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織間協(xié)調(diào)產(chǎn)生的善意制度重疊將有望幫助各國際組織實(shí)現(xiàn)互利共贏，更有效地提供公共

產(chǎn)品。

而惡意的制度重疊則是國際組織乃至其成員國競爭的產(chǎn)物，旨在通過發(fā)展相同的能

力削弱其他國際組織的重要性，是國際組織的冗余而不是補(bǔ)充強(qiáng)化。如果國家認(rèn)為現(xiàn)有

的國際組織無效、沒有合法性，或有意挑起競爭，就可能在未與現(xiàn)有國際組織協(xié)調(diào)下建

立新機(jī)構(gòu)或擴(kuò)大現(xiàn)有機(jī)構(gòu)，惡意弱化現(xiàn)有國際組織的職能；而國際組織為了增強(qiáng)權(quán)力、

實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)，也可能會(huì)以擠壓其他組織為代價(jià)擴(kuò)大自己的職能范圍。惡意的制度重疊如果

涉及現(xiàn)存國際組織的核心領(lǐng)域，則極有可能構(gòu)成對其國際地位的挑戰(zhàn)，并引發(fā)資源和影

響力方面的沖突。

二、國際組織應(yīng)對制度重疊的行動(dòng)框架

關(guān)于國際組織面對不同類別的制度重疊時(shí)的可能行動(dòng)，本文提出了一個(gè)假說框架：

1. 國際組織對制度重疊的性質(zhì)判斷

實(shí)際上，很多制度重疊的性質(zhì)并不明確，畢竟挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)有秩序的國際組織和國家不太

可能公開宣稱它的真正意圖。因此，對制度重疊性質(zhì)的判斷取決于關(guān)鍵國際組織行為體，

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如國際組織的秘書長、副秘書長或其他高級官員。他們對制度重疊的看法取決于各種潛

在的制度和個(gè)人因素，如國際組織間的歷史關(guān)系、國際組織高級官員之間的熟悉程度，

以及這些官員的國家文化背景等。

國際組織內(nèi)的這些關(guān)鍵行為體對組織間關(guān)系的判斷將影響該國際組織的下一步行動(dòng)。

他們?nèi)绻哉偷慕嵌瓤创贫戎丿B，認(rèn)為制度重疊是善意的，就會(huì)推動(dòng)與對方國際組

織的合作；而他們?nèi)绻粤愫偷慕嵌瓤创硪粋€(gè)國際組織的職能擴(kuò)張，就會(huì)尋求鞏固自

己的地位，并試圖抵制他們眼中正挑戰(zhàn)自己地位的國際組織的職能擴(kuò)張。

2. 國際組織重塑制度重疊的手段

重塑制度重疊時(shí)，國際組織行為體既可以采取行為手段，也可以采取話語手段。

（1）決定接納制度重疊時(shí)

一旦國際組織行為體決定接納與其他國際組織的制度重疊，其采用各種行為、話語

手段的終極目的便是說服或規(guī)避組織內(nèi)持懷疑態(tài)度的成員國或其他行為體，并調(diào)整國際

組織自身的機(jī)構(gòu)以方便合作。

其中，國際組織可采用的行為手段包括通過外交渠道與對方?jīng)Q策者建立密切的私人

聯(lián)系，以便協(xié)調(diào)政策和戰(zhàn)略等。為了克服來自組織內(nèi)成員國的阻力，國際組織行為體還

可以通過控制議事流程，最大限度地減少反對成員國的參與。除此之外，國際組織行為

體還可以在成員國之間斡旋，如召集成員國進(jìn)行談判、建立后方渠道等。而可采用的話

語手段則包括通過各種演講和公眾活動(dòng)為強(qiáng)化合作找好理由等。

（2）決定抵制制度重疊時(shí)

一旦國際組織行為體決定抵制挑戰(zhàn)其地位的國際組織的制度重疊，其采用行為和話

語手段的終極目標(biāo)便是干預(yù)挑戰(zhàn)型國際組織的相關(guān)決策落實(shí)，乃至推動(dòng)競爭性的制度建

設(shè)與其抗衡?？傮w而言，抵制制度重疊對于國際組織而言更為困難，因?yàn)閲H組織無法

直接影響其他組織的決策。

其中，國際組織可采用的行為手段包括：與一道反對制度重疊的成員國聯(lián)手策劃反

對挑起制度重疊的國際組織的行動(dòng)，甚至推動(dòng)本組織競爭性的職能擴(kuò)張以抗衡制度重疊。

而可采用的話語手段則包括公開批評挑戰(zhàn)者國際組織，合法化自己的職能擴(kuò)張行動(dòng)等。

3. 決定重塑制度重疊成敗的因素

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國際組織行為體對制度重疊的應(yīng)對是成是敗，取決于兩個(gè)因素，其中最重要的就是

國際組織的制度能力（institutional capacity）。任何打算應(yīng)對制度重疊挑戰(zhàn)的國際組織都

需要具備制定戰(zhàn)略對策的政治智慧，以及隨后落實(shí)對策的正式/非正式權(quán)力。

同時(shí)，國際組織還需要具備相應(yīng)的機(jī)會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)（opportunity structure），該結(jié)構(gòu)由國際

組織成員國偏好的集中程度決定。成員國中的強(qiáng)國常常具有對國際組織直接施加影響的

能力，在安全領(lǐng)域尤為是如此，因此政府間國際組織應(yīng)對制度重疊時(shí)很難公開違背成員

國的一致偏好；而如果國際組織成員國之間的偏好更加分散，國際組織的行動(dòng)空間也會(huì)

相應(yīng)變大。

4. 國際組織行動(dòng)后的四種結(jié)果

國際組織無論選擇抵制還是接受制度重疊，均會(huì)面臨兩種可能的結(jié)果：

如果國際組織在接受制度重疊后還能妥善應(yīng)對，便有望與誘發(fā)制度重疊的國際組織

產(chǎn)生更大的協(xié)作效應(yīng)（synergies），提升雙方效能、提供更多的公共產(chǎn)品；而如果國際組

織無法克服加強(qiáng)合作所面臨的障礙，那么這些國際組織組織就只能共存（coexist）而無法

產(chǎn)生協(xié)作效應(yīng)進(jìn)而雙贏。

如果國際組織選擇抵制了其他國際組織的職能擴(kuò)張并成功，其有望鞏固（consolidate）

自身地位，并保持其資源和制度優(yōu)勢；但如果國際組織未能成功抵制惡意的制度重疊，

就會(huì)面臨邊緣化（marginalised）的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，在最極端的情況下甚至?xí)黄渌毮芟嗤膰?/p>

際組織取代。

三、實(shí)證案例：北約與歐盟的關(guān)系演變

為了驗(yàn)證上述假說，本文以北約與歐盟從 2014 年至 2020 年的關(guān)系演變?yōu)槔?，基?/p>

北約高級官員訪談?dòng)^察北約對歐盟態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變，并探究由此引發(fā)的政策轉(zhuǎn)向。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，

北約和歐盟的關(guān)系不僅符合上述假說，在不同時(shí)期北約還因?yàn)閷W盟的態(tài)度轉(zhuǎn)變而出現(xiàn)

不同的路徑選擇。

1、第一階段：2014-2016

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2014 年歐洲經(jīng)歷的地緣政治沖擊，以及組織雙方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層密切私交促使北約以正和博

弈的視角看待與歐盟的關(guān)系。北約意識到自己和歐盟均無法單獨(dú)應(yīng)對日益復(fù)雜的安全挑

戰(zhàn)。因此，北約一方面積極擴(kuò)展自身安保能力，一方面與歐盟加強(qiáng)協(xié)作，以便結(jié)合自身的

軍事手段和歐盟的民事手段應(yīng)對當(dāng)前問題。

北約開始利用行為與話語手段積極強(qiáng)化與歐盟的合作。觀察北約秘書長斯托爾滕貝

格從 2014 年 3 月至 2016 年 7 月針對歐盟發(fā)布的 18 次公開講話可發(fā)現(xiàn)，北約開始明確

表達(dá)與歐盟增進(jìn)合作的強(qiáng)烈愿望，援引意識形態(tài)因素強(qiáng)調(diào)雙方深化合作的重要性，并著

力展現(xiàn)北約高級官員“為拉近北約與歐盟的距離做出了特別的努力”。

在具體行動(dòng)上，北約主動(dòng)繞過正式的組織合作渠道，通過封閉性的雙邊會(huì)議加強(qiáng)同

歐盟的聯(lián)系。由于北約和歐盟此時(shí)的交流議程流于形式，實(shí)質(zhì)上僅限于業(yè)務(wù)合作，北約

高級官員選擇繞過正式渠道，通過推進(jìn)同歐盟的交叉通報(bào)（即直接參與對方高級別會(huì)議）

和雙邊會(huì)議，創(chuàng)造了良好的合作氣氛。

除此之外，北約還通過一系列屏蔽手段，盡可能保證與歐盟的談判不受成員國干擾。

首先，北約和歐盟設(shè)定了控制談判的共同程序，盡可能將談判屏蔽在異議成員國之外。

北約與歐盟關(guān)于深化合作關(guān)系的初步談判僅允許包含雙方?jīng)Q策者的五人小組進(jìn)行。只有

在達(dá)成一致意見后，談判小組才會(huì)與各國大使交換完整的草案，而草案也不得帶出會(huì)議

室。這些舉措確保了國際組織較之成員國具有更強(qiáng)的談判地位。

這些舉動(dòng)導(dǎo)致北約和歐盟的協(xié)作顯著增強(qiáng)，并于 2016 年 7 月達(dá)成了《聯(lián)合宣言》。

《聯(lián)合宣言》不僅明確了雙方深化合作的意愿，還將談判進(jìn)程中使用的非正式渠道常態(tài)

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化，使兩個(gè)組織之間的非正式信息交流更加全面、靈活性更高。同期，歐盟發(fā)展防務(wù)領(lǐng)域

所帶來的制度重疊以及潛在競爭風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則被北約淡化了。

2、第二階段：2016-2020

對歐盟而言，與北約加強(qiáng)合作只是其應(yīng)對新安全環(huán)境的手段之一，獲取戰(zhàn)略自主權(quán)、

推動(dòng)防務(wù)一體化發(fā)展同樣重要。從 2016 年至 2020 年，歐盟不斷推進(jìn)“永久結(jié)構(gòu)性合作”

防務(wù)合作協(xié)議（即 PESCO）在內(nèi)的防務(wù)一體化建設(shè)，實(shí)則激化了與北約在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域的制

度重疊。

相應(yīng)地，在 2016 年《聯(lián)合宣言》簽署后，北約看待歐盟發(fā)展的視角也逐漸從正和走

向零和。由于防務(wù)是北約的核心職能，感受到威脅的北約不再認(rèn)為歐盟的防務(wù)能力建設(shè)

是對北約職能的補(bǔ)充，而認(rèn)為這是對北約的替代，同時(shí)將導(dǎo)致歐盟拋棄北約核心成員國

美國的防務(wù)戰(zhàn)略設(shè)計(jì)。為了維護(hù)自己以及成員國的利益與地位，北約開始有選擇地支持

或反對歐盟防務(wù)建設(shè)，既避免與歐盟關(guān)系出現(xiàn)裂痕，同時(shí)保證北約在歐洲安保領(lǐng)域的首

要地位。

北約開始利用各種行為與話語手段抵制歐盟在軍事領(lǐng)域造就的制度重疊。通過分析

2016 年夏季至 2020 年底，北約秘書長發(fā)表的 37 次相關(guān)講話，可發(fā)現(xiàn)北約對歐盟的態(tài)度

逐漸強(qiáng)硬：在《聯(lián)合宣言》發(fā)表后一段時(shí)間，北約主要重視宣傳與歐盟務(wù)實(shí)合作的初步成

果。隨著歐盟的防務(wù)倡議日益受重視，北約在宣傳中也更頻繁地提及與歐盟在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域

合作的愿望，并對歐盟防務(wù)建設(shè)舉措表示歡迎，前提是其與北約相輔相成，并為北約所

用。而很快，北約開始傾向于對歐盟發(fā)出更直接的警告。2018 年 2 月的慕尼黑安全會(huì)議

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上，北約秘書長直言“歐盟無法獨(dú)自保護(hù)歐洲”，警告歐盟不要試圖“將北美與歐洲分割開

來”，并批評歐盟主張的戰(zhàn)略自主等概念的政治意義大于實(shí)質(zhì)意義，“不是明智之舉”。

在具體行動(dòng)上，北約雖然沒有直接干預(yù)歐盟防務(wù)建設(shè)的手段，卻仍然利用各種各樣

外交和議程設(shè)置等方式引導(dǎo)歐盟在防務(wù)建設(shè)方面妥協(xié)，保證了自身在歐洲安保領(lǐng)域的地

位。首先，北約繼續(xù)與歐盟合作，致力于加強(qiáng)與歐盟的政治對話，以便對歐盟取得更大影

響。利用逐漸成為慣例的非正式渠道，此階段北約和歐盟的政治接觸不斷增加，并于 2018

年 7 月同歐盟再次簽署《聯(lián)合宣言》，重申了推進(jìn)務(wù)實(shí)合作的承諾。同時(shí)，北約也通過

幕后游說，引導(dǎo)歐盟就 PESCO 達(dá)成妥協(xié)方案，并允許第三方（即北約）參與歐盟的防務(wù)

建設(shè)。北約秘書長積極利用與歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的密切聯(lián)系進(jìn)行私下談判，還與反對歐盟防務(wù)

建設(shè)的北約成員國（如美國或荷蘭）密切合作，以形成合力。除此之外，北約還積極推進(jìn)

改革，以制衡歐盟在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域的職能擴(kuò)張，保障北約在歐洲安全中的首要地位。北約一

方面促進(jìn)盟友團(tuán)結(jié)、加強(qiáng)政治協(xié)商，另一方面也呼吁歐洲各國“承認(rèn)北約仍然是強(qiáng)大集體

防御的跨大西洋框架，也是盟國間安全磋商和決策的重要論壇”。

通過上述手段，北約成功地鞏固了在歐洲安全架構(gòu)中的首要地位。雖然期間反對北

約-歐盟關(guān)系升格的美國總統(tǒng)特朗普和法國總統(tǒng)馬克龍當(dāng)選，而過去曾充當(dāng)兩個(gè)組織之間

跨大西洋橋梁的英國也退出了歐盟，導(dǎo)致北約的行動(dòng)空間比前一時(shí)期受到了更大的限制，

但北約還是成功鞏固了自己在歐洲安全架構(gòu)中的首要地位，并通過與歐盟的持續(xù)合作重

塑了歐盟的戰(zhàn)略一體化進(jìn)程，促使歐盟就一些防務(wù)建設(shè)問題妥協(xié)。

四、結(jié)論

本文探究了北約對 2014 年以來與歐盟日益加劇的制度重疊的看法和反應(yīng)。起初，

2014 年的地緣政治震蕩使北約認(rèn)為必須與歐盟建立更密切的關(guān)系以應(yīng)對安全挑戰(zhàn)、加強(qiáng)

地區(qū)安保能力。因此，北約在話語和行為上均鼓勵(lì)歐盟防務(wù)一體化建設(shè)，推動(dòng)與歐盟的

合作最終推動(dòng)了《聯(lián)合宣言》的發(fā)表。然而，北約發(fā)現(xiàn)歐盟的防務(wù)一體化建設(shè)逐漸展現(xiàn)出

與北約戰(zhàn)略脫鉤的勢頭。作為回應(yīng)，北約自 2016 年以來采取雙重戰(zhàn)略，一方面鼓勵(lì)雙方

合作，另一方面又阻撓歐盟威脅北約地位的舉措。在此期間，北約不僅鞏固其在歐洲安

全架構(gòu)中的首要地位，同時(shí)也與歐盟創(chuàng)造更大的協(xié)同效應(yīng)，進(jìn)而重塑了同歐盟的關(guān)系。

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然而，北約也將一直面臨邊緣化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2021 年以來，中國的崛起、美國自阿富汗

的撤軍、西式民主的衰落以及一系列新的安全挑戰(zhàn)都讓歐洲乃至西方質(zhì)疑北約的真實(shí)作

用。美國外交政策界仍然在激烈爭論著北約應(yīng)在國際舞臺扮演什么角色，而歐洲戰(zhàn)略自

主權(quán)的討論也遠(yuǎn)非結(jié)束。但正如本文所述，在面對各種國際事務(wù)時(shí)，北約仍能發(fā)揮巨大

的影響力，絕非被動(dòng)的棋子。

對本研究而言，北約的案例證明了國際組織行為體的偏好決定其應(yīng)對制度重疊的方

式。進(jìn)一步研究可以分析其他制度重疊案例，如世界銀行與亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和投資銀行的

制度重疊、國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)與國際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)之間的制度重疊，并研究相關(guān)國際組織

的應(yīng)對方式，進(jìn)而持續(xù)檢驗(yàn)本文所提出的假說是否可應(yīng)用于其他類型的國際組織。

? 譯者評述

本文通過探究非國家行為體在應(yīng)對制度重疊中的作用，揭示了國際組織以及其高級

官員的能動(dòng)性，豐富了學(xué)界的相關(guān)研究。在研究制度重疊問題時(shí)，現(xiàn)有研究大多以國家

為中心，從成員國的角度探討國家在促成制度重疊中發(fā)揮的關(guān)鍵作用以及制度重疊對國

家行為的影響。這些研究實(shí)則忽視了國際組織本身對制度重疊的影響，只將國際組織視

為國家追求其利益的功能場所。而本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，國際組織行為體也會(huì)形成獨(dú)立的偏好，

進(jìn)而影響國際組織對制度重疊的態(tài)度；而國際組織也會(huì)通過獨(dú)特的制度方式減少國家對

國際組織間關(guān)系的影響。

然而，本文的理論框架有待進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。文中的理論框架對合作和競爭的態(tài)度較為

二元化，然而現(xiàn)實(shí)中不同國際組織在競爭中合作的情況也不在少數(shù)。此舉不僅會(huì)帶來短

期的紅利，也會(huì)為雙方干預(yù)對方行動(dòng)創(chuàng)造機(jī)會(huì)。文中的北約案例已經(jīng)展現(xiàn)了國際組織行

動(dòng)的復(fù)雜性：即使面對有威脅自身地位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的歐盟，北約仍然在能夠合作的領(lǐng)域選擇了

合作，僅阻撓歐盟部分影響其地位的行動(dòng)，進(jìn)而影響了歐盟防務(wù)一體化建設(shè)的進(jìn)程。

此外，本文對競爭的前景十分悲觀，但尚未有更多現(xiàn)實(shí)案例對其進(jìn)行支撐。觀察理

論框架可知，本文認(rèn)為一旦國際組織間采取合作，最悲觀的前景也只是雙方共存；而一

旦國際組織互相對抗，最悲觀的前景則是某個(gè)國際組織失能并退出國際舞臺。然而，其

他研究通過觀察現(xiàn)已失能的“僵尸國際組織”發(fā)現(xiàn)，組織本身架構(gòu)不良、成員國不可彌合

的政治分歧而非與其他國際組織的競爭才是當(dāng)前一些國際組織發(fā)展陷入停滯的主要原因。

未來可以選取更多失能國際組織為案例，進(jìn)一步探究其發(fā)展停滯是否受惡性競爭影響。

【校對審核：羅潔 江若嬋 李源】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

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新刊速遞

《國際組織》（International Organization）

International Organization，Vol.77，No.3，2023

1. 非洲的新事物：國家生產(chǎn)奴隸，奴隸形成國家(Something New out of Africa:

States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States)

J.C. Sharman，劍橋大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際研究系教授

【摘要】在這篇文章中，作者從最初的人口和制度條件到外部需求的轉(zhuǎn)變、單個(gè)國家的應(yīng)對措施及其

集體的系統(tǒng)性后果，解釋了非洲奴隸制與國家形成之間的關(guān)系。從歷史上看，非洲統(tǒng)治者面臨著與眾

不同的挑戰(zhàn)：人口密度低，這對人口的控制比對領(lǐng)土的控制更為優(yōu)先，內(nèi)部分裂往往比外部征服構(gòu)成

更大的威脅。對奴隸需求的大規(guī)模增長為非洲統(tǒng)治者提供了更多利用外部資源進(jìn)行“由外而內(nèi)”式的

國家建設(shè)的機(jī)會(huì)。許多統(tǒng)治者通過建立高度軍事化的掠奪性奴隸制國家來做到這一點(diǎn)。其共同后果是

系統(tǒng)性不安全的加劇。這些發(fā)展在時(shí)間上的差異反映了對奴隸需求擴(kuò)大的地區(qū)和歷史變化。奴隸制國

家首先出現(xiàn)在西非，反映了 17 世紀(jì)末跨大西洋奴隸貿(mào)易的擴(kuò)張，一個(gè)世紀(jì)后，隨著印度洋奴隸貿(mào)易

的平行增長，奴隸制國家蔓延到東非。這種“由外而內(nèi)”的國家形成路徑與當(dāng)代后殖民國家的形成既

相似又形成對比。

【原文】In this article I explain a nexus between slavery and state formation in Africa, proceeding from initial

demographic and institutional conditions to an external demand shift, individual state responses, and their

collective systemic consequences. Historically, African rulers faced distinctive challenges: low population

density prioritized control of people more than territory, and internal disintegration was often a greater threat

《國際組織》（International Organization）是一份分析

政府和非政府組織運(yùn)行的同行評審學(xué)術(shù)期刊，由 Springer

出版。該刊涵蓋整個(gè)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注國際組

織的政策和結(jié)構(gòu)。2022 年該刊影響因子為 7.8，在國際關(guān)

系的 96 種期刊中排名第 1。

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than external conquest. A massive expansion in the demand for slaves offered African rulers increased

opportunities to use external resources for “outside-in” state building. Many did so by creating highly

militarized predatory slaving states. The collective consequence was heightened systemic insecurity. Variation

in the timing of these developments reflected regional and historical variation in the expansion of the demand

for slaves. Slaving states appeared first in West Africa, reflecting the late-seventeenth-century expansion of

the trans-Atlantic slave trade, before spreading to East Africa a century later, following the parallel later

increase in the Indian Ocean slave trade. This “outside-in” path to state formation both parallels and contrasts

with contemporary postcolonial state formation.

2. 專制政府如何決定誰移居國外：來自東德的證據(jù)（How Authoritarian

Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany）

Julian Michel，加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校博士候選人

Michael K. Miller，加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校副教授

Margaret E. Peters，加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校教授

【摘要】大多數(shù)專制國家限制移民，但仍允許一些公民出境。這些政權(quán)如何決定誰可以離開？作者

認(rèn)為，許多專制政權(quán)策略性地將移民目標(biāo)鎖定在反政權(quán)人士身上，從而培養(yǎng)出更忠誠的民眾，而不

會(huì)產(chǎn)生持續(xù)收編或鎮(zhèn)壓的弊端。然而，這就產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)問題，即鼓勵(lì)公民加入反對派活動(dòng)以確保離

境。作為回應(yīng)，專制政體同時(shí)會(huì)懲罰試圖移民的持不同政見者，從而將除最堅(jiān)定的反對者之外的所

有持不同政見者拒之門外。為了驗(yàn)證作者的理論，本文研究了從東德國家檔案館解密的兩萬多頁移

民申請中編碼的原始數(shù)據(jù)集。在對專制國家移民決定的首次個(gè)人層面檢驗(yàn)中，作者發(fā)現(xiàn)積極的反對

意見會(huì)促進(jìn)移民申請的批準(zhǔn)，但也會(huì)導(dǎo)致對申請者的懲罰。領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的人也更有可能獲得出境許

可，而專業(yè)人士的可能性較小。本文的研究結(jié)果揭示了全球移民的政治來源和一種被忽視的專制韌

性戰(zhàn)略。

【原文】Most autocracies restrict emigration yet still allow some citizens to exit. How do these regimes decide

who can leave? We argue that many autocracies strategically target anti-regime actors for emigration, thereby

crafting a more loyal population without the drawbacks of persistent co-optation or repression. However, this

generates problematic incentives for citizens to join opposition activity to secure exit. In response, autocracies

simultaneously punish dissidents for attempting to emigrate, screening out all but the most determined

opponents. To test our theory, we examine an original data set coded from over 20,000 pages of declassified

emigration applications from East Germany's state archives. In the first individual-level test of an autocracy's

emigration decisions, we find that active opposition promoted emigration approval but also punishment for

applying. Pensioners were also more likely to secure exit, and professionals were less likely. Our results shed

light on global migration's political sources and an overlooked strategy of autocratic resilience.

3. 偏差性合作：冷戰(zhàn)常規(guī)軍備控制中的社會(huì)壓力與論壇管理（Deflective

Cooperation: Social Pressure and Forum Management in Cold War Conventional

Arms Control）

104

Giovanni Mantilla，劍橋大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際研究系副教授

【摘要】為什么國家要建立薄弱的國際機(jī)構(gòu)？國際環(huán)境機(jī)構(gòu)層出不窮但卻令人失望，學(xué)者們對此感到

沮喪，越來越多的學(xué)者對這些協(xié)議表示遺憾，因?yàn)樗鼈兯坪踔皇?“擺設(shè)”，而不是解決問題。本文將

對這一現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行了解釋。作者將一種偏差性合作的動(dòng)態(tài)理論化，以解釋妥協(xié)性“面子機(jī)構(gòu)”的產(chǎn)生。

作者認(rèn)為，當(dāng)國際社會(huì)要求建立一種制度的壓力與各國對建立這種制度的利弊的持久分歧發(fā)生沖突時(shí)，

各國可能會(huì)采取設(shè)計(jì)不合理的合作安排，以產(chǎn)生其所謂的實(shí)際效果。作者認(rèn)為，與其說“面子機(jī)構(gòu)”

是談判失敗或空洞的姿態(tài)，不如說它代表著國家間通過次優(yōu)的制度化合作來管理棘手分歧的努力。作

者通過對冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期常規(guī)武器管制的一項(xiàng)新的多檔案研究歸納出這一論點(diǎn)，這些檔案最終形成了備受爭

議的 1980 年《禁止或限制使用特定常規(guī)武器公約》。作者對談判過程進(jìn)行了仔細(xì)的反思，擴(kuò)展并細(xì)

化了現(xiàn)有的國際關(guān)系理論，并將其作為一個(gè)競爭的外交實(shí)踐的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻和復(fù)雜產(chǎn)物，重新審視了其歷

史意義。

【原文】Why do states create weak international institutions? Frustrated with proliferating but disappointing

international environmental institutions, scholars increasingly bemoan agreements which, rather than solving

problems, appear to exist “for show.” This article offers an explanation of this phenomenon. I theorize a

dynamic of deflective cooperation to explain the creation of compromise face-saving institutions. I argue that

when international social pressure to create an institution clashes with enduring disagreements among states

about the merits of creating it, states may adopt cooperative arrangements that are ill-designed to produce their

purported practical effects. Rather than negotiation failures or empty gestures, I contend that face-saving

institutions represent interstate efforts to manage intractable disagreement through suboptimal institutionalized

cooperation. I formulate this argument inductively through a new multi-archival study of conventional

weapons regulation during the Cold War, which resulted in the oft-maligned 1980 UN Convention on Certain

Conventional Weapons. A careful reconsideration of the negotiation process extends and nuances existing IR

theorizing and retrieves its historical significance as a critical juncture and complex product of contesting

diplomatic practices.

4. 兩用欺騙：技術(shù)如何塑造國際關(guān)系中的合作（Dual Use Deception: How

Technology Shapes Cooperation in International Relations）

Jane Vaynman，天普大學(xué)助理教授

Tristan A. Volpe，美國海軍研究生院助理教授

【摘要】幾乎所有的技術(shù)在某種程度上都是兩用的：既可民用，也可軍用。這一特點(diǎn)給合作帶來了困

境。各國可以設(shè)計(jì)軍備控制機(jī)構(gòu)，以減少對某些軍事技術(shù)代價(jià)高昂的競爭。但它們也不想限制有價(jià)值

的民用技術(shù)。技術(shù)的兩用性如何影響合作前景？作者認(rèn)為，技術(shù)的兩用性并不是因?yàn)樗拇嬖诙鴰?/p>

挑戰(zhàn)，而是通過它改變信息對軍控機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的制約方式而帶來挑戰(zhàn)。作者從兩個(gè)兩用維度來描述技術(shù)

的變化：其一，區(qū)分軍用與民用的難易程度；其二，軍工企業(yè)與民用經(jīng)濟(jì)的融合程度?？蓞^(qū)分性決定

了發(fā)現(xiàn)違規(guī)行為所需的監(jiān)控水平。如果武器無法與它的民用對立面區(qū)分開來，國家就必須通過情報(bào)收

集或侵入性檢查來提高偵測能力。集成性會(huì)增加向他國披露信息的成本。對于高度集成的技術(shù)而言，

展示合規(guī)性可能會(huì)暴露有關(guān)其他功能的信息，從而增加間諜活動(dòng)帶來的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這些因素共同作用，

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使人們對國家在試圖制定各種技術(shù)協(xié)議時(shí)所面臨的具體信息問題產(chǎn)生了預(yù)期。作者引入了一個(gè)新的定

性數(shù)據(jù)集來評估這兩個(gè)變量及其對所有現(xiàn)代軍備技術(shù)合作的影響。研究結(jié)果有力地支持了這一理論。

控制新興技術(shù)的努力應(yīng)考慮兩用性的變化如何形成檢測和披露之間的緊張關(guān)系。

【原文】Almost all technology is dual use to some degree: it has both civilian and military applications. This

feature creates a dilemma for cooperation. States can design arms control institutions to curtail costly

competition over some military technology. But they also do not want to limit valuable civilian uses. How

does the dual use nature of technology shape the prospects for cooperation? We argue that the duality of

technology presents a challenge not by its very existence but rather through the ways it alters information

constraints on the design of arms control institutions. We characterize variation in technology along two dual

use dimensions: (1) the ease of distinguishing military from civilian uses; and (2) the degree of integration

within military enterprises and the civilian economy. Distinguishability drives the level of monitoring needed

to detect violations. When a weapon is indistinguishable from its civilian counterpart, states must improve

detection though intelligence collection or intrusive inspections. Integration sharpens the costs of disclosing

information to another state. For highly integrated technology, demonstrating compliance could expose

information about other capabilities, increasing the security risks from espionage. Together, these dimensions

generate expectations about the specific information problems states face as they try to devise agreements over

various technologies. We introduce a new qualitative data set to assess both variables and their impact on

cooperation across all modern armament technologies. The findings lend strong support for the theory. Efforts

to control emerging technologies should consider how variation in the dual use attributes shapes this tension

between detection and disclosure.

5. 破解核穩(wěn)定：技術(shù)、不確定性和升級的戰(zhàn)爭博弈（Hacking Nuclear

Stability: Wargaming Technology, Uncertainty, and Escalation）

Jacquelyn Schneider，斯坦福大學(xué)國際安全與合作中心胡佛研究員

Benjamin Schechter，美國海軍戰(zhàn)爭學(xué)院高級軍事行動(dòng)分析師

Rachael Shaffer，美國海軍戰(zhàn)爭學(xué)院研究助理

【摘要】新興技術(shù)如何影響核穩(wěn)定？在本文中，我們使用了一個(gè)有 580 名玩家參與的準(zhǔn)實(shí)驗(yàn)性—網(wǎng)

絡(luò)核戰(zhàn)爭游戲，來探討有關(guān)新興技術(shù)與核穩(wěn)定的三個(gè)假設(shè)：其一，技術(shù)的不確定性導(dǎo)致先發(fā)制人和升

級；其二，技術(shù)的不確定性導(dǎo)致克制；其三，技術(shù)的確定性通過積極的反擊行動(dòng)導(dǎo)致升級。戰(zhàn)爭游戲

表明，對網(wǎng)絡(luò)脆弱性的不確定性和恐懼并不會(huì)立即刺激先發(fā)制人的核使用。戰(zhàn)略穩(wěn)定面臨的更大危險(xiǎn)

在于，對網(wǎng)絡(luò)漏洞的過度自信會(huì)如何激勵(lì)更激進(jìn)的反制行動(dòng)，其次，漏洞會(huì)如何鼓勵(lì)預(yù)先授權(quán)或自動(dòng)

化。這兩種效應(yīng)都表明，網(wǎng)絡(luò)漏洞與意外使用核武器之間以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)脆弱性與意外使用核武器之間都存

在令人擔(dān)憂的關(guān)系。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)共同揭示了升級途徑與戰(zhàn)略穩(wěn)定之間的復(fù)雜關(guān)系，凸顯了信心和也許是

錯(cuò)位的確定性相對于不確定性和恐懼在戰(zhàn)略穩(wěn)定中的作用。

【原文】How do emerging technologies affect nuclear stability? In this paper, we use a quasi-experimental

cyber-nuclear wargame with 580 players to explore three hypotheses about emerging technologies and nuclear

stability: (1) technological uncertainty leads to preemption and escalation; (2) technological uncertainty leads

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to restraint; and (3) technological certainty leads to escalation through aggressive counterforce campaigns.

The wargames suggest that uncertainty and fear about cyber vulnerabilities create no immediate incentives for

preemptive nuclear use. The greater danger to strategic stability lies in how overconfidence in cyber exploits

incentivizes more aggressive counterforce campaigns and, secondarily, how vulnerabilities encourage

predelegation or automation. Both of these effects suggest worrisome relationships between cyber exploits and

inadvertent nuclear use on one hand and cyber vulnerabilities and accidental nuclear use on the other hand.

Together, these findings reveal the complicated relationship between pathways to escalation and strategic

stability, highlighting the role that confidence and perhaps-misplaced certainty—versus uncertainty and fear—

play in strategic stability.

6.一體化世界中的隔離經(jīng)濟(jì)體：中低收入國家匯率變動(dòng)的性別后果（Segregated

Economies in an Integrated World: The Gendered Consequences of Exchange Rate

Movements in Low- and Middle-Income Countries）

Joel W. Simmons，喬治敦大學(xué)埃德蒙·沃爾什外事服務(wù)學(xué)院副教授

【摘要】作者認(rèn)為，匯率是發(fā)展中國家女性勞動(dòng)力參與程度存在顯著差異的一個(gè)未被充分重視的原因。

發(fā)展中國家的職業(yè)隔離現(xiàn)象是，外出工作的婦女往往被隔離在勞動(dòng)密集型的出口導(dǎo)向型行業(yè)。因此，

當(dāng)匯率高估導(dǎo)致出口價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，對女性勞動(dòng)力的需求就會(huì)相應(yīng)減少。這導(dǎo)致一些婦女退出勞動(dòng)力隊(duì)

伍。1990 年至 2015 年期間 150 多個(gè)中低收入國家的數(shù)據(jù)支持了這一論點(diǎn)。

【原文】I argue that exchange rates are an underappreciated explanation for the significant variation in the

extent of female labor force participation in developing countries. Occupational segregation in developing

countries is such that women working outside of the home tend to be segregated in labor-intensive exportoriented industries. Consequently, when an overvalued exchange rate increases export prices, it reduces

commensurately the demand for female labor. This causes some women to drop out of the labor force. Data

from over 150 low- and middle-income countries between 1990 and 2015 support this argument.

【編譯：李博軒】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

107

《國際組織評論》 （ The Review of International

Organizations）

The Review of International Organizations，Vol. 18, No. 4, 2023

1.國際排名與公共輿論：接受、忽視還是抵制？（International rankings and public

opinion: Compliance, dismissal, or backlash?）

Asif Efrat，以色列赫茲利亞跨學(xué)科研究中心研究員

Omer Yair，美國里士滿大學(xué)助理研究員

【摘要】盡管學(xué)界對國際排名的興趣日益濃厚，但對公眾如何看待它們知之甚少。國際排名是否使公

民接受國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)？還是公民只是簡單地忽視了排名？本文通過以色列公眾對美國打擊人口販運(yùn)努力

排名的回應(yīng)來研究這些問題。一項(xiàng)調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)，以色列從 1 級降級到 2 級讓以色列人無所畏懼。然

而降級到 3 級則會(huì)產(chǎn)生令人驚訝的抵制效應(yīng)，減少以色列人對反人口販運(yùn)努力的支持。雖然這應(yīng)該是

展示排名預(yù)期影響的可能案例，但本文表明，排名實(shí)際上可能會(huì)遇到不屑一顧或挑釁的公眾反應(yīng)。這

一發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，在評估國際排名的國內(nèi)影響時(shí)要謹(jǐn)慎，并且對排名設(shè)計(jì)以減少抵制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重要意義。

【原文】Despite growing scholarly interest in international rankings, we know little on how the public

perceives them. Do rankings bring citizens to favor compliance with international standards? Or do citizens

simply dismiss the rankings? We examine these questions through the Israeli public’s response to the U.S. tier

ranking of efforts against human trafficking. A survey experiment finds that Israel’s demotion from Tier 1 to

Tier 2 leaves Israelis unfazed; a demotion to Tier 3 produces a surprising backlash effect, reducing Israelis’

support for anti-trafficking efforts. While this should have been a likely case for demonstrating the intended

impact of rankings, we show that rankings might, in fact, meet a dismissive or defiant public response. This

finding suggests caution in the assessment of international rankings’ domestic impact, and it carries

implications for the design of rankings to reduce the risk of a backlash.

《國際組織評論》 （ The Review of International

Organizations）是一份分析政府和非政府組織運(yùn)行的同行

評審學(xué)術(shù)期刊，始發(fā)刊于 2006 年，由 Springer 出版。該

刊涵蓋整個(gè)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注國際組織的政策和

結(jié)構(gòu)。2022 年該刊影響因子為 3.9，在國際關(guān)系的 96 種期

刊中排名第 12。

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2.發(fā)現(xiàn)合作：國際組織的內(nèi)生變化（Discovering cooperation: Endogenous change in

international organizations）

Tobias Lenz，德國呂訥堡大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系教授

Besir Ceka，美國戴維森學(xué)院政治科學(xué)系副教授

Liesbet Hooghe，美國北卡羅來納大學(xué)教堂山分校政治科學(xué)系研究員

Gary Marks，美國北卡羅來納大學(xué)教堂山分校政治科學(xué)系教授

Alexandr Burilkov，德國呂訥堡大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系研究員

【摘要】為什么有些國際組織隨著時(shí)間的推移而增加授權(quán)，而另一些國際組織的授權(quán)卻是靜態(tài)的或下

降的？本文假設(shè)授權(quán)的動(dòng)力是由國際組織的創(chuàng)始契約決定的，植根于開放式合同的國際組織有能力隨

著時(shí)間的推移發(fā)現(xiàn)合作：當(dāng)出現(xiàn)新問題時(shí)，這些國際組織可以采取新政策或加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)有領(lǐng)域的合作。這

反過來又引發(fā)了對授權(quán)的需求。然而，這種邏輯是由國際組織的政治制度調(diào)解的。在以民主為主的國

際組織中，授權(quán)受到政治化的制約，這種制約會(huì)隨著國際實(shí)體政策組合的擴(kuò)大而加劇。這些論據(jù)使用

國際權(quán)威衡量數(shù)據(jù)集的升級版本進(jìn)行測試，該數(shù)據(jù)集涵蓋 1950 年至 2019 年間的 41 個(gè)區(qū)域國際組織。

通過控制替代解釋并解決一系列模型規(guī)范中的潛在內(nèi)生性，本文找到了對論點(diǎn)的有力支持。

【原文】Why do some international organizations (IO) accrete delegated authority over time while in others

delegation is static or declines? We hypothesize that the dynamics of delegation are shaped by an IO’s founding

contract. IOs rooted in an open-ended contract have the capacity to discover cooperation over time: as new

problems arise these IOs can adopt new policies or strengthen collaboration in existing areas. This, in turn,

triggers a demand for delegation. However, this logic is mediated by the political regime of the IO. In

predominantly democratic IOs, delegation is constrained by politicization which intensifies as an IO’s policy

portfolio broadens. These claims are tested using an updated version of the Measure of International Authority

dataset covering 41 regional IOs between 1950 and 2019. Controlling for alternative explanations and

addressing potential endogeneity across a range of model specifications, we find robust support for our

argument.

3.保護(hù)家園：企業(yè)投資計(jì)劃如何影響雙邊投資條約的形成（Protecting home: how

firms’ investment plans affect the formation of bilateral investment treaties）

Seung jun Kim，美國加利福尼亞大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

【摘要】人們普遍認(rèn)為，發(fā)展中國家尋求建立雙邊投資條約（BITs）以吸引外國直接投資（FDI）。

然而，發(fā)達(dá)國家在雙邊投資協(xié)定的制定中扮演什么角色卻相對未知。在談判外國直接投資交易時(shí)，跨

國公司（MNC）會(huì)預(yù)見到它們與東道國政府之間可能存在的投資爭端?？鐕緦で蠼档臀磥淼耐顿Y

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，要求本國政府與東道國簽訂雙邊投資協(xié)定是一個(gè)有吸引力的選擇。為了檢驗(yàn)關(guān)于資本輸出行為

者影響雙邊投資協(xié)定的論點(diǎn)，本文分析了外國直接投資項(xiàng)目公告數(shù)據(jù)，該數(shù)據(jù)記錄了跨國公司最終確

定參與外國直接投資計(jì)劃的時(shí)間。研究結(jié)果表明，跨國公司已計(jì)劃的外國直接投資與母國和東道國隨

后簽署雙邊投資協(xié)定的可能性密切相關(guān)。此外，通過將公司層面的財(cái)務(wù)信息與外國直接投資項(xiàng)目公告

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

109

相匹配，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)大公司是計(jì)劃的外國直接投資的來源時(shí)，母國更有可能與東道國建立雙邊投資協(xié)

定。這些研究結(jié)果表明，雙邊投資協(xié)定的創(chuàng)建不僅是由東道國的經(jīng)濟(jì)需求驅(qū)動(dòng)的，也是由母國保護(hù)其

政治特權(quán)企業(yè)的愿望驅(qū)動(dòng)的。

【原文】It is commonly accepted that developing countries pursue the creation of bilateral investment treaties

(BITs) to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, it is relatively unknown what role developed

countries play in the creation of BITs. When negotiating FDI deals, multinational corporations (MNCs)

anticipate potential investment disputes between themselves and the host government. MNCs seek to reduce

future investment risks, and asking their own government to secure BITs with the host country is an attractive

option for doing so. To test my argument about capital-exporting actors influencing BITs, I analyze FDI project

announcement data, which captures the timing of when MNCs finalize their plans to engage in FDI. The

findings show that MNCs’already-planned FDI is strongly associated with the probability of subsequent BIT

signing between the home and host country. Moreover, by matching firm-level financial information with FDI

project announcements, I show that home countries are more likely to establish BITs with host countries when

large firms are the source of the planned FDI. These findings suggest that BIT creation is not driven solely by

host countries’economic needs, but also by home countries’desire to protect their politically privileged firms.

4.全球治理中的制度重疊和政府間組織的設(shè)計(jì)（Institutional Overlap in Global

Governance and the Design of Intergovernmental Organizations）

Bernhard Reinsberg，英國格拉斯哥大學(xué)社會(huì)和政治科學(xué)學(xué)院教授

Oliver Westerwinter，瑞士圣加侖大學(xué)獨(dú)立研究者

【摘要】全球治理中日益密集的重疊制度網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何影響政府間組織（IGOs）的設(shè)計(jì)？本文認(rèn)為，制度

重疊可能會(huì)催生模仿潮流，即各國使用現(xiàn)有組織的設(shè)計(jì)來設(shè)計(jì)新的政府間組織，這些組織參與類似的

問題領(lǐng)域，并為類似的成員國執(zhí)行類似的治理任務(wù)作為模板。使用來自重疊制度參考組的設(shè)計(jì)模板是

有限理性設(shè)計(jì)者在復(fù)雜情況下的一種策略，因?yàn)樗鼫p少了不確定性并降低了確定合適的制度解決方案

的成本。因此，重疊增加了新的和現(xiàn)有的政府間組織之間設(shè)計(jì)的相似性，特別是在現(xiàn)有組織具有使其

能夠持久存在的制度設(shè)計(jì)的情況下。通過引入全球治理中制度重疊的新衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及來自“戰(zhàn)爭相關(guān)

項(xiàng)目”的 534 個(gè)政府間組織的設(shè)計(jì)和治理任務(wù)的新數(shù)據(jù)，本文使用回歸分析證實(shí)了論點(diǎn)。本文的研究

結(jié)果為制度設(shè)計(jì)、政權(quán)復(fù)雜性和更廣泛的全球治理理論提供了重要的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

【原文】How does the increasingly dense network of overlapping institutions in global governance affect the

design of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)? We argue that institutional overlap can unleash mimicking

dynamics whereby states design new IGOs using the design of existing organizations that engage in similar

issue areas and perform similar governance tasks for similar member states as templates. Using design

templates from the reference group of overlapping institutions is a strategy for boundedly rational designers

in situations of complexity because it reduces uncertainty and lowers the costs of identifying suitable

institutional solutions. Overlap therefore increases the design similarity between new and pre-existing IGOs,

specifically where pre-existing organizations have institutional designs that made them endure. Introducing a

new measure of institutional overlap in global governance and new data on the design and governance tasks

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of the 534 IGOs from the Correlates of War Project, we corroborate our argument using regression analyses.

Our results hold important lessons for theories of institutional design, regime complexity, and global

governance more broadly.

5.國際組織能否影響人們對監(jiān)管“大型科技公司”的態(tài)度？（Can IOs influence

attitudes about regulating “Big Tech”?）

Terrence L. Chapman，美國得克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校政府管理學(xué)院教授

Huimin Li，美國得克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校政府管理學(xué)院博士生候選人

【摘要】國際組織（IOs）能否影響人們對監(jiān)管“大型科技公司”的態(tài)度？最近的科技行業(yè)活動(dòng)引發(fā)了

多種擔(dān)憂，包括用戶數(shù)據(jù)的適當(dāng)使用和壟斷商業(yè)行為。國際組織已介入辯論，主張加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管以保護(hù)數(shù)

字隱私，并經(jīng)常將該問題視為對基本人權(quán)的威脅。這種宣傳重要嗎？本文假設(shè)在國際主義衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)上

得分較高的個(gè)人將積極響應(yīng)國際組織和國際非政府組織加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管的呼吁。本文進(jìn)一步預(yù)測，自由黨和

民主黨將更容易接受國際組織和非政府組織的信息，特別是在強(qiáng)調(diào)人權(quán)時(shí)，而保守黨和共和黨將更容

易接受國內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)強(qiáng)調(diào)反壟斷行動(dòng)的信息。為了評估這些論點(diǎn)，本文于 2021 年 7 月在美國進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)

具有全國代表性的調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)，該實(shí)驗(yàn)改變了有關(guān)科技公司構(gòu)成的危險(xiǎn)的信息的來源和框架，然后詢問

受訪者對加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管的支持。對于國際主義指數(shù)得分高的受訪者和政治光譜左翼的受訪者來說，接觸到

國際來源的消息的樣本平均影響最大。與預(yù)期相反，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)人權(quán)和反壟斷框架之間幾乎沒有顯著差

異。本文的研究結(jié)果表明，在兩極分化的時(shí)代，國際組織影響科技監(jiān)管態(tài)度的能力可能有限，但重視

多邊主義的個(gè)人可能仍會(huì)受到國際組織運(yùn)動(dòng)的影響。

【原文】Can international organizations (IOs) influence attitudes about regulating “Big Tech?” Recent

tech sector activity engenders multiple concerns, including the appropriate use of user data and monopolistic

business practices. IOs have entered the debate, advocating for increased regulations to protect digital privacy

and often framing the issue as a threat to fundamental human rights. Does this advocacy matter? We

hypothesize individuals that score high on measures of internationalism will respond positively to calls for

increased regulation that come from IOs and INGOs. We further predict Liberals and Democrats will be more

receptive to IO and NGO messaging, especially when it emphasizes human rights, while Conservatives and

Republicans will be more receptive to messaging from domestic institutions that emphasize antitrust actions.

To assess these arguments, we fielded a nationally-representative survey experiment in the U.S. in July 2021

that varied the source and framing of a message about the dangers posed by tech firms, then asked respondents

about support for increased regulation. The average treatment effect of international sources is largest for

respondents who score high on an index of internationalism and for respondents on the left of the political

spectrum. Contrary to expectations, we found few significant differences across human rights and anti-trust

framings. Our results suggest the ability of IOs to influence attitudes about tech regulation may be limited in

an era of polarization, but that individuals who value multilateralism may still be influenced by IO campaigns.

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6.國際組織的績效：基于評估報(bào)告計(jì)算文本分析的新度量和數(shù)據(jù)集（The performance

of international organizations: a new measure and dataset based on computational text

analysis of evaluation reports）

Steffen Eckhard, 德國澤佩林大學(xué)公共管理和公共政策教授

Vytautas Jankauskas，德國澤佩林大學(xué)公共管理和公共政策副教授

Elena Leuschner, 德國澤佩林大學(xué)公共管理和公共政策副教授

Ian Burton, 瑞典哥德堡大學(xué)副教授

Tilman Kerl，奧地利維也納工業(yè)大學(xué)副教授

Rita Sevastjanova，德國康斯坦茨大學(xué)副教授

【摘要】聯(lián)合國（UN）系統(tǒng)的國際組織（IOs）每年發(fā)布約 750 份評估報(bào)告，提供有關(guān)其在項(xiàng)目、計(jì)

劃、機(jī)構(gòu)和主題活動(dòng)方面的績效的見解。到目前為止，從這些基于文本的報(bào)告中提取定量績效指標(biāo)還

不可行。本文使用深度學(xué)習(xí)提出了一種新穎的基于文本的性能指標(biāo)：將單個(gè)句子分類為包含對所評估

的國際組織活動(dòng)的負(fù)面、正面或中性評估，然后計(jì)算每個(gè)報(bào)告中正面句子的份額。內(nèi)容驗(yàn)證表明該衡

量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)充分反映了績效的基本概念；收斂驗(yàn)證發(fā)現(xiàn)與世界銀行人工提供的績效評分高度相關(guān)；構(gòu)造驗(yàn)

證表明我們的措施具有理論上預(yù)期的結(jié)果。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了一個(gè)新穎的數(shù)據(jù)集，其中包含九

個(gè)聯(lián)合國系統(tǒng)國際組織實(shí)施的 1082 項(xiàng)評估活動(dòng)的績效衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并討論了進(jìn)一步研究的途徑。

【原文】International organizations (IOs) of the United Nations (UN) system publish around 750 evaluation

reports per year, offering insights on their performance across project, program, institutional, and thematic

activities. So far, it was not feasible to extract quantitative performance measures from these text-based reports.

Using deep learning, this article presents a novel text-based performance metric: We classify individual

sentences as containing a negative, positive, or neutral assessment of the evaluated IO activity and then

compute the share of positive sentences per report. Content validation yields that the measure adequately

reflects the underlying concept of performance; convergent validation finds high correlation with humanprovided performance scores by the World Bank; and construct validation shows that our measure has

theoretically expected results. Based on this, we present a novel dataset with performance measures for 1,082

evaluated activities implemented by nine UN system IOs and discuss avenues for further research.

【編譯：崔育淶】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

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《新政治經(jīng)濟(jì)》（New Political Economy）

New Political Economy，Vol.28，No.6，2023

1. “如果贏不了就不要玩”：家庭脫離澳大利亞養(yǎng)老金制度（Don’t play if you can’t

win’: household disengagement in the Australian pension system）

Antonia Settle，墨爾本大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)研究所博士后研究員

【摘要】為什么一些家庭未能接受養(yǎng)老金制度提供的財(cái)務(wù)控制機(jī)會(huì)而失敗？本文借鑒政治疏離和內(nèi)部

/外部理論的文獻(xiàn)，提供了一個(gè)新的解釋。本篇分析使用來自澳大利亞養(yǎng)老金制度中個(gè)人家庭的態(tài)度、

參與和分配結(jié)果的客觀和主觀度量來構(gòu)建數(shù)據(jù)。本篇研究將失去參與度與態(tài)度疏離聯(lián)系起來，并表明，

在養(yǎng)老金制度中系統(tǒng)性受到不利待遇的家庭不僅更有可能失去參與度，而且對制度的不公正看法更強(qiáng)

烈。因此，本文提出，一些家庭會(huì)以退出參與來拒絕個(gè)人賬戶制度，就像“局外人”通過放棄投票來

拒絕政治制度，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為該制度對他們不利。本文借鑒了疏離文獻(xiàn)對公民政治責(zé)任失去參與度的

分析，將失去參與度的分析擴(kuò)展到更新的公民財(cái)務(wù)責(zé)任研究當(dāng)中。

【原文】Drawing on the literature on political alienation and insider/outsider theory, this paper offers a novel

explanation for the failure of some households to embrace the opportunities for financial control offered by

the pension system. The analysis uses data from a financial diaries study to construct objective and subjective

measures of attitudes, engagement and distributional outcomes for individual households in the Australian

pension system. By showing that households that are systematically disadvantaged in the pension system not

only are much more likely to be disengaged but have much stronger convictions about unfairness in the system,

the findings link disengagement to alienation. The analysis thus proposes that some households reject the

system of individualised accounts by disengaging – like ‘outsiders’ reject the political system by abstaining

from voting – because they see the system as stacked against them. Drawing on the alienation literature’s

《新政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》（New Political Economy）是一份涵蓋

國際政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的雙月刊同行評審學(xué)術(shù)期刊。其成立

于 1996 年，由 Routledge 出版社出版。本刊是國際政治經(jīng)

濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域的主流期刊之一，與《國際政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)評論》

（Review of International Political Economy）并列。2022

年該刊影響因子為 4.2。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

113

analysis of disengagement with political responsibilities of citizenship, the article thus extends the analysis of

disengagement to newer financial responsibilities of citizenship.

2. 國家金融化的限制：探索英國、以色列和加拿大將社會(huì)影響力債券作為金融化治國

手段的障礙（Limits to the financialisation of the state: exploring obstructions to social

impact bonds as a form of financialised statecraft in the UK, Israel, and Canada）

Asa Maron, 以色列海法大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)系助理教授

James W. Williams，加拿大多倫多約克大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】金融化文獻(xiàn)研究中出現(xiàn)了“國家轉(zhuǎn)向”，學(xué)者們探討了國家行為者采用金融活動(dòng)的情況，但

對國家金融化的限制關(guān)注較少。本文以社會(huì)影響債券（SIB）為例，探討了這些限制。2010 年 SIB 首

次在英國推出，隨后在 35 個(gè)國家進(jìn)行試點(diǎn)，該模式利用私人資本資助社會(huì)項(xiàng)目，政府根據(jù)成功程度

提供回報(bào)。盡管預(yù)期有大幅增長，但 SIB 模式從未真正占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。本文以英國、以色列和加拿大

的 SIB 推出為基礎(chǔ)，考慮了 SIB 企業(yè)作為金融化國家戰(zhàn)略形式所遇到的挑戰(zhàn)，并確定了三個(gè)障礙：

（1）對國家金融化政治議程的抵制；（2）金融和公共部門文化之間的沖突；（3）金融創(chuàng)新被視為對

根深蒂固的社會(huì)技術(shù)慣例的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”和“破壞”。這些障礙揭示了國家本身內(nèi)部和金融與公共部門之

間的緊張關(guān)系，并表明思考國家金融化的限制和失敗的重要性。

【原文】Within the financialisation literature, scholars have turned their attention to the state, exploring the

adoption of financial activities by state actors, paying less attention to the limits of state financialisation. This

paper explores these limits using the case of social impact bonds (SIBs). Pioneered in the UK in 2010 and

subsequently trialed in some 35 countries, SIBs use private capital to fund social programs, with governments

providing a return based on the degree of success. Despite expectations of dramatic growth, the SIB model

has never truly taken hold. Based on the rollout of SIBs in the UK, Israel, and Canada, the paper considers the

challenges encountered by the SIB enterprise as a form of financialised statecraft and identifies three barriers:

(1) resistance to political agendas of state financialisation; (2) clashes between finance and public sector

cultures; (3) financial innovation seen as ‘risk’ and ‘disruption’ to entrenched socio-technical routines. These

barriers reveal tensions both within the state itself and between finance and the public sector, and indicate the

importance of thinking about the limits and failures of state financialisation.

3. 中國央行數(shù)字貨幣（CBDC）：貨幣與權(quán)力關(guān)系的評估（China’s central bank digital

currency (CBDC): an assessment of money and power relations）

Luiza Peruffo，南里奧格蘭德聯(lián)邦大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與國際關(guān)系系教授

André Moreira Cunha，南里奧格蘭德聯(lián)邦大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與國際關(guān)系系教授

Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines，南里奧格蘭德聯(lián)邦大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與國際關(guān)系系副教授

【摘要】本文反映了中國央行數(shù)字貨幣（CDBC）在貨幣和權(quán)力關(guān)系方面的意義，并認(rèn)為它不會(huì)代表

與以美元為中心的國際貨幣金融體系(IMFS)的斷裂。本文結(jié)合了三種理論方法——貨幣性質(zhì)、貨幣國

際化和貨幣等級——構(gòu)建了一個(gè)分析框架，有助于理解貨幣和國家權(quán)力之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。該框架強(qiáng)調(diào)

了貨幣主導(dǎo)地位和潛在的貨幣等級的基本地位，解釋了 IMFS 的更廣泛配置和演進(jìn)。雖然中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)

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體量和其貨幣(實(shí)體或數(shù)字)的國際使用之間存在巨大的不對稱性，但這一矛盾并不一定依賴組合一個(gè)

更公平的貨幣發(fā)行的分配機(jī)制即要求世界其他地區(qū)使用其貨幣并為其帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治優(yōu)勢(所謂的

“過度特權(quán)”)而解決。

【原文】This article reflects on the meaning of China’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CDBC) with respect

to money and power relations to argue that it will not represent a rupture with the dollar centric international

monetary and financial system (IMFS). It combines three theoretical approaches – on the nature of money, on

currency internationalisation and on currency hierarchy – to build an analytical framework that adds to the

literature that strives to understand the dynamics between money and state power. This framework stresses the

fundamental place of currency dominance and of an underlying currency hierarchy that explains the broader

configuration and evolution of the IMFS. While there is an enormous asymmetry between the economic weight

of China and the international use of its currency (physical or digital), it does not necessarily follow that this

tension will be resolved by assembling a fairer distribution of the economic and political advantages that come

along with issuing a currency that is used by the rest of the world (the so-called ‘exorbitant privilege’).

4.包容還是拉攏？金融領(lǐng)域性別多元化候選人的招聘（Inclusion or co-optation?

Navigating recruitment as a gender diversity candidate in finance Inclusion or cooptation? Navigating recruitment as a gender diversity candidate in finance）Laia

Balcells，喬治城大學(xué)政治管理系教授

Alexander Kuo，牛津大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系系及基督堂學(xué)院教授

【摘要】在 2008 年金融危機(jī)后的十年里，針對性別的多元化和包容性倡議在全球金融中心不斷增加。

女權(quán)主義政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家批評了爭取性別和種族平等的斗爭如何通過包容性努力而被拉攏的方式，以及

它們?nèi)绾沃饕糜谑宫F(xiàn)有的制度實(shí)踐合法化。同時(shí)，多元化和包容性倡議為新興的專業(yè)人士開辟了反

抗空間，讓她們從邊緣化的經(jīng)歷中汲取經(jīng)驗(yàn)、制定批評并反抗不平等的產(chǎn)生過程。在這項(xiàng)研究中，我

借鑒了金融領(lǐng)域中性別多元化項(xiàng)目的實(shí)地和訪談研究資料，分析了在新加入行業(yè)的人員如何在多元化

方案中發(fā)揮籠絡(luò)吸納和批評的作用。我參考了 De Jong 和 Kimm（2017）的籠絡(luò)吸納（co-optation）研

究議程作為概念參考，展示了在這個(gè)特定的制度矩陣中籠絡(luò)吸納的機(jī)制、效果和行為體的感知是如何

同時(shí)發(fā)揮作用的。圍繞多元化制度實(shí)踐的斷層表明，為金融機(jī)構(gòu)服務(wù)的霸權(quán)整合還不完整，關(guān)于職業(yè)、

市場和金融化社會(huì)包容性的爭論仍在繼續(xù)。

【原文】In the decade-plus following the financial crisis of 2008, diversity and inclusion initiatives –

especially those targeting gender – have proliferated in global financial centres. Feminist political economists

critique the ways that struggles for gender and racial equality can become co-opted via inclusion endeavours,

and how they may primarily serve to legitimate existing institutional practices. At the same time, diversity and

inclusion initiatives open up counterspace for emerging professionals to draw from experiences of

marginalisation, formulate critiques, and push back against processes that generate inequalities. In this study,

I draw from field-based and interview research on gender diversity programmes in finance to analyse how

dynamics of co-optation and critique play out as recent initiates into the industry navigate diversity offerings.

I refer to De Jong and Kimm’s (2017) research agenda on co-optation as conceptual reference, demonstrating

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how mechanisms, effects, and actor’s perceptions of co-optation play out together in this particular institutional

matrix. The fault lines that emerge around institutional practices of diversity indicate where a hegemonic

incorporation that would serve the financial establishment is incomplete and contestations over the inclusivity

of professions, markets and financialised societies remain.

5. 揭開貨幣主義的面紗：1970-1985 年美國通貨膨脹的分解（Piercing the veil of

monetarism: a decomposition of American inflation, 1970–1985）

Brian Judge，加州大學(xué)伯克利分校人類兼容人工智能中心人工智能政策研究員

【摘要】在 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代，通貨膨脹成為了一種貨幣現(xiàn)象。十年前，物價(jià)上漲被歸因于國內(nèi)和國際

力量的復(fù)雜交織，而最近通貨膨脹被廣泛視為是政府錯(cuò)誤政策的后果。最初的黨派的斗爭口號變成了

社會(huì)科學(xué)的前提：通貨膨脹在 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代在美國的歷史是由政治勝利者來講述的。本文通過揭示

幾十年來被意識形態(tài)埋藏的一組事實(shí)，對其進(jìn)行了還原。通過對通貨膨脹統(tǒng)計(jì)指數(shù)的分解，本文證明

了 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代物價(jià)上漲是由政治構(gòu)建的市場中傳播的一系列偶然事件共同驅(qū)動(dòng)的。全球可交易商

品價(jià)格的大幅上漲與前所未有的利率上調(diào)相結(jié)合，將消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)推向了新的高度。通過這些歷史

的組合，本文展示了“通貨膨脹”及其在 1982 年后的緩解是各種原本不相關(guān)的干擾因素的匯合，而

不是沃爾克沖擊所徹底顛覆的“過多的貨幣追逐過少的商品”現(xiàn)象。

【原文】Over the course of the 1970s, inflation became a monetary phenomenon. At the beginning of the

decade, price increases were attributed to a complex intersection of domestic and international forces. By the

end of the decade, inflation was widely seen as a consequence of misguided government policy. What began

as a partisan battle cry became a social scientific premise: the history of inflation in the 1970s in the United

States is told by the political victors. This article recovers a set of facts buried beneath decades of ideological

sedimentation. Through a decomposition of the statistical index of inflation, this article demonstrates that price

increases in the 1970s were driven by a confluence of contingent events propagating through politically

constructed markets. Sharp increases in the prices of tradeable global commodities combined with

unprecedented interest rate hikes to send the Consumer Price Index to new highs. Through these component

histories, the article demonstrates how the aggregate phenomenon of ‘inflation’ and its subsequent remission

after 1982 marked the confluence of otherwise unrelated disruptions rather than ‘too much money chasing too

few goods’ decisively upended by the Volcker shock.

6. 通過比較資本主義框架理解“依附性”：希臘作為依附性市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的概念化研究

（Understanding ‘dependency’ through the comparative capitalisms framework:

conceptualisation of Greece as a dependent market economy）

Konrad Sobczyk，曼徹斯特大學(xué)政治系助教

【摘要】本文涉及全球政治經(jīng)濟(jì)中國家依附性的爭論。它從“依附機(jī)制”的概念出發(fā)，與比較資本主

義(CC)文獻(xiàn)（即制度和第三代視角）建立了協(xié)同關(guān)系。本文通過將“依附性市場經(jīng)濟(jì)”這一既定范疇

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應(yīng)用于希臘，擴(kuò)展了資本主義的多樣性(VoC)框架。基于金融化作為依賴機(jī)制，本文認(rèn)為，這使希臘

陷入對外債務(wù)的依賴地位、歐元區(qū)內(nèi)的依附地位，以及在債權(quán)人要求實(shí)施改革后脆弱的局面。然而，

由于其資本主義模式的內(nèi)部歷史結(jié)構(gòu)問題，希臘無法將金融化依賴的負(fù)面影響降至最低，并且在未來

如果外部依賴被消除，內(nèi)部準(zhǔn)備不足，難以擺脫其外圍地位。本文認(rèn)為，依附理論和比較資本主義文

獻(xiàn)之間可以建立概念上的協(xié)同關(guān)系，可以提供更全面的關(guān)于依附性資本主義多樣性背景下內(nèi)部和外部

因素相互作用的解釋。

【原文】This article relates to debates about dependency of countries in the global political economy. It

conceptualises dependency by drawing on the concept of ‘mechanisms of dependency’, and builds a synergy

with the Comparative Capitalisms (CC) literature (i.e. institutional and third-generation perspectives). The

article expands the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) framework by applying the established category of

Dependent Market Economy to Greece. Building on financialisation as a mechanism of dependency, the article

argues this locked Greece into reliance on external debt, dependent position within the Eurozone, as well as

vulnerable situation after reforms demanded by the creditors were implemented. However, due to internal

historical-structural issues with its capitalist model, Greece was unable to minimise the negative impact of

financialised dependence, and is internally weakly prepared to escape from its peripheral status in the future

if external dependence will be removed. The article argues that conceptual synergy between dependency

theory and the CC literature is desirable in order to provide a more holistic account of interaction between

external and internal factors in the context of dependent capitalist varieties.

7. 多維社會(huì)沖突與制度變遷（Multidimensional social conflict and institutional

change）

Bruno Amable，日內(nèi)瓦大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)歷史系教授

Stefano Palombarini，巴黎大學(xué)第八大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】本文提出了一種基于社會(huì)群體感知利益多樣性的社會(huì)沖突、制度變革和危機(jī)的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。

多維沖突包括意識形態(tài)、制度和政治。社會(huì)群體在某個(gè)維度上可能處于支配地位或被支配地位，社會(huì)

沖突的性質(zhì)反映了不同社會(huì)群體在這些維度上的地位差異。政治穩(wěn)定取決于是否存在一個(gè)占主導(dǎo)地位

的社會(huì)集團(tuán)，即支持執(zhí)政者的政治行為體的社會(huì)聯(lián)盟。政治行為體實(shí)施制度變革是為了尋求支持。危

機(jī)與主導(dǎo)社會(huì)陣營的瓦解相照應(yīng)。試圖通過重建主導(dǎo)社會(huì)陣營來擺脫危機(jī)，成功機(jī)會(huì)有大有小，這取

決于能否找到一種政治策略，使具有不同利益感知的社會(huì)群體的期望相容。本文以法國和意大利近幾

十年來的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治形勢為例，展示了所提出的分析框架如何為社會(huì)危機(jī)情況下的制度變遷研究提供

參考。

【原文】This paper proposes a political economy of social conflict, institutional change and crises based on

the diversity of perceived interests among social groups. The multidimensional conflict includes ideology,

institutions, and politics. Social groups may be in a dominant or dominated position in one or the other

dimension, and the nature of social conflict reflects the differences in positions of the various social groups in

these dimensions. Political stability hinges on the existence of a dominant social bloc, i.e. a social alliance

supporting the ruling political actors. The implementation of institutional change by political actors is driven

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by the search for support. Crisis situations correspond to the rupture of the dominant social bloc. Attempts to

emerge from the crisis with the reconstitution of a dominant social bloc will have more or less chance of

success depending on the possibility of finding a political strategy that can make the expectations of social

groups with different perceived interests compatible. Using examples from the French and Italian economic

and political situations in recent decades, we show how the proposed analytical framework can inform the

study of institutional change in situations of social crisis.

8. 保護(hù)還是懲罰債務(wù)人？政策制定者關(guān)于國家在個(gè)人債務(wù)治理中的作用的討

論（Protect or punish debtors? Policymaker discourse on the state’s role in

personal debt governance）

Tomá? Ho?ení Samec，捷克科學(xué)院社會(huì)學(xué)研究所副研究員

Lucie Trlifajová，捷克科學(xué)院社會(huì)學(xué)研究所研究員

【摘要】個(gè)人債務(wù)是一種增加個(gè)人能動(dòng)性的工具，但卻嵌入了道德和法律框架，將人們構(gòu)造為個(gè)性化

的金融主體。本文旨在通過聚焦個(gè)人債務(wù)治理模式，豐富有關(guān)國家在主體金融化方面的研究。這些治

理模式在政策制定者對國家在個(gè)人債務(wù)監(jiān)管中的作用的話語中被構(gòu)建。本文的論點(diǎn)以捷克共和國為背

景，該國在 2021 年有 10%的成年人面臨法律債務(wù)強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行，嚴(yán)重破壞了他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。通過分析

84 份議會(huì)辯論記錄和 32 個(gè)與消費(fèi)者信貸和債務(wù)救濟(jì)法相關(guān)的監(jiān)管影響評估文件，本文展示了債務(wù)治

理和國家角色的矛盾和復(fù)雜性。盡管實(shí)施了兩種主要的國家角色——懲罰性和保護(hù)性——但政策制定

者的話語形式類似于一種連續(xù)體，融合了各種道德邏輯，賦予了多種責(zé)任（個(gè)人、國家和私人行為者），

并積極協(xié)商債務(wù)人的應(yīng)得性類別。本文認(rèn)為，通過強(qiáng)調(diào)金融教育作為解決市場失靈（掠奪性貸款）的

工具，金融化的邏輯和結(jié)構(gòu)得到了重申，盡管這為重新談判和對此類國家職能的潛在抵制留下了一定

的話語空間。

【原文】Personal debt is a device increasing one’s agency but embedded within moral and legal frameworks

that constructs people as individualised financial subjects. This article aims to enrich research on the state role

in (subject) financialisation through a focus on personal debt governance modes as constructed in policymaker

discourse on the state role in personal debt regulation. Our argument is contextualised in the Czech Republic,

where, in 2021, 10 per cent of the adult population faced legal debt enforcement, significantly disrupting their

economic situation. Through an analysis of 84 parliamentary debate transcripts and 32 regulatory impact

assessment documents related to consumer credit and debt relief laws, we illustrate the ambivalence and

complexity of debt governance and state roles. Although two main state roles were enacted – punitive and

protective – the policymaker discourse forms a continuum of sorts, blending various moral logics, ascribing

multiple responsibilities (individual, state and private actors) and intensively negotiating the category of debtor

deservingness. We argue that by accenting financial education as a tool to solve perceived market failures

(predatory lending), the financialised logic and structures are reaffirmed, albeit leaving certain discursive

spaces for renegotiation and potential resistance against such state functions.

9. 從外部救助到內(nèi)部紓困：解釋愛爾蘭和塞浦路斯國際金融援助請求的多樣

118

化反應(yīng)（From Bail-out to Bail-in: explaining the variegated responses to the

international financial aid requests of Ireland and Cyprus）

Dimitris Papadimitriou，曼徹斯特大學(xué)政治系教授

Adonis Pegasiou，歐洲管理與金融學(xué)院學(xué)術(shù)總監(jiān)

【摘要】2010 年爆發(fā)的歐元區(qū)金融危機(jī)促使其部分成員國請求其歐盟伙伴提供援助。歐洲層面對這些

請求的反應(yīng)是與國際貨幣基金組織協(xié)調(diào)進(jìn)行的，但并不一定以統(tǒng)一的步調(diào)。本文比較了愛爾蘭和塞浦

路斯的調(diào)整方案。盡管它們在獨(dú)立變量（當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)狀況）上相似，但愛爾蘭和塞浦路斯方案的設(shè)計(jì)（因

變量）存在根本性的區(qū)別，其中塞浦路斯引入了存款人直接損失的“轉(zhuǎn)股債券條款”。本文旨在解釋

這一關(guān)鍵政策偏離是如何形成的，以及是什么條件使其引入成為可能。通過考察危機(jī)響應(yīng)措施的時(shí)間

演變，本文特別關(guān)注四個(gè)解釋主題：（i）時(shí)間作為談判（劣）優(yōu)勢；（ii）時(shí)間作為政策學(xué)習(xí)平臺；

（iii）時(shí)間作為過去政策選擇的證明（路徑依賴性）；以及（iv）時(shí)間作為未來政策選擇的標(biāo)志（路

徑設(shè)置）。

【原文】The financial crisis that hit the Eurozone in 2010 drove a number of its members request assistance

from their EU partners. The reaction to these requests at the European level came in coordination with the

IMF, but not necessarily in a uniform manner. This article compares the adjustment programmes of Ireland

and Cyprus. Despite their similarity on the independent variable (local economic conditions), the design of the

Irish and Cypriot programmes (the dependent variable) differed fundamentally, not least because of the

introduction of the bail-in clause in Cyprus, involving direct loses for depositors. This article seeks to explain

how this key policy departure came to be and what were the conditions that made its introduction possible by

examining the temporal evolution of the crisis response and focusing in particular on four explanatory themes:

(i) time as a negotiating (dis)advantage; (ii) time as a platform for policy learning; (iii) time as a justifier of

past policy choices (path dependency) and (iv) time as a signifier of future policy choices (path setting).

10. 波蘭尼在中國農(nóng)村：超越雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)（Polanyi in rural China: beyond the

double movement）

Rowan Alcock，中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)人文與發(fā)展學(xué)院研究員

【摘要】本文闡明了使用波蘭尼理論審視中國農(nóng)村歷史軌跡的方法。本文批評了使用波蘭尼的雙向運(yùn)

動(dòng)概念分析國家-社會(huì)主義時(shí)期的做法，認(rèn)為由于雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)概念是明確用于分析土地和勞動(dòng)力市場化

的資本主義體系的，因此無法直接運(yùn)用于國家-社會(huì)主義時(shí)期。本文進(jìn)一步指出，由于雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)必然涉

及超越資本主義體系進(jìn)入社會(huì)主義的可能性，因此在國家-社會(huì)主義背景下使用雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)的解釋力進(jìn)

一步受到削弱。本文探討了毛時(shí)期的中國，建議使用波蘭尼在討論蘇聯(lián)時(shí)使用的詞匯來審視這個(gè)時(shí)期。

不過，本文支持使用波蘭尼的雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)概念來審視 1984 年后的中國，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)時(shí)期市場對社會(huì)的滲

透逐漸加深。本文進(jìn)一步認(rèn)為，在使用雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)來審視任何具有重要市場滲透的體系時(shí)，學(xué)者應(yīng)該認(rèn)

識到雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)的辯證過程。這種辯證的閱讀表明，雙向運(yùn)動(dòng)對社會(huì)具有破壞性，其內(nèi)部矛盾創(chuàng)造了進(jìn)

步和退步的可能性。本文探討了中國新農(nóng)村重建運(yùn)動(dòng)作為潛在的進(jìn)步可能性。

【原文】This article clarifies the use of Polanyian theory to interrogate rural China’s historical trajectory. It

critiques the use of Polanyi’s double movement concept to analyse state-socialist periods arguing that because

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the double movement concept was explicitly created to interrogate capitalist systems, in which land and labour

were marketized, it cannot be transposed onto state-socialist periods. This article further argues that as the

double movement necessarily entails the possibility of transcending a capitalist system to socialism, the double

movement’s explanatory power is further undermined when used within a state-socialist context. This includes

the context of Maoist China which this article explores. This article suggests using the vocabulary Polanyi

employs when discussing Soviet Russia to interrogate the Maoist period. However, it supports the use of

Polanyi’s double movement concept to interrogate post-1984 China as this period demonstrates increasing

market penetration of society. The article further argues that when using the double movement to interrogate

any system with significant market penetration scholars ought recognise the double movement’s dialectical

process. This dialectical reading suggests the double movement is destructive to society and its internal

contradiction creates progressive and regressive possibilities. This article explores the Chinese New Rural

Reconstruction Movement as a potential progressive possibility.

【編譯：朱嘉成】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

《沖突解決雜志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）

Journal of Conflict Resolution，Vol.67，No.10，2023

1. 北極沖擊：利用氣候變化檢驗(yàn)資源競爭理論（Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate

Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition）

Jonathan Markowitz，南加州大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)助理教授

《沖突解決雜志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）是一

份關(guān)于人類沖突的社會(huì)科學(xué)研究和理論的跨學(xué)科雜志。

該雜志主要關(guān)注國際沖突，但也探討了各種國家、群體

間和人際沖突。該期刊 2022 年的影響因子為 3.1，在國

際關(guān)系的 96 種期刊中排名第 19。

120

【摘要】為什么一些國家會(huì)動(dòng)用軍事力量來尋求對資源的控制，而另一些國家卻不會(huì)？傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，

資源稀缺的國家應(yīng)該最有興趣確保對資源的控制。本文認(rèn)為，在現(xiàn)有條件下，事實(shí)恰恰相反。不是資

源稀缺的國家對使用軍事手段尋求更多資源更感興趣，而是資源豐富并依賴開采這些資源獲得收入的

國家對此更感興趣。本文通過一個(gè)自然實(shí)驗(yàn)來驗(yàn)證這一反直覺的觀點(diǎn)，該實(shí)驗(yàn)分析了 2007 年北極地

區(qū)資源暴露后各國對外來沖擊的反應(yīng)。本文采用了原始數(shù)據(jù)來衡量沖擊前后各國在北極地區(qū)軍事存在

的變化并發(fā)現(xiàn)，是依賴性而非稀缺性解釋了各國如何應(yīng)對沖擊。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)加深了對資源競爭原因和氣

候變化的地緣政治影響的理解。

【原文】Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not?

Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing control

over resources. Counter-intuitively, I argue that, under existing conditions, the opposite is true. It is not

resource-scarce states that will be more interested in militarily seeking additional resources, but rather states

that are resource-abundant and dependent on income from extracting those resources. I test this proposition by

leveraging a natural experiment that analyzes how states reacted to an exogenous shock that exposed resources

in the Arctic in 2007. I employ original data that measures the change in states’ Arctic military presence before

and after the shock. I find that dependence, not scarcity, explains how states responded to the shock. The

findings enhance our understanding of the causes of resource competition and the geopolitical implications of

climate change.

2. 應(yīng)對不確定性：隱蔽性對支持網(wǎng)絡(luò)和動(dòng)能攻擊報(bào)復(fù)的重要性（Responding to

Uncertainty: The Importance of Covertness in Support for Retaliation to Cyber and

Kinetic Attacks）

Kathryn Hedgecock，紐約州西點(diǎn)軍校國際事務(wù)助理教授

Lauren Sukin，倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院菲蘭美國中心國際關(guān)系助理教授

【摘要】本文研究了網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊的升級動(dòng)態(tài)。有兩種主要理論試圖解釋網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊互動(dòng)狀態(tài)。首先，“基

于手段”理論認(rèn)為攻擊類型決定反應(yīng)；與動(dòng)能攻擊相比，網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊不太可能引發(fā)攻擊升級。第二，“基

于效果”理論認(rèn)為，攻擊的實(shí)質(zhì)性后果決定了報(bào)復(fù)的可能性。本文提出了第三種觀點(diǎn)，認(rèn)為攻擊的隱

蔽性對其升級傾向影響最大。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)隱蔽性的兩個(gè)特征會(huì)影響對報(bào)復(fù)手段的支持：歸因的確定性和

歸因的時(shí)機(jī)。本文使用調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)，同時(shí)改變攻擊的手段、效果、時(shí)機(jī)和歸因的確定性，來評估公眾對

報(bào)復(fù)的支持度，最終沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)基于效果的方法的證據(jù)，相反，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)無論攻擊的規(guī)模如何，公眾對

報(bào)復(fù)的支持率都很高。因此，攻擊的隱蔽性是影響報(bào)復(fù)支持率的最大因素。

【原文】This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been

advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to

escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences

determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack

has the largest effect on its propensity towards escalation. We identify two characteristics of covertness that

affect support for retaliation: the certainty of attribution and its timing. We use a survey experiment to assess

public support for retaliation, while varying the means, effects, timing, and attribution certainty of attacks. We

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find no evidence for the effects-based approach, instead finding high levels of support for retaliation regardless

of an attack’s scale. We find that the most significant contributor to support for retaliation is an attack’s

covertness.

3. 對經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁的破壞、物質(zhì)力量和制度支持（Sanctions-Busting, Material Power, and

Institutional Support for Economic Sanctions）

Jin Mun Jeong，密蘇里大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士

【摘要】國際機(jī)構(gòu)在制裁成功中發(fā)揮著關(guān)鍵作用。然而，人們對制裁方何時(shí)動(dòng)員機(jī)制性制裁以及如何

促使國際機(jī)構(gòu)支持其制裁努力知之甚少。當(dāng)制裁發(fā)起國預(yù)計(jì)第三方國家會(huì)參與破壞制裁時(shí)，發(fā)起國可

能需要機(jī)構(gòu)支持。本文提出，當(dāng)發(fā)起國面臨與對象國保持聯(lián)盟關(guān)系的第三方對手時(shí)，該國會(huì)預(yù)期制裁

遭到破壞，潛在的破壞制裁者的存在可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致其尋求機(jī)構(gòu)支持。此外，發(fā)起國應(yīng)擁有強(qiáng)大的物質(zhì)力

量，以促使國際機(jī)構(gòu)的成員國批準(zhǔn)制裁努力。本文分析了 1951-2005 年間的 1038 次制裁事件來評估

其理論主張。研究結(jié)果證明：當(dāng)制裁方面臨潛在的制裁破壞者時(shí)，他們會(huì)尋求機(jī)構(gòu)支持，而他們的努

力能否成功部分取決于他們的物質(zhì)力量。

【原文】International institutions play a key role in sanctions success. However, little is known about when

senders mobilize institutional sanctions and how they induce international institutions to support their

sanctioning efforts. Senders may need institutional support when they expect third-party states to engage in

sanctions-busting. I suggest that senders anticipate sanctions-busting when they face third-party rivals which

also have an alliance tie with targets. The presence of such potential sanctions busters may lead senders to

seek institutional support. Also, senders should possess substantial material power to induce member states of

international institutions to approve the sanctioning efforts. I assess the theoretical claim of this research by

analyzing 1,038 sanctions episodes over the period 1951–2005. The findings support my argument that senders

pursue institutional support when they face potential sanctions busters, and the success of their efforts partly

depend on their material power.

4. 自下而上的全球治理：地區(qū)制裁作為聯(lián)合國制裁的驅(qū)動(dòng)力（Global Governance

From Below: Regional Sanctions as Drivers of UN Sanctions）

Inken von Borzyskowski，牛津大學(xué)國際關(guān)系教授

Clara Portela，西班牙瓦倫西亞大學(xué)政治學(xué)講師

Sverrir Steinsson，喬治華盛頓大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系博士生

【摘要】眾所周知，聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)（UNSC）實(shí)施制裁是有選擇性的。許多危機(jī)因危及和平與安全而

符合聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)制裁的條件，但聯(lián)合國只對少數(shù)危機(jī)實(shí)施了制裁。聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)制裁的選擇性通常

被解釋為沖突的激烈程度或安理會(huì)常任理事國的利益主導(dǎo)。本文提出了第三種補(bǔ)充性解釋：地區(qū)組織

預(yù)先存在的制裁。本文認(rèn)為，聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)有動(dòng)機(jī)制裁已經(jīng)受到地區(qū)組織制裁的國家，因?yàn)榈貐^(qū)制裁

體現(xiàn)了周邊國家對這些制裁合法性的共識，并使安理會(huì)對制裁的實(shí)施感到放心。本文通過對原始數(shù)據(jù)

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的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、文本分析、案例研究和訪談，得出以下論點(diǎn)：地區(qū)制裁，特別是周邊國家組成的地區(qū)組

織頒布的制裁增加了聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)通過制裁的可能性。本研究推動(dòng)了有關(guān)制裁、沖突解決和政權(quán)復(fù)雜

性的研究。

【原文】The imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council (UNSC) is notoriously selective. Many

crises have qualified for UNSC sanctions by endangering peace and security, yet the UN has imposed sanctions

in only a few. Selectivity in UNSC sanctions is conventionally explained by conflict intensity or the interests

of the Council’s permanent members. Complementing these accounts, we document a third explanation: preexisting sanctions by regional organizations. We argue that the UNSC has incentives to sanction countries

which are already under sanctions by regional organizations because regional sanctions embody neighborhood

consensus on the legitimacy of these sanctions and reassure the Council about implementation. Statistical

analyses of original data, text analyses, a case study, and interviews strongly support our argument: regional

sanctions increase the likelihood of UNSC sanctions adoption, particularly when these are enacted by regional

organizations composed of neighboring states. This study advances research on sanctions, conflict resolution,

and regime complexity.

5. 聯(lián)合國安理會(huì)選舉作為決議遵從的激勵(lì)（UN Security Council Elections as an

Incentive for Compliance）

Johann Caro-Burnett，廣島大學(xué)人文與社會(huì)科學(xué)研究生院助理教授

Eric Weese，東京大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究所助理教授

【摘要】標(biāo)準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論認(rèn)為，聯(lián)合國對其成員國提出的高成本要求應(yīng)該得到回報(bào)。換言之，如果獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)

沒有足夠的吸引力，各國就不會(huì)遵守這些要求。本文研究了聯(lián)合國提供的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)是否是安理會(huì)席位。本

文提出的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)表明，要承擔(dān)安理會(huì)決議更高要求的國家更有可能當(dāng)選。此外，盡管各國在當(dāng)選前

會(huì)遵守決議，但當(dāng)選后遵守決議的情況會(huì)減少。最后，本文表明，最近未進(jìn)入安全理事會(huì)并因此即將

當(dāng)選的國家會(huì)被提出更多要求。

【原文】Standard economic theory would predict that costly demands placed by the United Nations on its

members should be rewarded. Similarly, when rewards are not attractive enough, countries are not expected

to comply with such demands. In this paper, we study whether the rewards offered by the United Nations are

seats at the Security Council. We show empirically that countries that have greater demands placed upon them

by Security Council resolutions are more likely to be elected. Furthermore, although countries comply with

resolutions leading up to their election, compliance decreases after they are elected. Finally, we show that

countries that have not been in the Security Council recently, and thus are due for election, have additional

requests made of them.

6. 論促進(jìn)和平（Contributing to Peace）

Gautam Bose，新南威爾士大學(xué)商學(xué)院助理教授

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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【摘要】競爭理論分析了行為體將資源用于消費(fèi)或占有性沖突的無政府經(jīng)濟(jì)行為，并探討了在均衡狀

態(tài)下和平或沖突占上風(fēng)的條件。歷史表明，在這種情況下，國王、獨(dú)裁者或國家等維持和平者會(huì)內(nèi)生

地出現(xiàn)。本文分析了一個(gè)模型，在這個(gè)模型中，每個(gè)潛在的競爭者首先可以選擇向中立的和平維持者

提供一些資源，然后在剩余資源中調(diào)配武器和消費(fèi)品。如果其中一個(gè)競爭者隨后攻擊了另一個(gè)競爭者，

那么和平維持者就會(huì)把自己的資源與被攻擊者的資源結(jié)合起來。本文的研究表明，在資源分配不平等

程度減輕的情況下，對維持和平的貢獻(xiàn)是積極的，并且會(huì)帶來均衡的和平。除了在很小的范圍內(nèi)，這

些均衡比純粹“塔洛克競賽”的相應(yīng)均衡帕累托更優(yōu)。當(dāng)分配過于不均時(shí)，就不會(huì)有任何貢獻(xiàn)，沖突

就會(huì)在均衡狀態(tài)下發(fā)生。

【原文】Contest theory analyses an anarchic economy where agents use resources for consumption or

acquisitive conflict, and explores conditions under which peace or conflict prevail in equilibrium. History

suggests that peacekeepers in the shape of kings, dictators or states arise endogenously in such circumstances.

I analyse a model where each of the potential contestants first has the option of contributing some resources

to a neutral peacekeeper, and then allocates her remaining resources between arms and consumption. If one of

the contestants subsequently attacks the other, then the peacekeeper joins its resources with the agent that is

attacked. I show that, for less unequal resource distributions, contribution to peacekeeping is positive and leads

to peace in equilibrium. These equilibria are pareto-superior to the corresponding equilibria of the pure Tullock

contest except in a narrow range. When the distribution is too unequal, no contributions are made and conflict

occurs in equilibrium.

7. 象征性沖突解決與群體內(nèi)偏向（Symbolic Conflict Resolution and Ingroup

Favoritism）

Sergi Martínez，普林斯頓大學(xué)和平與正義中心博士

Vicente Valentim，牛津大學(xué)納菲爾德學(xué)院政治學(xué)博士后

Elias Dinas，意大利歐洲大學(xué)學(xué)院政治與社會(huì)科學(xué)系教授

【摘要】象征性沖突解決方式對國內(nèi)有何影響？本文通過研究一個(gè)沒有物質(zhì)利害關(guān)系（對一方而言）

但具有高度象征意義的爭端來孤立象征性沖突的影響：《普雷斯帕協(xié)議》，即結(jié)束了關(guān)于前南馬其頓

（后被命名為北馬其頓）名稱的爭端。希臘人反對這個(gè)名稱，因?yàn)楣篷R其頓遺產(chǎn)是他們民族認(rèn)同的核

心。根據(jù)社會(huì)認(rèn)同理論，本文預(yù)計(jì)這種對群體獨(dú)特性的威脅會(huì)增加民族主義情緒。本文利用雅典和塞

薩洛尼基建筑物外墻展示旗幟的原始數(shù)據(jù)集（并將其與里斯本進(jìn)行了比較），發(fā)現(xiàn)協(xié)議簽署后希臘城

市的國旗數(shù)量有所增加。在希臘馬其頓大區(qū)的首府塞薩洛尼基，這種效應(yīng)更為明顯，因?yàn)槟抢锏纳矸?/p>

威脅更為突出。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)，該條約使選民，尤其是居住在馬其頓地區(qū)的選民右翼化。

【原文】What are the domestic consequences of symbolic conflict resolution? We isolate the effect of

symbolic conflict by looking into a dispute with no material stakes (for one side), but high symbolic ones: the

Prespa Agreement, which ended the dispute on the name of FYROM, thenceforth named North Macedonia.

Greeks opposed this name because the ancient Macedonian heritage is central to their national identity. Based

on social identity theory, we expect this threat to the group’s distinctiveness to increase nationalist sentiment.

Using an original dataset of flags displayed in the fa?ade of buildings in Athens and Thessaloniki, which we

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compare to Lisbon, we find an increase in national flags in the Greek cities after the Agreement. The effect is

stronger in Thessaloniki, Greek Macedonia’s capital, where the identity threat was more pronounced. We

also find that the treaty shifted voters to the right, especially those residing in the region of Macedonia.

8. 過度武力還是裝甲克制？內(nèi)戰(zhàn)中的政府機(jī)械化與平民傷亡（Excessive Force or

Armored Restraint? Government Mechanization and Civilian Casualties in Civil

Conflict）

Ryan Van Wie，西點(diǎn)軍校國際事務(wù)教官

Jacob Walden，密歇根大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士

【摘要】政府平叛過程中機(jī)械化程度的提高是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致更高水平的平民意外傷亡？有關(guān)近期沖突中平

民意外傷亡的現(xiàn)有研究主要集中在空襲方面，但有關(guān)地面部隊(duì)反叛亂力量結(jié)構(gòu)的研究仍未涉及這一問

題。然而，伊拉克的許多反叛亂實(shí)踐者都提到了機(jī)械化部隊(duì)在提供精確火力以限制平民傷亡方面的有

效性。本文提出了裝甲克制理論，認(rèn)為機(jī)械化部隊(duì)的裝甲保護(hù)增強(qiáng)了士兵在做出使用致命武力的相應(yīng)

選擇時(shí)的決策空間。當(dāng)這種增強(qiáng)的決策空間與系統(tǒng)地遵守戰(zhàn)時(shí)法原則和非戰(zhàn)斗人員豁免權(quán)規(guī)范的部隊(duì)

相結(jié)合時(shí)，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生裝甲克制，從而減少國內(nèi)沖突中由政府造成的平民傷亡。本文利用伊拉克的微觀

數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)了這一理論，發(fā)現(xiàn)機(jī)械化部隊(duì)帶來的平民傷亡水平明顯較低。

【原文】Does increasing counterinsurgent mechanization result in higher levels of unintentional civilian

casualties? Existing research on unintentional civilian victimization in recent conflicts has focused on air

strikes, but this question remains unexplored in research examining counterinsurgent force structure for ground

units. However, a host of counterinsurgency practitioners in Iraq have cited the mechanized forces’

effectiveness in delivering precision fires that limit civilian casualties. We propose an armored restraint theory,

suggesting that mechanized crews’ armored protection enhances soldiers’ decision space when making the

consequential choice to employ lethal force. When this enhanced decision space is combined with units that

systematically respect jus in bello principles and non-combatant immunity norms, it results in armored restraint,

which may reduce government-caused civilian casualties in civil conflicts. We test this theory using microdata from Iraq and find mechanized units are associated with significantly lower civilian casualty levels

compared to dismounted units.

【編譯：楊佳霖】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

Journal of Conflict Resolution，Vol.60，No.4，July 2023

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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1. 國際直接投資對國內(nèi)恐怖主義的雙刃劍作用（The Double-Edged Sword of Foreign

Direct Investment on Domestic Terrorism）

Glen Biglaiser，北德克薩斯大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

Lance Y Hunter，奧古斯塔大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)系教授

Ronald J McGauvran，田納西理工大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)與政治科學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】本文研究了國際直接投資（FDI）對國內(nèi)恐怖主義的影響。通過對 114 個(gè)國家，從 1991 至

2017 年跨國的時(shí)間序列分析，并運(yùn)用了結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型對一些中介因素進(jìn)行測試，本文發(fā)現(xiàn) FDI 對國

內(nèi)恐怖主義的影響取決于東道國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平。對于高收入水平的東道國來說，F(xiàn)DI 增進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)

展和全球一體化，同時(shí)促進(jìn)繁榮，增加反恐資源，并減少了助長恐怖主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)不滿。相反，對低收

入水平的東道國來說，F(xiàn)DI 的增加助長了國內(nèi)恐怖主義，因?yàn)樗觿×松鐣?huì)中傳統(tǒng)和現(xiàn)代因素之間的

沖突，引起經(jīng)濟(jì)歧視并增強(qiáng)了對經(jīng)濟(jì)不安全的看法，從而導(dǎo)致針對國家的不滿。本文的研究結(jié)果表明

FDI 的流入與國內(nèi)恐怖主義之間存在曲線關(guān)系，F(xiàn)DI 在促進(jìn)東道國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和增加國內(nèi)恐怖主義之間

會(huì)產(chǎn)生雙刃劍的效果。

【原文】This paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic terrorism. Using a crossnational, time-series analysis of 114 countries from 1991–2017, and employing structural equation modeling

to test a number of mediating factors, we find that the impact of FDI on domestic terrorism depends on the

host state’s level of economic development. For host countries at higher-income levels, FDI boosts economic

development and global integration promoting prosperity, increasing counterterrorism resources, and reducing

the economic grievances that foster terrorism. Conversely, for lower-income host countries, increased FDI

fuels higher domestic terrorism, as it intensifies clashes between traditional and modern elements within

society, raises economic discrimination, heightens perceptions of economic insecurity, and subsequently leads

to grievances directed against the state. Our results indicate a curvilinear relationship between FDI inflows

and domestic terrorism, suggesting that FDI produces a double-edged sword between promoting economic

development and increasing domestic terrorism in host states.

2. 有組織的犯罪與國際直接投資：來自墨西哥犯罪集團(tuán)的證據(jù)（Organized Crime and

Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence From Criminal Groups in Mexico）

Ana Carolina Garriga，埃塞克斯大學(xué)政治管理系教授

Brian J. Phillips，埃塞克斯大學(xué)政治管理系副教授、墨西哥城經(jīng)濟(jì)研究和文獻(xiàn)中心附屬教授

【摘要】發(fā)展中國家中有組織的犯罪如何影響國際直接投資（FDI）？一些研究考察了犯罪對 FDI 的

影響，如兇殺率。然而，學(xué)者對有組織的犯罪如何影響 FDI 卻知之甚少。本文研究了 2000 年至 2008

年墨西哥各州的有組織犯罪和 FDI 情況。該案例的重要性在于，墨西哥是全球最大的國際直接投資目

的地之一。同時(shí)，墨西哥近年來的犯罪暴力已造成數(shù)十萬人死亡，學(xué)者們也致力于了解暴力的廣泛影

響。本文認(rèn)為有組織的犯罪競爭，并非一般的犯罪，會(huì)影響投資者的決策。通過對關(guān)于犯罪組織區(qū)域

的原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，犯罪集團(tuán)數(shù)量較多與新的 FDI 水平較低有關(guān)。其他犯罪指標(biāo)，如兇殺率或

犯罪率，與外國投資無關(guān)。

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【原文】How does organized crime affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries? Some

research examines the effects of crime, such as homicide rates, on FDI. However, we know little about how

organized crime in particular might affect such investment. This paper examines organized crime and FDI in

Mexican states between 2000 and 2018. This case is important because Mexico is one of the top global

recipients of FDI. At the same time, criminal violence has killed hundreds of thousands of people in Mexico

in recent years, and scholars seek to understand the violence’s wider effects. We explain how organized crime

competition, as opposed to crime generally, should shape investors’ decisions. Analyses using original data

on criminal organization territory find that higher numbers of criminal groups are associated with lower levels

of new FDI. Other measures of crime, such as homicide rates or crime rates, are not associated with foreign

investment.

3. 社會(huì)嵌入與避免抗議：來自中國的證據(jù)（Social Embeddedness and Protest

Avoidance: Evidence from China）

莊梅茜，復(fù)旦大學(xué)國際關(guān)系與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院政治學(xué)系講師

王正緒，浙江大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院政治學(xué)系教授

栗瀟遠(yuǎn)，同濟(jì)大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】社會(huì)資本被普遍認(rèn)為有助于動(dòng)員抗議活動(dòng)。然而，本文研究的是社會(huì)資本是否及如何減少個(gè)

人加入抗議活動(dòng)的傾向。通過分析北京的流動(dòng)人口調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)社會(huì)資本在當(dāng)?shù)厣缃痪W(wǎng)絡(luò)更好

地嵌入，能降低參與抗議活動(dòng)的可能性。本文的理由是，從結(jié)構(gòu)上來講，嵌入當(dāng)?shù)鼐W(wǎng)絡(luò)提供了獲得支

持和援助的途徑，降低了通過破壞性手段解決問題的吸引力。從心理上講，這種嵌入減輕了相對剝奪

的感覺，減少了這種感覺不斷累積并最終轉(zhuǎn)化為抗議行為的可能性?；貧w和結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型證實(shí)了本文

的假設(shè)，同時(shí)還能夠運(yùn)用一個(gè)不同的、更大的跨國數(shù)據(jù)集來檢驗(yàn)本研究結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性。

【原文】Social capital is generally believed to facilitate protest mobilization. We examine, however, whether

and how it might reduce an individual’s tendency to join a protest. Analyzing survey data of a migrant

population in Beijing, China’s capital, we find that social capital operating as better embeddedness in local

social networks lowers the likelihood of protest participation. We reason that, structurally, embeddedness in

local networks provides access to support and assistance, reducing the attractiveness of disruptive means of

problem-solving. Psychologically, such embeddedness mitigates the feeling of relative deprivation, reducing

the possibility of such feelings accumulating and eventually translating into protesting actions. Regressions

and structural equation models confirm our hypotheses, and we are also able to check the robustness of our

findings with a different, much larger, cross-national dataset.

4. 多數(shù)成員的脫嵌式認(rèn)同：波蘭天主教徒的案例（Dis-Embedded Identity of Majority

Members: The Case of Catholics in Poland）

Julian Paffrath，基爾大學(xué)社會(huì)心理學(xué)與政治心理學(xué)系副研究員

Bernd Simon，基爾大學(xué)社會(huì)心理學(xué)與政治心理學(xué)系教授

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

127

【摘要】本文中我們關(guān)注了多數(shù)成員中認(rèn)同脫嵌的過程（與相關(guān)上級集體內(nèi)認(rèn)同相比，更強(qiáng)調(diào)及優(yōu)先

關(guān)注特定的次級集體內(nèi)認(rèn)同），并檢驗(yàn)了潛在的因果。為此，本文對波蘭天主教徒展開了調(diào)查研究。

我們假設(shè)相較于社會(huì)對天主教徒的尊重，群體內(nèi)的尊重更有利于預(yù)測認(rèn)同脫嵌，尤其是在缺乏社會(huì)尊

重的條件下。我們進(jìn)一步假設(shè)了認(rèn)同脫嵌會(huì)導(dǎo)致積極追求霸權(quán)。這些假設(shè)主要基于霍內(nèi)斯的認(rèn)同理論

和特納的自我分類理論。采用縱向研究設(shè)計(jì)和潛在變量建模，我們獲得了對假設(shè)的支撐證據(jù)。并且討

論了對進(jìn)一步研究的影響，特別是對多元化社會(huì)中的群體間關(guān)系和政治的影響。

【原文】In this article, we focus on the process of dis-embedded identification (the accentuation and

prioritization of the identification with a particular subordinate ingroup relative to the identification with the

relevant superordinate ingroup) among majority members and examine possible antecedents and consequences.

To this end, we conducted research with Catholics in Poland. We hypothesized societal respect for Catholics

would negatively predict dis-embedded identification, whereas intragroup respect would positively predict

dis-embedded identification — especially under the condition of lacking societal respect. We further

hypothesized dis-embedded identification to positively predict the pursuit of hegemony. These hypotheses are

mainly based on Honneth's theory of recognition and Turner's self-categorization theory. Employing a

longitudinal research design and latent variable modeling, we obtained supporting evidence for our hypotheses.

The implications for further research, especially on intergroup relations and politics in pluralizing societies,

are discussed.

5. 包容，承認(rèn)和群體間的比較：權(quán)力共享制度對不滿的影響（Inclusion, Recognition,

and Inter-Group Comparisons: The Effects of Power-Sharing Institutions on

Grievances）

Andreas Juon，蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院國際沖突研究組博士后

【摘要】現(xiàn)有的證據(jù)表明權(quán)力共享能通過減輕少數(shù)族群的不滿來減少他們對國內(nèi)沖突的參與。然而，

權(quán)力共享應(yīng)如何以及多大程度上的制度化仍舊未明。此外，對申訴機(jī)制的直接態(tài)度證據(jù)也較少。針對

這些學(xué)術(shù)空白，本文認(rèn)為由憲法規(guī)定并明確承認(rèn)少數(shù)群體的全體的權(quán)力共享能有效緩解他們的不滿。

然而，同時(shí)也強(qiáng)調(diào)群體間比較的重要性。這意味著，與同一國家內(nèi)的“同輩”和跨國親屬人口相比，

全體的權(quán)力共享程度較低的少數(shù)族群應(yīng)有更高的不滿，無論其絕對程度如何。使用大量的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，

我在一系列分層多級模型中測試我的假設(shè)。通過強(qiáng)調(diào)制度設(shè)計(jì)的重要性，本文的研究結(jié)果對多種族社

會(huì)的政策以及更普遍的關(guān)于調(diào)和和不滿的學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)具有重大影響。

【原文】Extant evidence suggests that power-sharing reduces the participation of minorities in civil conflict

by alleviating their grievances. Yet, it remains unclear how and to what degree power-sharing should be

institutionalized. Moreover, direct attitudinal evidence for the grievance mechanism remains rare. Addressing

these gaps, I argue that corporate power-sharing which is constitutionally-enshrined and explicitly recognizes

minorities most strongly alleviates their grievances. However, it simultaneously accentuates the importance of

relative inter-group comparisons. This means that minorities with a lower relative degree of corporate powersharing than their 'peers' in the same country and transnational kin population should have higher grievances,

irrespective of its absolute level. Using an extensive combination of mass survey data, I test my expectations

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in a series of hierarchical multi-level models. By highlighting the importance of institutional design, my results

have significant implications for policy in multi-ethnic societies and for the scholarly literature on

accommodation and grievances more generally.

6. 叛亂集團(tuán)的招募：介紹反叛集團(tuán)的吸引力和激勵(lì)數(shù)據(jù)庫（Recruiting Rebels:

Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset）

Michael J. Soules，休斯頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)系助理教授、海軍研究生院國防分析系的唐納德·比爾國防研

究員

【摘要】現(xiàn)有大量的文獻(xiàn)研究反叛團(tuán)體如何招募平民。其中大部分的文獻(xiàn)主要關(guān)注物質(zhì)和意識形態(tài)的

吸引力對動(dòng)員新兵中的作用。然而，盡管對招募過程的重要性抱有預(yù)期，但目前缺乏關(guān)于許多跨部門

團(tuán)體有說服力的招募行為的數(shù)據(jù)，因此難以檢驗(yàn)關(guān)于反叛團(tuán)體招募的理論所產(chǎn)生的各種影響。為了填

補(bǔ)這一空白，本文開發(fā)了一項(xiàng)原始數(shù)據(jù)，即反叛分子的吸引力和激勵(lì)數(shù)據(jù)集（RAID），其中包含 1989

年至 2011 年間 232 個(gè)個(gè)武裝組織的信息。RAID 不僅詳細(xì)說明了反叛組織做出的不同類型的招募呼

吁，還詳細(xì)說明了他們在多大程度上依賴意識形態(tài)訴求（相對于物質(zhì)激勵(lì)）進(jìn)行招募。為了證明數(shù)據(jù)

集的價(jià)值，本文使用 RAID 來測試從現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)中得出的關(guān)于叛軍招募和戰(zhàn)時(shí)強(qiáng)奸的兩個(gè)假設(shè)。

【原文】There is an extensive body of literature examining how rebel groups recruit civilians. Much of this

scholarly work focuses on the role of material and ideological appeals in mobilizing recruits. However, despite

expectations about the importance of recruitment processes, there is currently a lack of data on the persuasive

recruitment practices of a large cross-section of groups, making it difficult to test a variety of implications

stemming from theories about armed group recruitment. To remedy this, I developed original data—the Rebel

Appeals and Incentives Dataset (RAID)—which contains information on 232 militant groups for the period

1989 to 2011. RAID details not only the specific types of recruitment appeals groups make, but the degree to

which they rely on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment. To demonstrate the

value of the dataset, I employ RAID to test two hypotheses about rebel recruitment and wartime rape derived

from existing literature.

【編譯：朱嘉成】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

129

《歐洲國際關(guān)系雜志》 （ European Journal of International

Relations）

European Journal of International Relations，Vol.29，No.4，2023

1. 在國際關(guān)系中實(shí)現(xiàn)認(rèn)識論正義：婦女與國際思想史（Doing epistemic justice in

International Relations: women and the history of international thought）

Kimberly Hutchings，倫敦瑪麗女王大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院教授

【摘要】本文通過對范尼·弗恩·安德魯斯（Fannie Fern Andrews）和艾米·阿什伍德·加維（Amy

Ashwood Garvey）國際思想的回顧，以及與女性主義認(rèn)識論的對話，探討了在國際關(guān)系研究中實(shí)現(xiàn)認(rèn)

識論正義的意義和含義。該文章認(rèn)為，實(shí)現(xiàn)認(rèn)識論上的正義需要超越對被排斥聲音的恢復(fù)性正義，即

糾正歷史記錄；包容正義，即在學(xué)科對話中加入以前被排斥的聲音；變革正義，即邊緣化和被壓迫者

的觀點(diǎn)成為認(rèn)識論權(quán)威和新知識的來源。在所有這些正義之上，認(rèn)識論正義要求實(shí)踐一種特殊的認(rèn)識

論集體責(zé)任，它積極地、反思性地認(rèn)識到并參與到當(dāng)時(shí)和現(xiàn)在的國際思想生產(chǎn)中知識者、世界和受眾

之間的權(quán)力關(guān)系。

【原文】This article examines the meaning and implications of doing epistemic justice in the study of

International Relations through the prism of the recovery of the international thought of Fannie Fern Andrews

and Amy Ashwood Garvey and in dialogue with feminist epistemology. It argues that doing epistemic justice

involves going beyond restorative justice for excluded voices in which the historical record is set straight,

inclusionary justice in which previously excluded voices are added to disciplinary conversations, and

transformative justice, in which the perspectives of the marginalised and oppressed become sources of

epistemic authority and new knowledge. Over and above all of these things, doing epistemic justice entails

practising a particular kind of epistemic collective responsibility, which actively and reflexively recognises

and engages with power-laden relations between knowers, worlds and audiences in the production of

international thought, then and now.

《歐洲國際關(guān)系雜志》（European Journal of International

Relations）廣泛地代表了已在歐洲發(fā)展的國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域。

自 1995 年創(chuàng)刊以來，該雜志已成為國際關(guān)系學(xué)界一個(gè)重

要而獨(dú)立的聲音。它以其歐洲起源為基礎(chǔ)，經(jīng)過二十多年

的發(fā)展，已成為國際關(guān)系界最佳成果的縮影，包括前沿的

理論辯論、當(dāng)代和過去的學(xué)術(shù)熱點(diǎn)以及理論豐富的實(shí)證分

析。

130

2. 關(guān)于真相的問題：事實(shí)、空間和時(shí)間如何影響國際關(guān)系對話（The question of truth: how

facts, space and time shape conversations in IR）

Bernardo Teles Fazendeiro，科英布拉大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】在國際關(guān)系（IR）中，真理經(jīng)常被引用，也經(jīng)常受到質(zhì)疑。由于多元化的增加，真理不再被

認(rèn)為是理所當(dāng)然的，一些人認(rèn)為相對主義即將來臨。與此同時(shí)，盡管真理的含義并不確定，但研究和

事實(shí)驗(yàn)證卻依然存在，因?yàn)檠芯拷Y(jié)果在國際關(guān)系中仍有激烈的爭論，有時(shí)會(huì)導(dǎo)致學(xué)者之間根深蒂固、

幾乎不可調(diào)和的爭論。本文認(rèn)為，面對潛在的相對主義，彌合真理主張的一種方法是區(qū)分意義性的真

理和事實(shí)性的真理。事實(shí)性真理用來評估（原始）數(shù)據(jù)是否有資格作為數(shù)據(jù)，而意義性真理——大多

數(shù) IR 辯論所依據(jù)的真理——是作者解釋的基礎(chǔ)；它根據(jù)特定的空間和時(shí)間概念揭示了現(xiàn)實(shí)的各個(gè)方

面。將 IR 政策對話視為意義性真理而事實(shí)性真相，可以讓學(xué)者們不再堅(jiān)持相對主義。文章還指出，

將意義性與事實(shí)驗(yàn)證相混淆的對話——如 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代自由制度主義者與結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者之間的

爭論——會(huì)導(dǎo)致學(xué)術(shù)固化，無法解決問題。不同的時(shí)空假設(shè)往往互不相容。因此，這種有意義的對話

與其說是關(guān)于事實(shí)的可驗(yàn)證性，不如說是關(guān)于遏制物化和擴(kuò)大政治判斷的視角。

【原文】Truth is as regularly invoked in International Relations (IR) as it is contested. Due to increased

plurality, truth is no longer taken for granted, with some suggesting that relativism is on its way. At the same

time, despite uncertainty as to the meaning of truth, research and factual verification persists, as findings

remain hotly debated in IR, sometimes leading to entrenched, almost irreconcilable debates among scholars.

This essay suggests that one way in which to bridge truth claims in the face of potential, albeit unwarranted,

relativism is to distinguish between meaningful and factual truth. Factual truth is about assessing whether (raw)

data qualifies as data at all, while meaningful truth – upon which most debates in IR are based – grounds our

interpretation; it reveals reality’s various facets according to specific spatial and temporal concepts. Viewing

conversations in IR as concerned with meaningful as opposed to factual truth allows scholars to lay relativism

to rest. The essay also claims that conversations that confuse meaningfulness for factual verification – as in

the debates between liberal institutionalists and structural realists in the 1990s – lead to scholarly entrenchment

with no resolution in sight. Distinct temporal and spatial assumptions are often incompatible. As a result, such

meaningful conversations are less about factual verifiability than about containing reification and enlarging

the perspectives with which to exercise political judgement.

3. 國際關(guān)系中的抽象：論批判性知識生產(chǎn)中跨性別者、同性戀者和屬下群體的神秘化

（Abstractions in International Relations: on the mystification of trans, queer, and

subaltern life in critical knowledge production）

Alexander Stoffel，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院方法論系研究員

Ida Roland Birkvad，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院

【摘要】本文指出了當(dāng)今學(xué)術(shù)知識生產(chǎn)中常見的神秘化過程：將從屬群體僅僅作為學(xué)術(shù)理論化的隱喻

或修辭對象。當(dāng)學(xué)者們問及跨性別群體在跨國性方面能給作者帶來什么啟示時(shí)，當(dāng)作者被邀請反思現(xiàn)

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

131

代戰(zhàn)爭中可能存在的同性戀問題時(shí)，或者當(dāng)民族國家被描述為次級民族國家時(shí)，作者都會(huì)目睹這一過

程。在關(guān)于“傳統(tǒng)”國際關(guān)系的國家治理、移民、安全等問題的學(xué)術(shù)研究中，跨性別者、同性戀者和

屬下群體經(jīng)常被神秘化。這種傾向使學(xué)者們無法研究塑造和組織他們的生活和歷史的社會(huì)關(guān)系，從而

起到了神秘化的作用。本文分為三個(gè)部分。首先，為了理解這一自我神秘化過程的起源和邏輯，本文

通過斯圖爾特·霍爾（Stuart Hall）回到了卡爾·馬克思關(guān)于抽象的方法論著作。本文區(qū)分了抽象的迷

信化和抽象的具體化，從而為當(dāng)代國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)界正式確立馬克思的方法論做出了貢獻(xiàn)。其次，本文

探討了抽象化的主體地位是如何在國際研究的三個(gè)領(lǐng)域中被盲目迷信化的：跨性別研究、酷兒理論和

屬下研究。第三，在闡述了對這種神秘化做法的批判之后，本文概述了替代方法，即通過關(guān)注其具體

的歷史和社會(huì)決定因素，尋求將同性戀、跨性別和屬下的抽象概念具體化。作者認(rèn)為，這些去神秘化

的策略弘揚(yáng)了批判理論的基本承諾，而這一承諾在當(dāng)今的學(xué)術(shù)知識生產(chǎn)中常常被拋棄。

【原文】This paper identifies a common process of mystification within academic knowledge production

today: the treatment of subordinated groups as mere metaphors or rhetorical figures for academic theorizing.

We witness it when academics ask what trans might teach us about transnationality, when we are invited to

reflect on what might be queer about modern warfare, or when nation-states are described as subaltern. Trans,

queer, and subaltern populations are routinely fetishized within scholarship on the “traditional” International

Relations concerns of statecraft, migration, security, and so on. This tendency serves a mystifying function by

disabling scholars from examining the social relations that shape and organize their lives and histories. This

paper proceeds in three parts. First, to understand the origins and logics of this self-mystifying process, this

paper returns, via Stuart Hall, to Karl Marx’s methodological writings on abstraction. It contributes to the

formalization of his methodology for contemporary IR scholarship by drawing a distinction between the

fetishization of abstraction and the concretization of abstraction. Second, the paper explores how abstracted

subject positions have been fetishized within three fields of international studies: trans studies, queer theory,

and subaltern studies. Third, after elaborating a critique of this mystifying move, the paper outlines alternative

approaches that instead seek to concretize the abstractions queer, trans, and subaltern by attending to their

specific historical and social determinations. These strategies of demystification, we argue, carry forward a

founding commitment of critical theory that is all too often abandoned within scholarly knowledge production

today.

4. 治理流行病疲勞：國際關(guān)系中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)生物政治學(xué)案例（Governing pandemic fatigue:

an International Relations case of experiential biopolitics）

Nicolas G?ckle，荷蘭格羅寧根大學(xué)文學(xué)部博士生

【摘要】Covid-19 大流行表明，要在曠日持久的全球生物政治緊急狀況中生存，就需要新的理論反思，

以理解在全球背景下治理生命的意義。作為國際關(guān)系（IR）中全球健康研究的核心參考，生物政治方

法將對生命的分子信息理解作為其治理對象。然而，全球大流行病疲勞現(xiàn)象需要一種新的問題分析。

因此，經(jīng)驗(yàn)生物政治學(xué)的概念被提出，作為認(rèn)識生物政治應(yīng)急治理局限性的一種方法，而這種局限性

已導(dǎo)致受長期應(yīng)急措施影響的人群普遍感到疲憊。這種重新制定的生物政治視角不僅將人的生命理解

為一種生物物質(zhì)，而且通過其反思能力來孕育生活經(jīng)驗(yàn)，強(qiáng)調(diào)了大流行病經(jīng)驗(yàn)與感染動(dòng)態(tài)之間的糾葛。

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文章通過世衛(wèi)組織對大流行病疲勞的問題化探討了經(jīng)驗(yàn)生物政治學(xué)。文章分析了如何通過行為洞察研

究來評估大流行病的經(jīng)歷，從而將生物和經(jīng)歷變量結(jié)合起來，實(shí)現(xiàn)對大流行病事件的反思性認(rèn)識。隨

后，它對作為將大流行病主體想象為一種基本經(jīng)驗(yàn)存在的基石的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知理論提出了質(zhì)疑。

【原文】The Covid-19 pandemic has made evident that living through a protracted global biopolitical

emergency requires new theoretical reflections to make sense of what it means to govern life in a global context.

As a central reference in the study of global health in International Relations (IR), biopolitical approaches have

privileged a molecular-informational understanding of life as their object of governance. However, the

phenomenon of global pandemic fatigue calls for a new problematisation. Experiential biopolitics is proposed

here as an approach from which to recognise a limitation of biopolitical emergency governance that has

resulted in a generalised feeling of exhaustion among populations subject to prolonged emergency measures.

This reformulated biopolitical gaze understands human life, not only as a biological substance, but through its

reflexive capacity to nurture lived experience, highlighting the entanglement of pandemic experiences and

infection dynamics. The article explores experiential biopolitics through the WHO’s problematisation of

pandemic fatigue. It analyses how assessing pandemic experience through behavioural insights studies enables

a reflexive visibility of the pandemic event by drawing together biological and experiential variables.

Subsequently, it interrogates theories of risk perception as a cornerstone in imagining the pandemic subject as

a fundamentally experiential being.

5. 反叛者、自衛(wèi)警員和特立獨(dú)行者：全球衛(wèi)生治理中的異端行為者（Rebels, vigilantes

and mavericks: heterodox actors in global health governance）

Stefan Elbe，英國蘇塞克斯大學(xué)全球研究學(xué)院國際關(guān)系系教授

Dagmar Vorlí?ek，奧地利維也納大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)研究所博士生

David Brenner 英國蘇塞克斯大學(xué)全球研究學(xué)院國際關(guān)系系高級講師

【摘要】COVID-19 大流行暴露出了深刻的治理挑戰(zhàn)，這就要求在全球衛(wèi)生治理方面采取更加多樣化

和創(chuàng)造性的方法。本文通過強(qiáng)調(diào)異端行為者在大流行病期間發(fā)揮的重要作用，致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)該領(lǐng)域的多

元化。異端全球衛(wèi)生行動(dòng)者是有背景的行動(dòng)者，他們改善了世界不同地區(qū)的衛(wèi)生狀況，但在政治上仍

被邊緣化，在認(rèn)識論上也被隱蔽化，因?yàn)樗麄冊陉P(guān)鍵方面背離了全球衛(wèi)生治理領(lǐng)域盛行的自由主義正

統(tǒng)觀念。這篇文章通過結(jié)構(gòu)倒置——一種以后殖民研究、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施研究和科技研究的最新方法論見解

為基礎(chǔ)的全球衛(wèi)生治理研究關(guān)系方法，突出了這些異端行為者的作用。然后，文章利用這種方法對三

種不同的異端行為者的 COVID-19 活動(dòng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證調(diào)查：在緬甸邊境地區(qū)提供公共衛(wèi)生服務(wù)的反叛

團(tuán)體、在捷克共和國縫制口罩的婦女治安維持會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng)，以及一個(gè)特立獨(dú)行的病毒序列數(shù)據(jù)國際共享科

學(xué)平臺。這種結(jié)構(gòu)上的倒置開始放寬自由主義認(rèn)識論在全球衛(wèi)生治理實(shí)踐和研究中的主導(dǎo)地位。它進(jìn)

一步揭示了這一領(lǐng)域是如何通過許多此類異端行為者的背景活動(dòng)不斷共同產(chǎn)生的。它還為全球衛(wèi)生治

理——也可以說是更廣泛的全球治理——的未來研究議程奠定了概念基礎(chǔ)，以應(yīng)對 COVID-19 揭示

的眾多尚未解決的挑戰(zhàn)。

【原文】COVID-19 has exposed profound governance challenges that demand more diverse and creative

approaches to global health governance moving forward. This article works towards such a pluralization of

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the field by foregrounding the vital role played by heterodox actors during the pandemic. Heterodox global

health actors are backgrounded actors who improve health in different parts of the world, but who remain

politically marginalized – and epistemically invisibilized – because they depart in crucial respects from

the liberal orthodoxy pervading the field of global health governance. The article analytically foregrounds

those heterodox actors through an architectural inversion – a relational approach to the study of global health

governance that builds upon recent methodological insights from postcolonial studies, infrastructure studies,

and science and technology studies. The article then harnesses that methodological approach to empirically

investigate the COVID-19 activities of three different heterodox actors: rebel groups providing public health

in the borderlands of Myanmar, a women’s vigilante movement stitching face masks in the Czech Republic,

and a maverick scientific platform for the international sharing of viral sequence data. Performing that

architectural inversion begins to loosen the dominance of the liberal episteme within the practice and study of

global health governance. It further visibilizes how that field is continually co-produced by the background

activities of many such heterodox actors. It also lays conceptual foundations for a more heterodox future

research agenda on global health governance – and arguably global governance more broadly – in

response to the numerous unresolved challenges revealed by COVID-19.

6. 多變的組織邊界和聯(lián)系國：在國際組織中引入成員制（Porous organizational

boundaries and associated states: introducing memberness in international

organizations）

Stephanie Hofmann，歐洲大學(xué)研究所政治與社會(huì)科學(xué)系教授，羅伯特-舒曼高級研究中心

Anamarija Andreska、Erna Burai、Juanita Uribe，日內(nèi)瓦研究生院國際關(guān)系/政治科學(xué)博士生

【摘要】目前對國際組織（IOs），尤其是地區(qū)組織（ROs）成員資格的二元理解，造成了學(xué)界對誰在

國際組織中發(fā)揮重要作用，以及為什么和如何發(fā)揮重要作用的理解上的盲點(diǎn)和偏差?，F(xiàn)有的學(xué)術(shù)研究

主要著眼于正式成員國或非國家行為者，以了解誰對這些組織有影響。聯(lián)系國往往被描繪成國際組織

規(guī)則的被動(dòng)接受者，而非積極貢獻(xiàn)者。作者通過探討存在哪些類型的聯(lián)系關(guān)系以及它們?nèi)绾斡绊憞H

組織，來解決這一盲點(diǎn)和由此產(chǎn)生的分析偏差。作者提出了一種新的成員概念，作者稱之為“成員性”。

在國際組織層面，成員性基于組織邊界的相對開放性以及通過物質(zhì)和意識形態(tài)貢獻(xiàn)的分層準(zhǔn)入。在國

家層面上，成員資格反映了相關(guān)國家在物質(zhì)和/或意識形態(tài)上對國際組織做出貢獻(xiàn)的個(gè)人選擇。對成員

資格的理解不再純粹基于權(quán)利（或你在國際組織中是誰），而是包括基于能力的理解（或你在國際組

織中做什么）。這種關(guān)注點(diǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)移發(fā)現(xiàn)了影響國際組織的新渠道。聯(lián)系國在物質(zhì)和意識形態(tài)上對國際

組織的貢獻(xiàn)構(gòu)成了三種成員身份類型：出資人、贊助人和顧問。作者認(rèn)為，這些成員身份類型以以前

未曾認(rèn)識到的方式影響著國際組織的活力、設(shè)計(jì)和績效。作者通過全球各地區(qū)域組織的經(jīng)驗(yàn)實(shí)例來說

明這些類型，并討論成員身份對國際組織研究項(xiàng)目的影響。

【原文】The current binary understanding of membership in international organizations (IOs), especially

regional organizations (ROs), creates blind spots and biases in our understanding of who matters in IOs, as

well as why and how they matter. Existing scholarship primarily looks at full member-states or non-state actors

to capture who influences such organizations. Associated states are often portrayed as passive receivers of IO

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rules instead of active contributors. We address this blind spot and resulting analytical bias by exploring what

types of association relationships exist and how they impact IOs. We propose a novel conceptualization of

membership that we call memberness. On the level of IOs, memberness is based on the relative openness of

organizational boundaries and stratified access via material and ideational contributions. On the level of states,

memberness captures associated states’ individual choices to contribute materially and/or ideationally to an

IO. Memberness moves away from a purely rights-based understanding of membership (or who you are in an

IO) to include a capacity-based understanding (or what you do in an IO). This shift in focus uncovers new

channels of influence on IOs. Associated states’ material and ideational contributions to IOs constitute three

memberness types: payroller, sponsor, and advisor. We argue that these memberness types impact IOs’ vitality,

design, and performance in previously unrecognized ways. We illustrate these types with empirical examples

from ROs across the globe and discuss the implications of memberness for IO research programs.

7. 非正式機(jī)構(gòu)的動(dòng)態(tài)與反霸權(quán)：引入金磚國家趨同指數(shù)（The dynamics of informal

institutions and counter-hegemony: introducing a BRICS Convergence Index）

Mihaela Papa，美國塔夫茨大學(xué)全球事務(wù)研究生院高級研究員

Zhen Han，美國塔夫茨大學(xué)弗萊徹法律與外交學(xué)院學(xué)院博士后學(xué)者，美國圣心大學(xué)政治學(xué)與全球事

務(wù)系助理教授

Frank O’Donnell，美國塔夫茨大學(xué)弗萊徹法律與外交學(xué)院博士后學(xué)者，史汀生中心南亞項(xiàng)目的非常

駐研究員

【摘要】非正式機(jī)構(gòu)是重新談判全球治理的重要平臺，但在它們?nèi)绾芜\(yùn)作和挑戰(zhàn)美國（US）的問題上

存在分歧?，F(xiàn)實(shí)主義者將巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非（金磚國家）等一些非正式機(jī)構(gòu)視為反霸

權(quán)實(shí)體，而理性制度主義者則關(guān)注它們的結(jié)構(gòu)和在特定領(lǐng)域的表現(xiàn)。然而，這兩種方法都無法解釋使

這些機(jī)構(gòu)強(qiáng)大并具有潛在反霸權(quán)作用的內(nèi)部動(dòng)力。為了填補(bǔ)這一空白，作者首先開發(fā)了一種分析非正

式制度動(dòng)態(tài)的新趨同方法，然后運(yùn)用這種方法研究金磚國家的穩(wěn)健性和金磚國家與美國的關(guān)系。作者

的 \"金磚國家趨同指數(shù) \"利用 2009 年至 2021 年間金磚國家在 47 個(gè)政策問題上合作的新數(shù)據(jù)集

來衡量金磚國家的政策趨同性。利用美國在相同問題上的政策偏好數(shù)據(jù)，作者還確定了金磚國家與美

國競爭的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)。作者發(fā)現(xiàn)，在廣泛的政策問題上，金磚國家的政策趨同性總體增強(qiáng)，與美國政策偏

好的分歧有限。然而，由于金磚國家在 2015 年后參與了更多的安全問題，并實(shí)質(zhì)性地深化了合作，

其對抗美國影響的能力也隨之增強(qiáng)。作者對非正式機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行的以趨同為重點(diǎn)的分析，包含了成員的機(jī)

構(gòu)和機(jī)構(gòu)建設(shè)的途徑，同時(shí)明確了約束對手國家的問題。因此，它有助于解釋非正式機(jī)構(gòu)如何獲得穩(wěn)

健性，并為新興大國的崛起和全球治理改革努力提供經(jīng)驗(yàn)性見解。

【原文】Informal institutions are important platforms for renegotiating global governance, but there is

disagreement on how they operate and challenge the United States (US). Realists view some informal

institutions like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) as counter-hegemonic entities, while

rational institutionalists focus on their structure and performance in specific areas. However, neither approach

explains the internal dynamics that make these institutions robust and potentially counter-hegemonic. To fill

this gap, we first develop a new convergence approach for analysing informal institutional dynamics, and then

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we apply this approach to examine BRICS robustness and BRICS–US relations. Our BRICS Convergence

Index measures policy convergence of the BRICS states using a novel data set of BRICS cooperation on 47

policy issues between 2009 and 2021. Using data on US policy preferences on the same issues, we also identify

the key sites of BRICS–US contestation. We find an overall increase in BRICS policy convergence and limited

divergence from US preferences across a wide range of policy issues. However, since BRICS has engaged

with more security issues after 2015 and substantively deepened its cooperation, its capability to counter US

influence has grown. Our convergence-focused analysis of informal institutions embraces members’ agency

and pathways for institution building, while identifying the issues that bind rival countries. As such, it helps

explain how informal institutions gain robustness and provides empirical insights into the rise of new powers

and global governance reform efforts.

8. 基于實(shí)踐和公共審議的規(guī)范性：保留人類對使用武力的控制權(quán)（Practice-based and

public-deliberative normativity: retaining human control over the use of force）

Ingvild Bode，南丹麥大學(xué)國際關(guān)系副教授

【摘要】關(guān)于致命自主武器系統(tǒng)（LAWS）的辯論將其描述為需要先發(fā)制人監(jiān)管的未來問題，例如通

過編纂有意義的人類控制。但自主技術(shù)已經(jīng)成為武器的一部分，并影響著各國對人類控制的看法。為

了理解這一規(guī)范空間，本文將分兩步進(jìn)行：首先，本文將從理論上說明設(shè)計(jì)、人員培訓(xùn)和操作集成了

自主技術(shù)的武器系統(tǒng)的實(shí)踐是如何在看不見的地方形成人類控制的規(guī)范性/正常性的。其次，本文通過

對潛在的互動(dòng)動(dòng)態(tài)進(jìn)行理論分析，追溯這種規(guī)范性/規(guī)范性如何與政府專家組（GGE）對致命性自主武

器系統(tǒng)的公開討論相互作用。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，與集成了自主技術(shù)的武器系統(tǒng)相關(guān)的實(shí)踐所產(chǎn)生的規(guī)范性/正

常性，賦予了人類在具體的武力使用決策中被削弱的角色，并將這種被削弱的決策能力理解為“適當(dāng)

的”和“正常的”。在公共審議過程中，利益相關(guān)者通過忽視、疏遠(yuǎn)或積極承認(rèn)（而非嚴(yán)格審查）這

種規(guī)范性來與之互動(dòng)。這些論點(diǎn)超越了規(guī)范研究中公共審議的優(yōu)先地位，轉(zhuǎn)而探索在公眾視線之外的

場所進(jìn)行的規(guī)范性生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐。本文通過國際實(shí)踐理論、批判性安全研究和科學(xué)技術(shù)學(xué)術(shù)研究對這一過

程進(jìn)行了理論分析，從而得出慣例是如何塑造規(guī)范性的，如何呈現(xiàn)應(yīng)當(dāng)性和公正性的理念，以及如何

通過集體、重復(fù)的表演使某些事物正常化。

【原文】The debate about lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) characterises them as future problems

in need of pre-emptive regulation, for example, through codifying meaningful human control. But autonomous

technologies are already part of weapons and have shaped how states think about human control. To

understand this normative space, I proceed in two steps: first, I theorise how practices of designing, of training

personnel for, and of operating weapon systems integrating autonomous technologies have shaped

normativity/normality on human control at sites unseen. Second, I trace how this normativity/normality

interacts with public deliberations at the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWS by theorising

potential dynamics of interaction. I find that the normativity/normality emerging from practices performed in

relation to weapon systems integrating autonomous technologies assigns humans a reduced role in specific use

of force decisions and understands this diminished decision-making capacity as ‘a(chǎn)ppropriate’ and ‘normal’. In

the public-deliberative process, stakeholders have interacted with this normativity by ignoring it, engaging in

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distancing or positively acknowledging it – rather than scrutinising it. These arguments move beyond

prioritising public deliberation in norm research towards exploring practices performed at sites outside of the

public eye as productive of normativity. I theorise this process via international practice theories, critical

security studies and Science and Technology scholarship to draw out how practices shape normativity,

presenting ideas of oughtness and justice, and normality, making something appear normal via collective,

repeated performances.

9. 銀色余暉：動(dòng)員如何塑造政變對民主化的影響（Clouds with silver linings: how

mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization）

Marianne Dahl，挪威奧斯陸和平研究所（PRIO）高級研究員

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch，英國埃塞克斯大學(xué)政府系政治學(xué)教授，挪威奧斯陸和平研究所 (PRIO)教

授

【摘要】關(guān)于政變對民主化的影響，爭論由來已久。一些人認(rèn)為，政變有助于促進(jìn)向民主統(tǒng)治的過渡。

但也有人認(rèn)為，政變往往會(huì)加劇鎮(zhèn)壓和專制，破壞民主改革的希望。作者認(rèn)為，政變后更有可能發(fā)生

民主和專制變革，而民眾動(dòng)員在塑造政變后的軌跡方面起著至關(guān)重要的作用。當(dāng)政變發(fā)生時(shí)有大量的

民眾動(dòng)員，民主化的可能性就更大。政變揭示了政權(quán)內(nèi)部的裂痕，而在民眾動(dòng)員期間，來自內(nèi)部的壓

力和來自外部的威脅相結(jié)合，會(huì)促進(jìn)承諾民主改革的更大動(dòng)力。在沒有民眾動(dòng)員的情況下，專制統(tǒng)治

更有可能發(fā)生，尤其是在政變成功的情況下。作者在全球數(shù)據(jù)集中檢驗(yàn)了民眾動(dòng)員和政變對民主變化

的綜合影響，考慮了事件和制度變化的具體日期、政變的結(jié)果，并使用衰減函數(shù)來捕捉持續(xù)性影響。

分析結(jié)果為作者的論點(diǎn)提供了有力的支持，其主要結(jié)論在多種替代檢驗(yàn)中都是可靠的。作者的分析強(qiáng)

調(diào)了研究政變背景下的變化以了解其可能產(chǎn)生的政治后果的價(jià)值。

【原文】There is a long-standing debate over the impact of coups on democratization. Some argue that coups

can help promote transitions to democratic rule. Yet, others contend that coups often spur increased repression

and autocratization, undermining hopes of democratic reform. We argue that both democratic and autocratic

changes are more likely after a coup and that popular mobilization plays a crucial role in shaping the postcoup trajectory. Democratization is more likely when coups occur in the presence of significant popular

mobilization. A coup reveals cracks within a regime, and the combination of pressure from within and threat

from below during popular mobilizations fosters greater incentives to promise democratic reform. In the

absence of popular mobilization, autocratic rule is more likely, especially when a coup is successful. We test

our argument on the combined effect of popular mobilization and coups on changes in democracy in a global

dataset, considering the specific dates of events and institutional changes, the outcomes of coups, and using

decay functions to capture persistent effects. The analysis provides strong support for our argument, with the

key findings robust across a number of alternative tests. Our analysis underscores the value of examining

variation in the context of coups to understand their likely political consequences.

10. 永恒的本體論危機(jī)：國家分裂、持久焦慮以及韓國與日本的話語關(guān)系（Perpetual

ontological crisis: national division, enduring anxieties and South Korea’s discursive

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relationship with Japan）

Chris Deacon，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院國際關(guān)系系博士研究院

【摘要】國際關(guān)系中本體論安全學(xué)術(shù)研究的廣泛議程是研究國家自我認(rèn)同的（不）安全及其對國家國

際行為的影響。雖然本體論安全可能是一個(gè)虛幻的目標(biāo)，但各國的本體論不安全程度各不相同，更極

端的程度會(huì)產(chǎn)生尖銳的防御機(jī)制。因此，這種本體論危機(jī)是一個(gè)日益受到關(guān)注的重要領(lǐng)域。然而，迄

今為止，它們通常被概念化為 \"危急情況\"：常規(guī)化實(shí)踐中不可預(yù)測、短暫且可實(shí)際解決的斷裂。本文

認(rèn)為，這種概念化忽視了自我認(rèn)同的更根本、更長期的危機(jī)的可能性，本文稱之為永恒的本體論危機(jī)。

這種危機(jī)源于主流身份建構(gòu)中可能一直存在的內(nèi)在矛盾--而不是對迄今安全的自我的外來沖擊，因此

在這些建構(gòu)的范圍內(nèi)是無法解決的。本文提出了民族/國家不協(xié)調(diào)的例子：當(dāng)一個(gè)國家的領(lǐng)土邊界與該

國占主導(dǎo)地位的民族空間想象不一致時(shí)，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生內(nèi)在的、持久的矛盾。然后，本文以韓國為例說明

這些論點(diǎn)，韓國的邊界從未與想象中的韓國國家空間邊界相吻合。為了說明這一危機(jī)的影響，本文進(jìn)

行了一項(xiàng)話語分析，證明了有關(guān)韓國分裂的持久本體論焦慮與韓國與日本的長期對立關(guān)系之間的聯(lián)系。

因此，本文對讀者如何理解本體論危機(jī)具有重要意義，并對其經(jīng)驗(yàn)案例進(jìn)行了新穎的闡述。

【原文】The broad agenda of ontological security scholarship in International Relations is to examine states’

(in)security of Self-identity and the implications for their international conduct. While ontological security

may be an illusory goal, states vary in their levels of ontological insecurity, with more extreme levels producing

acute defence mechanisms. Such ontological crises are therefore an important area of focus gaining increasing

attention. Thus far, however, they have generally been conceptualised as ‘critical situations’: unpredictable,

transient and practically resolvable ruptures of routinised practices. I argue that such a conceptualisation

neglects the possibility of a more fundamental, long-term crisis of Self-identity, which I term perpetual

ontological crisis. Such crises stem from inherent contradictions within dominant constructions of identity that

may have always existed – rather than exogenous shocks to a hitherto secure Self – and are therefore

irresolvable within the bounds of those constructions. I develop the example of nation/state incongruence:

when a state’s territorial boundaries do not accord with the national spatial imaginary dominant in that state,

resulting in an inherent and enduring contradiction. I then illustrate these contentions with a case study of

South Korea, whose borders have never matched the imagined spatial bounds of the Korean nation. To

demonstrate the implications of this crisis, I conduct a discourse analysis evidencing a nexus between enduring

ontological anxieties concerning Korean division and South Korea’s persistently antagonistic relationship with

Japan. In doing so, this article has important implications for how we understand ontological crisis and offers

a novel account of its empirical case.

【編譯：張瀟文】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

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《國際事務(wù)》（International Affairs）

International Affairs，Vol.99，No.5，2023

1. 和平領(lǐng)域的知識生產(chǎn)：參與者、層級和政策相關(guān)性（Knowledge production on

peace: actors, hierarchies and policy relevance）

Sara Hellmüller，蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院高級研究員

Laurent Goetschel，巴塞爾大學(xué)政治科學(xué)教授

Kristoffer Lidén，奧斯陸和平研究中心高級研究員

【摘要】這個(gè)專題部分關(guān)注和平知識的生產(chǎn)，提出了三個(gè)相互關(guān)聯(lián)的問題：誰在生產(chǎn)和平知識，哪些

知識被優(yōu)先考慮，以及這些知識如何影響政策和實(shí)踐。這個(gè)部分的文章以批判的視角探討了和平研究

中的參與者、動(dòng)態(tài)和層級，并提供了關(guān)于如何解決當(dāng)前偏見的見解。這個(gè)專題部分對和平研究和更廣

泛的國際關(guān)系做出了三方面的貢獻(xiàn)。首先，它涉及到有關(guān)這些學(xué)科最初目的以及它們與政策辯論的關(guān)

系的核心辯論。其次，它融入了有關(guān)性別和去殖民化這些學(xué)科的當(dāng)前辯論，以及確保更多多樣性的必

要性。第三，它是一個(gè)新興研究議程的一部分，該議程關(guān)注哪種類型的知識影響了哪種類型的參與者

和機(jī)構(gòu)。總體而言，這個(gè)專題部分顯示，特別在導(dǎo)致重新審視我們關(guān)于和平與沖突思考的世界政治巨

變時(shí)，了解哪些知識被特權(quán)化，這些知識屬于誰，以及這些知識如何與它試圖影響的實(shí)踐相關(guān)，是至

關(guān)重要的。只有這樣，才能克服內(nèi)在的偏見、層級和實(shí)際斷裂。

【原文】This special section focuses on knowledge production on peace by asking three inter-related questions:

who produces knowledge on peace, what knowledge is prioritized and how does it feed into policy and practice.

The articles of the section provide a critical perspective on the actors, dynamics and hierarchies in peace studies

and offer insights into how current biases may be addressed. The special section contributes to peace research

and broader International Relations in three ways. First, it speaks to the core of debates about the original

purpose of the disciplines and their proximity to policy debates. Second, it is embedded in current debates

《國際事務(wù)》（International Affairs）是國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的一

流學(xué)術(shù)期刊，也是多學(xué)科綜合性學(xué)術(shù)期刊。本刊于 1992 年

由倫敦皇家國際事務(wù)研究所查塔姆學(xué)院（Chatham House）

創(chuàng)立，內(nèi)容來源廣泛，力圖囊括業(yè)內(nèi)專家、學(xué)術(shù)新秀對重

點(diǎn)、熱點(diǎn)問題的最新思考。2022 年期刊影響因子為 4.5，

在 96 個(gè)國際關(guān)系類刊物中位列第 7 名。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

139

about gendering and decolonializing the disciplines and the need to ensure more diversity. Third, it is part of

an emerging research agenda on what types of knowledge influence which types of actors and institutions.

Overall, the special section shows that especially in times of tectonic changes in world politics that lead to a

revisiting of our thinking about peace and conflict, it is crucial to understand what knowledge is privileged,

whose knowledge this is and how the knowledge relates to the practices it seeks to inform. Only then can builtin biases, hierarchies and practical disconnects be overcome.

2. 調(diào)解領(lǐng)域的知識生產(chǎn)：以實(shí)踐為導(dǎo)向，但不一定與實(shí)踐相關(guān)？（Knowledge

production on mediation: practice-oriented, but not practice-relevant?）

Sara Hellmüller，蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院高級研究員

【摘要】國際調(diào)解已經(jīng)成為應(yīng)對武裝沖突的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)回應(yīng)，這在該領(lǐng)域不斷擴(kuò)大的研究議程中有所體現(xiàn)。

本文探討了關(guān)于調(diào)解實(shí)踐與研究之間所謂的脫節(jié)。本研究分析了發(fā)表在高度排名的學(xué)術(shù)期刊中的文章，

提供了關(guān)于誰在生產(chǎn)有關(guān)調(diào)解的知識、如何生產(chǎn)這種知識以及生產(chǎn)了什么知識的見解。研究表明，大

部分關(guān)于調(diào)解的學(xué)術(shù)研究由西方男性視角進(jìn)行，實(shí)證主義方法占主導(dǎo)地位，并且大多數(shù)出版物理論化

了調(diào)解成功的原因。通過這一分析，本文表明，盡管高影響力的調(diào)解研究是以實(shí)踐為導(dǎo)向的，因?yàn)榇?/p>

多數(shù)研究關(guān)注如何使調(diào)解更加有效，但它的實(shí)踐相關(guān)性可以通過三種方式加強(qiáng)：通過增加不同的視角，

通過增加更多的解釋性和定性方法，以及通過產(chǎn)生更多的批判性研究。本文還表明，發(fā)表在更專業(yè)的

期刊、書籍和政策文獻(xiàn)中的更廣泛的調(diào)解研究有助于填補(bǔ)這些差距。因此，本研究細(xì)化了調(diào)解研究與

實(shí)踐之間被認(rèn)為存在的脫節(jié)?？偟膩碚f，本文對調(diào)解知識生產(chǎn)進(jìn)行了全面的審查，并為有關(guān)多樣性和

和平研究領(lǐng)域更廣泛的批判潛力的討論做出了貢獻(xiàn)。

【原文】International mediation has become a standard response to armed conflicts, reflected in an expanding

research agenda on the topic. This article examines the alleged disconnect between practice and research on

mediation. It analyses articles published in highly ranked academic journals and provides insights on who

produces knowledge on mediation, how such knowledge is produced and what knowledge is produced. It

shows that western male scholars produce the majority of scholarly research on mediation; that positivist

approaches dominate these analyses and that most publications theorize about reasons for mediation success.

Through this analysis, the article demonstrates that while high-impact mediation research is practice-oriented

in that most contributions examine how to make it more effective, its practice-relevance could be strengthened

in three ways: by increasing the diversity of perspectives, by adding more interpretive and qualitative

approaches and by producing more critical research. The article demonstrates that broader mediation research

published in more specialized journals, books and the policy literature contributes to filling these gaps. It

therefore nuances the presumed disconnect between mediation research and practice. Overall, the article

provides a thorough review of knowledge production on mediation and adds to discussions on diversity and

the critical potential of the broader field of peace studies.

3. 轉(zhuǎn)型正義知識生產(chǎn)中的方法政治（The politics of methods in transitional justice

140

knowledge production）

Ulrike Lühe，瑞士和平（Swisspeace）研究員

【摘要】本文關(guān)注知識生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐與轉(zhuǎn)型正義（TJ）國際政治之間的關(guān)系。文章認(rèn)為，對早期 TJ 學(xué)術(shù)

主要以敘述性和規(guī)范性研究為主的呼吁，而進(jìn)行的數(shù)量性學(xué)術(shù)研究，這些研究被認(rèn)為仍然影響著 TJ

子領(lǐng)域，如對地方司法研究的影響，這些數(shù)量性研究本身也致力于 TJ 的規(guī)范框架和目標(biāo)，而這些研

究旨在提供工具來挑戰(zhàn)這些框架和目標(biāo)。運(yùn)用“方法政治”的視角，文章強(qiáng)調(diào)了調(diào)查的解釋性工作和

大量樣本影響研究的方法選擇，這些方法將這些研究圈定為狹義的 TJ 應(yīng)該是什么樣的觀念。文章的

結(jié)論表明，這些“方法政治”如何有助于去政治化本質(zhì)上是政治性選擇和實(shí)踐的選擇，并預(yù)定了哪些

政策和實(shí)踐選擇被認(rèn)為是有用的、相關(guān)的甚至可想象的。因此，它們塑造了它們聲稱只是研究的對象。

這一分析既有助于國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的批判性方法論討論，也為 TJ 領(lǐng)域的研究-政策-實(shí)踐關(guān)系初露端倪

的學(xué)術(shù)研究提供了一個(gè)未經(jīng)充分探討的例子，展示了被認(rèn)為是獨(dú)立的知識生產(chǎn)和政治之間的相互構(gòu)成

關(guān)系。

【原文】This article is concerned with how practices of knowledge production relate to the international

politics of transitional justice (TJ). It argues that quantitative scholarly studies—called for in response to the

anecdotal and normative studies that prevailed in early TJ scholarship and which, it is argued, continue to

shape TJ sub-fields such as the study of local justice—are themselves committed to the normative framework

and the goals of TJ that they seek to provide the tools to challenge. Applying a ‘politics of methods’ lens, the

article foregrounds the interpretive work of surveys and the methodological choices of large-N impact studies

which circle these works back to narrowly defined ideas of what TJ ought to be. The conclusions show how

these ‘politics of methods’ contribute to the decontestation of an inherently political choice and practice, and

predetermine what policy and practice options are considered useful, relevant and even imaginable. As such

they shape that which they claim only to examine. Contributing to both critical methodological debates in

International Relations and nascent scholarship on the research–policy–practice nexus in TJ, the analysis

provides an under-examined example of the co-constitutive relationship of what is considered to be detached

knowledge production and politics.

4. 性別作為暴力沖突的原因（Gender as a cause of violent conflict）

Elisabeth Prügl，日內(nèi)瓦高級國際關(guān)系及發(fā)展學(xué)院教授

【摘要】這篇文章主張性別可以被理解為導(dǎo)致暴力沖突的因素，盡管有關(guān)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)和沖突轉(zhuǎn)化的文獻(xiàn)在這

個(gè)問題上很少有涉及。問題在于，傳統(tǒng)的因果關(guān)系理解將其定義為解釋規(guī)律性，這無法把握性別與其

他差異標(biāo)志交叉作用的生產(chǎn)性和展演性。在哲學(xué)現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的基礎(chǔ)上，文章引入了社會(huì)機(jī)制的概念，并

對其進(jìn)行了重構(gòu)，以使其與建構(gòu)主義和后結(jié)構(gòu)主義理論相容。文章發(fā)展了“交叉性別機(jī)制”的概念，

以顯示性別的生產(chǎn)力，并提出性別在與其他差異標(biāo)志相交的情況下，作為暴力沖突的因果驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

它提出了一種實(shí)用主義方法，將原因理解為人們提供的事情發(fā)生原因，這與致力于變革和從特定背景

理解世界的女性主義方法論相聯(lián)系。文章借鑒現(xiàn)有的女性主義文獻(xiàn)，然后確定了驅(qū)動(dòng)沖突動(dòng)態(tài)的三種

典型的交叉性別機(jī)制：男性主義的保護(hù)、男性主義的競爭和為生存而動(dòng)員。最后，文章總結(jié)了這種方

法對將性別融入和平建設(shè)和沖突預(yù)防的主流影響的意義。

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

141

【原文】The article argues that gender can be understood to cause violent conflict, although the literatures on

civil war and conflict transformation are largely silent on the matter. The problem is an understanding of

causation as explaining regularities, which fails to grasp how gender, in intersection with other markers of

difference, is productive and performative. Building on philosophical realism, the article introduces the

concept of social mechanisms and reformulates it to become compatible with constructivist and

poststructuralist theorizing. It develops the notion of ‘intersectionally-gendered mechanisms’ to bring into

view the productive force of gender and proposes that gender, in intersection with other axes of differentiation,

operates as a causal driver of violent conflicts. It suggests a pragmatist approach that understands causes as

the reasons people provide for why things are happening, which connects to feminist methodologies that are

committed to change and to understanding the world from situated contexts. Drawing on existing feminist

literature it then identifies three exemplary intersectionally-gendered mechanisms driving conflict dynamics:

masculinist protection, masculinist competition, and mobilization for survival. It concludes by drawing out the

implications of this approach for mainstreaming gender into peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

5. “底層的聲音”：我們作為專家，能夠傾聽嗎？（The ‘subaltern speak’: can we, the

experts, listen?）

Navnita Chadha Behera，印度德里大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系教授

【摘要】和平與沖突研究中的知識生產(chǎn)存在著脫節(jié)，這種脫節(jié)表現(xiàn)在其“專家主導(dǎo)”的研究探究和世

界各地人們的生活實(shí)際之間。文章關(guān)注了在不同利益相關(guān)者中，什么知識以及誰的知識被認(rèn)為是合法

的問題，將這種脫節(jié)的存在歸因于帝國主義所造成的認(rèn)識上的抹除以及其持久的遺產(chǎn)，尤其是特權(quán)政

治在維護(hù)秩序方面對社會(huì)機(jī)構(gòu)的政治首要性和自主性的特權(quán)。這與西方現(xiàn)代性的限制性認(rèn)知方式一起

解釋了政府和學(xué)術(shù)專業(yè)知識中的國家中心主義，尤其是在后殖民社會(huì)。文章主張將知識的認(rèn)知方式和

研究工具置于歷史和去殖民化的語境中，并說明了如何通過參考 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代初印度查謨克什米爾

邦發(fā)生的克什米爾沖突來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。與 Gayatri Spivak 提出的備受贊譽(yù)的問題“底層能否說話？”

不同，文章認(rèn)為社會(huì)底層能夠說話，而且從未保持沉默。因此，文章提出的問題是：我們作為專家，

是否能夠傾聽？

【原文】Knowledge production in peace and conflict research is marked by a disconnect between its

‘expertise-driven’ research inquiries and lived realities of people across the world. In focusing on what

knowledge and whose knowledge counts as legitimate among the diverse stakeholders, the article locates the

raison d'être of this gap in the epistemic erasures inflicted by imperial knowledge and its lasting legacies,

especially that of privileging the primacy and autonomy of the political over the social institutions in

maintaining order. This, along with the limiting epistemes of western modernity explain the state-centrism in

governmental and academic expertise, especially in post-colonial societies. The article makes a case for

historicizing and decolonizing its epistemes and tools of research, and illustrates how this can be done by

drawing on the Kashmir conflict as it unfolded in the early 1990s in the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir

state. In a point of departure from the much-acclaimed question asked by Gayatri Spivak: ‘can the subaltern

142

speak?’, the article argues that the subaltern can speak and has indeed never been silent. So, the question it

poses is: can we, the experts, listen?

6. 數(shù)字工具作為國際和平與安全領(lǐng)域的專家（Digital tools as experts in international

peace and security）

Luisa Cruz Lobato，里約熱內(nèi)盧天主教大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院講師

Victoria Santos，華盛頓州 BIPOC 教育部聯(lián)盟聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人

【摘要】在過去的幾十年里，關(guān)于和平與安全的知識越來越多地通過數(shù)字對象，如數(shù)據(jù)庫、指標(biāo)、應(yīng)

用程序、大數(shù)據(jù)和數(shù)據(jù)分析算法，進(jìn)行傳播和共同創(chuàng)造，而最近學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)才剛剛開始認(rèn)識到這一點(diǎn)。

本文通過探討數(shù)字對象設(shè)計(jì)在它們成為國際和平與安全實(shí)踐的專家時(shí)的核心作用，填補(bǔ)了學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)中

的空白。通過將設(shè)計(jì)的政治性置于中心位置，我們?yōu)殛P(guān)于技術(shù)對當(dāng)代國際政策中誰/什么被認(rèn)為是專家

的影響的更廣泛辯論做出了貢獻(xiàn)。通過對聯(lián)合國制裁應(yīng)用程序和安全援助監(jiān)視數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行材料-符號

分析，并與創(chuàng)作者和用戶進(jìn)行半結(jié)構(gòu)化訪談，我們展示了包容性的規(guī)范目標(biāo)如何被寫入數(shù)字工件中并

轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際使用。這些案例的選擇基于它們將相關(guān)的國家和非國家行為者納入政策決策，我們的研究

結(jié)果表明，物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在推進(jìn)這一目標(biāo)的過程中發(fā)揮了重要作用。我們揭示了數(shù)字專家對象如何通

過與它們的制作所涉及的關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)生可行的知識，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了從業(yè)者參與制作此類對象的重要性。

【原文】Over the past decades, knowledge about peace and security has become increasingly mediated and

co-produced with and through digital objects such as databases, indicators, apps, big data and data analysis

algorithms. Only recently has the literature begun to recognize this. This article addresses the gap in the

literature by exploring the centrality of digital objects' design in their emergence as experts in relation to

international peace and security practices. By centering the politics of design, we contribute to broader debates

on the effects of technology for who/what is considered an expert in contemporary international policy.

Through a material-semiotic analysis of the UN SanctionsApp and the Security Assistance Monitor database,

and semi-structured interviews with creators and users, we show how the normative goal of inclusion is

inscribed into digital artifacts and translated into use. These cases were selected based on their inclusion of

relevant state and nonstate actors into policy decisions, and our findings suggest that usage and material

infrastructures play an important role in how this purpose is advanced. We shed light onto how digital expert

objects produce actionable knowledge via the web of relations implicated in their production and highlight the

importance of practitioners' participation in the making of such objects.

7. 研究如何轉(zhuǎn)化為政策：北歐和平研究的案例（How research travels to policy: the case

of Nordic peace research）

Isabel Bramsen，瑞典隆德大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系副教授

Anine Hagemann，哥本哈根大學(xué)國際沖突解決中心研究員

【摘要】和平研究與實(shí)踐之間的聯(lián)系是什么？觀察者們曾經(jīng)認(rèn)為，和平研究已經(jīng)從有關(guān)改變世界的行

動(dòng)主義政治理想轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€(gè)以方法為驅(qū)動(dòng)的研究領(lǐng)域，失去了所有的批判性。這篇文章通過調(diào)查北歐

和平研究及其與實(shí)踐的關(guān)系來為這一辯論增添了實(shí)證內(nèi)容。通過對 60 多名個(gè)體的采訪數(shù)據(jù)，包括杰

2024 年第 1 期（總第 13 期）

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出的和平與沖突學(xué)者以及從事和平與沖突解決工作的從業(yè)者，我們通過四個(gè)“旅行者”來概念化和平

研究與實(shí)踐之間的關(guān)系：1) 研究者，2) 學(xué)生，3) 理論和概念，以及 4) 經(jīng)驗(yàn)性發(fā)現(xiàn)。我們描述了這

四個(gè)旅行者的獨(dú)特特征，并討論了和平研究隨時(shí)間變化的影響；從研究者充當(dāng)調(diào)解者和和平活動(dòng)家到

越來越多的專業(yè)化，解開了和平研究與實(shí)踐的聯(lián)系，縮小了實(shí)踐中的反思空間以及將實(shí)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)整合到

研究中的能力。我們討論了未來的路徑，強(qiáng)調(diào)合創(chuàng)，建議和平研究不一定需要通過提供具體的政策建

議來影響政策，而更多地是通過提出重大而困難的問題，如“如何實(shí)現(xiàn)和平？”和“為什么發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭？”

來影響政策。

【原文】How is peace research connected to practice? Observers have argued that peace research has gone

from activist, political ideals about changing the world to being a methods-driven field of research that has

lost all criticality. This article adds empirical substance to the debate by investigating the case of Nordic peace

research and its relationship to practice. Through interview data with more than 60 individuals, including

prominent peace and conflict scholars as well as practitioners working with peace and conflict resolution, we

conceptualize the practice–research relationship through four ‘travelers’ connecting peace research and

practice: 1) researchers, 2) students, 3) theories and concepts and 4) empirical findings. We describe distinct

characteristics of the four travelers and discuss the changing impact of peace research over time; from

researchers acting as mediators and peace activists to an increasing professionalization that has disentangled

peace research and practice, shrinking the space for reflexivity in practice as well as the ability to integrate

practical experience into research. We discuss the paths forward in terms of co-creation and suggest that peace

research need not necessarily influence policy in terms of concrete policy advice but more so by asking big

and difficult questions such as ‘how peace?’ and ‘why war?’

8. 顧客永遠(yuǎn)是對的：國際調(diào)解中的政策研究領(lǐng)域（The customer is always right: the

policy research arena in international mediation）

Laurie Nathan，圣母大學(xué)克羅克國際和平研究學(xué)院調(diào)解項(xiàng)目主任

【摘要】這篇文章探討了研究對國際調(diào)解的影響。本文駁斥了有關(guān)調(diào)解研究不會(huì)影響政策和實(shí)踐的說

法。相反，文章表明，聯(lián)合國、政府間發(fā)展機(jī)構(gòu)（IGAD）和其他政策制定者不僅對調(diào)解研究持開放態(tài)

度，而且起到積極委托和傳播研究的作用。文章認(rèn)為，調(diào)解政策研究領(lǐng)域類似于寡買者市場，即市場

上有少數(shù)幾個(gè)重要的買家和大量的賣家，是一個(gè)不完全競爭的市場。因此，交易權(quán)力掌握在政策制定

者手中，政策研究領(lǐng)域旨在滿足他們的偏好。他們對提高調(diào)解效果的問題解決研究具有功利主義偏好。

在方法上，他們偏好包括與調(diào)解者面談在內(nèi)的比較案例研究，而不認(rèn)為定量分析有用。在傳播過程方

面，他們青睞根據(jù)自身需求定制的委托研究。他們期望委托研究符合他們的規(guī)范，服務(wù)于特定目的，

反映對調(diào)解的深刻理解，并提出功能上合理、政治上合適和經(jīng)濟(jì)上可行的建議。對于調(diào)解研究人員來

說，最重要的是，如果能夠滿足他們研究的預(yù)期接收者的知識要求，他們最有可能影響政策和實(shí)踐。

【原文】This article examines the influence of research on international mediation. It refutes claims that

mediation research has not influenced policy and practice. On the contrary, it shows that the United Nations,

the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other policy-makers are not only receptive to

mediation research but proactively commission and disseminate research. The article argues that the mediation

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policy research arena resembles an oligopsony, which is an imperfect competitive market with a small number

of important buyers and a large number of sellers. Consequently, transaction power lies with the policymakers,

and the policy research arena is geared to meeting their preferences. They have a utilitarian preference for

problem-solving research that enhances the effectiveness of mediation. They have a methodological preference

for comparative case-studies that include interviews with mediators, and do not regard quantitative analysis as

useful. In terms of transmission processes, they favour commissioned research tailored to meet their needs.

They expect commissioned research to conform to their norms, serve a specified purpose, reflect a deep

understanding of mediation, and make proposals that are functionally sound, politically appropriate and

financially viable. The bottom line for mediation researchers is that they are most likely to influence policy

and practice if they meet the knowledge requirements of the intended recipients of their research.

9. 分析國際組織中技術(shù)官僚和外交官之間的分歧（Analysing the divide between

technocrats and diplomats in international organizations）

Jamie Pring，聯(lián)合國大學(xué)比較區(qū)域一體化研究所研究員及巴塞爾大學(xué)講師

【摘要】國際關(guān)系學(xué)者對技術(shù)知識如何提高國際組織的表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)它可能導(dǎo)致對其更廣泛

目標(biāo)的破壞?，F(xiàn)有研究尚未具體說明技術(shù)熟練度將在何時(shí)如何導(dǎo)致這種情況，對這些相沖突的觀察結(jié)

果進(jìn)行調(diào)和。為了解決這一問題，本文探討了組織內(nèi)實(shí)踐社群 (CoP) 之間的聯(lián)系，將技術(shù)知識與其他

形式的知識、參與者和工具聯(lián)系起來。這對于應(yīng)對更大環(huán)境中的實(shí)踐、提高組織表現(xiàn)來說至關(guān)重要。

為說明這一點(diǎn)，本文探討了兩個(gè) CoP（即技術(shù) CoP 和外交 CoP）在制定和部署非洲調(diào)解支持結(jié)構(gòu)中

的作用。該研究對官方文件、報(bào)告、學(xué)術(shù)著作以及對官員、合作伙伴和分析者的半結(jié)構(gòu)化專家訪談進(jìn)

行了定性分析，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，相關(guān) CoP 之間的脫節(jié)會(huì)導(dǎo)致對特定的知識和工具，尤其是技術(shù)知識的過

度關(guān)注，而犧牲了其他對于解決 IO 運(yùn)營環(huán)境至關(guān)重要的問題，從而導(dǎo)致功能障礙。CoP 之間的聯(lián)系

促進(jìn)了對環(huán)境的整體響應(yīng)，使組織能夠根據(jù)其職責(zé)運(yùn)作。

【原文】International Relations scholarship has examined how technical knowledge boosts the performance

of international organizations, but has found that it could also lead to behaviour undermining their broader

goals. Research has not reconciled these contrasting observations by specifying when and how technical

proficiency leads to such dysfunction. Addressing these gaps, this article examines the connections among

Communities of Practice (CoPs) within the organization in linking technical knowledge with other forms of

knowledge, actors and tools crucial to address the larger environment, enhancing performance. To illustrate

this, the article examines the role of two CoPs, namely, the technical CoP and the diplomatic CoP, in

developing and deploying African Mediation Support Structures. The research uses qualitative analysis of

official documents, reports, scholarly works and semi-structured expert interviews of officials, partners and

analysts. It finds that disconnections among relevant CoPs foster an excessive focus on specific sets of

knowledge and tools, particularly technical knowledge, at the expense of engaging others also crucial in

addressing the IOs' operating environment, leading to dysfunction. Connections among CoPs promote a

holistic response to the environment, enabling the organization to function according to its mandate.