2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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【編譯：陳正興】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

International Affairs，Vol.99，No.5，2023

1. 制造戰(zhàn)爭？俄羅斯方有關(guān)烏克蘭的信息（Fabricating a war? Russian

(dis)information on Ukraine）

Elisabeth Johansson-Nogués，巴塞羅那國際研究學(xué)院副教授

Elena ?imanschi， 巴塞羅那自治大學(xué)政治學(xué)、公共政策和國際關(guān)系專業(yè)博士生

【摘要】戰(zhàn)爭宣傳自古以來就是戰(zhàn)爭販子重視的一部分，因此，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前且在之后受到

俄羅斯國家控制媒體傳播的宣傳也就不足為奇了。俄羅斯的（虛假）信息宣傳運(yùn)動的更不尋常之處在

于，有關(guān)沖突的敘述是大量歪曲敘述或完全虛構(gòu)的。本文探討了俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭的背景下操縱國

內(nèi)受眾信息的內(nèi)容和技術(shù)。我們還研究了沖突前 12 個月內(nèi)公眾對俄羅斯境內(nèi)戰(zhàn)爭持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁支持的基

礎(chǔ)，盡管這些支持大多是捏造的（虛假）信息。依靠政治心理學(xué)和傳播理論，我們解釋了情感和聯(lián)想

記憶如何在俄羅斯公眾對戰(zhàn)爭的持續(xù)認(rèn)可中發(fā)揮了重要作用。研究結(jié)果表明，在缺乏對比和獨立驗證

的信息的情況下，有關(guān)烏克蘭的即插即用且華而不實的媒體包的數(shù)量、頻率和情感強(qiáng)度已經(jīng)取代和扭

曲了俄羅斯普通人的聯(lián)合社會監(jiān)控過程。

【原文】Propaganda has been an age-old part of warmongering. It is thus no surprise that the Russian invasion

of Ukraine was preceded by, and continues to be fuelled by, propaganda transmitted by state-controlled

Russian media. What is more unusual about the Russian (dis)information campaigns is the sheer volume of

distorted narratives or complete fictional accounts about the conflict. This article explores the content and

technologies of Russian information manipulation of domestic audiences in the context of the invasion of

Ukraine. We also examine the bases for the sustained robust public support for the war within Russia during

the first 12 months of the conflict, despite being based on mostly fabricated (dis)information. Relying on

political psychology and communication theory we explain how emotions and associative memories have

played an important role in the Russian public's sustained approval to the war. Our findings point to that in the

absence of contrasted and independently-verified information, the volume, frequency, emotional intensity of

slick, plug-and-play media packages on Ukraine have acted to displace and distort the average Russian's

associative social monitoring processes.

2. 傲慢平衡：古典現(xiàn)實主義、自欺欺人和普京對烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭（Hubris balancing:

classical realism, self-deception and Putin's war against Ukraine）

Ryuta Ito，廣島大學(xué)教授

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【摘要】普京為何決定在 2022 年出兵烏克蘭？結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)實主義者認(rèn)為這是一場預(yù)防性戰(zhàn)爭，具有應(yīng)對

北約東擴(kuò)的戰(zhàn)略依據(jù)。然而，正如許多學(xué)者所說，普京的決策充滿了各種非理性，這可以更好地概括

為過度平衡和古典現(xiàn)實主義的“傲慢”概念。勞倫斯·弗里德曼等人認(rèn)為，解釋普京過度平衡的關(guān)鍵

是運(yùn)用進(jìn)化心理學(xué)中的自欺欺人的概念，這也是古典現(xiàn)實主義中“傲慢”這一概念的科學(xué)基礎(chǔ)。因此，

弗里德曼關(guān)于普京自欺欺人的論點，以及其他人將自欺欺人視為過度自信原因的一般論點將自欺欺人

引入了古典現(xiàn)實主義，以解決國際事務(wù)中的過度平衡難題。由此，“傲慢平衡”這一新穎的平衡概念

應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，即：超出實踐可實現(xiàn)范圍的非理性侵略性平衡。理論將傲慢平衡為理想類型有三種因果途

徑（認(rèn)知、情感和社會）：過度自信、憤怒和民族主義。作為一項合理性調(diào)查，本研究通過分析普京

對烏克蘭發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭的決定來說明傲慢的平衡。結(jié)果顯示，正如傲慢平衡的邏輯所表明的那樣，在過度

自信和對西方自由主義的憤怒的驅(qū)使下，普京決定通過推動排他性民族主義來入侵烏克蘭。

【原文】Why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Structural realists regard it as a preventive war

with a strategic rationale in response to NATO's eastward expansion. However, as many scholars suggest,

Putin's decision-making is riddled with various irrationalities, which can be better framed as overbalancing

and the classical realist concept of ‘hubris’. Lawrence Freedman and others argue that a key to explaining

Putin's overbalancing is applying the concept of self-deception in evolutionary psychology, which can be the

scientific foundation of hubris in classical realism. Thus, Freedman's argument of Putin's self-deception and

others' general theses of self-deception as a cause of overconfidence led to the introduction of self-deception

into classical realism to solve the puzzle of overbalancing in international affairs. Thereby, the novel balancing

concept of ‘hubris balancing’ was developed: irrationally aggressive balancing that exceeds what is achievable

in practice. There are three causal pathways (cognitive, emotional and social) to hubris balancing as ideal types:

overconfidence, anger and nationalism. As a plausibility probe, hubris balancing is illustrated by analysing

Putin's decision to wage war against Ukraine. The result shows that, as the logic of hubris balancing suggests,

driven by overconfidence and anger towards western liberalism, Putin decided to invade Ukraine by driving

exclusive nationalism.

3. 保護(hù)責(zé)任的酷兒化（Queering the Responsibility to Protect）

Jess Gifkins，曼徹斯特大學(xué)高級講師

Dean Cooper-Cunningham，哥本哈根大學(xué)政治學(xué)系國際關(guān)系助理教授

【摘要】保護(hù)責(zé)任的研究在二十多年來的研究中變得越來越交叉；然而令人驚訝的是，雖然早在大屠

殺期間酷兒就遭受過暴行迫害，但對酷兒群體的迫害研究仍然存在盲點。種族滅絕研究領(lǐng)域最近逐漸

開始涉足這一領(lǐng)域，本研究也更廣泛地圍繞四種 R2P 犯罪來界定酷兒迫害。在本文中，我們闡述了

將酷兒視角納入預(yù)防暴行罪的理由和緊迫性。這不僅是對酷兒群體的關(guān)注，也是對酷兒人群的關(guān)注。

我們主張一種不斷質(zhì)疑所有權(quán)力關(guān)系的酷兒政治和道德觀。我們概述了學(xué)術(shù)研究、政策和國家對保護(hù)

責(zé)任的理解方面的差距規(guī)模。由于 R2P 經(jīng)常被西方國家視為外交政策問題，而全球南方國家則是 R2P

的對象，因此我們納入了兩個關(guān)于歐洲針對 LGBTI+人群不斷升級的迫害的案例研究，即英國和匈牙

利。我們認(rèn)為，R2P 研究和政策界應(yīng)該消除我們所說的“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的蒙蔽”，并更廣泛地參與預(yù)防暴行

的交叉方法。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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【原文】Research on the Responsibility to Protect has become increasingly intersectional with over two

decades of research; however, there remains a blind spot on the persecution of queer people. This is surprising

given that queer people have been persecuted in atrocity crimes as far back as the Holocaust. While the field

of genocide studies has recently begun to engage with this area, we frame queer persecution more broadly

around the four R2P crimes. In this article we set out the rationale and urgency for including a queer lens in

the prevention of atrocity crimes. This is not only about a focus on queer people; we argue for a queer politics

and ethics that ceaselessly interrogates all relations of power. We outline the scale of the gap in academic

research, policy and state understandings of R2P. Since R2P is often framed as a foreign policy matter by

western states, with the global South as the object of R2P, we include two case-studies on escalating

persecution against LGBTI+ people in Europe: the United Kingdom and Hungary. We argue that the R2P

research and policy communities should remove what we call the ‘cishetronormative blindfold’ and engage

more broadly with intersectional approaches to atrocity prevention.

4. 中國眼中的自我與他者：鼻子的國際政治（Chinese visions of self and Other: the

international politics of noses）

William A Callahan，倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院國際關(guān)系教授

【摘要】中國如何看待世界？雖然已經(jīng)有很多關(guān)于“如何最好地將中國的國際關(guān)系視為不排斥他者的

跨文化關(guān)系”的文章，但本文探討了如何通過中國人的面孔來形象化自我/他者關(guān)系，特別是如何通過

構(gòu)建中國人形象的標(biāo)志性圖像，構(gòu)建中國人自我，借此與“大鼻子外國人”形成對比。本研究采用解

釋主義的方法來考慮社會關(guān)系和國際關(guān)系的相互作用，以了解“外表”和“外部關(guān)系”在中國理論和

實踐中如何相互影響。本文運(yùn)用中國古典概念“深目高鼻”來比較唐朝、朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭以及二十世紀(jì)中國

和中國臺灣地區(qū)標(biāo)志性的中國鼻子圖像。這種關(guān)鍵的并置展示了外國人在中國等級社會體系中，如何

被看作為朋友和敵人。本文運(yùn)用視覺的國際關(guān)系（IR）研究方法，使我們重新審視外交實際上充滿情

感政治色彩的事實，從而理解中國的意識形態(tài)世界觀如何與其藝術(shù)家、學(xué)者和官員的審美世界觀產(chǎn)生

共鳴。世界觀決定了外交政策制定者如何構(gòu)建外交政策問題，進(jìn)而決定外交政策解決方案，因此這一

問題是國際關(guān)系學(xué)者應(yīng)當(dāng)關(guān)心的。

【原文】How does China view the world? While much has been written about how China's international

relations are best seen as intercultural relations that do not exclude the Other, this article examines how

self/Other relations are visualized in terms of the human face in China, in particular through iconic images that

construct the Chinese self with and against foreigners with large noses. It employs interpretivist methods to

consider the interplay of social relations and international relations in order to see how ‘external appearance’

and ‘external relations’ inform each other in Chinese theory and practice. It mobilizes the classical Chinese

concept ‘deep-set eyes and high-bridged nose’ to compare iconic Chinese images of noses from the Tang

dynasty, the Korean War, and twenty-first century China and Taiwan. This critical juxtaposition shows how

foreigners are visualized as both friends and enemies in a hierarchical social system. The article's use of visual

International Relations (IR) methods enables us to re-examine foreign affairs as a site of affective politics, and

thus appreciate how China's ideological world-view resonates with how its artists, scholars and officials

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aesthetically view the world. This is a concern for IR scholars because world-views shape how foreign policymakers frame foreign policy problems—and thus foreign policy solutions.

5. 亞洲人口老齡化與國家安全（Population ageing and national security in Asia）

Jennifer D Sciubba，美國外交關(guān)系協(xié)會成員

【摘要】人口老齡化在亞太地區(qū)強(qiáng)國中十分普遍，但人口老齡化的影響和應(yīng)對措施各不相同，這一情

況與最初的理論預(yù)期并不完全相符。為什么這些國家的外交政策比其人口預(yù)期的更加激進(jìn)或是軍國主

義？理解人口和國家安全的關(guān)鍵是從制度角度認(rèn)識人口變化如何與其他因素相互作用。亞太地區(qū)強(qiáng)國

之間的機(jī)構(gòu)多種多樣，這能夠解釋了它們外交政策的一些差異，同時旨在應(yīng)對或適應(yīng)這些人口變化的

政策能夠解釋其余的部分。隨著人口老齡化正在成為全球主要的人口趨勢，了解老齡化如何影響國家

的外部行為變得越來越重要。想要預(yù)測人口老齡化影響，必須準(zhǔn)確考慮機(jī)構(gòu)調(diào)節(jié)人口變化的方式，否

則將會產(chǎn)生盟友和對手的能力和意圖被嚴(yán)重低估或高估的風(fēng)險。對制度安排和軍事人力調(diào)整的討論表

明，迄今為止人口老齡化的影響在中國和俄羅斯被淡化，而日本處于管理人口老齡化導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險的

有理位置。

【原文】Population aging is pervasive in powerful states in the Asia—Pacific region, but the effects of and

responses to it vary in ways that do not neatly fit with what initial theories anticipated. Why have many of

these states' foreign policies been far more aggressive or militaristic than expected for their demographics?

The key to understanding population and national security is an institutional perspective that recognizes how

demographic changes interact with other factors. The range of institutions among the Asia—Pacific powers

explains some of the variation in their foreign policies; policies intended to respond to or adapt to those

demographic shifts explain the rest. Understanding how aging shapes states' external behaviours is

increasingly important as population aging is becoming the predominant demographic trend globally. Those

forecasting the effects of population aging must accurately account for the ways institutions mediate

demographic change, or risk severely underestimating or overestimating the capabilities and intentions of allies

and adversaries. An illustrative discussion of institutional arrangements and military manpower adaptations

demonstrates why the effect of population aging has been diluted in China and Russia thus far but suggests

that Japan is well positioned to manage the economic risks posed by an aging population.

【編譯：黃燁】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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《世界政治》（World Politics）

World Politics， Vol. 75, No.4, 2023

1. 投票反對獨裁（Voting Against Autocracy）

Milan W. Svolik，美國耶魯大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】選民何時以及如何懲罰破壞民主的政治家？為了研究公眾在民主倒退中的作用，本文制定了

一個概念框架，區(qū)分了三種機(jī)制：選票轉(zhuǎn)移、強(qiáng)烈反對和不參與。第一種機(jī)制涉及選民從破壞民主的

候選人轉(zhuǎn)向不破壞民主的候選人；而另外兩種機(jī)制涉及選民在投票和棄權(quán)之間的轉(zhuǎn)變。本文通過結(jié)合

一系列一手調(diào)查實驗、傳統(tǒng)調(diào)查和 2019 年伊斯坦布爾市長選舉的準(zhǔn)實驗提供的證據(jù)，估算了每種機(jī)

制的影響程度。在該選舉中，執(zhí)政黨正義與發(fā)展黨（AKP）試圖推翻其失敗的選舉結(jié)果。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，

盡管選票轉(zhuǎn)移和強(qiáng)烈反對在正義與發(fā)展黨最終失敗中發(fā)揮了最大作用，但在伊斯坦布爾選民的某個子

集中，三種機(jī)制都起到了民主檢驗的作用。說服、動員甚至解除動員（demobilization）都是制衡當(dāng)選

政治家威權(quán)主義傾向的有效工具。

【原文】When and how do voters punish politicians for subverting democracy? To investigate the role of the

public in democratic backsliding, I develop a conceptual framework that differentiates among three

mechanisms: vote switching, backlash, and disengagement. The first mechanism entails defection by voters

from a candidate who undermines democracy to one who does not; the latter two mechanisms entail transitions

between voting and abstention. I estimate the magnitude of each mechanism by combining evidence from a

series of original survey experiments, traditional surveys, and a quasi-experiment afforded by the rerun of the

2019 Istanbul mayoral election, in which the governing party, AKP, attempted to overturn the result of an

election that it had lost. I find that although vote switching and backlash contributed to theAKP’s eventual

defeat the most, each of the three mechanisms served as a democratic check in some subset of the Istanbul

electorate. Persuasion, mobilization, and even demobilization are all viable tools for curbing the authoritarian

tendencies of elected politicians.

2. 民族主義與扭轉(zhuǎn)國家規(guī)模的迷思（Nationalism and the Puzzle of Reversing State

Size）

《世界政治》（World Politics）創(chuàng)刊于 1948 年，是享譽(yù)國

際的政治科學(xué)季刊，內(nèi)容涵蓋國際關(guān)系和政治科學(xué)的各個

領(lǐng)域，其主編是 Deborah J. Yashar。該期刊歡迎的投稿類

型有具有理論和實證貢獻(xiàn)的研究類文章，以及有關(guān)國際關(guān)

系和比較政治問題的評論性文章。2020 年該期刊的影響

因子為 3.444，在 94 種國際關(guān)系類期刊中位列第 18 名，

在 182 種政治科學(xué)類期刊中位列第 44 名。

150

Lars-Erik Cederman，瑞士蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院國際沖突研究教授

Luc Girardin，瑞士蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院國際沖突研究專職計算機(jī)/數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)家

Carl Müller-Crepon，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院政府系助理教授

【摘要】在幾個世紀(jì)的歷史時期內(nèi)，國家領(lǐng)土面積都在不斷擴(kuò)大，但到 19 世紀(jì)末卻開始縮小，而且

這種趨勢仍在繼續(xù)。本文認(rèn)為，族裔民族主義（ethnic nationalism）引發(fā)的進(jìn)程是這一趨勢的主要驅(qū)動

力。本文的實證方法基于 19 世紀(jì)以來有關(guān)國家邊界和民族地理的時變空間數(shù)據(jù)。通過關(guān)注與民族國

家理想的偏差，本文提出國家內(nèi)部的民族分裂會導(dǎo)致國家規(guī)模的減小，而跨境的主體民族群體存在則

更可能導(dǎo)致國家擴(kuò)張。這一分析涵蓋了系統(tǒng)和國家層面，利用了國際關(guān)系二元水平的信息，以捕捉邊

界變化的特定民族主義過程，如民族分裂、統(tǒng)一和民族復(fù)辟。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管民族主義對國家領(lǐng)土既

有整合作用，也有瓦解作用，但后者的影響占主導(dǎo)地位。

【原文】Having increased for centuries, territorial state size began to decline toward the end of the nineteenth

century and has continued to do so. The authors argue that processes triggered by ethnic nationalism are the

main drivers of this development. Their empirical approach relies on time-varying spatial data on state borders

and ethnic geography since the nineteenth century. Focusing on deviations from the nation-state ideal, the

authors postulate that state internal ethnic fragmentation leads to reduction in state size and that the crossborder presence of dominant ethnic groups makes state expansion more likely. Conducted at the systemic and

state levels, the analysis exploits information at the interstate dyadic level to capture specific nationalist

processes of border change, such as ethnic secession, unification, and irredentism. The authors find that

although nationalism exerts both integrating and disintegrating effects on states' territories, it is the latter

impact that has dominated.

3. 民主與大眾對科學(xué)的懷疑（Democracy and Mass Skepticism of Science）

Junyan Jiang（蔣俊彥），美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

Kinman Wan，香港嶺南大學(xué)政府與國際事務(wù)研究助理教授

【摘要】自啟蒙時代以來，許多思想家和哲學(xué)家都將民主和科學(xué)視為現(xiàn)代性的兩個相輔相成的方面。

本文強(qiáng)調(diào)了兩者之間的緊張關(guān)系，認(rèn)為當(dāng)代民主的某些方面可能會加劇大眾的反智傾向，從而潛在地

阻礙科學(xué)進(jìn)步。本文用實證策略分析了一項新的全球科學(xué)輿論調(diào)查，利用了民主經(jīng)驗中跨國和跨群體

的差異，結(jié)果表明，民主國家中受教育程度較低的公民比非民主國家的公民更不信任科學(xué)。進(jìn)一步的

分析表明，民主國家懷疑主義的增加并不是宗教信仰增強(qiáng)或科學(xué)素養(yǎng)減弱的結(jié)果；相反，它更有可能

是由合法化模式的轉(zhuǎn)變所驅(qū)動，這種轉(zhuǎn)變降低了國家作為科學(xué)的主要公共倡導(dǎo)者的能力和意愿。本文

的發(fā)現(xiàn)揭示了許多長期民主國家中攻擊科學(xué)的制度根源。

【原文】Since the Age of Enlightenment, many thinkers and philosophers have viewed democracy and science

as two aspects of modernity that reinforce each other. This article highlights a tension between the two by

arguing that certain aspects of contemporary democracy may aggravate the mass public's anti-intellectual

tendency and thus potentially hinder scientific progress. The authors analyze a new global survey of public

opinion on science using empirical strategies that exploit cross-country and cross-cohort variations in

experience with democracy, and show that less-educated citizens in democracies distrust science much more

than do their counterparts in nondemocracies. Further analyses suggest that the increase in skepticism in

democracies is not the result of greater religiosity or weaker scientific literacy; instead, it is more likely driven

by a shift in the mode of legitimation, which reduces states’ ability and willingness to act as key public

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advocates for science. These findings shed light on the institutional sources of science-bashing in many

longstanding democracies.

4. 守護(hù)者去哪兒了？歐盟的執(zhí)法和超國家的寬容政治（Where Have the Guardians

Gone? Law Enforcement and the Politics of Supranational Forbearance in the

European Union）

R. Daniel Kelemen，美國喬治城大學(xué)麥考特公共政策學(xué)主席法學(xué)教授、戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心 (CSIS)

歐洲、俄羅斯和歐亞項目的高級研究員

Tommaso Pavone，加拿大多倫多大學(xué)政治學(xué)系歐洲政治學(xué)助理教授、挪威奧斯陸大學(xué)客座研究員

【摘要】為什么一個超國家的法律執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)突然停止行使其權(quán)力？本文提出超國家政治的“寬容”理論，

即故意不執(zhí)行法律，以及它們是如何因自由裁量權(quán)與政府間政策制定之間的交叉壓力而產(chǎn)生的。本文

關(guān)注一個典型的超國家法律執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)——歐洲委員會——為何不愿對歐盟成員國啟動違法訴訟。雖然

歐洲委員會作為一體化引擎的決策作用長期備受爭議，但其作為條約監(jiān)護(hù)者的監(jiān)察作用被認(rèn)為爭議較

小。然而，2004 年后，歐洲委員會啟動的違法訴訟的數(shù)量急劇下降。本文證明，歐洲委員會的政治領(lǐng)

導(dǎo)層對積極執(zhí)法削弱了對其政策議程的政府支持而感到擔(dān)憂。通過控制管理執(zhí)法的官員并與政府保持

和解對話，歐盟委員會犧牲了其維護(hù)條約的作用來維持其作為一體化引擎的作用。本文的研究結(jié)果強(qiáng)

調(diào)了國際機(jī)構(gòu)政治化的后果，以及兼任檢察官和政策制定者的行政人員所面臨的權(quán)衡。

【原文】Why would a supranational law enforcer suddenly refrain from wielding its powers? The authors

theorize the supranational politics of forbearance—the deliberate underenforcement of the law—and explain

how they arise from cross-pressures between prosecutorial discretion and intergovernmental policy-making.

The article then traces why an exemplary supranational enforcer—the European Commission—became

reluctant to launch infringements against European Union member states. While the Commission's policymaking role as engine of integration has been controversial, its prosecutorial role as guardian of the Treaties

has been viewed as less contentious. Yet after 2004, infringements launched by the Commission plummeted.

The authors demonstrate that the Commission's political leadership grew alarmed that aggressive enforcement

was eroding intergovernmental support for its policy agenda. By reining in the bureaucrats managing

enforcement and embracing conciliatory dialogues with governments, the Commission sacrificed its role as

guardian of the Treaties to safeguard its role as engine of integration. The article's findings highlight the

consequences of politicizing international institutions and the tradeoffs facing executives double-hatting as

prosecutors and policymakers.

5. 疫苗外交：COVID-19 疫苗分發(fā)如何增加拉丁美洲對外國政府的信任（Vaccine

Diplomacy: How COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution in Latin America Increases Trust

in Foreign Governments）

Elena Barham，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士候選人

Sarah Zukerman Daly，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授

Julian E. Gerez，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士候選人

John Marshall，美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

Oscar Pocasangre，新美國政治改革項目高級數(shù)據(jù)分析師，哥倫比亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士

【摘要】疫苗研發(fā)國在全球南方的疫苗分發(fā)為其創(chuàng)造了提升國際聲譽(yù)的機(jī)會。本文利用 2021 年初進(jìn)

行的固定樣本調(diào)查，評估了疫苗外交是否影響了拉丁美洲六個國家對外國政府的信任。在接種疫苗的

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受訪者中，他們對疫苗研發(fā)國政府的信任相對于對其他外國政府的信任有所增加。此外，提供有關(guān)受

訪者的國內(nèi)疫苗分發(fā)總量的信息，增加了符合接種條件的受訪者對提供更多疫苗的國家政府的信任。

在每種情況下，更多的信任主要反映了對共同利益動機(jī)的最新看法。本文的實證研究結(jié)果表明，疫苗

研發(fā)國的疫苗分發(fā)——尤其是來自中國的——可以培養(yǎng)有利的國際輿論。這些有利的輿論可能進(jìn)一步

促進(jìn)這些大國在經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治或軍事外交政策目標(biāo)方面的實現(xiàn)。

【原文】Vaccine distribution in the Global South has created opportunities for vaccine-developing countries

to improve their international reputations. Leveraging a panel survey conducted in early 2021, this article

evaluates whether vaccine diplomacy affects trust in foreign governments in six Latin American countries.

Among vaccinated respondents, trust in the government of the country that they believed developed their

vaccine increased relative to trust in the governments of other foreign powers. Furthermore, providing

information about the aggregate distribution of vaccines within a respondent's country increased vaccineeligible respondents' trust in the governments of countries from which more vaccines were delivered. In each

case, greater trust principally reflects updated perceptions of a common good motivation. The article's

empirical findings suggest that vaccine distribution—especially by China, but for other vaccine-developing

countries as well—can cultivate favorable international public opinion. These favorable opinions may in turn

facilitate great powers' economic, political, or military foreign policy goals.

【編譯：林怡娉】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

《國際研究評論》（Review of International Studies）

Review of International Studies， Vol. 49, No. 5, 2023

1. 存在主義與國際關(guān)系：深陷其中（Existentialism and International Relations: In it

up to our necks）

Andrew R. Hom，英國愛丁堡大學(xué)社會與政治學(xué)系國際關(guān)系高級講師，《國際研究評論》聯(lián)合主編

Cian O’Driscoll，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)珊瑚貝爾亞太事務(wù)學(xué)院教授

【摘要】本文想要探討，當(dāng)代國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)與存在主義的知識和文化傳統(tǒng)之間有什么關(guān)系？我們的學(xué)

科是如何受到存在主義思想的啟發(fā)和激勵的？存在主義是需要被國際關(guān)系學(xué)者恢復(fù)、主張和接受的遺

《國際研究評論》（Review of International Studies）是由

劍橋大學(xué)出版社代表英國國際研究協(xié)會出版且同行評審

的國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)期刊，其前身為 British Journal of

International Studies (1975 - 1980)。該期刊致力于反映全

球政治的性質(zhì)變化和新興的政治挑戰(zhàn)，旨在為國際社會搭

建一個可供辯論的平臺用以討論當(dāng)下緊迫的全球議題。

2020 年該期刊的影響因子為 2.73。

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產(chǎn)，還是需要逃避的陰影？這些問題并非純粹理論意義上的。無論彼時還是此時，思考這些問題都具

有實際和政治方面的原因。生活在一個被稱之為“焦慮時代”的時期，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己幾乎每時每刻都面

臨著存在主義問題和存在主義思想。然而，目前尚不清楚這個貌似存在主義的時刻究竟有多大的重要

性和意義。存在主義對當(dāng)代國際關(guān)系有什么借鑒意涵，或者僅僅是在奉承欺騙？本文認(rèn)為，考慮存在

主義與國際關(guān)系和全球政治的關(guān)系的時機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟。這是本文的目的，也是本期特刊文章的目的。

【原文】What, this essay asks, is the relation between contemporary IR scholarship and the existentialist

intellectual and cultural tradition? How is our discipline informed and animated by existentialist thinking? Is

existentialism a heritage to be recovered, claimed, and embraced by IR scholars, or a shadow to be escaped?

And what resources does it furnish us for thinking through the kind of issues that IR scholars are called upon

to grapple with today? These questions are not purely theoretical. There are practical and political reasons, not

only for considering them, but for considering them now. Living through what has been termed an unfolding

‘Age of Anxiety’, we find ourselves confronted by existential questions and existentialist ideas at almost every

turn. It is, however, unclear how substantive or meaningful this apparently existentialist moment truly is. Does

existentialism have something to say to contemporary IR, or does it flatter to deceive? We think the time is

ripe to take stock of existentialism as it relates to IR and global politics. This is the purpose of this article and

of the collection of essays it introduces.

2. “沒有人可以關(guān)上人類死去的眼睛”：薩特、阿隆和核時代存在主義的局限（‘No

one around to shut the dead eyes of the human race’: Sartre, Aron, and the limits of

existentialism in the Nuclear Age）

Benjamin Zala，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)國際關(guān)系專業(yè)高級講師，珊瑚貝爾亞洲及太平洋學(xué)院研究員

【摘要】核時代的定義源于“存在威脅”（existential threat）的概念。單憑一類武器就能摧毀整個人類

社會，引發(fā)了關(guān)于人類存在的深刻問題，甚至提供了一種新的物種滅絕形式——“熱核滅絕”

（thermonuclear omnicide）。不出所料，存在主義是在原子彈陰影下站穩(wěn)腳跟的哲學(xué)。本文探討了應(yīng)

對核危險的存在主義方法的可能性和局限性，對比了兩位早期存在主義核心人物的觀點：讓·保羅·薩

特和雷蒙·阿隆。薩特對核戰(zhàn)爭的存在威脅表達(dá)了道德方面的憤慨，譴責(zé)推動軍備競賽的冷戰(zhàn)政治的

“虛幻性”，并提出了拒絕軍國主義社會規(guī)范的存在主義呼吁。阿隆是早期國際關(guān)系現(xiàn)實主義的關(guān)鍵人

物，他以拒絕存在主義而聞名，提出應(yīng)為國際社會建立規(guī)范以更好地制約核武器決策。本文將薩特和

阿隆在二戰(zhàn)后的討論帶入新世紀(jì)，認(rèn)為核武器帶來的持續(xù)甚至日益增長的威脅凸顯了薩特方法在指導(dǎo)

現(xiàn)代生活中真實存在方面的局限性。相反，本文支持阿隆更為保守的方法，但也借鑒存在主義對其進(jìn)

行擴(kuò)展，為了人類的生存而加強(qiáng)核禁忌，將其作為一項持久而緊迫的政治工程。當(dāng)國際關(guān)系學(xué)者和分

析人士再次對全球秩序脆弱的規(guī)范提出批評，并推測“第三次核時代”的到來之際，對存在威脅的政治

及其所帶來的艱難選擇進(jìn)行理論反思仍然是國際關(guān)系理論工具箱中不可或缺的一部分。雖然薩特和其

他存在主義者令人信服地認(rèn)為“存在”先于“本質(zhì)”，但阿隆提醒我們，“生存”仍然是兩者的先決條件。

【原文】The Nuclear Age is said to be defined by the notion of existential threat. The ability to destroy human

societies in their entirety with a single class of weaponry raises profound questions about human existence. It

even gives us a new form of species extinction – ‘thermonuclear omnicide’. Unsurprisingly, existentialism

was a philosophy that found its feet in the shadow of the bomb. This article explores the possibilities and limits

of an existentialist approach to nuclear dangers. It contrasts the views of two figures central to early

existentialism: Jean-Paul Sartre and Raymond Aron. Sartre responded to the existential threat of nuclear war

with moral outrage about the ‘unreality’ of the Cold War politics driving the arms race and an existentialist

call to reject militaristic social norms. Aron, a key figure in early IR realism, famously rejected existentialism

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and turned instead to outlining norms for an international society that might better restrain nuclear-armed

decision-makers. Bringing Sartre’s and Aron’s post-Second World War discussions into the new century, this

article argues that the ongoing, and even growing, threats posed by nuclear weapons highlight the limits of

Sartre’s approach as a guide to authentic existence in modern life. Instead, it supports Aron’s more

conservative approach but also draws on Existentialism to extend it, strengthening the nuclear taboo for the

sake of human survival as a persistent but urgent political project. At a moment in IR when scholars and other

analysts are once again critiquing the fragile norms of global order and speculating about the dawn of a ‘Third

Nuclear Age’, theoretical reflection on the politics of existential threats and the hard choices they entail remain

indispensable aspects of IR’s theoretical toolkit. While Sartre and other existentialists argued convincingly

that existence precedes essence, Aron reminds us that survival remains a precondition for both.

3. 核武器、存在主義和國際關(guān)系：安德斯、巴拉德和滅絕時代的人類狀況（Nuclear

weapons, existentialism, and International Relations: Anders, Ballard, and the

human condition in the age of extinction）

Rens van Munster，丹麥國際問題研究所高級研究員

【摘要】國際關(guān)系學(xué)者越來越多地轉(zhuǎn)向存在主義者的著作，以理解 21 世紀(jì)多重且復(fù)雜的地球危機(jī)。

本文認(rèn)為兩位戰(zhàn)后知識分子，格爾·安德斯（1902-1992）和 J·D·巴拉德（1930-2009），為此類學(xué)術(shù)研

究提供了豐富的知識遺產(chǎn)和啟發(fā)。兩位作者在戰(zhàn)后技術(shù)加速和核武器發(fā)展的背景下，批判且創(chuàng)造性地

重新審視了存在主義的核心思想。對安德斯和巴拉德來說，核武器象征著與技術(shù)現(xiàn)代性相關(guān)的病癥，

而且是最極端的表現(xiàn)：大規(guī)模消費、驚人的暴力、衰微的情感，以及人類在心理上越來越無法處理和

掌握科學(xué)技術(shù)的破壞性能力。為了對抗這些趨勢，他們都堅定地依靠超現(xiàn)實主義來增強(qiáng)人類的想象力，

將其作為個人和社會變革的催化劑。本文認(rèn)為他們的研究提供了一個機(jī)會，將核武器在國際關(guān)系中的

研究與更廣泛的存在主義問題重新聯(lián)系起來，并表明他們各自試圖將人類在核時代的前景展望為“走

向滅絕”。對近來試圖將國際關(guān)系重新集中于關(guān)于地球的滅絕想象的研究而言，兩位學(xué)者的研究具有

重要的借鑒意義。

【原文】IR scholars increasingly turn to the writings of Existentialists to make sense of the multiple and

entangled planetary crises that characterise the twenty-first century. In this article, I argue that two postwar

intellectuals, Günther Anders (1902–1992) and J. G. Ballard (1930–2009), offer a rich intellectual ancestry

and inspiration to such scholarship. Both authors critically and creatively reworked central Existentialist ideas

in the context of postwar technological acceleration and the development of nuclear weapons. To Anders and

Ballard, nuclear weapons symbolised, and were the most extreme manifestation of, the pathologies they

associated with technological modernity: mass consumption, spectacular violence, a deadening of affect, and

an increased inability of humans to psychologically process and grasp the destructive capacities of science and

technology. To counter these trends, they both firmly relied on Surrealism to bolster the human imagination

as a catalysator for personal and social transformation. I argue that their work offers an opportunity to

reconnect the study of nuclear weapons in IR to broader existentialist questions and suggest that their

respective attempts to foreground human being in the nuclear age as ‘being-towards-extinction’ holds

important lessons for recent attempts to recentre the study of IR around planetary imaginaries of extinction.

4. 瑪麗·雪萊的《最后之人》：存在主義和國際關(guān)系與后世界末日流行病小說的相遇

（Mary Shelley's The Last Man: Existentialism and IR meet the post-apocalyptic

pandemic novel）

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Eileen M. Hunt，美國圣母大學(xué)政治科學(xué)教授，那諾維奇歐洲研究所研究員，兼任性別研究教師

【摘要】瑪麗·雪萊利用國際思想的理念創(chuàng)作了現(xiàn)代政治科幻小說（poliscifi）三個新的子類型：后世

界末日、存在主義和反烏托邦。她的兩部重要的政治科幻作品《弗蘭肯斯坦》（1818）和《最后之人》

（1826）都探討了人類對更廣泛環(huán)境進(jìn)行技術(shù)和文化干預(yù)所引發(fā)的社會問題。本文不僅將《最后之人》

作為第一部現(xiàn)代后世界末日流行病小說，而且將其作為存在主義傳統(tǒng)、反烏托邦文學(xué)、以及兩者與本

文稱之為“文學(xué)國際關(guān)系”交匯的重要來源。比較《最后之人》及其可能的來源和影響——從修昔底德

和瓦泰爾到奧威爾和加繆——揭示了雪萊對人際沖突和國際沖突重疊問題的倫理和政治關(guān)注?！蹲詈?/p>

之人》戲劇化地描述了人際沖突如果不加以控制，會如何演變成更廣泛的社會政治不公正，包括暴力、

戰(zhàn)爭和其他人為災(zāi)難，如物種滅絕、流行病，以及更多隱喻性的“存在主義”瘟疫，如孤獨和絕望。盡

管包含了黑暗的主題和遺產(chǎn)，雪萊作為十九世紀(jì)偉大的災(zāi)難小說家，也激發(fā)了瑪格麗特·阿特伍德、奧

克塔維亞·巴特勒和艾米麗·圣約翰·曼德爾對女權(quán)主義政治中的危機(jī)和沖突做出真正充滿希望的后世

界末日存在主義回應(yīng)。

【原文】Mary Shelley mined the ideas of international thought to help develop three new subgenres of modern

political science fiction (‘poliscifi’): post-apocalyptic, existential, and dystopian. Her two great works of

poliscifi, Frankenstein (1818), and The Last Man (1826) – confront the social problems that arise from

humanity's technological and cultural interventions in the wider environment. This article recovers The Last

Man not only as the first modern post-apocalyptic pandemic novel, but also as an important source for the

existentialist tradition, dystopian literature, and their intersections with what I call ‘Literary IR’. Comparing

The Last Man with its probable sources and influences – from Thucydides and Vattel to Orwell and Camus –

reveals Shelley's ethical and political concerns with the overlapping problems of interpersonal and

international conflict. The Last Man dramatises how interpersonal conflict, if left unchecked, can spiral into

the wider sociopolitical injustices of violence, war, and other human-made disasters such as species extinction,

pandemics, and more metaphorical ‘existential’ plagues like loneliness and despair. Despite these dark themes

and legacies, Shelley's authorship of the great plague novel of the nineteenth century also inspired a truly

hopeful post-apocalyptic existential response to crisis and conflict in feminist poliscifi by Margaret Atwood,

Octavia Butler, and Emily St. John Mandel.

5. 國際關(guān)系該如何應(yīng)對“世界末日”？人類世的存在焦慮和可能性（How should IR

deal with the “end of the world”? Existential anxieties and possibilities in the

Anthropocene）

Dahlia Simangan，IDEC 研究所、和平與可持續(xù)發(fā)展教育與研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)（NERPS）及廣島大學(xué)人文社

會科學(xué)研究生院副教授

【摘要】人類世（Anthropocene），意指一個人類影響地球的新地質(zhì)時代，已不再是國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的

新面孔。一些學(xué)者已經(jīng)認(rèn)識到人類世對理論化國際關(guān)系的價值和危險。本文側(cè)重于源自國際關(guān)系與人

類世交互中的存在主義問題和思想，特別關(guān)注圍繞人類物種滅絕、“人類”（Anthropos）的意義以及人

類對管理地球產(chǎn)生的焦慮。通過借鑒關(guān)于這些身體、精神和道德焦慮的學(xué)術(shù)話語，本文認(rèn)為存在主義

思維有助于揭示國際關(guān)系的人類中心主義、普遍主義和傲慢傾向，這在更廣泛的人類世話語中也是普

遍存在的。存在主義還提醒我們，在這個新地質(zhì)時代，盡管缺乏確定性，但我們可以自由地探索各種

可能性，重新構(gòu)想人類和國際關(guān)系作為一門學(xué)科的地位。因此，存在主義揭示了國際關(guān)系與人類世帶

來的悖論和不確定性之間的不和諧之處，同時提供了通向理論化“世界末日”的途徑。

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【原文】The Anthropocene, a proposed new geological age marking the planetary impact of humanity, is no

longer a newcomer to the field of International Relations (IR). Several scholars have recognised the value, as

well as the danger, of the Anthropocene for theorising international relations. This article focuses on the

existentialist questions and ideas derived from IR’s engagement with the Anthropocene, particularly on the

anxieties surrounding the extinction of the human species, the meaning of the Anthropos, and humanity’s

planetary stewardship. By drawing on scholarly discourses on these physical, spiritual, and moral anxieties, I

argue that existentialist thinking helps expose IR’s anthropocentric, universalist, and hubristic tendencies,

which are also prevalent in the broader Anthropocene discourse. It also serves as a reminder of the freedom to

explore possibilities, albeit with a lack of certainty, for reimagining the place of humanity and IR as a discipline

in this new geological age. Therefore, existentialism reveals IR’s dissonance with the paradoxes and

uncertainties that the Anthropocene brings while offering a path toward theorising the “end of the world”.

6. 衷心的真理：走向存在主義的戰(zhàn)爭倫理（Heartfelt truths: Towards an existentialist

ethics of war）

Cian O'Driscoll，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)珊瑚貝爾亞太事務(wù)學(xué)院教授

【摘要】正義戰(zhàn)爭理論似乎與其所聲稱管理的實踐——戰(zhàn)爭——日益疏離。作為一種越來越抽象和深

奧的論述，它似乎與實際戰(zhàn)爭泥濘和血腥的現(xiàn)實相去甚遠(yuǎn)。這反映了研究戰(zhàn)爭倫理和研究戰(zhàn)爭親身經(jīng)

歷之間更為廣泛的脫節(jié)。為解決這個問題，本文提出一個問題：我們?nèi)绾问拐x戰(zhàn)爭思想重新成為一

種“活生生的”理論？本文認(rèn)為可以通過恢復(fù)與存在主義的歷史對話，將正義戰(zhàn)爭理論與戰(zhàn)爭的生活經(jīng)

驗重新聯(lián)系起來。通過運(yùn)用艾伯特·加繆關(guān)于政治暴力著作的視角來解讀正義戰(zhàn)爭理論，從而發(fā)展了

這一立場。本文結(jié)論在于，加繆的政治思想為正義戰(zhàn)爭理論模式的發(fā)展提供了一系列標(biāo)識，這種模式

將戰(zhàn)爭的親身經(jīng)歷置于思考戰(zhàn)爭倫理的核心。

【原文】Just war theory appears ever more alienated from the practice it ostensibly regulates, warfare. An

increasingly abstract and esoteric discourse, it can seem very remote from the mud-and-blood actualities of

warfare. This is reflective of a broader disconnect between the study of, on the one hand, the ethics of war,

and, on the other, the lived experience of war. Seeking to address this problem, this article asks: How can we

recentre just war thinking as a ‘lived’ theory? It proposes that we can reconnect just war theory to the lived

experience of warfare by restoring its historical dialogue with existentialism. It develops this position by

reading just war theory through the prism of Albert Camus's writings on political violence. It concludes that

Camus's political thoughts provides a set of signposts for the development of a mode of just war theorising

that places that the lived experience of warfare at the heart of our ethical thinking about war.

7. 海德格爾的遺產(chǎn)：真實性的時間政治，過去和現(xiàn)在（Heidegger’s heritage: The

temporal politics of authenticity, then and now）

Andrew R. Hom，英國愛丁堡大學(xué)社會與政治學(xué)系國際關(guān)系高級講師，《國際研究評論》聯(lián)合主編

【摘要】國際關(guān)系是具有哲學(xué)和時間敏感性的學(xué)科。然而奇怪的是，被廣泛認(rèn)為是二十世紀(jì)最重要的

哲學(xué)家的馬丁·海德格爾直到最近才開始受到該學(xué)科關(guān)注。同樣值得注意的是，在國際關(guān)系開始應(yīng)對

右翼極端主義問題時，并未涉及海德格爾的法西斯主義政治。通過仔細(xì)研讀海德格爾對時間中存在的

描述，本文認(rèn)為海德格爾在其巨著和最后的日記中預(yù)示了許多存在主義討論，但他對時間、暫時性和

真實存在的特殊概念使政治生活瀕臨危險。仔細(xì)審視海德格爾思想的概念和實踐結(jié)果，本文追溯了其

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

157

主張的關(guān)鍵沖突，即為了實現(xiàn)真正的自我，我們必須在通往死亡的道路上克服社會時間。這種對抗鼓

勵了過度個性化和侵略性的思想和行動習(xí)慣，拒絕了共存的可能性。我們可以從海德格爾對真實性的

癡迷如何隨著時間的推移將他推向納粹主義的深淵，以及他的存在主義話語如何在今天的右翼復(fù)興中

回響看到這一點。將真實性放在當(dāng)時和現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行對比有助于突顯海德格爾存在主義和當(dāng)今存在主義政

治的獨特時間動態(tài)。

【原文】For a discipline as philosophically and temporally sensitive as International Relations, it is curious

that Martin Heidegger, widely considered the most important philosopher of the twentieth century, has only

recently begun to receive disciplinary attention. It is also noteworthy that as IR begins to grapple with rightwing extremism, it has not addressed Heidegger’s fascist politics. Conducting a close reading of his account

of existence in time, this article argues that from his magnum opus to his final diaries, Heidegger prefigured

many existentialist discussions, but his particular conceptualisations of time, temporality, and authentic Being

lent political life a dangerous edge. Scrutinising both the conceptual and practical consequences of Heidegger’s

thought, this article traces key tensions in his claims that, to realise true Selfhood, we must overcome social

time on the road to death. This antagonism encourages overly individuated and aggressive habits of thought

and action that reject the possibilities of co-existence. We can see this in how Heidegger’s obsession with

authenticity over time pushed him deeper into Nazism, and in the ways that his existential vernacular resounds

through today’s right-wing renaissance. Juxtaposing authenticity, then and now, helps draw out the

distinctively temporal dynamics of Heidegger’s existentialism as well as the existential politics of our time.

8. 本體論安全、神話和存在主義（Ontological security, myth, and existentialism）

Xander Kirke，英國諾森比亞大學(xué)社會科學(xué)系助理教授

Brent J. Steele，美國猶他大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授，《全球研究季刊》聯(lián)合主編

【摘要】本文通過考察在本體論安全研究中重新出現(xiàn)的存在主義主題為本期特刊做出了貢獻(xiàn)，并通過

提出有關(guān)神話和本體安全功能的未充分探討且相互交疊的領(lǐng)域來實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。通過講述、重述和調(diào)

整神話以適應(yīng)“存在需求”（existential needs）的過程，需要避免布盧門貝格所謂的“現(xiàn)實的絕對主義”

（absolutism of reality）。本文區(qū)分了此處在本體論安全研究中引入存在主義與該研究領(lǐng)域中其他同類

型的引入，然后從最近的 Covid-19 大流行中提取了關(guān)于神話的工作的例子。談到本體論安全需要發(fā)

展一種道德—政治視角，不僅要解釋而且要改變世界，本文對此的解釋也為基于反神話的替代政治提

供了一條途徑。因此，面對日益抬頭的威權(quán)主義和反民主力量，本文揭示了一種有希望的、必要的道

德意識，即關(guān)于在 21 世紀(jì) 20 年代及以后應(yīng)該做什么、如何面對和應(yīng)對日益嚴(yán)峻的全球政治挑戰(zhàn)的規(guī)

范性思想。

【原文】This paper contributes to this special issue by examining the existentialist themes re-emerging in

Ontological Security Studies (OSS) and does so by proposing an under-explored and overlapping terrain

regarding the function of myths and ontological security. What Blumenberg calls the ‘a(chǎn)bsolutism of reality’

becomes something to avoid through the process of telling, retelling, and adapting myths to suit our existential

needs. The paper distinguishes our existentialist intervention into OSS from recent ones within that research

community and then draws examples of the work on and of myth from the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking to the need for OSS to develop an ethical-political perspective to not only explain but also change

the world, the account we develop here also provides a pathway for an alternative politics based in countermyth. It discloses, therefore, a promising and, in the face of rising authoritarianism and anti-democratic forces,

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necessary moral ethos regarding prescriptive ideas about what to do and how to confront and and counter the

mounting challenges of global politics in the 2020s and beyond.

9. 離散情感國際關(guān)系的《自由之路》：重讀讓·保羅·薩特的國際關(guān)系三部曲（IR's

Roads to Freedom: Rereading Jean-Paul Sartre's trilogy as an International

Relations text）

Lucian M. Ashworth，加拿大紐芬蘭紀(jì)念大學(xué)政治科學(xué)教授

【摘要】《自由之路》是讓-保爾·薩特在 1938 年至 1940 年導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭和法國陷落的一系列危機(jī)背景下

創(chuàng)作的三部曲。本文主張《自由之路》可以被看作是一部國際關(guān)系學(xué)的文本，并集中討論了四個方面。

首先，重新聚焦于日常生活的國際關(guān)系。其次，從存在主義的角度解剖危機(jī)，豐富對危機(jī)的理解。第

三，主要角色的互動如何揭示了“疏遠(yuǎn)的調(diào)解”（Der Derian 在 1987 年《論外交》中首次探討）在外交

中的核心。第四，質(zhì)疑在國際關(guān)系中強(qiáng)調(diào)了解危機(jī)原因的核心地位。相反，《自由之路》重新聚焦我

們對日常國際關(guān)系中多樣化效應(yīng)的關(guān)注。本文論點與作者第一次閱讀三部曲的個人經(jīng)歷緊密結(jié)合，并

闡述了三部曲如何影響作者選擇研究國際關(guān)系。

【原文】Jean-Paul Sartre's trilogy Roads to Freedom is written against the backdrop of the crises between

1938 and 1940 that led to war and the Fall of France. In this article I argue that Roads to Freedom can be read

as an IR text, and I concentrate on four areas. First, a refocusing on the international relations of the everyday.

Second, the anatomy of a crisis from an existentialist viewpoint that can enrich our understanding of crises.

Third how the interactions of the main characters reveal the ‘mediation of estrangement’ at the heart of

diplomacy, first explored by Der Derian in his 1987 On Diplomacy. Fourth, it calls into question our emphasis

in IR on the centrality of causes to understand a crisis. Rather, Roads to Freedom refocuses our gaze on the

diverse effects in everyday IR. The argument of the article is interwoven with my own experiences reading

the trilogy for the first time, and how it influenced my decision to study IR.

【編譯：林怡娉】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

159

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）

Cambridge Review of International Affairs， Vol.36, No.5, October 2023

1. 預(yù)防性軍事打擊還是預(yù)防性戰(zhàn)爭？權(quán)力資源的可替代性（Preventive military strike

or preventive war? The fungibility of power resources）

Steven E. Lobell，猶他大學(xué)政治學(xué)系的教授

【摘要】預(yù)防性戰(zhàn)爭的差異性增長率解釋假定了權(quán)力資源具有高度可替代性。也就是說，它們假定一

個國家的權(quán)力資源可以輕易、快速地“移動”為實際軍事能力。這種“單維和無差別”的基線掩蓋了預(yù)防

性軍事打擊和預(yù)防性戰(zhàn)爭動機(jī)的重要區(qū)別。在認(rèn)為權(quán)力資源可替代性低的條件下，為了防止或阻止預(yù)

期的不利權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人有強(qiáng)烈的動機(jī)發(fā)動有限的預(yù)防性軍事打擊。相反，如果權(quán)力的可替代性較

高，則只有預(yù)防性打擊，而非所有預(yù)防性行動的可能性較低。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人有強(qiáng)烈的動機(jī)發(fā)動預(yù)防性戰(zhàn)爭，

包括全面入侵和征服，旨在破壞和/或摧毀挑戰(zhàn)者的許多權(quán)力資產(chǎn)，包括不具威脅性的資產(chǎn)。本文將探

討以色列為推遲伊拉克（1981 年）和敘利亞（2007 年）的核武器計劃而決定使用預(yù)防性軍事力量，

特別是軍事打擊的情況。

【原文】Differential rates of growth explanations for preventive war assume that power resources are highly

fungible. That is, they assume that a state’s power resources are easily and quickly ‘moveable’ into practical

military capability. This ‘unidimensional and undifferentiated’ baseline obscures an important distinction in

the motivations for preventive military strikes and preventive wars. To forestall or block an anticipated adverse

power shift, under conditions of perceived low fungibility of power resources, leaders have strong motivation

to launch a limited preventive military strike. High fungibility of power, in contrast, makes only preventive

strikes—not all preventive action—less likely. Leaders have strong motivations to launch preventive wars,

including all-out invasion and conquest, aimed at damaging and/or destroying many of the challenger’s power

assets, including non-threatening ones. In this article, I examine Israel’s decision to use preventive military

force, and specifically military strikes, to delay Iraq’s (1981) and Syria’s (2007) nuclear weapons programs.

2. 關(guān)于 \"一帶一路 \"倡議的政治媒體話語框架分析：來自中國、澳大利亞、印度、日

本、英國和美國的證據(jù)（A frame analysis of political-media discourse on the Belt

and Road Initiative: evidence from China, Australia, India, Japan, the United

Kingdom, and the United States）

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行評審期刊，發(fā)表關(guān)于國際事務(wù)的創(chuàng)新

學(xué)術(shù)成果。其涵蓋社會科學(xué)領(lǐng)域，包括國際關(guān)系、歷史、

法律、政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、地區(qū)研究、發(fā)展研究和性別研究。它

致力于采用多樣化的方法和方法，并鼓勵學(xué)術(shù)界和政策制

定者提交多學(xué)科和跨學(xué)科的貢獻(xiàn)。其 2021 年的影響因子

為 2.492，在 96 種國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 33。

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楊海，中山大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院副教授

Baldwin Van Gorp，魯汶大學(xué)媒體研究所新聞與傳播學(xué)教授

【摘要】本文試圖剖析關(guān)于“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）日益兩極分化的討論，并通過識別框架形式的不

同解釋，分析在辯論中突出的參與者的競爭框架實踐，提供對其的整體理解。為此，本文利用文化框

架和內(nèi)容分析的概念見解，專門構(gòu)建了來自中國、印度、美國、日本、英國和澳大利亞的“一帶一路”

政治和媒體傳播語料庫。它首先在五個維度上識別、重建且并列了 14 個文化嵌入框架：中國的意圖

（策略、零和游戲、平等）、“一帶一路”對其他國家的影響（不利、不平衡、有利）、高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的遵守

（低于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、合格、達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)）、結(jié)果（顛簸、全面、成功）以及與過去的聯(lián)系（新瓶裝陳酒、歷史

遺產(chǎn)）。隨后的演繹分析，沿著 14 個框架的思路，揭示了構(gòu)成中國對“一帶一路”的話語合法性的核心

主張，中國官員與外國政治媒體精英之間的顯著差異，外國政府對“一帶一路”的立場的連續(xù)性或變化

及其理由，以及外國精英媒體越來越多的批評性報道。

【原文】The article seeks to unpack the increasingly polarised discussion on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

and provide a holistic understanding of it by identifying the diverging interpretations in the form of frames

and analysing the competing framing practices of actors figuring prominently in the debate. To that end, this

study leverages conceptual insights from cultural framing and content-analyses a purpose-built corpus of

political and media communications on the BRI gathered from China, India, the US, Japan, the UK and

Australia. It first identifies, reconstructs and juxtaposes 14 culturally-embedded frames along five dimensions:

China’s intensions (Ploy, Zero-sum game, Equality), the BRI’s implications for other countries (Bane,

Lopsided, Boon), compliance with high standards (Below par, Qualified yes, Up to par), outcomes (Bumpy

ride, Catchall, Off with a bang), and linkage to the past (Old wine in new bottles, Historical legacy). A

subsequent deductive analysis, along the lines of the 14 frames, sheds light on the core claims constituting

China’s discursive legitimation of the BRI, the salient difference between Chinese officials and foreign

political-media elites, the continuity or change in the position on the BRI taken by foreign governments and

their justifications, and the increasing critical coverage by foreign elite media.

3. 外交政策中的海外經(jīng)濟(jì)利益視角——中國案例研究（Overseas economic interest

perspective in foreign policy—a case study of China）

龔炯，對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)系教授

李銀珠，浙江工商大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)教研室主任

【摘要】本文認(rèn)為，海外經(jīng)濟(jì)利益和傳統(tǒng)的非經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，如政治主權(quán)和領(lǐng)土完整，構(gòu)成了一個國家

綜合國家安全體系的重要組成部分。為了更好地理解一個國家外交政策理論的海外經(jīng)濟(jì)維度，本文

開發(fā)了一個分析框架，該框架受到多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化比例分析方法（Multi-MOORA）的啟發(fā)，該方法量化

了一個國家根據(jù)具體風(fēng)險因素調(diào)整的海外經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。以中國為例，借助涵蓋 2013 年至 2017 年期間

與中國有經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系的 172 個國家的數(shù)據(jù)集，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，自“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）以來，出于地緣政

治和意識形態(tài)考慮以及重大的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益，中國的外交政策重點放在了發(fā)展中國家。保護(hù)這些海外經(jīng)

濟(jì)利益對于建立相較于西方公司的優(yōu)勢是必要的，西方公司目前避開了許多有問題的國家。

【原文】We argue that overseas economic interests and traditional non-economic aspects such as political

sovereignty and territorial integrity constitute important parts of a country’s integrative national security set.

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To enable a better understanding of the overseas economic dimension of a country’s foreign policy rationale,

we develop an analytic framework inspired by the Multi-Objective Optimisation by Ratio Analysis approach

(Multi-MOORA), which quantifies a country’s overseas economic interests adjusted by country-specific risk

factors. Using China as an example, aided by a dataset covering 172 countries with economic ties with China

spanning a period from 2013 to 2017, we show that its foreign policy focus in developing countries since the

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) motivated by geopolitical and ideological considerations as well as significant

economic interest. Protection of these overseas economic interests is imperative to establish an advantage over

Western firms which presently avoid many of the countries in question.

4. 東地中海難題的地緣政治解釋：主權(quán)、均勢和能源安全考慮因素（A geopolitical

account of the Eastern Mediterranean conundrum: sovereignty, balance of power

and energy security considerations）

Filippos Proedrou，南威爾士大學(xué)研究員

【摘要】本文從地緣政治的角度解釋了東地中海地區(qū)不斷演變的緊張局勢。更具體地說，本文從概念

上解讀了主權(quán)、力量平衡和能源安全問題如何推動勘探計劃并形成管道政治。首先，東地中海新天然

氣礦藏的發(fā)現(xiàn)給土耳其對塞浦路斯、希臘和埃及的主權(quán)帶來了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。其次，希臘和塞浦路斯與以

色列和埃及結(jié)盟，以制衡土耳其。這些國家推動的指定管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施有助于加強(qiáng)其主權(quán)，鞏固其聯(lián)盟

關(guān)系，共同擺出對土耳其的姿態(tài)。第三，俄羅斯在地緣政治上的強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度促使歐盟委員會大力支持東

地中海的天然氣計劃，以加強(qiáng)能源安全，促進(jìn)能源多樣化，平衡俄羅斯的威脅。這三個主要目標(biāo)共同

構(gòu)成了該地區(qū)不斷演變的難題。

【原文】This paper provides a geopolitical lens to explain the evolving tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

More specifically, it unpacks conceptually how sovereignty, balance of power and energy security concerns

drive exploration schemes and forge pipeline politics. First, the discovery of new gas deposits in the Eastern

Mediterranean have created significant Turkish challenges to Cypriot, Greek and Egyptian sovereignty.

Second, Greece and Cyprus have allied with both Israel and Egypt to balance against Turkey. The designated

pipeline infrastructure these countries promote serves to enhance their sovereignty and cement their alliance

and joint posturing vis-à-vis Turkey. Third, Russia’s geopolitical assertiveness has led the European

Commission to vigorously back gas schemes in the Eastern Mediterranean to enhance energy security, promote

diversification and balance against the Russian threat. Together, these three prime objectives account for the

evolving conundrum in the region.

5. 全球南部的區(qū)域間主義：與區(qū)域外、超區(qū)域、跨區(qū)域和泛區(qū)域主義的比較（Interregionalism in the Global South: comparison with extra-, cross-, trans-, and panregionalism）

Shintaro Hamanaka（濱中慎太郎），日本發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究所高級研究員

【摘要】任何地區(qū)都不是孤立存在的。各地區(qū)總是有一些外部聯(lián)系。現(xiàn)有的關(guān)于地區(qū)對外關(guān)系的研究

往往強(qiáng)調(diào)區(qū)域間主義，即把兩個地區(qū)主義項目聯(lián)系起來。這些研究大多涉及歐洲聯(lián)盟（歐盟）與其他

地區(qū)的區(qū)域主義之間的聯(lián)系。然而，歐盟是非常獨特的，因為它的對外政策集中在布魯塞爾，而區(qū)域

間主義自然在形成該地區(qū)的對外關(guān)系中起著主導(dǎo)作用。本研究試圖利用全球南部各地區(qū)的合作項目案

例，對區(qū)域間主義進(jìn)行比較分析。通過研究東南亞和南亞以及南美洲和南部非洲的合作項目網(wǎng)絡(luò)，本

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研究探討了區(qū)域間主義是對其他合作形式（包括區(qū)域外、超區(qū)域、跨區(qū)域和泛區(qū)域主義）的替代還是

補(bǔ)充。

【原文】No region exists in isolation. Regions always have some external linkages. Existing studies on regions’

external relations often emphasise inter-regionalism, namely, a project to link two regionalism projects. The

majority of these studies deals with the European Union’s (EU) ties with regionalism elsewhere. However, the

EU is very unique, because its external policies are centralised in Brussels, and inter-regionalism naturally

plays a dominant role in forming the region’s external relations. This study attempts to analyse interregionalism in a comparative manner, using the cases of cooperation projects across regions in the Global

South. By looking into the web of cooperation projects across Southeast Asia and South Asia as well as that

across Southern America and Southern Africa, this study examines whether inter-regionalism is a substitute

or complement to other forms of cooperation including extra-, cross-, trans-, and pan-regionalism.

6. 文化制裁與本體（不）安全：特大活動背景下的可操作性（Cultural sanctions and

ontological (in)security: operationalisation in the context of mega-events）

Nimrod Rosler，特拉維夫大學(xué)沖突解決與調(diào)解項目講師

Galia Press-Barnathan，耶路撒冷希伯來大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系高級講師

【摘要】對大型活動的文化抵制往往受到媒體的高度關(guān)注，但其有效性仍然受到質(zhì)疑。這種有效性受

其在目標(biāo)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)生本體不安全感的能力的影響。然而，鑒于本體不安全概念的模糊性，衡量此類威脅

的影響具有挑戰(zhàn)性。因此，本文提出了一種新的方法，利用社會層面的量化指標(biāo)來操作主辦和抵制大

型活動對本體安全（OS）的影響，從而對本體安全的動態(tài)進(jìn)行更系統(tǒng)的跨國探索。本文還對文化制裁

和超大型活動政治的研究做出了貢獻(xiàn)，對其對社會 “本體安全”意識的實際影響進(jìn)行了實證評估。最

后，本文指出了對 “國家”本體（不）安全概念進(jìn)行解構(gòu)的重要性，以及社會中不同群體可能或多或少

會受到此類威脅的影響。本文利用在以色列舉辦 2019 年歐洲電視歌唱大賽期間對以色列猶太人進(jìn)行

的全國性調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)舉辦歐洲電視歌唱大賽與本體安全之間存在正相關(guān)，在呼吁抵制歐洲電視歌

唱大賽之后，本體安全在一定程度上受到了威脅，而且不同社會群體在這些觀念上存在差異。

【原文】Cultural boycotts of mega-events often receive high media profile, but their effectiveness remains

questioned. This effectiveness is influenced by their ability to generate ontological insecurity within the target

state. However, measuring the impact of such threats is challenging in light of the evasive nature of the concept

of ontological insecurity. Hence, we advance a new way to operationalise the impact of both hosting and

boycotting mega-events on ontological security (OS), using quantitative indicators on the societal level, thus

allowing for a more systematic cross-national exploration of the dynamics of OS. We also contribute to the

research on cultural sanctions and the politics of mega-events, by offering an empirical assessment of their

actual impact on society’s sense of OS. Finally, the paper points to the importance of de-constructing the

concept of ‘national’ ontological (in)security and to the possibility that different segments in society may be

more or less vulnerable to such threats. Using data from a national-wide survey among Jewish-Israelis in the

context of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest in Israel, we found a positive association between its hosting and

OS, a perception of threat to OS to some extent following calls to boycott the event, and differences in these

perceptions among various social groups.

【編譯：宋欣蔚】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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《太平洋評論》（The Pacific Review）

The Pacific Review， Vol. 36, No. 6, 2023

1. 灰色地帶：印太地區(qū)的風(fēng)險化和對沖戰(zhàn)略（Shades of grey: riskification and

hedging in the Indo-Pacific）

郭清水（Cheng-Chwee Kuik），馬來西亞國立大學(xué)（UKM）馬來西亞及國際問題研究所（IKMAS）

亞洲研究中心主任

【摘要】本文通過聚焦東南亞對中美激烈競爭和印度洋-太平洋地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的四方安全對話

（Quadrilateral Security Dialogue，Quad）的反應(yīng)，解讀小國和次等國家的對沖行為。報告認(rèn)為，弱

小國家對外部現(xiàn)實的看法并非非黑即白，而是灰色地帶，因為不確定性滋生了模糊性和矛盾性。這

些國家往往不認(rèn)為大國（及其倡議）是明確的威脅或直接的解決方案。相反，它們看到的是一系列

風(fēng)險和挑戰(zhàn)，每種風(fēng)險和挑戰(zhàn)的表現(xiàn)形式和嚴(yán)重程度都在不斷變化，所有這些都需要復(fù)雜的相互促

進(jìn)和抵消措施的組合。所有東盟國家對相互競爭的大國的態(tài)度不一，認(rèn)為四國的“自由開放的印太”

（FOIP）和中國的“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）不僅帶來了機(jī)遇，也帶來了風(fēng)險和危險。這些矛盾的看法

帶來了一個“風(fēng)險化”的過程，即各國識別并優(yōu)先考慮某些風(fēng)險，同時淡化其他風(fēng)險，以滿足國內(nèi)精

英的利益。因此，盡管幾乎所有東盟國家都在不同程度上強(qiáng)調(diào)了被牽連、被拋棄、兩極分化和邊緣

化的風(fēng)險，但許多國家卻淡化了大國侵略和干涉的危險，有些國家比其他國家更甚。因此，不同的

風(fēng)險模式導(dǎo)致了不同的避險行為，促使各國對新出現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)實情況做出具有微妙區(qū)別的反應(yīng)。

【原文】This essay unpacks the hedging behavior of small and secondary states by focusing on Southeast

Asian responses to the intense US-China rivalry and the emergence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

(Quad) in the Indo-Pacific region. It contends that the weaker states’ perceptions of external realities are not

black and white, but shades of grey, as uncertainty breeds ambiguity and ambivalence. The states often do not

view a major power (and its initiatives) as either a clear-cut threat or a straightforward solution. Instead, they

perceive a spectrum of risks and challenges, each with constantly changing manifestations and magnitude, all

of which require complex combinations of mutually-reinforcing and counteracting measures. All ASEAN

states have mixed attitudes towards the competing powers, viewing both the Quad’s Free and Open IndoPacific (FOIP) strategies and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as bringing not only opportunities but

also risks and dangers. These ambivalent perceptions entail a process of ‘riskification’, where states identify

and prioritize certain risks while downplaying others, in ways that serve elite interests at home. Hence, while

《太平洋評論》（The Pacific Review）是太平洋地區(qū)研究

的主要平臺，作為跨學(xué)科期刊，其宗旨和目標(biāo)為打破研究

領(lǐng)域之間以及學(xué)術(shù)界、新聞界、政府和商界之間的壁壘，

重點關(guān)注政策問題。根據(jù) Journal Citation Reports 顯示，

2021 年該刊的影響因子為 2.074。

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nearly all the ASEAN states have stressed in varying degrees the risks of entrapment, abandonment,

polarization and marginalization, many have downplayed the dangers of big-power aggressiveness and

interference, some more so than others. The varying riskification patterns thus lead to varying hedging acts,

prompting subtly different responses to the emerging realities.

2. 中國對自由主義國際秩序的競爭（China’s contestation of the liberal international

order）

Sung-han Kim，高麗大學(xué)國際研究院國際關(guān)系學(xué)系教授

Sanghoon Kim，韓國海洋戰(zhàn)略研究所助理研究員

【摘要】 “修正主義”這一概念在中美競爭加劇的背景下引起了國際關(guān)系學(xué)者的關(guān)注。它是崛起大國

的標(biāo)志，而中國同樣意圖改變現(xiàn)狀，引發(fā)大量討論。然而，歷史告訴我們，并非所有崛起的大國都

一定會成為革命國家，通過霸權(quán)戰(zhàn)爭來推翻現(xiàn)行秩序并取而代之。本文通過區(qū)分“競爭”和“挑戰(zhàn)”，

對修正主義提出了新的解釋。在單極化衰落的背景下，不滿現(xiàn)狀的崛起大國會對特定問題制度的規(guī)

則和原則提出質(zhì)疑，并要求進(jìn)行合法調(diào)整，以更好地反映新的權(quán)力分配。當(dāng)要求遭到拒絕時，挑戰(zhàn)

就會出現(xiàn)，而爭論則會導(dǎo)致“去中心化”和“去合法化”既有秩序。亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行的成立可以

作為一個例子，說明有爭議的多邊主義并不是挑戰(zhàn)。本文的結(jié)論是，中國是在“競爭”而非“挑戰(zhàn)”自

由主義國際秩序，并提出了美國可以考慮的一系列對策：有選擇地遷就、加強(qiáng)聯(lián)盟和伙伴關(guān)系、克

服國內(nèi)挑戰(zhàn)（如對自由主義國際秩序的自由主義價值觀造成破壞的民粹主義）。

【原文】The concept of ‘revisionism’has caught the attention of international relations scholars amid

intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. It is a trademark of rising powers, and China was

likewise expected to become a revisionist power, intent on changing the status quo. However, history tells us

that not all rising powers necessarily become revolutionary states, seeking to overturn the prevailing order and

replace it with another through hegemonic wars. This paper presents a novel understanding of revisionism by

distinguishing between strategic‘contestation’and‘challenge’. In the context of declining unipolarity, a

dissatisfied rising power will contest the rules and principles of issue-specific regimes and demand legitimate

adjustments that better reflect the new distribution of power. A challenge emerges when demands are rejected,

and a contestation leads to‘deconcentration’and ‘delegitimation’of the established order. The establishment of

the AIIB can be examined as an example of contested multilateralism that falls short of a challenge. This paper

concludes that China is‘contesting’, not‘challenging’the liberal international order and suggests a set of

countermeasures that the U.S. can think of: selective accommodation, reinforcement of alliances and

partnerships, and overcoming domestic challenges such as populism that undermine the liberal values,

constitutive of the liberal international order.

3. 2007-2021 年東盟人權(quán)共識的演進(jìn)路徑（Five modes of China’s economic influence:

rethinking Chinese economic statecraft）

Atena S. Feraru，臺灣中興大學(xué)博士高級研究員

【摘要】本文在有關(guān)東盟宗旨及其人權(quán)機(jī)構(gòu)性質(zhì)的廣泛記錄和一致結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，對東盟人權(quán)機(jī)制的

作用和職能進(jìn)行了全面的闡述。首先，本文特別強(qiáng)調(diào)，盡管有關(guān)該地區(qū)集團(tuán)的性質(zhì)和成就/失敗的爭論

仍在繼續(xù)，但學(xué)術(shù)界對以下兩個重要方面的看法趨于一致：東盟的規(guī)范框架及其“靜默外交”的長期實

踐旨在安撫現(xiàn)任政府，使其對不必要地干涉內(nèi)政感到厭倦；地區(qū)人權(quán)機(jī)構(gòu)主要是東盟的機(jī)構(gòu)。這些研

究結(jié)果作為對東盟人權(quán)言論和實踐分析的指導(dǎo)假設(shè)，其核心是政府間共識的演變、東盟政府間人權(quán)委

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

165

員會（AICHR）在推進(jìn)這一共識方面的作用，以及對東盟應(yīng)對執(zhí)政精英實施或支持的嚴(yán)重侵犯人權(quán)行

為的評估。后一項研究詳述了該地區(qū)對 2014 年泰國軍事政變、菲律賓的“禁毒戰(zhàn)爭”、羅興亞人種族

滅絕以及 2021 年緬甸軍事政變和隨之而來的暴力反應(yīng)。

【原文】This article provides a comprehensive understanding of the roles and functions of ASEAN’s human

rights regime by building on widely documented, consistent findings relating to the purpose of the association

and the nature of its human rights institutions. In particular, the paper starts by emphasizing that, despite

continuing debate over the nature and achievements/failures of the regional grouping, scholarship tends to

converge on the two important aspects: ASEAN’s normative framework and its long-standing practice of

‘quiet diplomacy’ are designed to reassure incumbent governments weary of unwanted interference in internal

affairs; and regional human rights institutions are primarily ASEAN bodies. These findings are formulated as

assumptions guiding the analysis of the association’s human rights rhetoric and practice, which centers on the

evolution of intergovernmental consensus, the role of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human

Rights (AICHR) in advancing this consensus, and an assessment of ASEAN responses to gross violations

perpetrated or supported by governing elites. This latter examination details regional responses to the 2014

military coup in Thailand, Philippines’ brutal and largely extrajudicial ‘war on drugs’, the Rohingya genocide,

and the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and ensuing violence.

4. 穩(wěn)定日韓關(guān)系：抑制民族主義、評估對華政策、安撫華盛頓（Stabilizing Japan–

Korea relations: Restraining nationalism, appraising Beijing, reassuring

Washington）

Leif-Eric Easley，梨花女子大學(xué)國際研究學(xué)教授

【摘要】安倍晉三首相和樸槿惠總統(tǒng)就職時，日韓關(guān)系已因歷史問題和李明博總統(tǒng)史無前例地訪問獨

島/竹島爭議小島而陷入低谷。樸槿惠拒絕舉行雙邊峰會成為關(guān)系緊張的象征。隨后，2015 年 11 月 2

日，即上任 980 天后，樸槿惠在首爾與安倍晉三舉行雙邊會談。12 月 28 日，雙方宣布關(guān)系緩和，達(dá)

成了一項支持戰(zhàn)時“慰安婦”幸存者的協(xié)議。在文在寅總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)（2017-2022 年），緊張局勢再次惡

化，這與雙方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在 2015 年底扭轉(zhuǎn)關(guān)系的說法相悖。然而，外交關(guān)系并沒有走下坡路。在樸槿惠

和文在寅政府執(zhí)政期間，日本和韓國的政策制定者通過三個穩(wěn)定機(jī)制，成功地為雙方的互動奠定了基

礎(chǔ)。首先，政治精英們相互克制，以限制民族主義相互指責(zé)的惡性循環(huán)。其次，東京和首爾謹(jǐn)慎調(diào)整

對北京的政策，同時避免相互背離。第三，向美國保證其聯(lián)盟的成本效益涉及三邊合作，這也有助于

穩(wěn)定日韓關(guān)系。

【原文】By the time Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Park Geun-hye took office, Japan-South Korea

relations were already experiencing a downturn over history issues and Lee Myung-bak’s unprecedented

presidential visit to the disputed islets of Dokdo/Takeshima. Park’s refusal to hold a bilateral summit became

the symbol of strained ties. Then on November 2, 2015 — 980?days after taking office — Park met Abe for

bilateral talks in Seoul. On December 28, the two sides declared a rapprochement with an agreement

supporting survivors of wartime brothels. Tensions worsened again during President Moon Jae-in’s term

(2017–2022), contradicting the narrative that leaders had turned relations around in late 2015. Yet the

diplomatic relationship was not on a downward spiral. Japanese and Korean policymakers managed to put a

floor under their interactions owing to three stabilizing mechanisms that operated during both the Park and

Moon administrations. First, political elites practiced mutual restraint to limit vicious cycles of nationalist

recriminations. Second, Tokyo and Seoul carefully calibrated policies toward Beijing while avoiding

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divergence from each other. Third, reassuring the United States about the cost-effectiveness of its alliances

involved trilateral cooperation that also helped stabilize Japan-South Korea relations.

5. 制約與機(jī)遇：2011-2021 年中緬關(guān)系的不對稱依存（Of constraints and

opportunities. Dependent asymmetry in China-Myanmar relations, 2011–2021）

Simone Dossi，米蘭大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)助理教授

Giuseppe Gabusi，都靈大學(xué)文化、政治和社會系國際政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和東亞政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】本文認(rèn)為，自 20 世紀(jì) 80 年代末以來，一種特殊的不對稱依存模式--\"雙重依存\"，即內(nèi)部和

外部依存的結(jié)合--已成為中緬關(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu)的特征。本文提出的假設(shè)是，這種模式的變化是 2011 年至 2021

年中緬關(guān)系波動的原因。作者從雙邊關(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu)的兩次變化中找到了經(jīng)驗證據(jù)來驗證這一假設(shè)：分別追

溯了中緬是如何看待結(jié)構(gòu)變化的，以及這種看法是如何引導(dǎo)各自的政策調(diào)整的。緬甸在 2011-2012 年

減少了對中國的對外依存度，這擴(kuò)大了緬甸決策者可采取的潛在行動方案的范圍，同時也減少了中國

可采取的行動方案的范圍；而在 2017-2018 年緬甸恢復(fù)對中國的全面對外依存度后，情況恰恰相反。

本文最后推測，2021 年的軍事政變很可能代表雙邊關(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu)的第三次轉(zhuǎn)變，進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)緬甸對中國的

外部依賴，限制軍政府的回旋余地。

【原文】This article argues that a peculiar pattern of dependent asymmetry – ‘dual dependence’, i.e. a

combination of internal and external dependence – has come to characterize the structure of China-Myanmar

relations since the late 1980s. The hypothesis we present is that shifts in this pattern of dependent asymmetry

account for fluctuations in China-Myanmar relations between 2011 and 2021. We test this hypothesis against

empirical evidence from what we identify as two shifts in the structure of bilateral relations: for each, we trace

how structural changes were perceived in Naypyitaw and Beijing, and how such perceptions oriented an

adjustment in their respective policies. Myanmar’s reduced external dependence on China in 2011–2012

expanded the set of the potential courses of action available to Myanmar’s decision-makers and reduced the

set of those available to China; conversely, the opposite happened in 2017–2018, following Myanmar’s return

to full-fledged external dependence on China. The paper finally speculates that the military coup in 2021 could

well represent a third shift in the structure of bilateral relations, further strengthening Myanmar’s external

dependence on China and constraining the military government’s room of manoeuvre.

6. 東南亞土著人民應(yīng)對氣候變化的積極性：區(qū)域標(biāo)量橋梁組織的作用（Indigenous

peoples activism on climate change in Southeast Asia: the role of regional scalar

bridging organizations）

Kim Reimann，佐治亞州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】東南亞的土著人民在地方、國家、區(qū)域和全球?qū)用娼M織起來以解決影響其權(quán)利的問題。本文

認(rèn)為，這種行動主義興起的一個重要因素是區(qū)域性標(biāo)度橋梁組織的存在，這些組織將不同標(biāo)度的行動

主義聯(lián)系起來，并通過提供全球和區(qū)域性行動機(jī)會來支持土著運(yùn)動的發(fā)展。在東南亞，《亞洲土著人

民條約》（AIPP）和特波提巴（Tebtebba）通過其在全球政治舞臺上的存在以及與該地區(qū)伙伴組織開

展的許多活動發(fā)揮了這一作用。本文以社會運(yùn)動理論為基礎(chǔ)，概述了地區(qū)性社會運(yùn)動組織如何通過在

以下領(lǐng)域的規(guī)模橋梁作用，為全球南部的全球行動主義提供潛在支持：（1）資源動員；（2）創(chuàng)造政

治空間和機(jī)會；（3）傳播思想。為了說明這一點，本文通過研究亞洲土著人民條約（AIPP）和特波

提巴（Tebtebba）在這三個領(lǐng)域所做的工作，介紹了東南亞土著人民在氣候變化問題上的行動。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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【原文】Indigenous peoples in Southeast Asia have organized on issues that affect their rights at the local,

national, regional and global level. This article argues that one important component of the rise of this activism

is the presence of regional scalar bridging organizations that link activism across scales and support the growth

of Indigenous movements by providing access to global and regional opportunities for action. In Southeast

Asia, the Asian Indigenous Peoples Pact (AIPP) and Tebtebba play this role through their presence in global

political arenas and their many activities with partner organizations in the region. Drawing on social movement

theory, this article outlines how regional social movement organizations potentially support global activism in

the Global South by scale bridging in the areas of (1) resource mobilization, (2) creation of political spaces

and opportunities and (3) the diffusion of ideas. To illustrate this, the case of Indigenous peoples activism on

climate change in Southeast Asia is presented through an examination of the work done in these three areas

by the Asian Indigenous Peoples Pact (AIPP) and Tebtebba.

7. 美菲聯(lián)盟中的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全：任務(wù)滲漏（Cybersecurity in the U.S.-Philippine alliance:

mission seep）

Gregory H. Winger，辛辛那提大學(xué)國際與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】本研究探討了網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全在美菲聯(lián)盟中的整合問題。網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全等新形式國際沖突的增長低于

傳統(tǒng)武裝攻擊的門檻，對旨在抵御傳統(tǒng)軍事威脅的安全聯(lián)盟構(gòu)成了直接挑戰(zhàn)。本文采用過程追蹤

法，研究了網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全在美菲關(guān)系中的演變，以及美菲如何應(yīng)對這一新挑戰(zhàn)。文章發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管雙方都

關(guān)注網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全，但在數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的政策上存在分歧，這阻礙了聯(lián)盟的發(fā)展。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)凸顯了精英政治

不和、對威脅的不同看法以及不同的制度偏好等問題是如何阻礙合作伙伴之間的網(wǎng)絡(luò)合作并阻礙聯(lián)

盟發(fā)展的。

【原文】This study examines the integration of cybersecurity within the U.S.-Philippine alliance. The growth

of new forms of international conflict, like cybersecurity, occur below the threshold of a traditional armed

attack and pose a direct challenge to security alliances designed to rebuff conventional military threats. Using

a process-tracing approach, this article investigates the evolution of cybersecurity within the U.S.-Philippine

relationship and how it has met this new challenge. It finds that despite mutual concern over cybersecurity,

divergent approaches to the digital domain as a policy area has stymied alliance development. This finding

highlights how issues like elite political discord, different threat perceptions, and divergent institutional

preferences can hinder cyber cooperation between partners and stymie alliance development.

8. 區(qū)域主義、成員資格和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力：亞洲及其他地區(qū)的啟示（Regionalism,

membership and leadership: insights from Asia and beyond）

Shintaro Hamanaka，日本發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究所高級研究員

【摘要】本文從中國的諺語中汲取靈感，對地區(qū)主義進(jìn)行了另一種解釋，并特別提到了地區(qū)主義的成

員問題。這種替代性解釋為地區(qū)主義的排他性提供了見解，而主流國際關(guān)系理論在提供合理解釋方面

缺乏一定的有效性。本文假設(shè)，一個國家會組成一個它可以成為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的地區(qū)集團(tuán)，將比它更強(qiáng)大的

國家排除在外。一個國家重視在地區(qū)集團(tuán)中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位，即使是在一個小的地區(qū)集團(tuán)中。為了驗證這

一假設(shè)，本文對 20 世紀(jì)下半葉在亞洲發(fā)起的地區(qū)主義進(jìn)行了研究，并特別關(guān)注了美國的加入和排除。

通過分析從四個國家檔案館（澳大利亞、日本、英國和美國）獲得的外交記錄，以及退休官員的回憶

錄和其他研究，本文表明，亞洲的地區(qū)主義往往是以排斥的方式推行的，主要是由日本，其次是印度

尼西亞。本文還討論了歐洲的地區(qū)主義能否以及如何用這一替代理論來解釋。

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【原文】Drawing inspiration from a Chinese proverb, this paper offers an alternative interpretation of

regionalism, with a special reference to its membership. This alternative interpretation provides insights into

the exclusionary aspect of regionalism, for which mainstream international relations theories lack a certain

efficacy in providing plausible explanations. We hypothesize that a state forms a regional group in which it

can be a leader, excluding states that are more powerful than it is. A state values the leading position in a

regional group, even in a small regional group. To test the hypothesis, this paper investigates regionalism

launched in Asia during the second half of 20th century, with special attention to the inclusion and exclusion

of the US. By analyzing diplomatic records obtained at four national archives (Australia, Japan, the UK, and

the US), as well as memoirs by retired officials and other studies, this paper shows that regionalism in Asia

was often pursued in an exclusionary manner, mainly by Japan, and to a lesser degree by Indonesia. The paper

also discusses whether and how regionalism in Europe can be explained with this alternative theory.

9. 中國在斯里蘭卡的佛教戰(zhàn)略敘事--利益與佛教？（China’s Buddhist strategic

narratives in Sri Lanka—benefits and Buddhism?）

Tabita Rosendal，瑞典隆德大學(xué)東亞和東南亞研究中心博士

【摘要】近年來，中國的“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）對斯里蘭卡的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響一直受到密切關(guān)注，但很少

有研究關(guān)注中國的佛教敘事在促進(jìn)兩國利益中的作用。通過分析中國和斯里蘭卡官方聲明中使用的佛

教戰(zhàn)略敘事，本文認(rèn)為，在“一帶一路”倡議的“民心相通”紐帶下，中國和斯里蘭卡官員利用兩國間的

佛教歷史和交流推動了“一帶一路”倡議，并加強(qiáng)了兩國間的文化聯(lián)系。本文認(rèn)為，從狹義上講，自該

倡議啟動以來，中國在斯里蘭卡的佛教外交有所增加，其重點是加強(qiáng)雙邊關(guān)系，減少對項目的批評。

中國的戰(zhàn)略敘事取得了一定的成功，但由于這些敘事是與經(jīng)濟(jì)投資同時進(jìn)行的，因此很難衡量其確切

的影響。更廣泛地說，中國正越來越多地通過宗教戰(zhàn)略敘事來定位自身和“一帶一路”倡議，以減少批

評，促進(jìn)其在國際體系中的利益和地位。然而，盡管中國將佛教戰(zhàn)略敘事與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資相結(jié)合，可

能會確保倡議的持續(xù)實施，但這取決于東道國是否愿意接受這些敘事。

【原文】While the economic impact of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative (BRI) in Sri Lanka has been closely

monitored in recent years, few studies have focused on the role of China’s Buddhist narratives in furthering

the countries’ interests. By analyzing the Buddhist strategic narratives used in official Chinese and Sri Lankan

statements, this article argues that under the BRI’s ‘people-to-people’ bonds, Chinese and Sri Lankan officials

have used the Buddhist history and exchanges between the two nations to advocate for BRI projects, and to

strengthen their cultural ties. This article finds, more narrowly, that China’s Buddhist diplomacy in Sri Lanka

has increased since the BRI’s inception, and that it has focused on enhancing bilateral relations and mitigating

criticism of projects. China’s strategic narratives have been somewhat successful, but since they are employed

alongside economic investments, their precise impact is difficult to measure. More broadly, the CCP is

increasingly positioning itself and the BRI through religious strategic narratives to mitigate criticism and

further its interests and stature in the international system. However, while China’s projection of Buddhist

strategic narratives, in tandem with infrastructure investments, may ensure the BRI’s continued

implementation, this depends on the willingness of host countries of accepting these narratives.

【編譯：馬欣茹】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

169

《亞洲調(diào)查》（Asian Survey）

Asian Survey， Vol. 63, No. 6, 2023

1. 中國公眾參與的類型及其對地方公共服務(wù)滿意度的影響：作為調(diào)節(jié)變量的政治信任

（Types of Public Participation and Their Effect on Satisfaction with Local Public

Services in China: Political Trust as a Moderating Variable）

苗紅娜，南京大學(xué)政府管理學(xué)院政治學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】公共服務(wù)滿意度是衡量公共服務(wù)質(zhì)量的重要指標(biāo)，也是促進(jìn)中國政治合法性的有效途徑。本

文通過實證研究考察了三種類型的公眾參與對中國公民的公共服務(wù)滿意度的影響，并特別關(guān)注政治信

任的調(diào)節(jié)作用。利用 2020 年一項針對 6089 名受訪者的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)政府主導(dǎo)的討論和非政治

參與對公共服務(wù)滿意度有積極影響，而基層選舉參與在統(tǒng)計上沒有顯著影響。參與效能、政治信任、

政策透明度和不公平待遇是影響居民公共服務(wù)滿意度的潛在因素。在這些相關(guān)因素中，政治信任具有

顯著的調(diào)節(jié)作用。當(dāng)政治信任度較低時，參與對公共服務(wù)滿意度的影響為零或負(fù)相關(guān)；當(dāng)信任度較高

時，負(fù)相關(guān)得到緩解。

【原文】Satisfaction with public services is an important index of their quality and an effective way to promote

political legitimacy in China. This article empirically examines how three types of public participation

contribute to citizens’ satisfaction with public services in China, with special attention to the moderating role

of political trust. Using data from 6,089 respondents in a survey conducted in 2020, I find that governmentled discussions and nonpolitical participation have a positive effect on public service satisfaction, whereas

grass-roots election participation has no statistically significant effect. Participation efficacy, political trust,

policy transparency, and unfair treatment are potential factors affecting residents’ satisfaction with public

services. In these correlations, political trust has a significant moderating effect. When political trust is weak,

the influence of participation on public service satisfaction is null or negative; with greater trust, the negative

correlation is mitigated.

2. 清理行動：生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)計劃與中國城市空氣污染（Cleaning Up Its Act: The

Ecological Environmental Protection Plan and China’s Urban Air Pollution）

Jingwen Wu，美國萊克星頓肯塔基大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士生

James R. Masterson，美國肯塔基州莫爾黑德州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授

《亞洲調(diào)查》（Asian Survey）是加州大學(xué)出版社代表加州

大學(xué)伯克利分校東亞研究所出版的學(xué)術(shù)期刊。該雜志于

1932 年以備忘錄的形式成立，但在 1935 年更名為《遠(yuǎn)東

調(diào)查》，并于 1961 年獲得了現(xiàn)名。該刊物持續(xù)關(guān)注亞洲

事務(wù)與發(fā)展，是亞洲研究領(lǐng)域的重要學(xué)術(shù)刊物之一。其

2021 年的影響因子為 0.511，在 84 種區(qū)域研究期刊中排

名第 68。

170

【摘要】環(huán)境問題的緊迫性和全球性超越了地方和區(qū)域的界限，給發(fā)展中國家的決策者帶來了重大挑

戰(zhàn)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境目標(biāo)相互沖突的情況下，評估監(jiān)管政策的有效性變得越來越重要。本研究以中國最

新的環(huán)境政策——《生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)規(guī)劃》為重點，調(diào)查了公共政策在激勵發(fā)展中國家優(yōu)先考慮環(huán)境監(jiān)

管方面的有效性。本文利用了多層次建模和差分估計方法，并使用了 2014 年至 2019 年期間中國人口

最多的六個城市的數(shù)據(jù)，最終發(fā)現(xiàn)該政策實施后空氣質(zhì)量得到改善的證據(jù)。此外，本文還觀察到，在

受政策制度細(xì)節(jié)影響最大的城市，空氣質(zhì)量的改善幅度更大。這表明，精心制定的公共政策可以改善

空氣質(zhì)量，為政策制定者和學(xué)者提供了重要的啟示。

【原文】The urgent and global concern of environmental problems transcends local and regional boundaries,

posing significant challenges for policymakers in developing countries. Amid conflicting economic and

environmental goals, evaluating the efficacy of regulatory policies becomes increasingly critical. This study

investigates the effectiveness of public policy in incentivizing developing nations to prioritize environmental

regulation, with a specific focus on China’s most recent environmental policy, the Ecological Environmental

Protection Plan. Using multilevel modeling and difference-in-differences estimation with data from six of

China’s most populous cities between 2014 and 2019, we see evidence of air quality improvements following

the implementation of the policy. Furthermore, we observe greater enhancements in air quality in the cities

most affected by the institutional details of the policy. This shows that well-crafted public policy can improve

air quality, providing crucial insights for policymakers and scholars alike.

3. 選舉制度改革與政策變革：以日本兒童保育普及化改革為例（Electoral System

Reform and the Politics of Policy Change: The Case of Universalistic Child Care

Reforms in Japan）

Yosuke Sunahara，日本神戶大學(xué)法學(xué)研究生院公共管理學(xué)教授

【摘要】隨著婦女參與勞動的擴(kuò)大，許多國家試圖通過改變性別分工來改革兒童保育支助。日本也嘗

試過普遍性的兒童保育支持改革，但并不總是成功。20 世紀(jì) 90 年代的選舉改革促使各主要政黨進(jìn)行

全民改革，各主要政黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也倡導(dǎo)類似的理念。不過，他們還是未能將福利擴(kuò)大到所有兒童。尤其

就擴(kuò)大資助范圍達(dá)成一致具有挑戰(zhàn)性。通過分析政黨內(nèi)部和政黨之間的聯(lián)盟形成，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)選舉改革

導(dǎo)致了激烈的競爭，從而使各政黨難以達(dá)成一致。向多數(shù)選舉制的轉(zhuǎn)變不僅加劇了政黨間的競爭，也

使那些認(rèn)為自己的選舉成功受到威脅的黨內(nèi)團(tuán)體難以被說服。

【原文】As women’s participation in the workforce expands, many countries seek to reform child care support

by changing the gender division of labor. Japan also attempted universalistic child care support reforms,

though these were not always successful. The electoral reforms of the 1990s prompted the major political

parties to make universalistic reforms, and the major party leaders advocated similar ideas. Still, they failed to

extend benefits to all children. Agreement on the expansion of funding was particularly challenging. By

analyzing coalition formation within and among political parties, I show that the electoral reform led to stiff

competition, which made it difficult for parties to agree. The change to a majoritarian electoral system not

only intensified inter-party rivalry but also made it difficult to persuade intra-party groups that perceived a

threat to their electoral success.

4. 2012 年后日本的平衡投票：最大反對黨為何獲得非支持者的選票（Balance-Minded

Voting in Post-2012 Japan: Why the Largest Opposition Party Receives Votes from NonSupporters）

Ko Maeda，美國丹頓北德克薩斯大學(xué)政治學(xué)系副教授

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

171

【摘要】本研究利用調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)來描述 2012 年后日本的一種新型策略投票行為。自民黨自 2012 年重

新執(zhí)政以來，在每次全國大選中都取得了勝利，而在野黨陣營則分裂成許多黨派，沒有一個被視為自

民黨的有力競爭者。在自民黨肯定會獲勝的情況下，盡管有些選民并不認(rèn)為該黨有能力治理國家，但

他們會把票投給反對黨，尤其是最大的反對黨。他們關(guān)心的是各黨席位的平衡。與真正支持反對黨的

選民相比，這些策略選民往往年齡更大、受教育程度更高、更富有、更關(guān)注政治新聞。

【原文】This study employs survey data to characterize a new kind of strategic voting behavior in post-2012

Japan. Since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in 2012, it has been winning every national

election, while the opposition camp has been fragmented into many parties, none of which has been seen as a

viable contender to the LDP. In this situation in which the LDP will certainly win, there are citizens who vote

for an opposition party, especially the largest one, though they do not believe it is capable of governing the

country. Their concern is the balance of seats among the parties. These strategic voters tend to be older, more

educated, richer, and more attentive to political news than those who genuinely support the opposition.

5. 欺騙性的性別平等： 揭開老撾人民性別平等觀念的 \"黑匣子\"（Deceptive Gender

Equality: Unlocking the “Black Box” of Lao People’s Perception of Gender Equality）

Jungin Jo，韓國首爾淑明女子大學(xué)全球服務(wù)學(xué)院全球合作部教授

Wonjae Hwang，美國田納西大學(xué)諾克斯維爾分校政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】盡管老撾在賦予婦女經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治權(quán)力方面取得了成就，但在衛(wèi)生和教育等關(guān)鍵社會經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，

性別不平等現(xiàn)象依然存在。我們?nèi)绾谓忉屵@些平等方面的差距？本文分析了老撾人民如何看待性別平

等，以及對性別平等多個維度的認(rèn)知差異如何影響婦女在醫(yī)療保健和教育方面的權(quán)利。2023 年對 664

名老撾民眾的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，對平等責(zé)任的認(rèn)識是性別平等的關(guān)鍵維度，這可能會限制醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域

性別平等的改善。調(diào)查結(jié)果表明，女性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力以及公眾在權(quán)利和機(jī)會方面對性別平等的更多考慮可能

會促進(jìn)老撾的性別平等。本研究為研究非西方國家對性別平等的認(rèn)識和實踐做出了貢獻(xiàn)。

【原文】Despite achievements in women’s economic and political empowerment, gender inequalities persist

in the key socioeconomic areas of health and education in Laos. How can we explain these gaps in equality?

We analyze how Lao people perceive gender equality and how differences in the perception of multiple

dimensions of gender equality affect women’s rights in healthcare and education. The results of a 2023 survey

of 664 Laotians highlight the perception of equal responsibilities as the key dimension of gender equality,

which may limit the improvement of gender equality in health. The results imply that female leadership and

greater public consideration of gender equality with respect to rights and opportunities may promote gender

equality in Laos. This study contributes to the study of perceptions and practices of gender equality in nonWestern countries.

【編譯：張瀟文】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

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《歐亞研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）

Europe-Asia Studies，Vol.75，No.9，2023

1. 政治漫畫中武契奇領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下塞爾維亞的競爭性威權(quán)主義與民粹主義（Competitive

Authoritarianism and Populism in Serbia Under Vu?i? in Political Cartoons）

Neboj?a Vladisavljevi?，貝爾格萊德大學(xué)政治學(xué)院教授

Aleksandra Krsti?，貝爾格萊德大學(xué)政治學(xué)院副教授

【摘要】本文運(yùn)用混合方法研究武契奇領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下塞爾維亞的競爭性威權(quán)主義與民粹主義的聯(lián)系。杜桑·佩

特里奇奇（Du?an Petri?i?）是著名漫畫家與政府批評家，我們對其 2013 至 2017 年間的 228 幅政治漫

畫進(jìn)行了定量內(nèi)容分析，并對四幅反映侵犯媒體自由、不公平的政治競爭、民粹主義和濫用規(guī)則等關(guān)

鍵主題的漫畫進(jìn)行了定性視覺和語境分析。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，作為競爭性威權(quán)主義的“軟”面孔，由于依賴更

加非正式、復(fù)雜和更少具有壓制性的威權(quán)操縱形式，民粹主義為國內(nèi)觀眾和有影響力的國際行為體所

接受。

【原文】We explored links between competitive authoritarianism and populism in Serbia under Vu?i? via

mixed methods. We conducted a quantitative content analysis of 228 political cartoons (2013–2017) by Du?an

Petri?i?, a leading cartoonist and government critic, and qualitative visual and contextual analysis of four

cartoons that reflected key themes—media freedom violations, unfair political competition, and populist and

abusive rule. We found that populism appeared as the ‘soft’ face of competitive authoritarianism, tolerable to

domestic audiences and acceptable to influential international actors because of its reliance on more informal

and sophisticated and less repressive forms of authoritarian manipulation.

2. 停止歸還：羅馬尼亞的少數(shù)民族教會、財產(chǎn)權(quán)和歐洲化（Restitutio Interruptus:

Minority Churches, Property Rights and Europeanisation in Romania）

Beáta Huszka，倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院斯拉夫東歐研究學(xué)院研究員

【摘要】本文旨在解釋羅馬尼亞境內(nèi)歷史上匈牙利教會財產(chǎn)歸還的動態(tài)變化。在 21 世紀(jì)初，這些教

會的大多數(shù)索賠要求都獲得了批準(zhǔn)，但是在 2010 年以后，當(dāng)法院開始質(zhì)疑這些教會的歷史財產(chǎn)權(quán)時，

《歐亞研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）為每年出刊 10 期的

學(xué)術(shù)期刊，由 Routledge 代表格拉斯格大學(xué)（University of

Glasgow）中東歐研究部門出版。主要關(guān)注前蘇聯(lián)地區(qū)國家

的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會議題及其 20 世紀(jì)的歷史。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

173

它們的大多數(shù)請求都被駁回。本文認(rèn)為，這種判例上的轉(zhuǎn)變可以用羅馬尼亞加入歐盟后的政治環(huán)境變

化來解釋。當(dāng)時法院遵從普遍的社會共識，反映出歸還少數(shù)民族教會在羅馬尼亞公眾中并不受歡迎

【原文】The article aims to explain the changing dynamics of property restitution to historical Hungarian

churches in Romania. While in the early 2000s most claims by these churches were approved, after 2010 most

of their petitions were denied when the courts started questioning these churches’ historical property rights. It

is argued here that this jurisprudential shift can be explained by the changing political environment after

Romania’s EU accession, when the courts deferred to the prevailing social consensus, reflecting the

unpopularity of restitution to minority churches amongst the Romanian public.

3. 一個享有不穩(wěn)定福祉的社會：俄羅斯的收入流動性和不流動性（A Society of

Unstable Well-Being: Income Mobility and Immobility in Russia）

Svetlana V. Mareeva，俄羅斯國家研究型高等經(jīng)濟(jì)大學(xué)社會政策研究所分層研究中心主任

Ekaterina D. Slobodenyuk，俄羅斯國家研究型高等經(jīng)濟(jì)大學(xué)社會政策研究所分層研究中心高級研

究員

【摘要】本文重點關(guān)注 2009—2017 年間俄羅斯的個人收入流動性。與前幾個后蘇聯(lián)發(fā)展時期一樣，

俄羅斯的收入流動性仍然很高。同其他經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織成員國相比，俄羅斯的收入流動性較高，

持續(xù)福祉水平則較低。個人對收入狀況的主觀評估比客觀狀況更不穩(wěn)定，持久的幸福感幾乎不存在。

主觀流動性與客觀流動性并不密切相關(guān)。持續(xù)的福祉由階級和非階級因素共同決定，包括勞動力市場

地位、撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)和健康狀況。

【原文】The article focuses on individual income mobility amongst Russians in the years 2009–2017. As in

previous periods of post-Soviet development, income mobility in Russia remains high. In comparison to

OECD member countries, income mobility is higher, while the level of persistent well-being is lower.

Subjective individual assessments of income situation are more volatile than objective positions, with

persistent subjective well-being almost non-existent. Subjective mobility does not correlate closely with its

objective counterpart. Persistent well-being is determined by a combination of class and non-class factors,

including labour market position, dependency burden and health status.

4. 圣彼得堡的公民城市專業(yè)知識（2012-2019 年）（Civic Urban Expertise in St

Petersburg (2012–2019)）

Svetlana Moskaleva，俄羅斯科學(xué)院社會學(xué)研究所初級研究員

【摘要】本文分析了俄羅斯城市中的城市專業(yè)知識現(xiàn)象，即 urbanistika，這一術(shù)語用于描述與城市規(guī)

劃和決策相關(guān)的活動。這一知識領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)立與公眾對專家評估興趣的增加不謀而合。該分析聚焦于一

個參與 2012—2019 年圣彼得堡城市重建項目的活動團(tuán)體。本研究結(jié)合專業(yè)知識社會學(xué)和城市研究的

學(xué)術(shù)成果，旨在揭示公民城市專業(yè)知識的構(gòu)建機(jī)制，并對形成此類活動的全球和地方條件進(jìn)行分析。

在研究方法方面，本文對使城市問題成為專家勞動對象的網(wǎng)絡(luò)創(chuàng)建過程進(jìn)行了追蹤。

【原文】This article analyses the phenomenon of urban expertise in Russian cities, urbanistika, a term used

to describe activities related to urban planning and decision-making. The creation of this field of knowledge

coincided with increased public interest in expert assessment. The analysis focuses on an activist group

involved in urban redevelopment projects in St Petersburg in 2012–2019. Using the insights of the literature

on the sociology of expertise combined with urban studies scholarship, the study sets out to uncover the

mechanisms by which civic urban expertise is constructed and to contextualise the global and local conditions

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in which such activity was shaped. The methodological approach tracks the process by which the network is

created that allows for urban questions to become the objects of expert labour.

5. 俄羅斯反西方的虛假信息、媒體消費與格魯吉亞的公眾輿論（Russian AntiWestern Disinformation, Media Consumption and Public Opinion in Georgia）

Ralph S. Clem，佛羅里達(dá)國際大學(xué)史蒂文·格林國際公共事務(wù)學(xué)院教授

Erik S. Herron，西弗吉尼亞大學(xué)政治系教授

Ani Tepnadze，西弗吉尼亞大學(xué)政治系

【摘要】各國已學(xué)會如何利用媒體傳播虛假信息，以推進(jìn)其地緣政治目標(biāo)。這些努力往往利用陰謀論

來針對其他國家，無論是直接對手還是第三方國家。俄羅斯尤其擅長這種做法，它試圖通過其國際渠

道以及目標(biāo)國家的國內(nèi)媒體和當(dāng)?shù)卣蛠碛绊懫渌麌业墓娸浾?。本文評估了虛假信息宣傳對格魯

吉亞的影響。利用 2019 年的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，我們研究了三種具體的反西方陰謀論是如何被與俄羅斯有關(guān)

的媒體或格魯吉亞媒體所放大的，這些媒體所播放的節(jié)目更同情俄羅斯的外交政策偏好。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，

那些信任格魯吉亞親俄媒體和/或接觸過俄羅斯電視的受訪者更有可能接受符合俄羅斯地緣政治利益

的陰謀論，這表明俄羅斯的虛假信息宣傳工作一定程度上成功說服了一些格魯吉亞公民。

【原文】States have learned how to use media as a means of propagating disinformation in the furtherance

of their geopolitical goals. Often these efforts employ conspiracy theories that target other countries, whether

as direct adversaries or in third-party states. Russia has a well-deserved reputation for being especially adept

at this practice as it seeks to influence public opinion in other states through its international channels as well

as domestic media and local politicians in the target countries. This article assesses the impact of

disinformation campaigns in the Republic of Georgia. Using survey data from 2019, we examine how three

specific anti-Western conspiracy theories were amplified by media outlets associated with Russia or with

Georgian outlets that aired material more sympathetic to Russian foreign policy preferences. We found that

respondents who trusted Georgian media with a pro-Russian orientation and/or who were exposed to Russian

television were more likely to accept conspiracy theories aligned with Russia’s geopolitical interests,

suggesting that Russian disinformation efforts might be moderately successful in persuading some Georgian

citizens.

6. 話語實踐在公共外交和國際關(guān)系中的作用：俄日關(guān)系的案例分析（The Role of

Discursive Practices in Public Diplomacy and International Relations: The Case of

Russia–Japan Relations）

Ignat Vershinin，筑波大學(xué)博士

【摘要】本研究利用話語分析評估俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京和外交部長拉夫羅夫的公開演講，解構(gòu)俄羅斯政治

精英在俄日關(guān)系中的話語實踐。數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，從權(quán)力立場出發(fā)時，普京和拉夫羅夫否定了日本的政

治決策主權(quán)和日本公眾在談判過程中的作用。本文認(rèn)為，盡管俄羅斯政治精英的話語實踐是面向外國

公眾的，但對其國內(nèi)合法性的影響更大。

【原文】Utilising discourse analysis to evaluate Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Affairs

Minister Sergei Lavrov’s public speeches as part of public diplomacy, this study deconstructs the discursive

practices of Russian political elites in Russia–Japan relations. The data analysis demonstrates that, when

speaking from a position of power, Putin and Lavrov delegitimise Japan’s political decision-making

sovereignty and the role of the Japanese public in the negotiation process. This article argues that even though

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175

the discursive practices of Russian political elites are oriented towards a foreign public, the impact on their

domestic legitimacy is greater.

【編譯：汪平平】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

《地中海政治》（Mediterranean Politics）

Mediterranean Politics，Vol.28，No.5，2023

1. “一帶一路”倡議下地中海地區(qū)的中國基建外交：未來的挑戰(zhàn)？（China’s

infrastructure diplomacy in the Mediterranean region under the Belt And Road

Initiative: Challenges ahead?）

張楚楚，復(fù)旦大學(xué)國際關(guān)系與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院副研究員

肖超偉，中國人民大學(xué)國家發(fā)展與戰(zhàn)略研究院講師（助理教授），英國劍橋大學(xué)空間戰(zhàn)略實驗室助

理研究員

【摘要】通過在民主或威權(quán)選舉中投票或抗議來參與政治，與較低的和平要求相關(guān)。通過說明民間社

會和安全感知所發(fā)揮的作用，本研究結(jié)果對從事安全研究的學(xué)者和致力于締造和平的決策者具有重要

意義。隨著中國在“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）框架下積極投資和建設(shè)海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，關(guān)于中國通過基礎(chǔ)

設(shè)施外交能夠且將要帶來的變化出現(xiàn)了許多傳言和誤解。通過分析中國在地中海地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目

和外交活動，研究政府文件、公司簡報和媒體報道，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施外交目標(biāo)有兩點：1.通

過政治手段促進(jìn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施合作和海外經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系。2.通過基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)合作，增進(jìn)中國與其他國家的政

治互信。盡管取得了初步成效，但中國通過基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施外交（包括在地中海地區(qū)）獲得的經(jīng)濟(jì)收益和政

治影響力仍然有限。原因是多方面的，其中最重要的是中國在角色定位上的困境，這使得中國的外交

政策（如基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施外交）發(fā)生變化，并具有可解釋性。

【原文】As Beijing is actively investing in and constructing infrastructure overseas within the framework of

the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), numerous rumours and misconceptions have arisen about the changes

China can and will bring through its infrastructure diplomacy. By way of an analysis of Chinese infrastructure

projects and diplomatic activities in the Mediterranean, examining government documents, companies’

《地中海政治》（Mediterranean Politics）是一本匯集了地

中海及其周邊地區(qū)當(dāng)代政治和國際關(guān)系研究的學(xué)術(shù)期刊。

地中海不僅被理解為那些邊界部分或全部由海洋本身界

定的國家，而且被理解為一個跨越歐洲、非洲和亞洲大陸

的空間。因此，該刊尋求作為相關(guān)區(qū)域研究團(tuán)體之間的橋

梁，文章范圍包括更廣泛的歐洲、非洲、中東和西亞地區(qū)

的國家和人口。該刊近五年影響因子為 2.266。

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briefings and media reports, we found that China’s infrastructure diplomacy goals are two-fold: 1.to promote

infrastructure cooperation and economic ties overseas through political means. 2. to enhance political trust

between China and other countries via collaboration in infrastructure development. Despite the preliminary

achievements, both China’s economic gains and political influence through infrastructure diplomacy,

including in the Mediterranean Region, remain limited. This derives from several factors, the most important

of which being China’s predicament in its role-taking, which makes its foreign policies such as the

infrastructure diplomacy subject to shifts and open to interpretation.

2. 中國在南地中海：將大馬格里布納入新絲綢之路（China in the Southern

Mediterranean: Integrating the Greater Maghreb in the new silk road）

Yahia H. Zoubir，法國凱致商學(xué)院國際關(guān)系和國際管理專業(yè)教授

【摘要】本文分析了中國與大馬格里布地區(qū)國家（阿爾及利亞、利比亞、毛里塔尼亞、摩洛哥和突尼

斯）政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的演變，它們是南地中海地區(qū)吸引外國勢力的主體。本文討論了中國如何通過雙

邊和多邊關(guān)系、戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系，以及在南地中海和鄰近的薩赫勒地區(qū)發(fā)展互聯(lián)互通，逐步將南地中海

國家納入新絲綢之路。盡管馬格里布國家依賴歐洲，但它們與中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系卻顯著增長。由于共同

的歷史遺產(chǎn)和角色重疊，阿爾及利亞與中國的關(guān)系最為密切。2014 年，中國與阿爾及利亞確立了“全

面戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系”，這在中東和北非地區(qū)尚屬首次。中國努力在該地區(qū)營造有利于促進(jìn)其經(jīng)濟(jì)和國家

安全利益的環(huán)境。中國試圖通過將自身確立為南南合作者和發(fā)展者的角色來實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。中國建立

的多邊論壇有助于對外傳播“發(fā)展價值觀”，培養(yǎng)信任感，并與合作伙伴進(jìn)行更廣泛的交往。通過交流，

中國政府期望其合作伙伴吸收并支持其政策，接受中國的國家角色概念。

【原文】This article analyses the evolution of China’s political and economic relations with the Greater

Maghreb States (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia), a major part of the Southern

Mediterranean that has attracted foreign powers. It discusses how China has gradually incorporated the

Southern Mediterranean states into the New Silk Road through bilateral and multilateral relations, strategic

partnerships, and the development of interconnectivity not only in the Southern Mediterranean but also onto

the adjacent Sahel. Notwithstanding their dependence on Europe, the Maghreb countries’ economic relations

with China have grown noticeably. Due to shared historical legacy and overlapping roles, Algeria has the

closest ties with China, which signed in 2014 a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Algeria, the first of

its kind in the Middle East and North Africa. China strives for an environment in the region that is conducive

to advancing its economic and national security interests. It seeks to enact that objective through its selfattributed roles as South-South collaborator and developer. The multilateral forums it has instituted contribute

to its external altercasting of ‘developmental values’, to cultivate trust, and engage in greater socialisation with

its partners. Through altercasting, Beijing expects its partners to assimilate and support its policies and accept

China’s national role conceptions.

3. “角色論”視角下透視當(dāng)今中埃全面戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系（China and Egypt’s

comprehensive strategic partnership in the Xi-Sisi era: a ‘role theory’ prism）

孫德剛，復(fù)旦大學(xué)國際問題研究院研究員、中東研究中心主任

徐瑞珂，北京外國語大學(xué)英語系講師

【摘要】盡管中埃雙邊貿(mào)易額和安全合作有限，但埃及是第一個在 1999 年與中國建立戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系

的中東和阿拉伯國家，也是第二個在 2014 年與中國建立全面戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系的國家。本文運(yùn)用角色理

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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論來解讀這一看似矛盾的現(xiàn)象，認(rèn)為中埃兩國之所以能在當(dāng)前時期擴(kuò)大和深化合作，很大程度上是因

為兩國的國家角色理念相契合。對兩國官方文件和其他各種相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的深入研究表明，中埃兩國決心

通過中國“一帶一路”倡議與埃及 “2030 愿景”計劃的戰(zhàn)略對接，建立全面互補(bǔ)的伙伴關(guān)系。中國和埃

及分別是亞洲和中東地區(qū)的重要國家，致力于通過追求多極化和崛起大國的團(tuán)結(jié)重塑全球權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)。

【原文】Despite the limitations of its bilateral trade volume and security cooperation with China, Egypt was

the first Middle Eastern and Arab country that established a strategic partnership with China in 1999 and the

second to build a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2014. This article employs role theory to unpack this

seeming paradox, and argues that it is largely because of the compatibility of their national role conceptions

that China and Egypt have managed to broaden and deepen their cooperation in the Xi-Sisi era. A thorough

examination of the two countries’ official documents and a variety of other related literature reveals that China

and Egypt are determined to build a comprehensive and complementary partnership with the strategic docking

of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Egypt’s ‘Vision 2030’ plan. As pivotal states in Asia and the

Middle East respectively, China and Egypt aim to reshape the global power structure through the pursuit of

multipolarity and solidarity of rising powers.

4. 中法合作競爭中的角色動力與信任（Role dynamics and trust in France-China

coopetition）

Emilie Tran，香港浸會大學(xué)社會科學(xué)學(xué)院政府與國際關(guān)系學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】在地中海國家中，法國與中國的雙邊關(guān)系可以說是最復(fù)雜的：兩國之間密集的經(jīng)濟(jì)交流和全

方位的合作不僅時間最長、事件最多，而且還伴有持續(xù)且日益增長的關(guān)切。本文將國際關(guān)系文獻(xiàn)中兩

個不同的概念——角色理論和信任交叉起來，在實證和理論兩方面做出了貢獻(xiàn)。本文研究了法中六十

年的互動機(jī)制，探討了法國的角色概念、期望、表現(xiàn)和適應(yīng)。在理論方面，文章提出將中法之間同時

存在的合作與競爭定性為“合作競爭”，從而為現(xiàn)有的國家角色概念中增加了一種新的角色定位，即“合

作競爭者”。

【原文】Among the Mediterranean states, France has arguably the most complex bilateral relationship with

China: their intense economic exchange and all-encompassing cooperation are not only the longest and

eventful, but they are also marred with enduring and mounting concerns. Intersecting two distinct concepts

from the international relations’ literature, i.e., role theory and trust, this article makes both empirical and

theoretical contributions. It examines sixty years of France-China interaction mechanisms, looking at France’

s role conception, expectations, performance and adaptation. On the theoretical front, it proposes to

characterize the concurrent cooperation and competition between France and China as coopetition, thus adding

a new role enactment, that of coopetitor, to the existing conceptions of national roles.

5. 中國參與地中海事務(wù)的局限性：西班牙-中國關(guān)系中的角色沖突和新興不信任（The

limits of China’s engagement in the Mediterranean: Role conflict and emerging

mistrust in Spain–China relations）

Mario Esteban，西班牙埃爾卡諾皇家研究所高級分析師，馬德里自治大學(xué)東亞研究中心高級講師

Ugo Armanini，埃爾卡諾皇家研究所亞太研究助理，馬德里自治大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士

【摘要】近來，西班牙對中國采取了一種更具批評性的立場。本文通過運(yùn)用角色理論和（不）信任概

念來解釋這種立場。中國作為大國和經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)競爭對手的新角色，西班牙對中國的更高期望，與西班

牙自我定位的角色（在很大程度上受到其與傳統(tǒng)歐洲和美國盟友關(guān)系的影響）之間的相互作用加劇了

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角色沖突。這些情形引發(fā)了不信任，且西班牙當(dāng)局對中國的行為表現(xiàn)出更大的擔(dān)憂。因此，他們轉(zhuǎn)向

了更具有附加條件的合作，最近在“一帶一路”倡議、外國投資和 5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一系列外交政策證明了這

一點。

【原文】Spain has recently endorsed a more critical stance towards China. This article explains this posture

through the application of role theory and the concept of (mis)trust. Role conflict has intensified from the

interplay between China’s new roles of great power and economic and technological competitor, Spain’s

higher expectations towards China, and Spain’s self-identified role, greatly influenced by its relations with its

traditional European and US allies. This has generated mistrust, and Spanish authorities have shown greater

concerns about Chinese behaviour. As a result, they have turned to a more conditional co-operation as

evidenced by a series of recent foreign policy outcomes on the BRI, foreign investment, and 5G networks.

6. 北非擴(kuò)大合作與歐盟的地緣政治覺醒（China’s expanding footprint in North Africa

and the European Union’s geopolitical awakening）

Anna Katharina Stahl，柏林雅克德洛爾中心歐洲外交和安全政策研究員

【摘要】多年來，歐盟一直努力將自身塑造成世界上一支規(guī)范性力量。隨著中國的崛起，國際環(huán)境正

在發(fā)生變化，相互競爭的因素日益加劇。作為回應(yīng)，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層承諾使歐盟成為一個地緣政治行為體，

更加堅定地追求自身的戰(zhàn)略利益。本文以中國與北非不斷擴(kuò)大合作為例，探討了歐盟在該地區(qū)的角色

變化。通過運(yùn)用角色理論和互動論進(jìn)行分析，本文更好地理解了歐洲對中國在北非戰(zhàn)略崛起的回應(yīng)，

以及歐盟在該地區(qū)從規(guī)范大國逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榈鼐壵涡袨轶w的過程。

【原文】For years, the European Union (EU) has sought to portray itself as a normative ‘force for good’ in

the world. With the rise of China, the international environment is changing and elements of rivalry are

sharpening. As a response, the EU’s leadership has promised to make the EU a geopolitical actor that would

be more assertive in pursuing its own strategic interests. Taking the example of China’s expanding footprint

in North Africa, this article examines the EU’s changing role in the region. By applying role theory and

interactionism to the analysis, the article offers a better understanding of the European response to China’s

strategic emergence in North Africa and the EU’s gradual transformation from a normative power into

geopolitical actor in the region.

【編譯：馬欣茹】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】