虛構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系在理論和實踐上都是國際事務(wù)的一種構(gòu)成力量。本期特刊結(jié)合了歷史和批判性視角，闡明了對歷史與虛構(gòu)、現(xiàn)實與故事講述、事實性與想象力的觀念如何塑造世界政治，同時又被世界政治所塑造。本文認為，國際關(guān)系的歷史研究方法能做到的遠不止在這些模糊類別之間做出裁決。在這里，我們追尋可能性。

【原文】The discipline of International Relations is defined by a fundamental tension between historyandfiction. On the one hand, historical approaches are crucial in tracing the origins of international order, contextualising key concepts, and uncovering marginalised voices. On the other, the discipline is invariablycaught in its own mythologies, which shape what is“real”and“true”in global politics. Instead of treatingtheambiguous distinctions between history and fiction as problems to be definitively resolved, this Special Issuetakes up these tensions as generative for understanding, manoeuvring, and even disrupting and (re)imaginingthe field of IR. Examining these dynamics from several perspectives–from the writing of historytothepolitical force of fictional imaginaries–the articles in this Issue show that the relation between historyandfiction is a constitutive force of the international, in both theory and practice. Bringing together historical

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行評審期刊，發(fā)表關(guān)于國際事務(wù)的創(chuàng)新學(xué)術(shù)成果。其涵蓋社會科學(xué)領(lǐng)域，包括國際關(guān)系、歷史、法律、政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)、地區(qū)研究、發(fā)展研究和性別研究。它致力于采用多樣化的方法和方法，并鼓勵學(xué)術(shù)界和政策制定者 提 交 多 學(xué) 科 和 跨 學(xué) 科 的 貢 獻 。 其 2021 年 的 影 響 因子為2.492，在 96 種國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 33。

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and critical perspectives, the Issue elucidates how ideas of history and fiction, reality and storytelling, facticity and imagination shape and are in turn shaped by world politics. Historical approaches to IR, weargue, can do much more than adjudicate between these amorphous categories. Here, we pursuethepossibilities. 2. 帝國的來源：在歷史國際關(guān)系寫作中調(diào)和歷史與虛構(gòu)（Sources of empire: Negotiatinghistory and fiction in the writing of historical IR）

Julia Costa Lopez，荷蘭格羅寧根大學(xué)國際關(guān)系史與理論助理教授，牛津大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)博士?！菊吭趯⒆约憾ㄎ粸樯裨捚瞥邥r，歷史國際關(guān)系學(xué)者在他們與該學(xué)科的對話中刻下了歷史與虛構(gòu)之間的區(qū)別。然而，對于這可能對歷史知識的地位意味著什么，探討大多集中在廣泛的元理論區(qū)分和辯論上。與此相反，本文認為關(guān)于歷史知識及其地位的問題最好被理解為，在撰寫歷史的研究實踐中追求特定問題和撰寫特定答案的偶然性解決方案。通過探討 15 世紀伊比利亞帝國早期創(chuàng)建階段及其編年史提供的記載，本文試圖使撰寫歷史過程中的協(xié)商與定性變得可見，這些過程涉及歷史與虛構(gòu)之間四個方面的區(qū)別：事實性、情節(jié)構(gòu)建、體裁和歷史情境政治。

【原文】In framing themselves as myth-busters, historical IR scholars have inscribed the distinction betweenhistory and fiction into how they speak to the discipline. And yet, engagement with what this might meanfor

the status of historical knowledge has mostly focused on broad metatheoretical distinctions and debates. Against this, I argue that questions about historical knowledge and its status are best understoodascontingent settlements in the research practice of writing history, pursuing specific questions and writingspecific answers. Through an exploration of the early stages in the creation of the Iberian Empires inthefifteenth century and the chronicles that provide an account of it, the article seeks to make visiblethenegotiations and settlements involved in writing history along four aspects of the distinction between historyand fiction: facticity, emplotment, genre and the situated politics of history. 3. 我們生活的故事：歷史國際關(guān)系的崛起與向概念的轉(zhuǎn)變（Stories we live by: the riseofHistorical IR and the move to concepts）

Oliver Kessler, 德國埃爾福特大學(xué)國際關(guān)系教授

Halvard Leira，挪威國際事務(wù)研究所（NUPI）國際關(guān)系研究教授

【摘要】人文學(xué)科和社會科學(xué)學(xué)者必然是講故事的人。因此，構(gòu)建敘事是國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)實踐不可避免的特征。我們講述過去的故事，以在當下定位自己并展望未來。歷史國際關(guān)系大大擴展了可用敘事元素的范疇。然而，當我們通過現(xiàn)在的棱鏡閱讀過去時，可能會失去以不同方式想象現(xiàn)在和未來的機會。本文承認 HIR（歷史國際關(guān)系）在過去幾十年中所取得的進步，但也提出，更緊密地接觸概念史將會進一步增強其潛力，使我們能夠探索更廣泛的經(jīng)驗空間如何也能拓寬我們的期望視野?！驹摹縎cholars of the humanities and social sciences are necessarily storytellers. Thus, crafting narrativesis an inescapable feature of the practice of International Relations scholarship. We tell stories about the past

to orient ourselves in the present and envision the future. Historical International Relations has greatly

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expanded the repertoire of available narrative elements. However, when we read the past through the prismof our present, we risk closing down opportunities for different ways of imagining both the present andthefuture. In this article, we acknowledge the advances made in HIR over the last decades but suggest that acloser engagement with conceptual history would enhance its potential even further, making it possibletoexplore how a wider space of experience can also widen our horizon of expectations. 4. 認識論安全與魔幻現(xiàn)實主義的救贖性霸權(quán)（Epistemic security and the redemptivehegemony of magical realism）

Xymena Kurowska，意大利佛羅倫薩歐洲大學(xué)學(xué)院社會與政治科學(xué)博士，維也納中歐大學(xué)國際關(guān)系副教授

【摘要】本文將認識論安全的概念發(fā)展為一種本體安全的形式。認識論安全指的是一種救贖性霸權(quán)感，它源自參與認識論權(quán)威的儀式化體系。這類體系由轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槭刈o型專家的專家們進行策略性地識別和培育，他們將知識生產(chǎn)儀式化以產(chǎn)生集體賦權(quán)。認識論安全對本體安全研究中給現(xiàn)代專業(yè)知識和反思性能動性的概念提出了質(zhì)疑。守護型專家將知識形成嵌入傳統(tǒng)而非方法論懷疑主義中，并否認其解釋框架的認識論暴力。本文在與“魔幻現(xiàn)實主義”（magical realism）的互動中發(fā)展出這一論點——“魔幻現(xiàn)實主義”是俄羅斯親政權(quán)學(xué)術(shù)話語中現(xiàn)實主義國際關(guān)系理論的一種儀式化腳本。通過儀式性的掌控，魔幻現(xiàn)實主義的守護型專家實現(xiàn)從科學(xué)框架到神圣框架的“神奇滑移”，使俄烏沖突具有霸權(quán)性的救贖意義，成為一種科學(xué)推導(dǎo)的、歷史注定的以及政治上審慎的大國行動。

【原文】Scholars of the humanities and social sciences are necessarily storytellers. Thus, crafting narrativesis an inescapable feature of the practice of International Relations scholarship. We tell stories about the past

to orient ourselves in the present and envision the future. Historical International Relations has greatlyexpanded the repertoire of available narrative elements. However, when we read the past through the prismof our present, we risk closing down opportunities for different ways of imagining both the present andthefuture. In this article, we acknowledge the advances made in HIR over the last decades but suggest that acloser engagement with conceptual history would enhance its potential even further, making it possibletoexplore how a wider space of experience can also widen our horizon of expectations. 5. 反制繪圖檔案：一種去殖民女性主義的研究方法（Counter-mapping the archive: adecolonial feminist research method）

Alice E. Finden，英國杜倫大學(xué)國際政治助理教授

【摘要】在過去十年中，人們對“轉(zhuǎn)向歷史”的興趣日益濃厚，與此同時，對檔案進行反向解讀也成為了對當代治理實踐提出質(zhì)疑的一種手段。在這篇文章中，探討了一種去殖民女性主義方法如何應(yīng)用于殖民檔案，并通過開發(fā)一種涉及反制圖的研究方法來實現(xiàn)。這種方法包括在2019 年至2020 年期間進行參與式訪談，讓受訪者為開羅的殖民地圖做標注，并共同創(chuàng)建一幅替代地圖。這種方法提供了一個去殖民化的空間，在這個空間里，研究者和參與者共同調(diào)查城市地點作為“安全威脅”和“危險社區(qū)”的空間安全化問題。在這個過程中，我們共同審視了殖民檔案所構(gòu)建的某些安全“真相”是如何

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以新的后殖民安全化形式超越殖民/現(xiàn)代連續(xù)體在埃及存在的。地圖上的安全化空間則被重新想象為解放和生活的空間。同時，參與者之間的性別差異也指向了埃及性別方面的殖民性。鑒于此，本文也討論了代表性方法的問題，以及對去殖民化研究方法采取交叉女性主義方法的需求。【原文】The past decade has seen a growing interest in the‘turn to history’which has coincidedwithacounter-reading of the archive as a means to trouble contemporary practices of governance. In this article, I

explore what a decolonial feminist approach to the colonial archive can look like through the development of

a research method that involves counter-mapping. This method included the use of participatory interviews, carried out between 2019–2020, that involved asking interviewees to annotate colonial maps of Cairo, andthe co-creation of an alternative map. This method presented a decolonial space where I, the researcher, andthe participants, co-investigated the spatial securitisation of urban sites as‘security threats’and‘dangerouscommunities’. In doing so, we co-examined how certain security‘truths’constructed by the colonial archivetranscend the colonial/modern continuum in new postcolonial forms of securitisation in Egypt. Securitisedspaces on the map were, instead, reimagined as spaces of emancipation and life. At the same time, thegendered differences between participants also point to the coloniality of gender in Egypt. In light of this, I

thereby also discuss the troubles of representative methods, and the need for an intersectional feminist

approach to decolonial research methods. 6. 中東的日常核歷史與未來（1945-1948）（Migration governance in East andSoutheastAsia）

Hebatalla Taha，瑞典隆德大學(xué)政治學(xué)系和中東高級研究中心副高級講師

【摘要】本文考察了中東阿拉伯語地區(qū)的核想象。它將阿拉伯世界的人們納入核思維，探討原子時代如何迅速成為日常生活的一部分。本文認為現(xiàn)實與虛構(gòu)不僅深度交織而且共同構(gòu)成的特征，它分析了在日本轟炸之后，人們?nèi)粘Ｅc核狀況的互動，涵蓋了廣泛的來源。文章認為，這些半虛構(gòu)的歷史來源——回憶錄、偽科學(xué)預(yù)測、報紙上發(fā)表的投機性報告、科普書籍甚至謠言——捕捉了原子時代初期的情感時刻，其特點是歇斯底里、廣泛的猜測和夸張。關(guān)于核武器的討論，正因為其破壞程度似乎難以想象，模糊了“真實”與“虛構(gòu)”之間的界限，為反思世界政治故事以及歷史國際關(guān)系中的緊張關(guān)系提供了獨特的機會。

【原文】This article examines nuclear imaginaries in the Arabic-speaking Middle East. It situates peoplefrom the Arab world into nuclear thought, looking at how the atomic age rapidly became part of everydaylives. Embracing the idea that reality and fiction are not only deeply intertwined but also co-constitutive, it

analyses everyday engagements with the nuclear condition in the aftermath of the bombing of Japan, acrossa wide range of sources. The article argues that these semi-fictional historical sources —memoirs, pseudo-scientific predictions, speculative reports published in newspapers, popular science books andevenrumours—capture an affective moment at the beginning of the atomic age, which was marked by hysteria, widespread speculation and exaggeration. Discussions on nuclear weapons, precisely because the extent of

their destruction seems unimaginable, blur the boundaries between‘real’and‘fictional’, offering a unique

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opportunity to reflect on stories of world politics and on the tensions within historical International

Relations. 7. 中國尋找未來以解答過去：劉慈欣、（科幻）小說與中國發(fā)展主義（China’s searchforthe future to answer the past: Liu Cixin, (science-)fiction and Chinese developmentalism）Ale? Karmazin, 捷克布拉格都市大學(xué)亞洲研究系和安全研究中心助理教授【摘要】本文分析了劉慈欣的《地球往事》，也被稱為《三體》三部曲，以及它與中國政治和歷史國際關(guān)系（IR）的聯(lián)系。本文考察了這部三部曲作品作為一個當代流行文化藝術(shù)品和虛構(gòu)敘事如何維持、重塑并對歷史進行了批判性的處理。這里的歷史被視為歷史建構(gòu)、歷史軌跡和關(guān)鍵歷史挑戰(zhàn)。本文響應(yīng)了本期特刊的號召，考慮了故事講述和歷史國際關(guān)系如何具有顛覆性的新維度。在理論層面，本文借助實用主義和后殖民主義區(qū)分了外部和內(nèi)部顛覆（批判）的概念。在實證層面，本文認為三部曲通過表達其諷刺和不確定性，對中國長期以來的發(fā)展主義現(xiàn)代化癡迷進行了內(nèi)部批判。它通過展示發(fā)展（主義）最終是無法實現(xiàn)、不必要且不可控制的，揭示了發(fā)展的局限性（“邊緣”）。換句話說，內(nèi)部顛覆源于揭露給定傳統(tǒng)的最終邊界，在那里其內(nèi)部邏輯開始崩潰。

【原文】This paper analyses Remembrance of Earth’s Past, also known as The Three-Body Trilogy, byLiuCixin and its connections to Chinese politics and Historical IR. I examine how the Trilogy as a contemporarypop-cultural artefact and a fictional narrative sustains, recrafts and critically deals with the historical, conceived here as constructions of history, historical trajectories and the key historic challenges. I respondtothe call of this special issue to consider new dimensions of how storytelling and Historical IRcanbedisruptive. On the theoretical level, I distinguish the notions of external and internal disruptions (critiques)

with the help of pragmatism and post-colonialism. On the empirical level, I argue that the Trilogy offers aninternal critique of China’ s long-term obsession with developmentalist modernisation by expressing ironiesand uncertainties of it. It reveals limits (‘selvedges’) of development(alism) by showing that it is ultimatelyunachievable, unnecessary and uncontrollable. In other words, the internal disruption stems fromexposingthe final frontiers of the given tradition where its internal logic starts to crumble. 8. 揮之不去的過往：英國國防、歷史敘事與當下主義政治（A haunting past: Britishdefence, historical narratives, and the politics of presentism）David Morgan-Owen，英國倫敦國王學(xué)院戰(zhàn)爭史高級講師

Aimée Fox，英國倫敦國王學(xué)院高級講師

Huw Bennett，英國卡迪夫大學(xué)國際關(guān)系高級講師

【摘要】本文將歷史虛構(gòu)作為一種社會過程進行考察，在這個過程中，有關(guān)沖突和戰(zhàn)爭的觀念在社會中被構(gòu)建和敘述。以英國為例，它探討了在應(yīng)用背景下關(guān)于過去的“真相講述”，審視了構(gòu)建和維持關(guān)于英國軍事過往敘事的努力，以及這些敘事在支持政治和社會共識形式中的作用，這些共識支撐著軍事力量的發(fā)展和使用。本文提出了西方自由國家在其獨特的軍國主義和軍民關(guān)系形式中塑造和動員歷史小說的方式的類型學(xué)：“講述故事”——通過公共展覽、博物館和儀式來培養(yǎng)和維持對軍事力量

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的社會理解；“隱藏過去”——利用國家權(quán)力來塑造學(xué)術(shù)研究并掩蓋軍事歷史的某些方面；以及“認識戰(zhàn)爭”——合法化國家武裝部隊對戰(zhàn)爭和安全權(quán)威知識的壟斷主張。

【原文】This article examines historical fictions as social processes by which ideas about conflict andwarfare are constructed and narrated within society. Focusing on Britain, it explores ‘truth telling’about

the past in an applied context, examining efforts to construct and sustain narratives about Britain’s militarypast and their role in upholding forms of political and societal consensus that underpin the development anduse of military power. We offer a typology of the ways in which Western liberal states shape and mobilisehistorical fictions within their distinctive forms of militarism and civil-military relations: ‘Telling Stories’—curating and sustaining social understandings of military power through public displays, museums, andceremonies; ‘Hiding Pasts’—using state power to shape academic research and to occlude aspects of themilitary past; and ‘Knowing War’ — legitimating the state and armed forces’ claims to a monopolyof

authoritative knowledge about war and security. 9. 西爾維亞·溫特在北極：早期現(xiàn)代探險敘事與“人類”的構(gòu)建（Sylvia WynterintheArctic: early modern expeditionary narratives and the construction of ‘Man’）Alister Wedderburn，英國格拉斯哥大學(xué)國際關(guān)系講師

【摘要】本文將馬丁·弗羅比舍在 1576 年、1577 年和 1578 年對北美北極的航行與牙買加批評家和理論家西爾維亞·溫特的思想聯(lián)系起來。在溫特看來，哥倫布發(fā)現(xiàn)美洲后的定居和殖民化既是一個熔爐，也是一個試驗場，用于形成一種新的、種族化的人類理解，她稱之為“人類”。文章專注于弗羅比舍三次前往巴芬島航行中水手們撰寫的探險敘事，將這些敘事視為旅行寫作的例子，這是一種在歷史和虛構(gòu)之間流動、不穩(wěn)定的體裁，經(jīng)常調(diào)節(jié)對差異、等級和（國際）秩序的理解。文章著重分析這些文本對種族和他者的處理，認為北極是一個關(guān)鍵的場所，在這里，支配英國人與所謂的“新世界”及其人民互動的關(guān)系性條款在猶豫、笨拙且常常是暴力的情況下被制定出來?！驹摹縏his article locates Martin Frobisher’s voyages to the North American Arctic in 1576, 1577and1578 in relation to the thought of Jamaican critic and theorist Sylvia Wynter. For Wynter, thepost-Columbian settlement and colonisation of the Americas functioned as both a crucible and provingground for a new, racialised understanding of the human, which she calls ‘Man ’. Focusingonexpeditionary narratives written by sailors on Frobisher’s three voyages to Baffin Island, the article treatsthese narratives as examples of travel writing, a genre occupying the mobile, labile threshold betweenhistory and fiction which has often mediated the comprehension of difference, hierarchy and (international)

order. Focusing on these texts’ treatments of race and otherness, the article argues that the Arctic was akeysite where the terms of relationality governing English interaction with the so-called ‘NewWorld’ anditspeople were hesitatingly, clumsily and often violently worked out. 【編譯：常靖婧】【責(zé)任編輯：張奕?！?/p>

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《華盛頓季刊》（The Washington Quarterly）The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 3, 2024

1. 受美國驅(qū)動的中國中東戰(zhàn)略（China’s US-Driven Middle East Strategy）Jared Oestman，美國戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心（CSIS）高級副總裁，茲比格涅夫·布熱津斯基全球安全和地緣戰(zhàn)略主席和中東項目主任

【摘要】自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈馬斯對以色列發(fā)動襲擊以來的一系列外交活動中，中國常常遠離行動的中心。美國、阿拉伯和歐洲的談判者與以色列人、巴勒斯坦人和地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人進行了數(shù)百甚至數(shù)千小時閉門談判，試圖就?；?、人質(zhì)釋放、安全和重建達成協(xié)議，而中國的談判代表們度過的不眠之夜則少得多。中國在 7 月份促成了一項巴勒斯坦內(nèi)部統(tǒng)一協(xié)議，該協(xié)議承諾很多，但較少提及任何實施策略。目前尚不清楚該協(xié)議是否會對巴勒斯坦人產(chǎn)生的任何影響，乃至解決他們與以色列的沖突?！驹摹縄n the flurry of diplomacy since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, China has oftenbeenfar from the action. American, Arab and European negotiators have spent hundreds--if not thousands--of

hours locked in rooms with Israelis, Palestinians and regional leaders trying to hammer out agreements onaceasefire, hostage release, security and reconstruction, Chinese negotiators have had far fewer sleeplessnights. They worked through a Palestinian unity agreement in July that was long on pledges and short onanyimplementation strategy. It remains unclear whether the agreement will have any impact at all onPalestinians, let alone the resolution of their conflict with Israel. 2. 在分裂的聯(lián)合國安全理事會下預(yù)防大規(guī)模暴行（Preventing Mass Atrocities withaDivided UN Security Council）

Anjali Dayal，美國紐約福特漢姆大學(xué)政治學(xué)系國際政治學(xué)副教授

【摘要】在大國沖突加劇的時代，美國可用的預(yù)防和處理大規(guī)模暴行的多邊策略和工具是什么？多邊沖突管理工具（如維和行動）在大國合作時期蓬勃發(fā)展，但往往在聯(lián)合國安全理事會五個常任理事國之間的緊張關(guān)系加劇時陷入停滯。聯(lián)合國系統(tǒng)——負責(zé)管理沖突解決、人道主義救援和平民保護的關(guān)《華盛頓季刊》（The Washington Quarterly）由喬治·華盛頓 大 學(xué) 的 埃 利 奧 特 國 際 事 務(wù) 學(xué) 院 主 辦 ， 并 由 Taylor &

Francis 出版，是一本全球安全事務(wù)期刊，提供關(guān)于全球戰(zhàn)略變化、趨勢和關(guān)系及其公共政策影響的不同觀點。其撰稿人來自全球，反映了不同的政治、地區(qū)和專業(yè)觀點。其2021 年的影響因子為 2.013，在 96 種國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 47。

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鍵多邊機構(gòu)——依賴于大國合作來管理復(fù)雜的人道災(zāi)難。但是，大國競爭的崛起意味著這些國家越來越難以在沖突中的關(guān)鍵拯救生命措施上達成一致，即使當涉及三個大國——美國、俄羅斯和中國——的關(guān)鍵危機導(dǎo)致廣泛的平民痛苦時也是如此。

【原文】What multilateral strategies and tools are available to the United States for preventing and managingmass atrocities in an era of heightened great-power conflict? Multilateral conflict management tools likepeacekeeping have flourished in times of great-power cooperation, but have often stalled when tensionsspike among the UN Security Council's five permanent members. The UN system-the key set of multilateral

institutions charged with managing conflict resolution, humanitarian relief, and civilian protection--dependson great-power cooperation to manage complex human disasters. But the rise of great-power competitionhasmeant that increasingly these powers cannot easily agree on critical life-saving measures in conflicts, evenaskey crises involving three of these members-the US, Russia and China--produce widespread civilian pain. 3. 德國“時代轉(zhuǎn)折”的幻象（The Illusion of Germany’s Zeitenwende）Rafa? Ulatowski，波蘭華沙大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】2022 年 2 月 27 日，就在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭三天后，德國總理奧拉夫?朔爾茨宣布，這對德國而言是一個“時代轉(zhuǎn)折”（Zeitenwende），德國很快將公布一項新的外交政策。他宣布改變德國與俄羅斯的關(guān)系（實施嚴厲制裁并結(jié)束德國對俄羅斯能源供應(yīng)的依賴），以軍事裝備的形式支持烏克蘭，最重要的是轉(zhuǎn)變德國的國防政策。朔爾茨宣布設(shè)立 1000 億歐元的特別基金，用于資助德國武裝部隊（聯(lián)邦國防軍）的現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)，將國防開支增加到每年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的 2%以上，并打造一支“強大、超現(xiàn)代、進步的聯(lián)邦國防軍”，配備 “能飛的飛機、能出海的艦艇以及為執(zhí)行任務(wù)做好最佳裝備的士兵”。自 2022 年 2 月的演講以來，朔爾茨總理對德國在歐洲的角色有了一個更加雄心勃勃的愿景——成為 “歐洲安全的保障者”，為 “歐洲大陸的安全承擔(dān)主要責(zé)任”，并成為“歐洲常規(guī)防御的基石”?！?原 文 】On February 27, 2022, just three days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholzannounced that this was a Zeitenwende (“turning point”) for Germany, which would soon unveil a newforeign policy. He announced changes in Germany’s relations with Russia (harsh sanctions and endingGermany’s dependence on Russian energy supplies), support for Ukraine in the form of military equipment, and most importantly a shift in German defense policy. Scholz announced the creation of a 100-billioneurospecial fund to finance the modernization of Germany’s armed forces (the Bundeswehr), an increaseindefense spending up to more than 2 percent of GDP per year, and the creation of a “powerful, ultra-modern, progressive Bundeswehr” equipped with “airplanes that fly, ships that can set out to sea, and soldiers whoare optimally equipped for their missions.” Since that speech in February 2022, Chancellor Scholzhasdeveloped an even more ambitious vision of Germany’s role in Europe—to be the “guarantor of Europeansecurity,” taking “l(fā)eading responsibility for the security of [the] continent,”and becoming “thecornerstone of conventional defense in Europe.

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4. 擾亂平衡：為什么俄羅斯選擇哈馬斯而不是以色列（Upsetting the Balance: WhyRussia Chose Hamas over Israel）

Kimberly Marten，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)巴納德學(xué)院教授

【摘要】俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾·普京長期以來一直試圖在以色列、伊朗和主要阿拉伯國家之間玩一場平衡游戲。然而，在 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈馬斯對以色列發(fā)起可怕的恐怖襲擊之后，普京的俄羅斯似乎立即放棄了以色列，轉(zhuǎn)而支持哈馬斯，這一模式一直持續(xù)到現(xiàn)在。雖然莫斯科與耶路撒冷（注：指以色列）保持著官方外交關(guān)系，但其選擇使俄以關(guān)系的基調(diào)降至冷戰(zhàn)后的新低點，并損害了俄羅斯在該地區(qū)的一些重要安全利益。

【原文】Russian President Vladimir Putin has long attempted to play a balancing game between Israel, Iran, and leading Arab states in the Middle Fast. Yet immediately in the wake of the horrific Hamas terrorist

onslaught against Israel on October 7, 2023, Putin's Russia seemed to abandon Israel in favor of Hamas, setting a pattern that has continued ever since, While Moscow has maintained official diplomatic relationswith Jerusalem, its choices have brought the tenor of its relationship with Israel to a new post-Cold War low, and have harmed some of Russia's significant security interests in the region. 5. 俄羅斯在白俄羅斯的核武器？動機與后果（Russian Nuclear Weapons inBelarus?Motivations and Consequences）

Liviu Horovitz，比利時布魯塞爾治理學(xué)院（BSoG-VUB）安全、外交與戰(zhàn)略中心（CSDS）高級研究員

Lydia Wachs，瑞典斯德哥爾摩大學(xué)國際關(guān)系專業(yè)博士生候選人

【摘要】大約三十年前，蘇聯(lián)的核彈頭和運載工具從白俄羅斯運往俄羅斯。這種歸還既是大國壓力的結(jié)果，也是試圖增強明斯克從莫斯科新獲得的獨立性的嘗試。到 2023 年夏天，核武器似乎又回到了這個國家。

【原文】Nearly three decades ago, Soviet nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles left Belarus for Russia. This return was as much the result of great power pressure as it was an attempt to bolster Minsk's newfoundindependence from Moscow. By summer 2023, nuclear weapons seemed to have returned to the country. 6. 扼制俄羅斯的戰(zhàn)爭經(jīng)濟（Starving Russia’s War Economy）Noel Foster，美國海軍戰(zhàn)爭學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】在弗拉基米爾·普京的俄羅斯，最有效率的將軍是一位名叫埃爾維拉·薩希普扎多夫娜·納比烏琳娜的矮小經(jīng)濟學(xué)家。當俄羅斯在 2023 年夏天前線崩潰時，參謀長瓦列里·格拉西莫夫?qū)④姾蛧啦块L謝爾蓋·紹伊古被葉夫根尼·普里戈任羞辱，隨后普里戈任叛變并向莫斯科進軍，納比烏琳娜冷靜地保持了盧布的穩(wěn)定并反擊了西方的制裁. 納比烏琳娜出身于工人階級的韃靼族家庭，在蘇聯(lián)后期精英體制下努力突破極限。自 2013 年擔(dān)任中央銀行行長以來，盡管面臨西方連續(xù)幾輪的制裁和戰(zhàn)爭，她仍然保持了盧布的穩(wěn)定，自普京在 2014 年 2 月接管克里米亞以來，情況便是如此。因此，當納比烏琳娜告訴國家杜馬，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟的主要威脅并非來自西方的制裁，而是來自俄羅斯的勞動力

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短缺時，人們應(yīng)該認真聽取她的警告。在一個過熱的戰(zhàn)爭經(jīng)濟中，85%的俄羅斯公司報告了工人短缺的情況，半熟練工種的薪水增加了高達 20%。這是不可持續(xù)的。

【原文】The most effective general in Vladimir Putin's Rusia is a diminutive economist by the nameof

Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. When Russia's frontlines were collapsing in summer 2023-and Chief of

Staff General Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu were shamed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who then proceeded to mutiny and march on Moscow-Nabiullina calmly kept the ruble afloat andcounteracted Western sanctions. A product of a working-class ethnic Tatar family who pushed the limits of

late Soviet meritocracy, Nabiullina has preserved the ruble since being named Central Bank governor in2013, in the face of successive rounds of Western sanctions and war following Putin's February2014takeover of Crimea. One would do well to listen to Nabiullina's warnings, therefore, when she told the Dumathat the main threat to the Russian economy comes not from the West's sanctions, but rather fromRussia'slabor shortages. In an overheated war economy, 85 percent of Russian companies reported worker shortages, and salaries for semi-skilled positions increased by up to 20 percent. That is untenable. 7. 普京會止步于烏克蘭嗎？這是個錯誤的問題（Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’stheWrong Question）

Samuel Charap，美國蘭德公司俄羅斯和歐亞政策杰出主席以及高級政治學(xué)家Miranda Priebe，美國蘭德公司美國大戰(zhàn)略分析中心主任及高級政治學(xué)家

【摘要】2024 年春，西方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人開始就俄羅斯對北約盟友構(gòu)成的威脅發(fā)出嚴重警告。在2024 年國情咨文演講中，總統(tǒng)喬·拜登對在座的議員表示：“如果這個房間里的任何人認為普京會在烏克蘭停止，我向你保證，他不會?！卑莸遣⒉皇俏ㄒ灰粋€這么認為的人。丹麥國防部長特羅爾斯·倫德·鮑爾森也表示：“在三到五年內(nèi)，俄羅斯可能會測試北約第五條款和北約的團結(jié)?！钡聡鴩啦块L鮑里斯·皮斯托里烏斯也呼應(yīng)了這一評估：“我們必須考慮到弗拉基米爾·普京有一天可能會攻擊一個北約國家?！彼a充說，雖然俄羅斯的攻擊 “目前” 不太可能，但“我們的專家預(yù)計在五到八年內(nèi)這是有可能的?！辈ㄌm總理唐納德·圖斯克更進一步，稱歐洲目前處于“戰(zhàn)前時代”。

【原文】In the spring of 2024, Western leaders began issuing dire warnings about the threat posed byRussiato NATO allies. During his 2024 State of the Union speech, President Joe Biden addressed the assembledlawmakers: “If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not.” Bidenwasfar from alone, “It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5andNATO's solidarity,” said Denmark Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. German Defense Minister BorisPistorius echoed this assessment: “we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attackaNATO country one day.” While a Russian attack is not likely “for now,” the minister added: “Our expertsexpect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible.” Polish Prime Minister DonaldTuskwent one step further, arguing Europe was in a “pre-war era.” 【編譯：常靖婧】【責(zé)任編輯：張奕睿】

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《亞洲調(diào)查》（Asian Survey）

Asian Survey, Vol. 64, No. 5, 2024

1. 從臺灣地區(qū)情感極化的視角看精英因素對政策態(tài)度的影響：敵意的強大力量（TheEffect of Elite Cues on Policy Attitudes through the Lens of Affective PolarizationinTaiwan: The Potent Force of Animosity）

金志聿, 中原大學(xué)信息管理系的副教授

Cheng-Lung Wang，中原大學(xué)信息管理系研究助理

【摘要】政治的個人化和精英極化引起了學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注。本文對 2020 年臺灣地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人選舉期間的政策建議和選民對候選人的評價進行了線上實驗調(diào)查。在控制黨派相關(guān)因素的情況下，筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)了精英對選民政策態(tài)度的影響。這種效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)為消極影響，而非積極影響。此外，消極影響因候選人而異。研究表明，在政策態(tài)度的形成中，反對一個候選人比喜歡一個候選人的影響更大?？傮w而言，本研究以臺灣選舉背景為依據(jù)，擴展了我們對個人化政治視角下精英效應(yīng)的理解。這一信息不僅有利于理解極化的政治后果，而且對理解政治極化與公民意見形成的關(guān)系也是至關(guān)重要的?！驹摹縏he personalization of politics and elite polarization have attracted considerable scholarly attention. We conducted an online experimental survey on policy proposals and voters’ evaluations of candidatesduring the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election. We see an elite effect on voters’ policy attitudes whencontrolling for party-related factors. The effect shows up as a negative cue but not as a positive cue. Moreover, the negative effect varies by candidate. These findings suggest that in policy attitude formation, opposition to a candidate has a stronger effect than liking a candidate. Overall, this study extends our

understanding of the elite effect from the perspective of personalized politics with evidence fromtheTaiwanese electoral context. This information is critical not only for understanding the political

consequences of polarization but also for understanding how it relates to opinion formation among citizens. 2. 經(jīng)濟挫折與韓國年輕男性對性別平等的抵制（Economic Frustration and Resistanceto Gender Equality among Young Korean Men）

《亞洲調(diào)查》是加州大學(xué)出版社代表加州大學(xué)伯克利分校東亞研究所出版的學(xué)術(shù)期刊。該雜志于 1932 年以備忘錄的形式成立，但在 1935 年更名為《遠東調(diào)查》，并于1961

年獲得了現(xiàn)名。該刊物持續(xù)關(guān)注亞洲事務(wù)與發(fā)展，是亞洲研 究 領(lǐng) 域 的 重 要 學(xué) 術(shù) 刊 物 之 一。 其 2021 年 的 影 響 因子為0.511，在 84 種區(qū)域研究期刊中排名第 68。

184

Hanna Kim，匹茲堡大學(xué)亞洲研究中心訪問學(xué)者，首爾大學(xué)講師

Youngdeuk Park（通訊作者），忠南大學(xué)政治系助理教授

【摘要】對加強性別平等政策的偏見和消極態(tài)度往往與性別歧視等個人特征有關(guān)。而另一種視角更側(cè)重于資源稀缺情況下的群體間威脅，強調(diào)經(jīng)濟挫折。本研究以韓國為中心，基于群際威脅理論，探討了年輕男性日益加深的悲觀經(jīng)濟觀念與他們對性別平等的反對態(tài)度之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。通過分析2019年統(tǒng)一調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)韓國年輕男性對性別平等政策的支持程度低于其他人群。在20 歲左右的韓國男性中，對自己經(jīng)濟地位的悲觀看法與對性別平等政策的支持程度較低有關(guān)。而相比之下，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在這一群體中，性別歧視態(tài)度和對性別平等政策的抵制之間并沒有明顯的聯(lián)系?！驹摹縋rejudice and negative attitudes toward stronger gender-equality policies are often associatedwithpersonal traits such as sexism. An alternate perspective focuses on intergroup threats in resource-scarcesituations, highlighting economic frustration. Centered on South Korea, this study examines the connectionbetween deepening pessimistic economic perceptions among young men and their opposition to gender

equality, based on intergroup threat theory. Analyzing data from the 2019 Unification Survey, we findthat

young Korean men expressed less support for gender-equality policies than other segments of the population. And among Korean men in their twenties, a pessimistic view of their economic status correlated with weaker

endorsement of gender-equality policies. In contrast, we saw no significant link in this group betweensexist

attitudes and resistance to gender-equality policies. 3. 中國對外直接投資與發(fā)展中國家網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)字自由（Chinese Overseas ForeignDirectInvestment and Online Digital Freedom in Developing Countries）Lance Y. Hunter，奧古斯塔大學(xué)社會科學(xué)系國際關(guān)系學(xué)教授、情報與安全研究碩士Glen Biglaiser，北德克薩斯大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

Kelan (Lilly) Lu，南卡羅來納大學(xué)政治學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】盡管已有研究表明中國對發(fā)展中國家的政策影響越來越大，但很少有實證研究去考量中國對外直接投資（FDI）與東道國網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)字自由之間的關(guān)系。從 2003 年到 2019 年，我們考察了多達112個的發(fā)展中國家，并使用兩階段最小二乘選擇建模方法，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國對外直接投資與網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)字自由的四種限制之間存在關(guān)聯(lián)。相反，當我們將其替換為全球 FDI（不包括中國 FDI）時，得到了不同的結(jié)果，這表明中國跨國公司和在線數(shù)字自由之間存在一些特殊之處。本文的研究表明，中國和東道國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人通過約束網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)字自由來達到互惠互利。

【原文】Although studies have shown China’s growing influence on developing countries’ policies, littleempirical work has considered the relationship between Chinese overseas foreign direct investment (FDI)

and host countries’ online digital freedom. Considering as many as 112 developing countries from2003to2019, and using a two-stage least squares selection modeling approach, we find an association betweenChinese FDI and four types of limits on online digital freedom. Conversely, when we substitute global FDI

(excluding Chinese FDI), we obtain different results, suggesting there is something unique about Chinese

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multinational corporations and online digital freedom. Our research indicates that China and host states’domestic leaders mutually benefit by restricting online digital freedom. 4.一切皆與中國相關(guān)？以大國視角（錯誤）解讀國內(nèi)政治（All About China?:(Mis)Reading Domestic Politics through a Great Power Lens）Petra Alderman，伯明翰大學(xué)國際發(fā)展部包容性和民主政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力博士后研究員和選舉、民主、問責(zé)制和代表制中心研究員

Duncan McCargo，南洋理工大學(xué)全球事務(wù)主席教授

Alfred Gerstl，奧洛穆茨帕拉基大學(xué)亞洲研究系副教授

James Iocovozzi，奧洛穆茨帕拉基大學(xué)亞洲研究系博士生

【摘要】本文將國際關(guān)系、批判地緣政治文獻與一項泰國的民意調(diào)查相結(jié)合，以深入研究一些很少被探索和敏感的問題，從而了解受訪者的政治觀點和態(tài)度，我們檢驗了在多大程度上可以通過中美大國的視角來理解國內(nèi)政治發(fā)展。政治上進步的泰國人更有可能支持美國，而政治上保守的泰國人更有可能支持中國嗎？雖然我們發(fā)現(xiàn)國內(nèi)政治的自由主義傾向與對美國的贊同之間存在一定的關(guān)系，但我們也表明，國內(nèi)政治的保守傾向并不會自動轉(zhuǎn)化為對中國的支持。將泰國等國的選舉結(jié)果視為一個或另一個大國的“勝利”，將是一種嚴重的誤導(dǎo)。

【原文】Combining international relations and critical geopolitics literature with a public opinion surveyinThailand that delves into some rarely explored and sensitive questions to understand respondents’ political

views and attitudes, we examine the extent to which domestic political developments can be understoodthrough a US–China great power lens. Are politically progressive Thais more likely to be pro-US, andmorepolitically conservative Thais likely to favor China? While we find some relationship between liberal

domestic political leanings and sympathy for the United States, we also show that conservative domesticpolitical leanings do not automatically translate into support for China. To view election outcomes inacountry such as Thailand as“wins”for one or other great power would be highly misleading. 【編譯：任雨欣】【責(zé)任編輯：張奕?！?/p>