国产AV88|国产乱妇无码在线观看|国产影院精品在线观看十分钟福利|免费看橹橹网站

《國際關(guān)系前沿》2024年第2期(總第14期)

發(fā)布時間:2024-4-25 | 雜志分類:其他
免費制作
更多內(nèi)容

《國際關(guān)系前沿》2024年第2期(總第14期)

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)95庇護國向其盟國施壓以增加責(zé)任分擔(dān)努力的能力取決于盟國擔(dān)心其退出聯(lián)盟的程度。作為對其聯(lián)盟的替代,庇護國有兩種選擇。首先,它可以單方面放棄承諾或減少提供的保護,無論是奉行更加自給自足、甚至是孤立主義的外交政策,還是尋求與對手和解。這兩種方式并不相互排斥,實際上是相輔相成的;與對手緩和關(guān)系可以減少結(jié)盟的理由,從而促進削減的努力。第二,庇護國可以找到其他盟國。因此,庇護國在多大程度上有能力采取上述任一選擇,決定了其威脅拋棄盟友的可信度。具體而言,作者認為盟國的戰(zhàn)略價值和威脅環(huán)境這兩個要素會影響這些外部選項的可信程度。當盟國的戰(zhàn)略價值較低時,庇護國更容易拋棄該盟國。盟國的戰(zhàn)略價值越高,庇護國就越有確保其留在自己陣營中的意愿,因此庇護國就越有可能保護盟國。同時如果沒有庇護國的保護,盟國的處境會更糟時,盟國對被拋棄的恐懼也可能更加突出。特別是,當盟國對外部威脅的感知程度較高時,盟國會更擔(dān)心被拋棄,從而更容易受到庇護國的壓力。盟國受到共同對手攻擊越脆弱,沒有庇護國的援助時的戰(zhàn)斗成本就越高。因此,庇護國利用盟國擔(dān)心被拋棄恐懼的能力,既取決于盟國是否認為其退出威... [收起]
[展開]
《國際關(guān)系前沿》2024年第2期(總第14期)
粉絲: {{bookData.followerCount}}
中國國際關(guān)系學(xué)界最大的學(xué)術(shù)編譯平臺,專注國內(nèi)外權(quán)威雜志前沿學(xué)術(shù)動態(tài)。受眾定位高水平研究者,目前已覆蓋國內(nèi)本領(lǐng)域所有科研院校。聯(lián)系:guozhengxueren@163.com
文本內(nèi)容
第101頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

95

庇護國向其盟國施壓以增加責(zé)任分擔(dān)努力的能力取決于盟國擔(dān)心其退出聯(lián)盟的程度。

作為對其聯(lián)盟的替代,庇護國有兩種選擇。首先,它可以單方面放棄承諾或減少提供的

保護,無論是奉行更加自給自足、甚至是孤立主義的外交政策,還是尋求與對手和解。這

兩種方式并不相互排斥,實際上是相輔相成的;與對手緩和關(guān)系可以減少結(jié)盟的理由,

從而促進削減的努力。第二,庇護國可以找到其他盟國。因此,庇護國在多大程度上有能

力采取上述任一選擇,決定了其威脅拋棄盟友的可信度。具體而言,作者認為盟國的戰(zhàn)

略價值和威脅環(huán)境這兩個要素會影響這些外部選項的可信程度。

當盟國的戰(zhàn)略價值較低時,庇護國更容易拋棄該盟國。盟國的戰(zhàn)略價值越高,庇護

國就越有確保其留在自己陣營中的意愿,因此庇護國就越有可能保護盟國。同時如果沒

有庇護國的保護,盟國的處境會更糟時,盟國對被拋棄的恐懼也可能更加突出。特別是,

當盟國對外部威脅的感知程度較高時,盟國會更擔(dān)心被拋棄,從而更容易受到庇護國的

壓力。盟國受到共同對手攻擊越脆弱,沒有庇護國的援助時的戰(zhàn)斗成本就越高。因此,庇

護國利用盟國擔(dān)心被拋棄恐懼的能力,既取決于盟國是否認為其退出威脅是可信的,也

取決于盟國對其保護的依賴程度。但這兩種因素往往是相互交織的,許多導(dǎo)致盟國對被

拋棄更脆弱的因素也能降低庇護國威脅的可信程度。共同對手構(gòu)成的外部威脅不僅使盟

國依賴于庇護國的保護,也使盟國在遏制和阻止對手擴張方面具有重要價值。因此,進

行實證預(yù)測所面臨的難題是聯(lián)盟的共同威脅環(huán)境與盟國對庇護國的戰(zhàn)略價值是密切相關(guān)

的。要區(qū)分這兩種機制并預(yù)測它們對盟國責(zé)任分擔(dān)的凈影響,有必要將威脅認知的各個

組成部分區(qū)分開來:對手的能力、對手的行為、對手意圖的認知以及地理脆弱性。作者認

為對手的能力和行為能夠同時塑造盟國和庇護國的威脅認知,但是地理和對手意圖的認

知則會在聯(lián)盟中有所不同。庇護國和盟友對對手意圖認知的不同難以衡量,影響威脅評

估的因素又多種多樣,因此本文只簡單預(yù)計如果盟國與庇護國有共同的對手,并且認為

對手的威脅程度較高,那么平均而言,這些盟國比那些與庇護國沒有共同的對手,并且

認為對手的威脅程度較低的盟國更有可能分擔(dān)責(zé)任。這反過來證明地理因素在聯(lián)盟責(zé)任

分擔(dān)中的重要性,因為地理因素既容易衡量,又因盟國而異。毗鄰共同的對手既是脆弱

性的來源,也是戰(zhàn)略價值的來源。對庇護國而言,與對手相鄰的盟國是遏制對手擴張的

有用屏障,以免對手在未來成為更大的威脅,因為這些盟國既能實際阻擋對手的擴張,

又能為庇護國提供領(lǐng)土,使庇護國可以從這些領(lǐng)土上投射力量以達到同樣的目的。然而,

第102頁

96

對于盟國來說,毗鄰對手會使其直接受到攻擊。因此,盟國毗鄰共同對手的效果取決于

盟友是否很容易受到攻擊,以至于其脆弱性超過了其為庇護國所帶來的價值。

基于以上的討論,作者認為可以做出兩個預(yù)測。首先,與庇護國沒有共同對手的盟

國不太可能分擔(dān)責(zé)任。其次,在與庇護國有共同對手的國家中,責(zé)任分擔(dān)的差異取決于

它們與這些對手的距離遠近。作者進一步指出毗鄰性的影響并不是線性的,與共同對手

在陸地上毗鄰的國家尤其脆弱,盡管它們具有戰(zhàn)略價值,但很可能會受到其庇護國責(zé)任

分擔(dān)壓力的影響。而與共同對手共享海洋邊界的國家并不會比起更遠的盟友在防衛(wèi)上花

費得更多或是更少。所以假設(shè) 1 如下,

假設(shè) 1a(H1a):當盟國與庇護國有共同的對手時,盟國更容易分擔(dān)責(zé)任。

假設(shè) 1b(H1b):當盟國與對手共享陸地邊界時,盟國更容易分擔(dān)責(zé)任。

此外,作者認為當盟國靠近對手周圍的關(guān)鍵海上咽喉時,它們不太可能分擔(dān)責(zé)任。

因為這些盟國在切斷對手的力量投射方面發(fā)揮著關(guān)鍵作用。

假設(shè) 2(H2):盟國如果位于其庇護國對手周圍的海上咽喉附近,就不太可能分擔(dān)責(zé)

任。

盟友戰(zhàn)略價值的最后一個要素是庇護國的替代選擇的豐富性。其他條件不變,與被

同樣是美國盟友的鄰國包圍的盟國相比,庇護國更無力放棄一個孤立無援的盟國。因此,

作者預(yù)計附近美國盟友較少的盟國的國防開支會減少。

假設(shè) 3(H3): 當盟國的鄰國中美國盟友較少時,盟國分擔(dān)責(zé)任的可能性較小。

1. 替代解釋

本文的理論預(yù)測與以下幾種替代解釋相反。第一種是“聯(lián)盟的經(jīng)濟理論”(economic

theory of alliances),預(yù)測更大的盟國會貢獻更多的 GDP 用于國防。第二種是政權(quán)類型,

認為民主國家會比威權(quán)國家對其人民更為負責(zé),一些研究表明民主國家在國防上花費更

少。第三,目前的研究表明美軍的存在應(yīng)該與盟友更低的國防開支有關(guān)。然而本文的理

論認為,美國的駐軍水平往往是共享的威脅環(huán)境或盟友戰(zhàn)略價值等其他因素的內(nèi)生結(jié)果。

此外,美國政策制定者還可以利用減少部隊人數(shù)的威脅來鼓勵責(zé)任分擔(dān)。最后,傳統(tǒng)的

均勢理論會預(yù)測盟國的防衛(wèi)努力是對其威脅環(huán)境的內(nèi)部制衡。本文的理論并不否認這一

觀點,但是本文指出外部威脅影響盟國責(zé)任分擔(dān)這另一種機制:使盟國害怕被拋棄,對

第103頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

97

庇護國的強制更為脆弱。并且本文的理論做出了一個新穎的實證預(yù)測:只有當盟國提供

的戰(zhàn)略價值不足以抵消外部威脅時,外部威脅才會影響責(zé)任分擔(dān),即當盟國與共同的對

手陸地接壤時。而諸如對手能力及行為等指標可能對責(zé)任分擔(dān)沒有凈影響,因為它們既

使盟國更容易被拋棄,也使盟國對庇護國更有價值,從而削弱了庇護國的拋棄威脅。相

反,均勢理論則預(yù)測所有威脅指標都會對盟國軍費開支產(chǎn)生一致的積極影響。

圖 1 外部威脅塑造盟國責(zé)任分擔(dān)的因果機制

2. 研究設(shè)計

-年。本

文的樣本從 1950 到 2010 年,包括了戰(zhàn)爭相關(guān)因素數(shù)據(jù)庫(COW)所定義的所有與美國

有防衛(wèi)協(xié)議的國家。然后,出于威脅環(huán)境(遠離美國的威脅),里約條約(Rio Treaty)

的本質(zhì)(并不是對抗外部威脅的協(xié)議而是管控成員國之間的沖突),美國與該區(qū)域國家

關(guān)系的性質(zhì)(美國把美洲視為自己的勢力范圍,拋棄盟國的威脅在這些聯(lián)盟中并不突出)

以及本文的自變量缺乏變化這四個原因,本文排除了美國在美洲的盟友。

3. 因變量與自變量

第104頁

98

本文的主要因變量是盟國軍事支出占 GDP 的百分比,數(shù)據(jù)來自戰(zhàn)爭相關(guān)因素數(shù)據(jù)庫

的國家物資能力(National Material Capabilities, NMC)數(shù)據(jù)集 5.0 版。而直接測量拋棄

的威脅是困難的,因為這些威脅極少是公開,而通常是間接的。并且盟國可能不愿意公

開沖突,以免給對手造成聯(lián)盟不團結(jié)的印象,或引起國內(nèi)對聯(lián)盟的不滿。盡管如此,如果

本文的假設(shè)是正確的,那么我們?nèi)匀粫鶕?jù)盟國在自變量上的得分情況,看到盟國軍費

開支的系統(tǒng)性差異,無論是由于直接或間接的庇護國壓力,還是由于盟國因害怕被拋棄

而主動增加國防開支。

本文的第一組自變量使用兩個虛擬變量來捕捉共同對手的存在和毗鄰程度:如果盟

國與共同對手國家有陸地邊界的話,虛擬變量取值為 1,否則為 0;如果盟國與美國有共

同對手但沒有陸地邊界,則另一個虛擬變量取值為 1,否則為 0。本文預(yù)計兩者都會對盟

國的軍費開支產(chǎn)生積極影響,并且前者的影響會更大,因為在陸地上與共同對手接壤的

盟國更容易受到攻擊,因此特別容易受到美國責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力的影響。在一些模型中,還

分別加入了盟國是否與共同對手相隔四百英里或更短水域的虛擬變量,以及盟國是否與

美國有共同對手但不靠近前者的虛擬變量。本文的預(yù)期是,這兩者對盟國責(zé)任分擔(dān)的影

響大致相同。

共同對手有以下幾個定義。第一,任何與美國及其盟友在外交政策上敵對的國家,

包括俄國(1950-89,2007-2010)、中國(1950-72,1996-2010)、古巴(1959-2010),

但是這排除了許多可以被當作共同對手的其他國家,因此本文也將冷戰(zhàn)時期任何蘇聯(lián)陣

營內(nèi)的國家編碼為共同對手。冷戰(zhàn)后由于美國的盟友缺乏一個總體的威脅,盟國對美國

的威脅更為多變,因此本文也將伊拉克、伊朗和朝鮮囊括在美國的對手之內(nèi)。第三,本文

設(shè)置了一個虛擬變量,如果盟友位于美國主要對手附近的重要海上咽喉要道 400 英里范

圍內(nèi),船只通過咽喉要道需要經(jīng)過盟友才能到達開放水域,則該變量取值為 1。在實踐

中,本文將重點放在冷戰(zhàn)期間包圍蘇聯(lián)海軍的咽喉要道上,以及冷戰(zhàn)后包圍俄羅斯和中

國海軍的咽喉要道上,因為在研究期間,在美國的競爭對手中,它們的力量投射能力是

獨一無二的。這并不意味著本文否認其他咽喉要道的戰(zhàn)略價值,而是這些“前線”咽喉要

道的價值在于,它們可以阻止對手從一開始就向更遠的咽喉要道投射力量。最后,本文

用與每個盟國毗鄰的盟國數(shù)量來衡量附近其他盟國的數(shù)量,無論是陸路還是四百英里或

更短的水路。

第105頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

99

4. 控制變量

本文首先控制了盟國的年度 GDP 增長率(以占上一年 GDP 的百分比來衡量),因

為我們預(yù)計,經(jīng)濟增長的國家會征收更多的稅收,用于國防開支,而經(jīng)濟衰退的國家則

會減少政府收入。第二,本文控制了盟友的經(jīng)濟大小,使用以 2005 年定值美元計算的盟

國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值來控制盟國的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模,現(xiàn)有文獻預(yù)計這將對盟國的國防責(zé)任產(chǎn)生積極

影響。第三,本文用民主的二元指標來控制盟友的政權(quán)類型。此外,在安全環(huán)境方面,作

者還考慮了每個盟國獨特的沖突環(huán)境,控制了盟國卷入的軍事化國家間爭端(militarized

interstate disputes, MIDs)的數(shù)量,并根據(jù) MIDs 的敵對程度進行加權(quán),還控制了盟國在外

交政策上與美國敵對對手的數(shù)量。其次,本文還加入了盟國是否擁有殖民帝國的虛擬變

量。第三,作者對每個盟國境內(nèi)的美軍人數(shù)進行了控制。最后,作者在一些模型中還加入

了盟國與美國的最小距離。

5. 模型說明

本文使用普通最小二乘法回歸(ordinary least squares regression)對模型進行估算,

并將標準誤差按國家分組。此外,本文還加入了地區(qū)固定效應(yīng),在某些情況下還加入了

年份固定效應(yīng)(year fixed effects),以考慮未觀察到的地區(qū)和時間變化。

6. 結(jié)果與穩(wěn)健性

圖 1 的結(jié)果為本文的假說提供了極強的支持。總的來說,H1b(與共同對手陸地毗鄰),

H2(鄰近海上咽喉要道)與 H3(替代的美國盟友)得到了有力的證實。研究結(jié)果一致表

明,與那些與對手陸地毗鄰的盟國相比,那些與敵國有共同對手但沒有陸地毗鄰的盟國,

或者根本沒有共同對手的盟國,國防開支占其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例更高。此外,靠近具

有戰(zhàn)略價值的海上咽喉要道的盟國以及周邊其他美國盟國較少的盟國的國防支出也較少。

H1a(沒有陸地毗鄰的共同對手)得到的支持較弱,僅在某些模型中具有在 0.1 水平上顯

著的正效應(yīng)。本文還對鄰近海上咽喉要道和美國的共同對手這兩個主要變量進行了廣義

和狹義編碼,以檢驗研究結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性,其結(jié)果與原有結(jié)果一致。

第106頁

100

圖 1 主要結(jié)果

注:(1)括號內(nèi)為按國家分類的標準誤差。FE:固定效應(yīng)。(2)p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

(3)因變量為各盟國的軍費開支(占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分比)。

四、探索因果機制:被拋棄的恐懼與內(nèi)部制衡

對評估本文理論的潛在挑戰(zhàn)在于假設(shè) 1a 與假設(shè) 1b 的預(yù)測與純基于盟國對外部威脅

認知的預(yù)測一致。為了把本文的理論與替代解釋區(qū)分開,本文首先運用了一個替代的因

變量,盟國對美國軍事存在在其國家的東道主支持(allies’host-nation support, HNS)。因

為這是盟國的東道主支持是對美國的補償,更有可能是美國壓力的結(jié)果而非內(nèi)部制衡的

第107頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

101

回應(yīng),如圖 2 和圖 3 所示,結(jié)果證明,與美國有共同對手并與其陸地毗鄰的國家會提供

更多的東道主支持。其次,本文提供了自 1960 年代到 1970 年代西德和日本的定性證據(jù)。

在案例選擇方面,本文盡量關(guān)注于威脅環(huán)境的變化,盡量控制其他的變化,兩國在大小,

政權(quán)類型、戰(zhàn)略價值、讓美國擔(dān)心軍國主義會卷土重來的二戰(zhàn)遺產(chǎn)方面比較相似,并且

都有比其他美國盟友更多的駐軍。選擇這一時期目的是因為當時美國盟友的經(jīng)濟在恢復(fù),

但與此同時美國的主導(dǎo)地位在削弱,越南戰(zhàn)爭限制了美國的資源,美國官員面臨國會要

求分擔(dān)更多責(zé)任的壓力。

1.西德

肯尼迪和約翰遜都想西德向北約作出強有力的貢獻。兩位總統(tǒng)都特別關(guān)注西德購買

美國的武器和軍事裝備。這起到兩個作用:(1)提高西德的軍事實力并且使得西德更加

依賴美國的武器 (2)減少美國國際收支逆差。兩位總統(tǒng)經(jīng)常威脅西德要把軍隊撤出西

德來給西德施加更大的責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力。約翰遜的繼任者尼克松則尋求西德更大的責(zé)任分

擔(dān)貢獻。這使得西德隊軍費開支急劇上升,從 1970 年占 GDP 的 3%上升到 1975 年的

4.6%。證據(jù)表明,西德的政策制定者認真對待美國的放棄威脅,并調(diào)整了他們的國防貢

獻以緩解美國的壓力。一位美國官員在 1969 年指出,歐洲人認為“他們的國防需求主要

是在他們需要提供什么來讓美國人做出承諾”,而在 1970 年,西德人要求“表明......最

低限度的歐洲防務(wù)貢獻“,以”限制(美國)預(yù)算和國會的壓力“。國務(wù)卿迪安·臘斯克

(Dean Rusk)在 1963 年 1 月告誡德國大使,地理環(huán)境使得西德冒險藐視美國非常危險。

2. 日本

美國對日本責(zé)任分擔(dān)的野心比對西德的野心要小得多,但它甚至難以實現(xiàn)其有限的

目標??夏岬虾图s翰遜時期的美國政策制定者擔(dān)心任何鼓勵增加日本軍事能力的嘗試可

能引發(fā)強烈反對和日本民族主義的滋長。因此,在整個 1960 年代和 1970 年代,日本的

軍費開支一直低于 GDP 的 1%。證據(jù)表明,與西德相比,日本有限的責(zé)任分擔(dān)反映了其

對被遺棄的恐懼相對溫和。這是因為由于與亞洲大陸的分離,日本政界的許多人認為他

們的安全幾乎沒有受到威脅,并且對美軍存在的必要性感到矛盾。

通過比較日本和西德的案例,作者發(fā)現(xiàn)西德的被拋棄的恐懼要高于日本,這一恐懼

導(dǎo)致了其防衛(wèi)努力,使得其回應(yīng)了更多美國責(zé)任分擔(dān)的壓力。

第108頁

102

圖 2 盟國對東道國支持的結(jié)果

注:因變量為每個盟國對東道國的支持(占 GDP 的百分比).

圖 3 盟國對東道國支持的結(jié)果

五、啟示與未來研究的路徑

本研究為今后的研究提供了許多路徑。首先,盡管本研究主要關(guān)注的是擔(dān)心被拋棄

的恐懼作為責(zé)任分擔(dān)差異來源的影響,但進一步的研究可以調(diào)查其他手段的有效性。這

些手段包括但不限于經(jīng)濟脅迫、誘導(dǎo)以及“點名羞辱”(naming and shaming)責(zé)任分擔(dān)

不足的國家。與此相關(guān)的一個研究方向可以關(guān)注盟國出于與討價還價或其他盟國的貢獻

無關(guān)的原因(如規(guī)范性考慮和價值觀)而為集體利益做出貢獻的意愿。此外,由于本文的

自變量每年都相對固定,因此還可以對庇護國何時真正希望其盟國為自己的防務(wù)承擔(dān)更

多責(zé)任,以及如何解釋隨時間推移而發(fā)生的變化進行更多研究。

第109頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

103

最后本文對美國大戰(zhàn)略的討論有以下啟示。本文認為如果美國官員希望盟國承擔(dān)更

多責(zé)任,那他們應(yīng)該對盟國對被拋棄的恐懼抱有濃厚興趣。作者認為即使美國不遺余力

地安撫盟國,其在影響盟國分擔(dān)負擔(dān)方面也并非束手無策,因為其可以有效地將安撫與

被拋棄的恐懼結(jié)合起來。因此,安撫盟友與鼓勵責(zé)任分擔(dān)之間的權(quán)衡并不是絕對的。但

是,美國的操作空間會被其不可控的因素所限制。并且美國還可以通過擴張聯(lián)盟前線,

把更大的盟國從共同對手隔絕開來,來削弱責(zé)任分擔(dān)(例如冷戰(zhàn)后的北約東擴)。此外,

共同的外部威脅并不能保證成功;盡管盟國對威脅的認知度提高可能會傾向于更多的責(zé)

任分擔(dān),但美國對威脅的認知度提高可能會降低盟國分擔(dān)更多責(zé)任的積極性。最近十年

的趨勢是美國權(quán)力的相對衰弱和中國的崛起。如果美國可用于對外承諾的資源減少,而

盟友又擔(dān)心中國的崛起,那么他們可能會愿意分擔(dān)一些責(zé)任。然而,美國成功的程度可

能會受到其自身威脅認知的影響,從而降低盟國責(zé)任分擔(dān)的積極性。

? 譯者評述

本文主要探討了大國對于盟國的責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力,在什么條件下能夠成功,什么條件

下不易成功。本文的主要觀點是,當盟國與庇護國有共同的對手時,盟國更容易分擔(dān)責(zé)

任。由于直接與敵國陸地接壤的盟友會更加脆弱,當盟國與對手共享陸地邊界時,盟國

更容易分擔(dān)責(zé)任。由于處于海上咽喉地位的盟國對于大國的價值更高,盟國如果位于其

庇護國對手周圍的海上咽喉附近,就不太可能分擔(dān)責(zé)任。最后,當盟國的鄰國中美國盟

友較少時,盟國分擔(dān)責(zé)任的可能性較小。

本文運用了定性加定量的混合研究方法。先是通過細致的統(tǒng)計分析,驗證了本文的

三個假設(shè),證明了本文的結(jié)論的外部有效性(external validity)。再通過對日本和西德的

兩個最相似案例,探討了不同程度的被拋棄威脅對于西德和日本應(yīng)對美國責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力

的影響,檢驗了本文理論的因果機制,展示了理論的內(nèi)部有效性(internal validity)。本

文最大的的貢獻就是填補了既有研究的一個重要空白,即大國壓力對于盟友責(zé)任分擔(dān)的

作用機制,以及成功條件。

雖然本文極具學(xué)術(shù)貢獻,但也不是沒有不足。第一,本文對于怎樣衡量大國對盟友

責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力的成功與否并沒有一個明確的標準。第二,雖然作者指出了庇護國的杠桿

第110頁

104

可以通過三種方式來塑造聯(lián)盟的責(zé)任分擔(dān),但并沒有探討在特定情況下哪種因果路徑會

發(fā)生作用。第三,在案例檢驗方面,盡管作者通過選擇日本和西德兩個相似的案例來控

制變量,但在案例檢驗的環(huán)節(jié)方面,作者缺乏對于替代解釋的進一步討論,來排出掉可

能的自變量。

除了作者在文章末尾所指出的未來的研究方向以外,譯者認為還可以進一步探討以

下研究方向。第一,為什么有的時候盟友愿意分擔(dān)責(zé)任,有的時候不愿意分擔(dān)責(zé)任。第

二,為什么美國擔(dān)心責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力會引發(fā)日本的民族主義滋長,而不擔(dān)心德國的民族主

義,什么情況下大國會擔(dān)心責(zé)任壓力分擔(dān)會導(dǎo)致對象國國內(nèi)的強烈反對,什么情況下不

擔(dān)心。第三,把責(zé)任分擔(dān)壓力的水平作為自變量,研究其對于包括盟友之間的緊密程度

等其他因變量的影響。

【校對審核:李琳潔 鄧浩然 丁偉航】

【責(zé)任編輯:嚴瑾怡】

第111頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

105

新刊速遞

《國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)評論》 ( Review of International Political

Economy)

Review of International Political Economy,Vol.30, No.6, 202(下)

1. 飛揚的旗幟:國籍、主權(quán)與航空自由化(Flying flags: nationality, sovereignty, and

airline liberalization)

Colin Chia,加拿大社會科學(xué)與人文研究委員會(SSHRC)的博士后研究員

【摘要】國籍是國際航空公司治理體系的一個關(guān)鍵要素,而航空業(yè)是經(jīng)濟全球化的主要手段。作者認

為,經(jīng)濟民族主義動機驅(qū)使國家利用國際經(jīng)濟流動來支持主權(quán)和國家認同。經(jīng)濟民族主義被概念化為

一種表現(xiàn)現(xiàn)象,描述了國家如何通過促進和控制經(jīng)濟實踐來使主權(quán)和民族成為現(xiàn)實。采用混合方法論,

作者統(tǒng)計分析了一個可觀察的推論,即文化差異較大的雙邊對有更不自由的雙邊航空服務(wù)協(xié)議。接著,

作者通過分析性敘述研究了加拿大和歐盟如何應(yīng)對海灣國家航空公司的快速增長和雄心勃勃的擴張,

這些航空公司本身就是經(jīng)濟民族主義項目。加拿大限制了通行權(quán),而歐盟則通過執(zhí)行公平競爭概念和

公開審查外國對歐盟航空公司的所有權(quán)和控制來施加控制。本文的一個關(guān)鍵貢獻是探討貿(mào)易政策是如

何受到象征性政治的驅(qū)動的,以及提出物質(zhì)收益是為了支持國家認同和主權(quán)表演而追求的可能性。這

對于其他被認為對主權(quán)有影響的行業(yè)也有進一步的應(yīng)用。

【原文】Nationality is a crucial element of the regime governing international airlines, the industry which is

a key means of economic globalization. I argue that economic nationalist motives drive states to harness

international economic flows to support sovereignty and national identity. Economic nationalism is

conceptualized as a performative phenomenon, describing how states make sovereignty and nations real by

《國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)評論》(Review of International Political

Economy)是一份涵蓋國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究的雙月刊同行

評審學(xué)術(shù)期刊。其成立于 1999 年,由 Routledge 出版。本

刊是國際政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域的主流期刊之一,與《新政治經(jīng)

濟學(xué)》(New Political Economy)并列。2022 年該刊影響因

子為 4.3。

第112頁

106

enabling and controlling economic practices. Using a mixed-methods approach, I statistically examine an

observable implication that dyads which have greater cultural difference tend to have less liberal bilateral air

services agreements. I then investigate through analytic narratives how Canada and the EU dealt with the rapid

growth and ambitious expansion of the Gulf state airlines, which were themselves economic nationalist

projects. Canada restricted traffic rights while the EU has exerted control by enforcing concepts of fair

competition and publicizing its scrutiny of foreign ownership and control over EU airlines. A key contribution

of this article is to explore how trade policy is driven by symbolic politics, and to raise the possibility that

material gains are pursed to support performances of national identity and sovereignty. This has further

applications to other sectors with perceived implications for sovereignty.

2. 誰在何時投票支持自由貿(mào)易?地緣政治作為自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定立法偏好的來源(Who

votes for free trade and when? Geopolitics as the source of legislative preferences on free

trade agreements)

Sung Eun Kim,韓國大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際關(guān)系副教授

Joonseok Yang,韓國首爾成均館大學(xué)政治學(xué)與外交系助理教授

【摘要】為什么立法者支持某些自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定而反對其他協(xié)定?盡管對自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的立法支持存在

廣泛的變化,但立法者的不同偏好在文獻中鮮有關(guān)注,這些文獻主要集中于立法者和個別選民的一般

貿(mào)易政策偏好。我們將地緣政治因素作為特定自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定立法偏好的關(guān)鍵來源。使用美國眾議院代

表就所有主要的與自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定相關(guān)的議案的投票記錄,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在貿(mào)易伙伴的地緣戰(zhàn)略重要性對

于投票支持貿(mào)易協(xié)定有著實質(zhì)性的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn),當考慮與盟友或利益密切相關(guān)的國家的貿(mào)易協(xié)定

時,立法者對其選民的經(jīng)濟利益的敏感度降低。這凸顯了審視貿(mào)易合作的安全外部性的重要性。

【原文】Why do legislators support some free trade agreements but oppose others? Despite a wide variation

in legislative support for free trade agreements, the heterogeneous preferences of legislators have received

little attention in the literature, which largely focuses on general trade policy preferences of legislators and

individual voters. We bring in geopolitical factors as a key source of legislative preferences on specific free

trade agreements. Using voting records of the U.S. House representatives on all major bills related to free trade

agreements, we find that the geostrategic importance of potential trading partner has a substantial effect on

voting for trade agreements. We find that legislators become less sensitive to their constituents’ economic

interests when considering trade agreements with allies or countries with closely aligned interests. This

highlights the importance of examining security externalities of trade cooperation.

3. 作為保護主義的法律傳播:美國推廣反托拉斯法的案例(Legal diffusion as

protectionism: the case of the U.S. promotion of antitrust laws)

Melike Arslan,德國馬克斯普朗克社會研究所博士后

【摘要】以往關(guān)于反托拉斯(競爭)法在全球范圍內(nèi)的傳播與協(xié)調(diào)的研究主要集中在新通過或改革本

國法律的國家的動機上。本文則以美國為中心,探究在國際上推廣這些法律的強國的動機。文章發(fā)現(xiàn),

貿(mào)易保護主義——而非全球主義——的利益和理念促使美國在 20 世紀 90 年代推廣強有力的國際反

第113頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

107

托拉斯規(guī)范。通過分析 20 世紀 80 年代的國會文件和辯論,研究表明,美國進口競爭公司將外國產(chǎn)業(yè)

政策誣蔑為卡特爾化,從而使其在自由市場和國內(nèi)反托拉斯法的主導(dǎo)框架內(nèi)對貿(mào)易保護的要求合法化。

這種說法在國會的政治影響力推動了 1988 年《貿(mào)易法》的制定和 1990 年與日本的貿(mào)易談判,使美國

在 20 世紀 90 年代正式傾向于采用強有力的國際反托拉斯規(guī)范。具有諷刺意味的是,這些研究結(jié)果突

出表明,“反市場”的原因也可以促使“支持市場”的規(guī)范傳播。

【原文】Prior research on the global diffusion and harmonization of antitrust (competition) laws mainly

focused on the motivations of countries newly adopting or reforming their national laws. This article instead

inquires about the motivations of the powerful states promoting these laws internationally, primarily focusing

on the United States. It finds that trade protectionist —rather than globalist— interests and ideas prompted the

United States’ promotion of strong international antitrust norms in the 1990s. Analyzing Congressional

documents and debates in the 1980s, it shows that American import-competing companies framed foreign

industrial policies as cartelization to legitimize their demands for trade protections within the dominant

framework of free markets and domestic antitrust laws. The political salience of this narrative in Congress

contributed to the preparation of the 1988 Trade Laws and the 1990 trade negotiations with Japan, which

formalized the United States’ preference for strong international antitrust norms during the 1990s. These

findings highlight that, ironically, ‘a(chǎn)nti-market’ reasons can also motivate ‘pro-market’ norm diffusion.

4. 改革進程中咨詢公司的政治經(jīng)濟學(xué):世界衛(wèi)生組織的案例(The political economy of

consulting firms in reform processes: the case of the World Health Organization)

Julian Eckl,瑞士圣加侖大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士

Tine Hanrieder,倫敦政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)院教授

【摘要】現(xiàn)有研究將咨詢公司在政府間組織(IGOs)中的興起主要解釋為管理主義在全球蔓延的證據(jù)。

本文強調(diào),咨詢公司不僅僅是商業(yè)性世界文化規(guī)范的載體,也是有爭議的政府間組織政治和治理的一

部分。本文揭開了咨詢業(yè)的黑匣子,重構(gòu)了咨詢公司是如何受聘并活躍在政府間組織中的。通過分析

世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)的經(jīng)驗,本文展示了政府間組織是如何非正式地向咨詢公司(及其資助者)“開

放”的,本文還調(diào)查了這些特權(quán)在實踐中的后果。咨詢公司將各種聲音和意見(包括他們自己的意見)

納入一攬子改革方案,宣傳某些內(nèi)容,并采取自我放棄的做法,從而削弱了對利益攸關(guān)方的責(zé)任。對

于被排除在咨詢協(xié)議之外或在咨詢實踐中被邊緣化的行動者來說,咨詢顧問的核心地位可能會產(chǎn)生削

弱其權(quán)力的影響。本文通過放大 2015 年世衛(wèi)組織減瘧伙伴關(guān)系以顧問為中介的改革,來說明本文的

一般性討論。本文的分析基于原始文件、關(guān)鍵信息提供者訪談、非正式談話和參與觀察。

【原文】Existing research interprets the rise of consulting firms in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)

primarily as evidence of the global spread of managerialism. We highlight that consultants are not merely

carriers of business-like world cultural norms, but also part of contentious IGO politics and governance. We

unpack the consulting black box and reconstruct how consulting firms are hired and active in IGOs. Analyzing

the experiences of the World Health Organization (WHO), we show how IGOs have been informally ‘opened

up’ to consulting firms (and to their funders) and we investigate what the consequences of their privileged

access are in practice. Consultants curate voices and input (including their own) into reform packages, promote

第114頁

108

certain contents, and engage in self-effacement practices that undermine accountability to stakeholders. The

pivotal position of the consultants can have a disempowering effect on actors excluded from the consulting

agreement or marginalized through consulting practices. We illustrate our general discussion by zooming in

on the consultant-mediated reform of WHO’s Roll Back Malaria partnership in 2015. Our analysis is based on

primary documents, key informant interviews, informal conversations, and participant observation.

5. 為能源未來融資:加拿大管道資產(chǎn)化的爭議(Financing energy futures: the contested

assetization of pipelines in Canada)

Amy Janzwood,加拿大麥吉爾大學(xué)副教授

Kate J Neville,加拿大多倫多大學(xué)副教授

Sarah J. Martin,加拿大紐芬蘭紀念大學(xué)副教授

【摘要】管道是一項技術(shù)和政治任務(wù),同時也是一項經(jīng)濟壯舉。當管道長期處于不確定狀態(tài)時——尚

未建成且尚未取消——其結(jié)果似乎對任何人都沒有好處:支持者面臨著成本超支和監(jiān)管之爭,而可能

受影響的社區(qū)仍然受到干擾和剝奪的威脅。既然有如此這些負面結(jié)果,為什么此類項目會長期處于邊

緣狀態(tài)?為了回答這個問題,本文對加拿大兩個有爭議的石油管道提案——北方門戶管道和跨山擴建

項目——進行了研究。在這兩個案例中,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)這些管道復(fù)雜多變的財務(wù)安排產(chǎn)生了本文所說的“有

爭議的資產(chǎn)化”。這一過程通過三個相互交織的動態(tài)因素進行:時間性(時間的坍塌和擴展)、市場估

值(特定形式的知識和專業(yè)實踐)以及金融工具(合同、股權(quán)和其他金融安排)。支持者創(chuàng)造了復(fù)雜、

多層次的面向未來的可投資資產(chǎn),調(diào)解了企業(yè)風(fēng)險;與此同時,反對者瞄準了多種監(jiān)管渠道,挑戰(zhàn)了

估值體系,并強調(diào)了未來的社會和生態(tài)成本。本文發(fā)現(xiàn),盡管戰(zhàn)略性地使用這些動力會產(chǎn)生相互矛盾

的后果,但總體而言,這些金融流程強化了企業(yè)權(quán)力,延長了以化石燃料為基礎(chǔ)的能源未來。

【原文】Pipelines are technological and political undertakings, but also financial feats. When pipelines are in

protracted states of uncertainty—not yet built, but not yet canceled—the outcomes seem not to benefit anyone:

proponents face cost overruns and regulatory battles, while potentially affected communities remain under

threat of disruption and dispossession. In light of these negative outcomes, why do such projects remain in

liminal states for so long? To answer this question, we interrogate two contested oil pipeline proposals in

Canada, the Northern Gateway Pipelines and the Trans Mountain Expansion projects. In both cases, we find

that the complex and shifting financial arrangements for these pipelines produced what we call ‘contested

assetization.’ This process operates through three intertwined dynamics: temporality (collapsing and

expanding time), market valuation (specific forms of knowledge and professional practices), and financial

tools (contractual, equity, and other financial arrangements). Proponents create complex, layered futureoriented investable assets, mediating corporate risk; at the same time, opponents target multiple regulatory

venues, challenge valuation systems, and highlight future social and ecological costs. We find that although

the strategic use of these dynamics has contradictory consequences, overall, these financial processes reinforce

corporate power, prolonging fossil fuel-based energy futures.

第115頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

109

6. 宏觀經(jīng)濟監(jiān)督的思路:全球和區(qū)域金融組織國別報告的比較文本分析(Ideas for

macroeconomic surveillance: a comparative text analysis of country reports by global and

regional financial organizations)

Motoshi Suzuki,日本京都大學(xué)公共事務(wù)系教授

【摘要】全球金融秩序中的機構(gòu)激增令人擔(dān)憂全球和區(qū)域組織之間的協(xié)調(diào)失靈以及由此造成的混亂和

沖突。其中一個令人擔(dān)憂的領(lǐng)域是宏觀經(jīng)濟監(jiān)督,這對于發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機至關(guān)重要,因為這項任務(wù)存在

機構(gòu)重疊。現(xiàn)有文獻并沒有提供關(guān)于這種協(xié)調(diào)的程度和決定因素的系統(tǒng)證據(jù)。為了填補這一空白,本

文比較了國際貨幣基金組織和東亞地區(qū)的監(jiān)督機構(gòu),即“東盟+3”宏觀經(jīng)濟研究辦公室,將其國家報告

作為對東亞國家的監(jiān)督成果。本文進行了基于詞典的文本分析,以評估有關(guān)特定經(jīng)濟理念的關(guān)鍵術(shù)語

的使用模式。結(jié)果表明,各國報告之間存在大量相似之處,但也存在一些殘余差異。這些結(jié)果表明,

他們通過使用一般和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟理念進行多方面的監(jiān)督,在焦點效應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上進行非正式協(xié)調(diào)。這些研

究還表明,非正式性允許他們在決定一致行動和自主行動的政策類別時行使自由裁量權(quán),從而為自主

——協(xié)調(diào)兩難問題提供了有效的解決方案。通過這些討論,本文的研究為研究人員和成員國政府提出

了重要的啟示。

【原文】Institutional proliferation in the global financial order raises concerns about a failure of coordination

between global and regional organizations and the resulting confusion and conflict. One area of concern is

macroeconomic surveillance, which is crucial for the detection of financial crises as a task subject to

institutional overlaps. The existing literature does not provide systematic evidence on the extent and

determinants of such coordination. To fill this lacuna, we compare the International Monetary Fund and the

ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office, a surveillance agency in East Asia, using their country

reports as outcomes of their surveillance of East Asian countries. We conduct dictionary-based text analyses

to assess the usage patterns of key terms concerning particular economic ideas. The results demonstrate

substantial similarities between the country reports as well as some residual differences. These findings

suggest that they engage in informal coordination based on focal-point effects through the use of general and

regional economic ideas for multifaceted surveillance. They further suggest that informality permits them to

exercise discretion in deciding policy categories for aligned and autonomous actions, thereby providing an

efficient solution to an autonomy–coordination dilemma. Through these discussions, our study suggests

important implications for researchers and member governments.

7. 日內(nèi)瓦效應(yīng):官員的職位影響他們對世貿(mào)組織優(yōu)先事項的立場(The Geneva effect:

where officials sit influences where they stand on WTO priorities)

Bernard Hoekman,意大利佛羅倫薩歐洲大學(xué)研究所羅伯特舒曼高級研究中心全球經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授兼主任

Robert Wolfe,加拿大皇后大學(xué)政策研究學(xué)院的名譽教授

【摘要】駐日內(nèi)瓦的成員國代表和駐各國首都的官員在世界貿(mào)易組織合作的優(yōu)先事項上意見一致嗎?

通過對貿(mào)易政策官員進行原創(chuàng)性調(diào)查,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)在日內(nèi)瓦代表本國的受訪者與駐各國首都的官員在機

構(gòu)改革和政策問題上的優(yōu)先順序往往大相徑庭。本文假設(shè),這種“日內(nèi)瓦效應(yīng)”反映了首都的官僚主義

能力和駐日內(nèi)瓦官員的自主性,而對于經(jīng)合組織成員國的官員來說,這種效應(yīng)應(yīng)該較小,因為他們在

第116頁

110

世貿(mào)組織之外進行了廣泛的互動,以確定良好的監(jiān)管政策并解決共同關(guān)心的貿(mào)易問題。實證分析支持

了這些假設(shè),但也揭示了經(jīng)合組織成員國駐日內(nèi)瓦官員和駐首都官員在具體問題的優(yōu)先次序上的差異。

結(jié)果表明,國際合作的前景可能不僅受到各國之間反映物質(zhì)利益和國內(nèi)政治經(jīng)濟驅(qū)動因素的眾所周知

的差異的影響,而且還受到在國際組織中代表各國的官員和駐首都官員對問題的相對優(yōu)先次序的差異

的影響。

【原文】Do representatives of member states in Geneva and officials based in capitals agree on priorities for

cooperation in the World Trade Organization? Exploiting an original survey of trade policy officials, we find

that respondents representing their countries in Geneva often accord substantially different priorities to

institutional reform and policy issues than officials based in capitals. We hypothesize that this ‘Geneva effect’

reflects bureaucratic capacity in capitals and autonomy of Geneva-based officials, and that the effect should

be smaller for officials from OECD member states, given extensive interaction outside the WTO to define

good regulatory policies and address trade issues of common concern. Empirical analysis supports these

hypotheses but also reveals differences in prioritization between Geneva and capital-based officials from

OECD countries for specific issues. The results suggest that the prospects of international cooperation may be

influenced not only by well-understood differences between states that reflect material interests and domestic

political economy drivers, but by differences in relative priorities accorded to issues by officials representing

states in international organizations and officials based in capitals.

8. 為誰發(fā)展?美國國際開發(fā)署在烏克蘭頓巴斯的案例(Development for whom? The

case of USAID in Ukraine’s Donbas)

Oleksandr Svitych,印度金達爾全球大學(xué)副教授

【摘要】這篇評論調(diào)查了國際非政府組織、捐助機構(gòu)及其發(fā)展承包商之間的聯(lián)系,以此作為烏克蘭東

部資本主義積累和新自由主義合理性的框架。隨著 2014 年與俄羅斯爆發(fā)混合戰(zhàn)爭(八年后演變?yōu)槿?/p>

面戰(zhàn)爭),頓巴斯地區(qū)的政府控制區(qū)參與了多個發(fā)展項目。這篇評論通過關(guān)注美國國際開發(fā)署(USAID)

在重組當?shù)亟?jīng)濟和生計方面的作用,對此類發(fā)展政策進行了批判性研究。本文將重點放在美國國際開

發(fā)署的“經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)活動”(ERA)上,以證明捐助項目是資本主義積累(對發(fā)展承包商而言)和新自由

主義責(zé)任化(對受沖突影響的公民而言)的機制。分析指出了烏克蘭頓巴斯地區(qū)的發(fā)展不平衡和(新)

自由主義和平謬誤。同時,它也證實了全球政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)的一個大趨勢,即用關(guān)于脆弱性、復(fù)原力和婦

女賦權(quán)的自由主義論述來掩蓋發(fā)展資本的利益。

【原文】This commentary investigates the linkages between international NGOs, donor agencies, and their

development contractors as a framework for capitalist accumulation and neoliberal rationality in eastern

Ukraine. With the onset of a hybrid war with Russia in 2014 – turned into a full-scale war eight years later –

the government-controlled areas of the Donbas region have participated in multiple development programs.

This commentary critically examines such development policies by focusing on the role of USAID in

restructuring local economies and livelihoods. I focus on the USAID Economic Resilience Activity (ERA) to

demonstrate that donor programs serve as mechanisms of capitalist accumulation (for development contractors)

and neoliberal responsibilization (for conflict-affected citizens). The analysis points to uneven development

第117頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

111

and the (neo)liberal peace fallacy in Ukraine’s Donbas. At the same time, it corroborates a wider trend in

global political economy to obfuscate the interests of development capital with liberal discourses of

vulnerability, resilience, and women’s empowerment.

9. 全球價值和財富的糾纏鏈(Entangled chains of global value and wealth)

Jennifer Bair,美國弗吉尼亞大學(xué)社會學(xué)系教授

Stefano Ponte,丹麥哥本哈根商學(xué)院商業(yè)與政治系教授

Leonard Seabrooke,丹麥哥本哈根商學(xué)院國際政治經(jīng)濟與經(jīng)濟社會學(xué)系教授

Duncan Wigan,丹麥哥本哈根商學(xué)院國際組織系副教授

【摘要】近幾十年來,跨國企業(yè)開發(fā)出了通過全球價值鏈(GVCs)重組生產(chǎn)和貿(mào)易,以及通過全球財

富鏈(GWCs)管理資產(chǎn)和負債的方法。這種共同演變使得人們能夠通過金融和法律技術(shù)過度榨取勞

動力和自然資源,從而將價值創(chuàng)造與財富積累糾纏在一起。雖然學(xué)者們已分別承認全球價值鏈和全球

供應(yīng)鏈在產(chǎn)生分配結(jié)果方面所發(fā)揮的作用,但生產(chǎn)、貿(mào)易、金融和法律之間的糾葛現(xiàn)在已非常廣泛,

本文需要一個更清晰的分析視角來理解它們之間的相互關(guān)系。為了找到這樣一個視角,本文提出了一

個以產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈糾葛為重點的研究議程。本文認為,全球價值鏈和全球供應(yīng)鏈不是由企業(yè)作為獨立的甚至

是有序的過程來管理的,而是以值得仔細研究的方式交織在一起的價值創(chuàng)造和財富積累戰(zhàn)略。本文從

兩個維度建立了一個分析糾纏鏈的框架:1)無形資產(chǎn)與有形資產(chǎn)的相對重要性;2)企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略對價值

創(chuàng)造或財富積累活動的導(dǎo)向。通過行業(yè)層面的實例,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)全球價值鏈與全球供應(yīng)鏈之間的糾葛有

一個普遍趨勢,即利用無形價值和資產(chǎn)進行財富積累的活動。本文還注意到,勞工和公民行動主義如

何能夠凸顯現(xiàn)有監(jiān)管和財政體系的失誤,并干預(yù)糾纏在一起的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上的分配斗爭。

【原文】In recent decades multinational enterprises have developed ways to reorganize production and trade

through Global Value Chains (GVCs), and to manage assets and liabilities through Global Wealth Chains

(GWCs). This co-evolution has permitted the hyper-extraction of labor and natural resources through financial

and legal technologies, entangling value creation and wealth accumulation. While scholars have separately

acknowledged the role that GVCs and GWCs play in generating distributional outcomes, entanglements of

production, trade, finance, and law are now so extensive that we need a sharper analytical lens to understand

their interrelations. In pursuit of such a lens, we propose a research agenda focused on chain entanglements.

We argue that GVCs and GWCs are not governed by firms as separate or even sequenced processes, but rather

that value creation and wealth accumulation strategies are imbricated in ways that merit careful study. We

develop a framework for analyzing entangled chains based on two dimensions: 1) the relative importance of

intangible versus tangible assets; and 2) the orientation of firm strategy towards value creation or wealth

accumulation activities. Drawing on sector-level examples, we see a general trend in GVC-GWC

entanglements towards activities that leverage intangible value and assets for wealth accumulation. We also

note how labor and civic activism can highlight the failures of extant regulatory and fiscal systems and

intervene on distributional struggles along entangled chains.

第118頁

112

【編譯:朱嘉成 崔育淶】

【責(zé)任編輯:封欣怡】

《國際安全》(International Security)

International Security, Vol.48, No.2, 2023

1. 種族主義,刻板印象和戰(zhàn)爭(Racism, Stereotypes, and War)

Jonathan Mercer,美國華盛頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授。

【摘要】種族主義有系統(tǒng)地扭曲了政策制定者對他們的盟友和相對于對手的實力、利益和決心的分析,

這可能導(dǎo)致在戰(zhàn)爭與和平方面做出代價高昂的選擇。當政策制定者持有種族主義的信念時,就像在日

俄戰(zhàn)爭(1904-1905)中一樣,他們的信念會影響他們解釋和預(yù)測他們盟友和對手的行為的方式。對種

族主義刻板印象的依賴會導(dǎo)致政策制定者不準確的評估。一份對刻板印象、聲譽和偏執(zhí)的研究表明,

聲譽可以輕易的轉(zhuǎn)化成刻板印象:這會使任何根據(jù)他人聲譽做出政策決策或鼓勵政策制定者這樣做的

人感到不安。國際安全學(xué)者顯然很大程度上忽視了種族主義的作用,假設(shè)政策制定者會作出理性的選

擇。研究證明這種假設(shè)是錯誤的。

【原文】Racism systematically distorts policymakers’ analyses of their allies’ and adversaries’ capabilities,

interests, and resolve, potentially leading to costly choices regarding war and peace. When policymakers hold

racist beliefs, as they did in the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905), their beliefs influence how they explain

and predict their allies’ and adversaries’ behaviors. Reliance on racist stereotypes leads policymakers to

inaccurate assessments. An analysis of the relationship between stereotypes, reputations, and bigotry indicates

that reputations easily become stereotypes—which is discomforting to anyone who bases policy decisions on

another's reputation or encourages policymakers to do so. International security scholars have largely

overlooked the role of racism, assuming rational choices on the part of policymakers. Research demonstrates

that this assumption is wrong.

2. 干預(yù)者陷阱:麥金利,菲律賓和放手的困難(The Meddler's Trap:McKinley, the

Philippines, and the Difficulty of Letting Go)

Aroop Mukharji,美國參議院外交關(guān)系委員會國際事務(wù)研究員

《國際安全》(International Security)發(fā)表有關(guān)當代安全

問題的全面清晰、文獻翔實的文章。文章涉及戰(zhàn)爭與和平

的傳統(tǒng)主題,以及安全的最新層面,包括環(huán)境、人口、人

道主義問題、跨國網(wǎng)絡(luò)和新興技術(shù)。40 多年來,《國際安

全》界定了美國國家安全政策的爭論,并為國際安全事務(wù)

的研究制定了議程。2021 年該期刊的影響因子為 7.179,

在國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 2。

第119頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

113

【摘要】從越南到阿富汗,美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在擺脫遠程軍事干預(yù)方面一直存在巨大困難。威廉·麥金利在

1898 年吞并菲律賓的決定揭示了原因:這源于一個“干預(yù)者陷阱”的現(xiàn)象。干預(yù)者陷阱指的是一種自我

糾纏的情況,即領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人通過軍事干預(yù)無意中制造了問題,并認為自己可以解決,且因為最初干預(yù)的緣

故,從而更加重視解決新問題。這種過度的評估是由于一種被稱作稟賦效應(yīng)的認知偏差:個體傾向于

高估他們自己擁有的物品。軍事干預(yù)會導(dǎo)致對他國領(lǐng)土的所有權(quán)感,這就觸發(fā)了稟賦效應(yīng)。1809 年,

美國在馬尼拉的戰(zhàn)爭中取得勝利后,麥金利懷疑菲律賓的自治能力,相信美國從菲律賓撤出將會導(dǎo)致

混亂和大國戰(zhàn)爭,同時他相信美國的治理可以阻止這種局面的產(chǎn)生。因為麥金利已經(jīng)在菲律賓部署了

軍隊,他會對這些軍隊產(chǎn)生所有權(quán),同時這種稟賦效應(yīng)會助漲他對菲律賓群島的評估。這些相互強化

的信念產(chǎn)生了干預(yù)者陷阱,成為美國在西半球之外最大規(guī)模的吞并。

【原文】From Vietnam to Afghanistan, U.S. leaders have had great difficulty disentangling the United States

from faraway military interventions. William McKinley's 1898 decision to annex the Philippines reveals why,

through a phenomenon called the “meddler's trap.” The meddler's trap denotes a situation of self-entanglement,

whereby a leader inadvertently creates a problem through military intervention, feels they can solve it, and

values solving the new problem more because of the initial intervention. The inflated valuation is driven by a

cognitive bias called the endowment effect, according to which individuals tend to overvalue goods they feel

they own. A military intervention causes a feeling of ownership of the foreign territory, triggering the

endowment effect. Following the U.S. victory in Manila during the War of 1898, McKinley doubted Filipino

civilizational capacity to self-govern, believed that a U.S. departure from the Philippines would cause chaos

and great power war, and believed that U.S. governance could forestall that outcome. Because he had already

deployed troops to the Philippines, McKinley also felt ownership over them, and this endowment effect

inflated his valuation of the archipelago. Together, these mutually reinforcing beliefs produced the meddler's

trap and the United States’ largest annexation outside its hemisphere.

3. 種族化和國際安全(Racialization and International Security)

Richard W. Maass,美國歐道明大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】種族化—即將種族身份和影響融入社會和政治現(xiàn)象的過程;是一種權(quán)力的主張,一種對所謂

固有差異的主張,這種差異已經(jīng)滲透到現(xiàn)代外交、秩序和暴力中。盡管該領(lǐng)域一直對權(quán)力保持興趣,

但美國的國際安全研究在長達數(shù)十年對國際沖突和合作、核擴散、權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移、單極化、內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、恐怖主

義、國際秩序、大戰(zhàn)略等的辯論中,很大程度上遺漏了種族這一元素。一個新的框架奠定了概念基礎(chǔ),

將相關(guān)的文獻和在國際安全的主要研究聯(lián)系起來,培養(yǎng)跨學(xué)科對話,同時為考慮公開的和內(nèi)嵌的種族

化如何塑造國際安全的研究和實踐開辟了有前景的道路。對整合種族化到現(xiàn)有和新的研究議程中的若

干研究設(shè)計挑戰(zhàn)的討論幫助學(xué)者重新思考他們?nèi)绾螌ΥN族與安全問題。除了使教學(xué)本身多樣化之外,

揭示和反擊固有的偏見對確定可替代的觀點是如何被邊緣化以及最終發(fā)展更好的理論是至關(guān)重要的。

【原文】Racialization—the processes that infuse social and political phenomena with racial identities and

implications—is an assertion of power, a claim of purportedly inherent differences that has saturated modern

diplomacy, order, and violence. Despite the field's consistent interest in power, international security studies

in the United States largely omitted racial dynamics from decades of debates about international conflict and

cooperation, nuclear proliferation, power transitions, unipolarity, civil wars, terrorism, international order,

grand strategy, and other subjects. A new framework lays conceptual bedrock, links relevant literatures to

major research agendas in international security, cultivates interdisciplinary dialogues, and charts promising

paths to consider how overt and embedded racialization shape the study and practice of international security.

A discussion of several research design challenges for integrating racialization into existing and new research

第120頁

114

agendas helps scholars reconsider how they approach questions of race and security. Beyond diversifying the

professoriat itself, revealing and countering embedded biases are crucial to determine how alternative ideas

have been marginalized, and, ultimately, to develop better theories.

4. “沒有硝煙的戰(zhàn)爭”:全球供應(yīng)鏈,權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移和經(jīng)濟方略(“Wars without Gun

Smoke”: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft)

Ling S. Chen,美國約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)高級國際研究學(xué)院助理教授

Miles M. Evers,美國康涅狄格大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】傳統(tǒng)觀點認為,沖突更有可能在衰落和崛起的大國間進行權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移時發(fā)生。全球供應(yīng)鏈的擴

散為發(fā)動這些沖突的大國提供了新的經(jīng)濟武器,但是構(gòu)建全球供應(yīng)鏈的企業(yè)可能會使它們更難或者更

容易的這樣做。一種關(guān)于企業(yè)和國家間關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)性的理論展現(xiàn)了權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移如何影響一個國家行使經(jīng)

濟方略的能力。隨著主導(dǎo)大國和崛起大國接近平等,它們面臨著利用經(jīng)濟方略來實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟脫鉤的結(jié)構(gòu)

性激勵。由此產(chǎn)生的對企業(yè)利潤的威脅改變了企業(yè)和國家間關(guān)系:在主導(dǎo)大國中的高價值企業(yè)趨向于

反對其國家對經(jīng)濟方略的運用,然而在崛起中國家的低價值企業(yè)趨向于和國家使用的經(jīng)濟方略相協(xié)作。

1890 年到 1914 年的英德權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移和自 1990 年以來的美中權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移闡明了這一理論。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)改變

了關(guān)于在現(xiàn)代大國競爭中使用經(jīng)濟方略的學(xué)術(shù)爭論,并對將供應(yīng)鏈武器化以應(yīng)對中國等新興大國具有

政策意義。

【原文】Conventional wisdom holds that conflict is highly likely during a power transition between declining

and rising powers. The spread of global supply chains has provided new economic weapons for great powers

waging these conflicts, but the businesses that constitute global supply chains can make it harder or easier for

them to do so. A structural theory of business-state relations shows how power transitions affect a state's ability

to exercise economic statecraft. As a dominant power and a rising power approach parity, they face structural

incentives to use economic statecraft to decouple their economies. The resulting threat to businesses’ profits

changes business-state relations: high-value businesses within the dominant power tend to oppose their state's

use of economic statecraft, whereas low-value businesses within the rising power tend to cooperate with their

state's use of economic statecraft. The Anglo-German power transition from 1890 to 1914 and the U.S.-China

power transition since 1990 illustrate the theory. The findings shift scholarly debates on the use of economic

statecraft in modern great power competition and have policy implications for weaponizing supply chains

against rising powers like China.

【編譯:王涵婧】

【責(zé)任編輯:封欣怡】

第121頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

115

《國際關(guān)系》(International Relations)

International Relations,Vol. 37, No. 4, 2023

1. 結(jié)束沖突的組合:流行文化、全球政治和戰(zhàn)爭的結(jié)束(Assemblages of conflict

termination: popular culture, global politics and the end of wars)

Cahir O’Doherty,荷蘭格羅寧根大學(xué)國際關(guān)系講師

【摘要】戰(zhàn)爭如何結(jié)束的問題一直具有重要意義,尤其是在反恐戰(zhàn)爭持續(xù)進行的背景下。傳統(tǒng)上,國

際關(guān)系學(xué)界歷來通過理性選擇理論、邏輯建模和博弈論來探討這一問題。這些方法越來越不適合描述

現(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)爭,尤其無法把握反恐戰(zhàn)爭的復(fù)雜性和模糊性。這些戰(zhàn)爭中的含混不清往往與政治和公眾希望

在戰(zhàn)爭中取得決定性勝利的愿望相悖。本文以戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束研究(War Termination Studies)中近期的重要

工作為基礎(chǔ),將戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束重新概念化為集合體。通過更多地關(guān)注圍繞戰(zhàn)爭的政治言論所灌輸?shù)挠绊懀?/p>

并利用情感(affect)和涌現(xiàn)(emergence)的概念,本文提出了一種研究當代戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束的新方法。大

眾文化日益被視為全球政治的重要場域,本文分析的案例研究利用大眾文化,提出了這樣一個論點,

即犧牲作為一種特例從電影和總統(tǒng)辭令中出現(xiàn),使領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能夠在實地條件不確定的情況下宣稱戰(zhàn)爭勝

利。通過情感上的電影接觸(在此通過戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束的組合概念化),觀眾更傾向于接受這種政治主張。

【原文】The question of how wars end is of continued importance, especially in the context of the ongoing

War on Terror. This question has traditionally been approached within International Relations through rational

choice theories, logical modelling and game theory. Such approaches have become increasingly ill-suited to

capturing the complexity and ambiguity of contemporary warfare and the War on Terror in particular. These

battlefield ambiguities are often at odds with political and public desires to see decisive victory in wars. This

article builds on recent critical work within War Termination Studies in order to re-conceptualise the end of

war as assemblages. By paying greater attention to the affects inculcated by political rhetoric surrounding war

and utilising the concepts of affect and emergence, this article presents a novel approach to the study of

contemporary war termination. Utilising popular culture, increasingly seen as a crucial site of global politics,

the case study analysed here advances the argument that sacrifice emerges from cinema and presidential

《國際關(guān)系》(International Relations)是國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的

頂尖期刊之一,由 SAGE 出版社與大衛(wèi)·戴維斯紀念研究

所(David Davies Memorial Institute)聯(lián)合出版編輯,其

2020 年的影響因子為 2.135。

第122頁

116

rhetoric as a trope that allows leaders to claim victory in war despite indecisive conditions of the ground.

Through affective cinematic encounters, conceptualised here through the end of wars assemblages, audiences

can become more accepting of such political claims.

2. 聯(lián)合國教科文組織世界遺產(chǎn)名錄:權(quán)力、國家利益和專業(yè)知識(UNESCO’s World Heritage

List: power, national interest, and expertise)

Deborah Barros Leal Farias,新南威爾士大學(xué)悉尼分校高級講師

【摘要】《世界遺產(chǎn)公約》的成員幾乎遍及全球,是全球遺產(chǎn)治理的核心。該公約隸屬于聯(lián)合國教科

文組織,設(shè)定了確定哪些自然和/或文化遺址可以獲得“世界遺產(chǎn)”的稱號并被列入世界遺產(chǎn)名錄的參

數(shù)。20 世紀 70 年代初以來,以專家為基礎(chǔ)的遺產(chǎn)保護分類程序,已經(jīng)成為一個公開的政治程序,以

及對從世界遺產(chǎn)名錄獲得國內(nèi)和國際權(quán)力感興趣的國家競爭的溫床。本文以這一實證案例為出發(fā)點,

反思兩個相互關(guān)聯(lián)的關(guān)鍵問題:國際組織對專業(yè)知識和分類的政治化,以及遺產(chǎn)作為國家認同項目和

“軟實力”的投射。在此過程中,本文強調(diào)了自 19 世紀末以來全球體系的變化——例如殖民主義、

冷戰(zhàn)、“新興”大國——是如何影響全球遺產(chǎn)政治的。本文主要通過基于建構(gòu)主義的方法,立足于國

際關(guān)系文獻,為世界遺產(chǎn)研究這一跨學(xué)科領(lǐng)域增添了新的內(nèi)容。

【原文】With almost universal membership, the World Heritage Convention is at the heart of the global

governance of heritage. Nested within UNESCO, the Convention sets the parameters for determining which

natural and/or cultural sites can receive the prestigious ‘World Heritage Property’ designation and be added to

the World Heritage List. What started in the early 1970s as an expert-based classification procedure focused

on heritage preservation has become an ostensive political process, and a hotbed of competing nations

interested in the domestic and international power deriving from inscriptions in the World Heritage List. This

paper takes this empirical case as a springboard to reflect upon two key interrelated issues: the politicization

of expertise and classification by International Organizations, and heritage as a national identity project and

projection of ‘soft power’. In doing so, it highlights how changes in the global system since the late 19th

century – for example, colonialism, Cold War, ‘emerging’ powers – affected the global politics of heritage.

The paper adds to the incredibly trans-disciplinary field of world heritage research by anchoring itself in

International Relations literature, mostly through a Constructivist-based approach.

3. 全球經(jīng)濟治理中改善現(xiàn)狀與挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)狀的變革:以中國金融和貿(mào)易為例(Status-quo

enhancing versus status-quo challenging change in global economic governance: the case

of China in finance and trade)

Michael Sampson,萊頓大學(xué)政治科學(xué)研究所國際關(guān)系助理教授

Jue Wang,萊頓大學(xué)區(qū)域研究所助理教授

【摘要】當一個國家對一個國際制度不滿意時,它可以采取不同的策略來實現(xiàn)變革。通過對制度復(fù)雜

性和制度選擇領(lǐng)域的研究,人們對這些策略的理解越來越深入。但是,雖然人們了解制度結(jié)構(gòu)如何影

響不同變革建議的成功機會,但對變革建議的內(nèi)容如何影響其成功卻不甚了解。在本文中,作者將提

議的制度變革分解為兩個子類型:挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)狀型和改善現(xiàn)狀型。改善現(xiàn)狀的變革推動改革,促進現(xiàn)有制

第123頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

117

度目標的實現(xiàn),因此有助于推動變革,否則現(xiàn)有制度的惰性會限制變革的進行。相反,挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)狀的變

革則會破壞現(xiàn)有制度的既定目標。本文通過比較中國為確保全球金融和貿(mào)易體制變革所做的嘗試,發(fā)

現(xiàn)對中國而言,“改善現(xiàn)狀”型變革比“挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)狀”型變革更成功,因為它們?yōu)榻⒏挥谐尚У穆?lián)盟

創(chuàng)造了更多機會。

【原文】When a state is dissatisfied with an international institution it has different strategies available to it

to secure change. These strategies are increasingly well understood due to research in the areas of regime

complexity and institutional selection. But while there is an understanding of how the structure of a regime

can influence the chances of success of different change proposals, there is less clarity on how the content of

proposed changes impacts their success. In this article we decompose proposed institutional changes into two

sub-types: Status-quo challenging and status-quo enhancing. Status-quo enhancing changes promote reforms

that advance the objectives of the existing regime and so serve to drive change that would otherwise be limited

by the inertia of existing institutions. Conversely, status-quo challenging changes undermine the stated goals

of the existing regime. We develop these sub-types by comparing China’s attempts to secure changes in the

global finance and trade regimes and find that for China status-quo enhancing changes have met with more

success than status-quo challenging approaches because they have created more opportunities for productive

coalition building.

4. 理論的時間視角:導(dǎo)致理論的不足(A theory’s time perspectives: contributing to a

theory’s inadequacy)

Christopher James Wheeler,紐卡斯爾大學(xué)國際政治系前講師

【摘要】理論既可以對未來有所啟示,也可以為判斷未來提供依據(jù)。然而,無論哪種情況,理論都不

足以獲得對未來的洞察力,這是信息獲取、信息質(zhì)量或方法論方面的任何進步都無法克服的。本文認

為,由于理論中蘊含的長期和短期時間視角,這種不足依然存在,而且無法完全克服。本文以摩根索

的國際政治理論中的時間視角為例,說明并分析了理論中的長期和短期時間視角是如何限定理論中或

理論衍生出的對未來的主張或判斷的。隨后,讀者將深入了解如何將長期和短期時間視角概念化、識

別和區(qū)分理論中時間視角的方法,以及當存在多種時間視角時,不同時間視角在理論中的發(fā)揮的作用。

【原文】Theories can either have something to say about the future or provide foundations for making

judgments about the future. In either case, however, a theory remains inadequate for obtaining insights about

the future which no amount of advancements in information access and quality or methodologies can overcome.

This article suggests that inadequacy persists and cannot be completely overcome because of the long-term

and short-term time perspectives embedded within a theory. Using illustrative examples of time perspectives

from Morgenthau’s theory of international politics, this article illustrates and analyses how long-term and

short-term time perspectives within a theory delimit claims or judgments about the future made within or

derived from a theory. Subsequently, readers gain insights on how to conceptualise long-term and short-term

time perspectives, methods for identifying and differentiating between time perspectives within a theory and

the distinct work time perspectives perform within a theory when multiple time perspectives are present.

第124頁

118

5. 家庭與世界:馬蒂·科斯肯涅米的法律想象力(Home and the world: the legal

imagination of Martti Koskenniemi)

David Armitage,哈佛大學(xué)歷史學(xué)教授

【摘要】芬蘭律師兼史學(xué)家馬爾蒂·科斯肯涅米(Martti Koskenniemi)的新著《到地球最遠的地方:

法律想象力和國際權(quán)力,1300—1870 年》(2021 年)是一項長達 30 年、致力于解構(gòu)國際法專業(yè)的主

流假設(shè)并將其歷史化的項目都結(jié)晶。本文綜合科斯肯涅米更大的重要項目都背景及 19 世紀末至今的

國際法史學(xué)范圍來評估此書。本文認為,科斯肯涅米的系譜學(xué)方法既有啟發(fā)性,也有令人沮喪之處:

令人沮喪之處在于其分散性和缺乏總體論證,但啟發(fā)性在于其揭示了范圍、博學(xué)和破壞傳統(tǒng)目的論的

野心,揭示了法律語言的約束力,揭露了 500 多年來歐洲“國內(nèi)法”與國際法之間的對話。

【原文】The Finnish lawyer-historian Martti Koskenniemi’s new book, To the Uttermost Parts of the Earth:

Legal Imagination and International Power, 1300–1870 (2021), is the culmination of a 30-year-long project to

deconstruct and historicise the reigning assumptions of the profession of international law. This article

evaluates To the Uttermost Parts of the Earth in the context of Koskenniemi’s larger critical project as well as

within the historiography of international law from the late 19th century to the present. It argues that

Koskenniemi’s genealogical method is revealing and frustrating in equal measure: frustrating in its diffuseness

and lack of overarching argument but revealing in its scope, in its erudition and in its ambitions to disrupt

traditional teleologies, to reveal the constraining force of legal language and to expose European dialogues

between ‘domestic’ and international law over more than 500?years.

【編譯: 鄒梓軒】

【責(zé)任編輯:嚴瑾怡】

《國際研究季刊》(International Studies Quarterly)

《國際研究季刊》(International Studies Quarterly)是國

際研究協(xié)會(ISA)的旗艦期刊,旨在發(fā)布與國際研究中重

要的理論、實證和規(guī)范主題相關(guān)的領(lǐng)先學(xué)者研究。期刊文

章以富有意義的方式探索跨國的政治、經(jīng)濟、社會或文化

進程,旨在為解釋性難題提供答案、展示原創(chuàng)性研究、探

討國際理論主題,或以其他方式介入學(xué)科辯論,兼具學(xué)術(shù)

和政策意義。2022-2023 年期刊影響因子為 2.6。

第125頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

119

International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 68, No. 1, 2024

1. 塑造記憶:亞美尼亞種族滅絕在歐洲的承認(Memory Entrepreneurship: Armenian

Genocide Recognition in Europe)

Daniel Fittante,瑞典南頓大學(xué)博士后

【摘要】學(xué)者通過分析歐洲國家的歷史記憶法(memory laws),探究了政治行為體如何利用與大屠殺

相關(guān)的法律規(guī)定粉飾歷史以及顛覆民主傳統(tǒng)。不過,歐洲的政治行為體也曾就其他幾部歷史記憶法進

行過辯論,極右翼議員們利用這些法律來達到自己的目的。對亞美尼亞種族滅絕的承認就是這種現(xiàn)象

的一個未被充分研究的例子。根據(jù)在保加利亞、捷克共和國、拉脫維亞和瑞典四國收集的數(shù)據(jù),本文

采用記憶合理化(memory justification)和記憶外推化(memory extrapolation)的修辭策略,研究極右

翼議員如何在截然不同的地緣政治背景下挪用并操縱亞美尼亞種族滅絕的記憶,從而攻擊多元主義和

推廣自身認同的歐洲模板。本文通過對工具化亞美尼亞種族滅絕事件的分析,探討了當代歐洲政治核

心中日益嚴重的危機。這場危機牽涉到目標和價值觀迥異的行為體,正日益嚴重地威脅到歐洲的社會

政治凝聚力。

【原文】Scholars have analyzed how political actors appropriate Holocaust-related memory laws to whitewash

the past and undermine democratic traditions in various European countries. However, political actors in

Europe have debated several other memory laws, which far-right MPs appropriate to serve their own purposes.

The recognition of the Armenian Genocide is an understudied example of this phenomenon. Drawing from

data collected in four countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Sweden—this analysis introduces

the rhetorical strategies of memory justification and memory extrapolation to examine how far-right MPs, in

very distinct geopolitical contexts, appropriate and instrumentalize Armenian Genocide memory to attack

pluralism and promote their own versions of Europe. Through an analysis of the instrumentalization of the

Armenian Genocide, this article examines a growing crisis at the center of contemporary European politics.

This crisis, which involves actors promoting very different goals and values, increasingly threatens the sociopolitical cohesion of Europe.

2. 塑造國際協(xié)議的超級網(wǎng)絡(luò):氣候變化與核武器領(lǐng)域的比較(Super-Networks Shaping

International Agreements: Comparing the Climate Change and Nuclear Weapons Arenas)

Andrea Schapper,斯特靈大學(xué)國際政治系教授

Megan Dee,斯特靈大學(xué)國際政治系高級講師

【摘要】盡管國際關(guān)系學(xué)界針對跨國倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)(TANs)的研究已經(jīng)非常成熟,但關(guān)于跨國倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)在

跨政策領(lǐng)域的合作仍然存在知識空白。為了填補這一空白,本文重點介紹了超級網(wǎng)絡(luò)(高于單個跨國

倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)的倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò))是如何在各個議題領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)的,并探討了實現(xiàn)其目標和達成國際協(xié)議的策略。

本文建立了一個分析框架以理解超級網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何運作,強調(diào)政治機會結(jié)構(gòu)、動員結(jié)構(gòu)和策略之間重要的

相互作用,并通過比較案例研究法來應(yīng)用這一框架,分析了跨選區(qū)聯(lián)盟(Inter-Constituency Alliance)

和國際廢除核武器運動(International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons),前者的宣傳促

使人權(quán)話語被納入 2015 年的《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》,后者基于人道主義原則開展的活動促成了 2017 年

的《禁止核武器條約》。本文發(fā)現(xiàn),超級網(wǎng)絡(luò)利用一攬子方法策略(a package approach tactic)展多層

次宣傳活動。通過一攬子方法,超級網(wǎng)絡(luò)將來自不同議題領(lǐng)域的多種觀點綜合歸納成基于人道主義框

架的關(guān)鍵信息,進而增強自身的道德影響力和合法性,促使國家更加難以忽視它們的關(guān)切。

第126頁

120

【原文】While research on transnational advocacy networks (TANs) is well established in international

relations, knowledge gaps remain concerning TAN collaboration across policy fields. To address this gap, this

article highlights how super-networks (networks above individual TANs) emerge across issue areas and

explores the tactics utilized to achieve their objectives and shape international agreements. We develop an

analytical framework that emphasizes the important interplay between political opportunity structures,

mobilizing structures, and tactics in understanding how super-networks operate. We apply this framework via

a comparative case study approach, analyzing the Inter-Constituency Alliance, whose advocacy brought about

the inclusion of human rights language in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, and the International Campaign

for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, whose activities based on humanitarian principles resulted in the 2017

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Contributing new knowledge to TANs research, we identify

that super-networks utilize multilevel advocacy activities that draw upon a package approach tactic. Via the

package approach, super-networks synthesize multiple voices from different issue areas into one key message

grounded in humanitarian framing, thereby enhancing their moral leverage and legitimacy, making it more

difficult for states to neglect their concerns.

3. 軍事演習(xí)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)(Military Exercises and Network Effects)

Kevin Galambo,美國德克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校政府系博士生,亞利桑那大學(xué)博士后研究員

【摘要】從 1980 年到 2016 年,參加多國軍事演習(xí)(MME)的國家比例增加了 20 倍。是什么原因

導(dǎo)致了這種激增?現(xiàn)有研究側(cè)重于大國的作用和國際體系的性質(zhì),但無法解釋沒有大國參與的演習(xí)

或多國軍事演習(xí)數(shù)量的持續(xù)增長。本文將國際體系中主要行為體之間的軍演模式概念化為網(wǎng)絡(luò)。推

理網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析工具顯示,流行性、傳遞性和記憶性等高階效應(yīng)增加了各國進行軍事合作的可能性。多

種聯(lián)系嵌套的國家擁有吸引合作伙伴的制度知識和威望。在多國聯(lián)盟形成的過程中,友國會增加信

任并產(chǎn)生正反饋,且過去的合作降低了未來合作的成本。實證分析表明,在這些相互依存的過程的

驅(qū)動下,多國軍事合作不斷演化成網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)是一種新興屬性,而大國和聯(lián)盟等傳統(tǒng)安全合作解釋的

影響力會隨時間的推移而下降。

【原文】Between 1980 and 2016, the percentage of states that partnered in a multinational military exercise

(MME) increased twenty-fold. What explains this proliferation? Existing studies focus on the role of major

powers and polarity but fail to explain exercises without great powers or the continuous growth of MME

participation. I conceptualize patterns of exercises among all members of the international system as networks.

Inferential network analysis shows that higher-order effects like popularity, transitivity, and memory increase

the probability that states cooperate militarily. Countries with many connections have institutional knowledge

and prestige to attract partners. Multinational coalitions form where mutual friends increase trust and create

positive feedback. Past cooperation lowers the costs of future partnerships. Empirical analysis shows that the

evolving network structure of MMEs is an emergent property driven by these interdependent processes, and

that traditional explanations for security cooperation like great powers and alliances decrease in influence over

time.

4. 半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)鏈中的跨網(wǎng)絡(luò)武器化 ( Cross-Network Weaponization in the

Semiconductor Supply Chain)

第127頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

121

Guillaume Beaumier,加拿大國立政府行政學(xué)院助理教授

Madison Cartwright,澳大利亞新南威爾士大學(xué)講師

【摘要】國家在多個且相互關(guān)聯(lián)的經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地位如何影響其權(quán)力?武器化相互依賴(WI)相關(guān)的

學(xué)術(shù)研究強調(diào),處于全球經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)絡(luò)中心能為國家?guī)硇碌拿{迫(他國)的來源。本文探討了在多網(wǎng)絡(luò)

中的地位如何相互影響,從而創(chuàng)造出新的機遇和弱點。本文利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法繪制了半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)鏈圖,

并提出可以將其視為四個相互關(guān)聯(lián)的網(wǎng)絡(luò):(1)設(shè)計、(2)原材料、(3)制造設(shè)備和(4)組裝芯

片。隨后本文強調(diào)了國家在這些網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的中心地位是如何變化的,以及這種變化如何塑造了它們各自

的機遇——以權(quán)力優(yōu)勢脅迫他國。以美國為具體案例,本文解釋了在設(shè)計網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的中心地位如何使其

能夠在組裝芯片的貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)中占據(jù)有利位置。本文有如下貢獻,首先,闡明多種經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)絡(luò)之間的互動

為國家提供了將相互依存武器化的新機遇;其次,嘗試利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法探究國際體系結(jié)構(gòu)性權(quán)力;最

后,展示網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法如何幫助發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在的(或濫用的)武器化相互依賴,以及武器化的潛力如何隨著

時間的推移而演變。

【原文】How do states’ positions across multiple and interconnected economic networks affect their power?

The Weaponized Interdependence (WI) scholarship emphasizes that states centrally located in global

economic networks have access to new sources of coercion. In this paper, we look at how their positions across

multiple networks interact with each other to create new opportunities and vulnerabilities. We use network

analysis to map the semiconductor supply chain and show that it can be viewed as four interrelated networks:

(1) design, (2) raw material, (3) manufacturing equipment, and (4) assembled chips. We then highlight how

states’ centrality varies across these networks and how it shapes their respective opportunities for coercion.

Looking specifically at the United States, we emphasize how its centrality in the design network enables it to

weaponize chokepoints in the trade network of assembled chips. In so doing the paper makes three

contributions. First, it highlights how interactions among multiple economic networks provide new

opportunities for states to weaponize interdependence. Second, it contributes to recent attempts using network

analysis to analyze structural power on the global stage. Last, it demonstrates how network methodology can

help detect potential (ab)uses of WI and how the potential for weaponization evolves over time.

5. 選舉效應(yīng):群體間沖突中的民主領(lǐng)袖(The Election Effect: Democratic Leaders in

Inter-Group Conflict)

Stephen Chaudoin,哈佛大學(xué)政治系助理教授

Sarah Hummel,哈佛大學(xué)政府系的客座助理教授

Yon Soo Park,哈佛大學(xué)政府系博士生

【摘要】當選的經(jīng)歷如何改變繼任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者在國際上的行為?本文論證了選舉效應(yīng)的存在:通過這種效

應(yīng),民主選舉加強了內(nèi)部群體的認同,并產(chǎn)生了對選民的義務(wù)感,但增加了對外部群體的敵意。這種

綜合效應(yīng)會導(dǎo)致領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在與其他群體競爭時付出過高的代價。通過一項在線研究室實驗,本文證明了

對民主領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的選擇會增加群體間的競爭博弈,而這種競爭與國家間沖突有著共同的特征。本文采用

一種精心設(shè)計的分解策略,將選舉效應(yīng)與通俗意義上的選擇效應(yīng)區(qū)分開來,而在選擇效應(yīng)中領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是

非隨機選出的。本文結(jié)論在于,盡管民主選舉在群體內(nèi)部普遍產(chǎn)生積極影響,但在群體間博弈中具有

負面影響。

【原文】How does the experience of being elected alter subsequent leader behavior at the international level?

We argue for the existence of an election effect, through which a democratic election intensifies in-group

identification and generates a sense of obligation to voters, while simultaneously increasing out-group hostility.

第128頁

122

These combined effects cause leaders to overexert costly efforts in competitive situations against other groups.

Using an online laboratory experiment, we show that democratic leader selection increases effort in intergroup contest games, which share key features with interstate conflicts. We use a carefully specified

decomposition strategy to distinguish the election effect from better-known selection effects, wherein eventual

leaders are nonrandomly chosen. Our results show that a democratic election has negative implications in

inter-group games, despite the near-universally positive effects of democracy found in intra-group ones.

6. “懲罰者”的困境:國內(nèi)反對派與外交政策危機(The Punisher's Dilemma: Domestic

Opposition and Foreign Policy Crises)

Fahd Humayun,塔夫茨大學(xué)政治學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】現(xiàn)有對外交政策的民主問責(zé)研究表明,當執(zhí)政者在外交上使國家蒙受損失時,后果包括但不

限于在危機中下臺、作出代價高昂的妥協(xié)或接受失敗,國內(nèi)的反對派政治家會在批評政府與國家利益

之間權(quán)衡。然而,本文聚焦解釋民主鞏固政體中的反對派行為。本文認為,盡管在制度薄弱的政權(quán)中,

具有選舉競爭力的反對派能夠且經(jīng)常批評民選繼任政府在外交政策方面做出代價高昂的顛覆行為,但

如果他們認為這種批評可能會對民主穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生負面影響,而且可能導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的非正常更替并因

此阻礙反對派上臺,那么他們就不太可能這樣做。本文在針對隸屬于巴基斯坦最大政黨的 430 名黨工

進行的調(diào)查實驗中驗證了這一假設(shè),稱其為“反對派實用主義”,并在一個規(guī)模較小但高度精英化的 202

名巴基斯坦立法者樣本中發(fā)現(xiàn)了結(jié)果一致的效應(yīng)。

【原文】Existing work on the democratic accountability of foreign policy suggests that when an incumbent

incurs foreign policy losses, including but not limited to standing down in a crisis, making costly compromises,

or accepting defeat abroad, opposition politicians at home weigh criticizing the government with the national

interest. But this work has largely been developed with a view to explaining oppositional behavior in

consolidated democracies. I argue that while electorally competitive oppositions in weakly institutionalized

regimes can and frequently do criticize elected incumbents for costly foreign policy reversals, they are less

likely to do so if they believe this criticism may negatively affect democratic stability and potentially invite

irregular leadership turnover, as this would prevent the opposition from coming into office. I find support for

this hypothesis, which I term oppositional pragmatism, in a survey experiment on 430 political party workers

affiliated with Pakistan's biggest political party and directionally consistent effects on a smaller but highly elite

sample of 202 Pakistani legislators.

7. 以主權(quán)換自決權(quán)(Trading Sovereignty for Self-Determination)

Katherine M Beall,衛(wèi)斯理學(xué)院政治學(xué)系客座講師

【摘要】弱國或附屬國,尤其是有過被殖民化和帝國主義統(tǒng)治歷史的國家,歷來是嚴格制度化和遵守

不干涉原則的最有力的倡導(dǎo)者。這些國家極易受到國際壓力的影響,且試圖通過“死守”主權(quán)來緩解這

種壓力。然而,在堅持不干涉原則立場的幾十年后,許多國家開始將廣泛的“可干涉”權(quán)力委托給其所

在的地區(qū)組織。造成這種變化的原因何在?本文以拉美國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人決定向美洲國家組織委托執(zhí)行人權(quán)

標準的權(quán)力、繼而在不干涉原則立場上做出妥協(xié)為例,來探討這一問題。本文認為,拉美國家的動機

是試圖維護自決和抵制強權(quán)。在提出這一論點時,本文擴展了自決(self-determination)的定義,預(yù)設(shè)

其包含國家對國際規(guī)則的自決權(quán)。強調(diào)規(guī)范傳播或民主化的既有研究無法解釋這一重要變化,而本文

證明了區(qū)域主義在全球南方的擴散在某種程度上是一種微妙策略,目的在于減輕等級體系的不良影響,

并建立一個以尊重自決為基礎(chǔ)的國際體系。

第129頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

123

【原文】Weak or dependent states, especially those with histories of colonial and imperial domination, have

traditionally been among the strongest advocates for strict institutionalization and observance of the norm of

non-interference. These states are vulnerable to international pressure, and they have sought to limit this

pressure by “jealously” guarding their sovereignty. Yet, after decades of advocating for strict non-interference,

many have begun to delegate extensive interventionist authority to their regional organizations. What explains

this change? I explore this question in the case of the decision by Latin American leaders to compromise on

non-interference by delegating authority to enforce human rights to the Organization of American States. I

argue that they were motivated by attempts to maintain self-determination and resist the imposition of authority.

In making this argument, I extend the definition of self-determination to incorporate self-determination over

international rules. I show that existing explanations for this development that emphasize norm diffusion or

democratization cannot account for important dynamics. These findings offer evidence that the expansion of

regionalism in the Global South has been, in part, a subtle strategy to mitigate the undesirable effects of

hierarchy and to create an international system based on respect for self-determination.

8. 從擴散到擴散能力:解釋企業(yè)可持續(xù)性政策擴散的“文本即數(shù)據(jù)”方法(From

Diffusion to Diffuse-ability: A Text-as-Data Approach to Explaining the Global Diffusion

of Corporate Sustainability Policy)

Adam Chalmers,倫敦政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)院副教授

Robyn Klingler-Vidra,倫敦政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)院副教授

Onna Malou van den Broek,??巳卮髮W(xué)管理系講師

【摘要】本文認為,擴散對象本身的屬性決定了政策擴散的形式和程度。關(guān)于政策擴散的既有研究主

要集中在行為體層面的性質(zhì)(如人脈、文化、區(qū)位等),來解釋政策擴散的內(nèi)容和程度。本文擴展了

政策文本對傳播模式影響的現(xiàn)有理論,認為那些更容易理解、適用性更具體、且不強制要求特定行為

的政策,其文本傳播的適應(yīng)性更低,以及與組織本身類別無關(guān),從而具有更強的擴散能力。本文以企

業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展政策(CSP)的全球傳播為案例,分析了 65 年間來自 100 個國家、20 個國際組織和 12

個地區(qū)組織的 1429 份企業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展政策的新數(shù)據(jù)集,驗證了這一論點。本文提供了一個衡量擴散

的精確標準,即采納文本對源文本的復(fù)制程度,并發(fā)現(xiàn)了針對這一假設(shè)的統(tǒng)計支持。本文通過將自然

語言處理方法納入學(xué)術(shù)主流及在理論上闡明政策文件的屬性如何影響組織適應(yīng)的程度,為擴散研究做

出了貢獻。

【原文】This paper argues that attributes of diffusion objects, in their own right, shape the form and extent

of policy diffusion. To date, diffusion scholarship focuses on actor-level attributes (e.g., connections, culture,

physical proximity, etc.) to explain what is diffused and how much. Extending existing theory on the impacts

of policies’ textual properties on diffusion patterns, we argue that policies that are easier to understand, specific

in their applicability, and that do not mandate specific behavior have their text diffused with less adaptation,

regardless of the attributes of the authoring organization. We test our argument in the context of the global

diffusion of corporate sustainability policy (CSP), analyzing a novel dataset of 1,429 CSPs from 100 countries,

20 international organizations, and 12 regional organizations over a 65-year period. Offering a precise measure

of diffusion as the extent to which a source text is copied into an adopter text, we find statistical support for

our hypothesis. We contribute to diffusion scholarship by helping to mainstream natural language processing

methods and by theorizing how attributes of policy documents affect how much adaptation occurs.

【編譯:楊魯華】

【責(zé)任編輯:封欣怡】

第130頁

124

《國際研究評論》(Review of International Studies)

Review of International Studies,Vol. 50, No. 1, 2024

1.哥特視覺與國際關(guān)系:阿勒頗中的不可思議圖標、批判性漫畫與排斥政治(Gothic

visibilities and International Relations: Uncanny icons, critical comics, and the politics of

abjection in Aleppo)

Frederik Carl Windfeld,歐洲大學(xué)學(xué)院政治與社會科學(xué)系研究員

Marius Hauge Hvithamar,哥本哈根大學(xué)政治系碩士生

Lene Hansen,哥本哈根大學(xué)政治系教授

【摘要】敘利亞戰(zhàn)爭通過展示死去和受傷的兒童、被斬首和被折磨的尸體以及廢墟中的城市的圖片,

傳達給全球觀眾。本文闡述了新聞媒體如何通過援引哥特傳統(tǒng)來報道戰(zhàn)爭對阿勒頗城市的影響。文章

借鑒了克里斯特娃和弗洛伊德關(guān)于“排斥物”和“不可思議”的概念,論證了哥特傳統(tǒng)如何進一步推

動國際關(guān)系研究關(guān)于“自我”和“他者”的構(gòu)成。哥特式的“他者”是通過(哥特式)“自我”的厭

惡、迷戀和欲望所構(gòu)成的,而哥特傳統(tǒng)圍繞著對不可見之物作為恐懼與期待之間空間的理解。能否在

圖像中識別出哥特主題,取決于個人對哥特傳統(tǒng)的熟悉程度,因此,圖像被理論化為具有哥特潛力。

文章重點討論了盎格魯-撒克遜哥特傳統(tǒng)如何使西方讀者能夠在阿勒頗戰(zhàn)爭新聞報道中識別出哥特主

題。文章采用了多種方法策略,包括對西方新聞媒體發(fā)布的 457 張圖片進行內(nèi)容分析;對新聞故事進

行話語分析;對三個哥特式、不可思議的標志性圖案進行分析;以及作者根據(jù)發(fā)布的照片創(chuàng)作的、帶

有哥特元素的漫畫繪制。

【原文】The war in Syria has been communicated to global audiences through images of dead and injured

children, decapitated and tortured bodies, and ruined cities. The article shows how news media coverage of

the war's impact on the city of Aleppo invoked a Gothic tradition. Drawing on Kristeva and Freud's concepts

of the abject and the uncanny, the article argues that the Gothic tradition can further International Relations

research on the constitution of Selves and Others. The Gothic Other is constituted through the (Gothic) Self's

《國際研究評論》(Review of International Studies)是由

劍橋大學(xué)出版社代表英國國際研究協(xié)會出版且同行評審

的國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)期刊,其前身為 British Journal of

International Studies (1975 - 1980)。該期刊致力于反映全

球政治的性質(zhì)變化和新興的政治挑戰(zhàn),旨在為國際社會搭

建一個可供辯論的平臺用以討論當下緊迫的全球議題。

2020 年該期刊的影響因子為 2.73。

第131頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

125

repulsion, fascination, and desire, and the Gothic tradition revolves around an understanding of the invisible

as an in-between space of fear and anticipation. The ability to recognise Gothic themes in an image depends

on one's familiarity with the Gothic tradition, hence images are theorised as having a Gothic potentiality. The

article focuses on how the Anglo-Saxon Gothic tradition enabled Western readers to identify Gothic themes

in news coverage of the war in Aleppo. The article adopts a multimethod strategy including a content analysis

of 457 images published by Western news media; a discourse analysis of news stories; an analysis of three

Gothic, uncanny iconic motifs; and an author-created comic drawing on Gothic elements from the published

photographs.

2.理論化網(wǎng)絡(luò)迷因景觀:互聯(lián)網(wǎng)迷因的空間政治(Theorising the memescape: The spatial

politics of Internet memes)

Uygar Baspehlivan, 布里斯托大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士研究員

【摘要】盡管互聯(lián)網(wǎng)迷因(流行語)在日常政治傳播和實踐中的核心性日益增強,但作為全球政治中

低文化藝術(shù)品的迷因,其新興影響卻鮮少受到理論關(guān)注。作者發(fā)展了一種迷因的批判理論,以提供一

個概念工具來理解這種流行文化現(xiàn)象的全球政治影響和可能性。作者認為,為了關(guān)注迷因的新興影響

并考慮它們與其他流行文化現(xiàn)象的區(qū)別,需要解析迷因產(chǎn)生和流通的空間邏輯。通過“迷因景觀”的

概念分析這種空間邏輯,并運用吉爾·德勒茲和費利克斯·瓜塔里的紋理化和光滑空間概念,本文表

述了迷因景觀的空間邏輯,包括:根莖式、去中心化的數(shù)字內(nèi)容流通;游牧式、趣味性、幽默性地顛

覆曾經(jīng)穩(wěn)定的符號;以及多樣主體的情感集會。通過探討兩個例子,即本地數(shù)字社群的抵抗性迷因和

另類右翼的反動迷因,這些光滑空間趨勢是如何產(chǎn)生不同的政治潛力,作者得出結(jié)論,迷因景觀的全

球政治是開放的、未定的,這需要我們小心翼翼、細致入微地對其政治和倫理關(guān)注,以實現(xiàn)其解放視

野的未來。

【原文】Despite the increasing centrality of Internet memes for everyday political circulations and practices,

their emergent implications as low-cultural artefacts of global politics have received little theoretical attention.

In this article, I develop a critical theory of memes to provide a conceptual apparatus to understand the global

political implications and possibilities of this pop-cultural phenomenon. I argue that, in order to attend to the

emergent implications of memes and consider their differentiations from other pop-cultural phenomena, we

need to unpack the spatial logic through which memes emerge and circulate. Analysing this spatial logic

through the concept of the ‘memescape’ and deploying Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari’s notions of striated

and smooth spaces, this article articulates the spatial logic of the memescape as comprising rhizomatic,

decentralised circulations of digital content; nomadic, playful, and humorous disruptions of once-stable signs;

and affective congregations of a multiplicity of subjects. Through two examples exploring how these smooth

spatial tendencies produce divergent political potentials in the resistant memes of Indigenous digital

communities and reactionary memes of the Alt-Right, I conclude that the global politics of the memescape is

open-ended and undetermined which requires careful and nuanced political and ethical attention to actualise

its futures for emancipatory horizons.

第132頁

126

3.哦,救命!哦,不!《咕嚕牛》的國際政治:兒童繪本與世界政治(Oh help! Oh no!

The international politics of The Gruffalo: Children’s picturebooks and world politics)

Lee Jarvis,東盎格利亞大學(xué)國際政治學(xué)教授

Nick Robinson,利茲大學(xué)政治與國際研究副教授

【摘要】本文探討了兒童繪本在構(gòu)建和批判世界政治中的共謀作用。聚焦于《咕嚕牛》,文章主張這

本極為成功的書籍:(1) 描述了一個悲觀的、無政府的世界,其中居住著自私的求生者;(2) 通過喚起

對社會化威脅的制造,擾亂了這種閱讀和其假設(shè);以及,(3) 通過對主角穿越“深沉黑暗的森林”這

一地方性特權(quán)旅程的描述,提供了對國際關(guān)系的更根本性的去殖民批判。作者認為,這本書生動地展

示了世界對多種不兼容解讀的敏感性,同時使國際理解的假設(shè)、框架和遺漏變得可見。因此,它將世

界政治及其知識理論化為偶然性和不穩(wěn)定性。在提出這一論點的過程中,文章作出了三個貢獻。首先,

在實證上,通過研究一個出人意料地被忽視的流行文化例子,擴展了對流行文化和世界政治的研究。

其次,在理論上,展示了這類文本在(重新)構(gòu)建和(不)穩(wěn)定全球政治(的認知)方面所發(fā)揮的作

用。第三,為將來研究像《咕嚕?!愤@樣復(fù)雜文本的背景、內(nèi)容和框架提供了一個綜合性的方法論框

架。

【原文】The article explores the complicity of children’s picturebooks in the construction and critique of

world politics. Focusing on The Gruffalo, it argues that this spectacularly successful book: (1) stories the

international as a pessimistic, anarchical world populated by self-interested, survival-seekers; (2) disrupts this

reading and its assumptions through evocation of the social production of threat; and, (3) provides a more

fundamental decolonial critique of the international through parochial privileging of its protagonist’s journey

through a ‘deep dark wood’. In doing this, we argue, the book vividly demonstrates the world’s susceptibility

to multiple incompatible readings, while rendering visible the assumptions, framing, and occlusions of

competing understandings of the international. As such, it theorises both world politics and knowledge thereof

as contingent and unstable. In making this argument, three contributions are made. First, empirically, we

expand research on popular culture and world politics through investigating a surprisingly neglected example

of the former. Second, theoretically, we demonstrate the work such texts perform in (re)creating and

(de)stabilising (knowledge of) global politics. Third, we offer a composite methodological framework for

future research into the context, content, and framing of complex texts like The Gruffalo.

4.正在形成的世界:關(guān)于氣候工程的全球視覺政治(World in the making: On the global

visual politics of climate engineering)

Ann-Kathrin Benner,漢堡大學(xué)和平研究與安全政治研究院博士候選人

Delf Rothe,漢堡大學(xué)和平研究與安全政治研究院高級研究員

【摘要】關(guān)于采用大規(guī)模技術(shù)干預(yù)地球系統(tǒng)以減緩全球變暖——或稱氣候工程——的提議,已在國際

安全和全球治理的潛在影響方面引發(fā)了相當多的討論。本文通過與視覺全球政治文獻的對話,推進了

這一辯論,發(fā)展出一個更“形象化”的氣候工程想象概念。基于一個新穎的視覺數(shù)據(jù)集,識別出公共

話語中關(guān)于氣候工程的三個主要視覺集群:人與自然關(guān)系的圖像、作為具體基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的氣候工程的圖

像,以及氣候工程項目中涉及的行為者的圖像。分析顯示,圖像和其他視覺元素不僅塑造了對氣候工

第133頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

127

程的主導(dǎo)理解,也塑造了未來政治秩序的競爭性想象,這些政治秩序可能部署此類方法。這項分析的

三個主要結(jié)果尤為突出。首先,對氣候工程的主導(dǎo)視角可能進一步加強已經(jīng)占主導(dǎo)地位的話語框架,

通過為其背后的主張增加“視覺證據(jù)”。其次,氣候工程的視覺性也可以通過使具體項目可見且因此

可爭議,促進氣候工程的政治化。第三,氣候工程的圖像可能會以悖論的方式限制想象的范圍,因為

它們通常圍繞著過去和現(xiàn)在的強大視覺圖標和符號。

【原文】Proposals for large-scale technical interventions into the Earth system to mitigate global warming –

or climate engineering – have sparked considerable debate about their potential implications for international

security and global governance. The article furthers this debate by bringing it into dialogue with the literature

on visual global politics to develop a more ‘imagistic’ concept of climate engineering imaginaries. Based on

a novel visual dataset, three major visual clusters in the public discourse on climate engineering are identified:

images of the human–nature relationship, of climate engineering as tangible infrastructure, and of the actors

involved in climate engineering projects. The analysis shows how images and other visuals do not only shape

the dominant understanding of climate engineering but also competing imaginaries of future political orders

in which such approaches might be deployed. Three main results of this analysis stand out. First, dominant

ways of seeing climate engineering can further reinforce already dominant discursive frames by adding ‘visual

proof’ to their underlying claims. Second, climate engineering visuality can also enable the politicisation of

climate engineering by rendering concrete projects visible and hence contestable. Third, climate engineering

images can paradoxically limit the scope of imagination as they often revolve around powerful visual icons

and symbols of the past and present.

5. 《高墻邊的混亂》與以色列對巴勒斯坦的占領(lǐng):國際政治中的性別、情感和共犯視覺

表現(xiàn)(Fauda and the Israeli occupation of Palestine: Gender, emotions, and visual

representations of complicity in international politics)

Sorana Jude,紐卡斯爾大學(xué)博士后研究員

【摘要】本文檢視了國際關(guān)系學(xué)中戰(zhàn)爭、沖突和軍事占領(lǐng)下共謀的視覺政治。通過主張共謀是一種社

會關(guān)系,通過這種關(guān)系,行為者在利用不均勻分布的權(quán)力和資源的同時,巧妙地應(yīng)對暴力,文章探索

了以色列電視劇《高墻下的混亂》(Fauda)中共謀行為的生產(chǎn)、表達和接受,該劇講述了在以色列對

巴勒斯坦的占領(lǐng)下的共謀行為。本文基于女性主義國際關(guān)系學(xué)對情感、性別和視覺表現(xiàn)的關(guān)注,對國

際政治中共謀研究提供了兩方面的貢獻。首先,《高墻下的混亂》的創(chuàng)作者、發(fā)行者和觀眾之間的共

謀糾葛凸顯了文化工作者在塑造公眾對戰(zhàn)爭、暴力和軍事占領(lǐng)知識方面的作用,特別是通過創(chuàng)建和傳

播文化表征,通過特定的情感邏輯(同情、憐憫、恐懼)促使觀眾與他們通過文化產(chǎn)品消費的暴力形

成共謀關(guān)系。其次,本文通過檢視作品中的共謀表現(xiàn),揭示了共謀者在暴力中央,如何在不同身份(加

害者、受害者、見證者、旁觀者)間導(dǎo)航的具體體驗。為此,本文增進了我們對國際政治中情感、抵

抗和統(tǒng)治的理解。

【原文】This article examines the visual politics of complicity within war, conflict, and military occupation

in International Relations (IR). By arguing that complicity is a social relation through which actors navigate

violence while drawing on power and resources that are distributed unevenly, it explores the production,

第134頁

128

articulation, and reception of complicity within the Israeli television series Fauda, which addresses complicit

behaviour under the Israeli occupation of Palestine. By building on Feminist IR's engagement with emotions,

gender, and visual representations, this article provides a twofold contribution to the study of complicity in

international politics. Firstly, the complicit entanglement between creators, distributors, and viewers of Fauda

spotlights the cultural workers’ role in shaping public knowledge of war, violence, and military occupation,

particularly by creating and circulating cultural representations that facilitate the complicity of audiences with

the violence that they consume through certain emotional logics (empathy, compassion, fear). Secondly, this

article examines representations of complicity within Fauda to shed light on complicit actors’ embodied

experiences of navigating between different identities while caught in the middle of violence (perpetrator,

victim, witness, bystander). To this end, this article develops our understanding of emotions, resistance, and

domination in international politics.

6.地位線索與規(guī)范變革:奧斯卡獎如何促進了智利的性別身份法(Status cues and

normative change: How the Academy Awards facilitated Chile’s gender identity law)

Carsten-Andreas Schulz,劍橋大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)助理教授

Cameron G. Thies,密歇根州立大學(xué)教授

【摘要】本研究探討了電影《普通女人》獲得奧斯卡獎如何促進了智利性別身份法的通過。該法案在

國會擱置了五年多之后,于 2018 年獲批,確立了個人有權(quán)在不需要改變其外貌或獲得事先法院授權(quán)

的情況下,修改其國家身份證件的權(quán)利。雖然跨性別權(quán)利活動人士廣泛游說支持一項保障性別標記變

更的法律,但保守派拒絕了這一倡議,他們以基督教價值觀為框架,反對所謂的“性別意識形態(tài)”,

聲稱這是該法案的指導(dǎo)思想。本文認為,這種反對在獲獎之后消散了。國際認可使得支持跨性別權(quán)利

暫時成為國民自豪的事情,從而為該法案的批準打開了一扇機會之窗。智利性別身份法案的例子說明

了國際地位線索如何通過在國內(nèi)受眾中調(diào)動情感來促進規(guī)范變革。它對地位與國內(nèi)政治變革的最新辯

論,以及情感和情緒在世界政治中的作用,做出了貢獻。

【原文】This study explores how the Academy Award for A Fantastic Woman facilitated the adoption of

Chile's Gender Identity Law. Approved in 2018 after languishing for over five years in Congress, the law

establishes individuals’ right to modify their national identification documents without the need to change

their physical appearance or receive prior court authorisation. While trans rights activists extensively lobbied

for a law that guaranteed access to gender marker changes, conservatives rejected the initiative, framing their

opposition in terms of Christian values and against the ‘gender ideology’ that purportedly informed the bill.

We argue that this backlash dissipated in the wake of the award. International recognition made support for

trans rights temporarily a matter of national pride, thereby opening a window of opportunity for the approval

of the law. The case of Chile's Gender Identity Law illustrates how international status cues can foster

normative change by mobilising affect in domestic audiences. It contributes to recent debates on status and

domestic political change, and the role that emotion and affect play in world politics.

第135頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

129

7.創(chuàng)造可殖民土地:19 世紀德國的地圖學(xué)、“空白空間”與帝國想象(Creating

colonisable land: Cartography, ‘blank spaces’, and imaginaries of empire in nineteenthcentury Germany)

Zeynep Gül?ah ?apan,埃爾福特大學(xué)高級講師

Filipe dos Reis,格羅寧根大學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】社會科學(xué)和人文學(xué)科總體上,特別是國際關(guān)系學(xué),圍繞著所謂的“分析二分法”進行組織。

分析二分法人為地構(gòu)建和劃分分析空間,例如歐洲/非歐洲、內(nèi)部/外部、國家/帝國、核心區(qū)/殖民地。

最近,在國際關(guān)系學(xué)及其相關(guān)領(lǐng)域,這些二分法受到了質(zhì)疑。我們的文章通過突出兩個相互關(guān)聯(lián)的方

面,為這些討論做出了貢獻并進行了擴展,這兩個方面尚未得到足夠的關(guān)注:首先,是殖民地之間的

聯(lián)系,而不是核心區(qū)與殖民地之間的聯(lián)系;其次,是歐洲/非歐洲二分法的構(gòu)建和再生產(chǎn)。我們探討了

權(quán)力技術(shù)是如何被用來創(chuàng)造可殖民土地的想象,以我們的案例來說,是通過繪圖和使用“空白空間”。

為此,我們追溯了 19 世紀德國殖民話語的兩個事件。第一個事件分析了洪堡傳統(tǒng)中探險的想象,并

描繪了歐洲之外的空間,即非洲,作為空白空間。第二個事件重建了保羅·朗漢斯的地圖工作,他專

注于繪制中歐和東歐的“德意志領(lǐng)域”(Deutschtum)。對比這兩個事件顯示了這些空間(非洲和歐

洲東部)之間的相互聯(lián)系,以及如何運用技術(shù),例如空白空間,來創(chuàng)造可殖民土地。

【原文】The social sciences and humanities in general and International Relations (IR) specifically are

organised around what has been called ‘a(chǎn)nalytic bifurcation’. Analytic bifurcations artificially structure and

divide analytic spaces into, for example, Europe/non-Europe, inside/outside, state/empire, and

metropole/colony. Recently, these bifurcations have been problematised within IR and adjacent fields. Our

article contributes to and extends these discussions by foregrounding two interrelated aspects that have not

received sufficient attention: first, connections between colonies rather than between metropole and colony

and, second, the construction and reproduction of the bifurcation of Europe/non-Europe. We explore how

technologies of power, in our case mapping and the use of ‘blank spaces’, were used to create imaginaries of

colonisable land. To do so, we trace two episodes from nineteenth-century German colonial discourse. The

first episode analyses imaginaries of exploration in the Humboldtian tradition and how these imaginaries depict

spaces outside of Europe, namely in Africa, as blank spaces. The second episode reconstructs the cartographic

work of Paul Langhans, who focused on mapping ‘Germandom’ (Deutschtum) in Central and Eastern Europe.

Juxtaposing these two episodes shows the interconnectedness between these spaces (Africa and the European

East) and how techniques such as blank spaces were applied to create colonisable land.

8.構(gòu)建受害者:現(xiàn)代世界秩序中的苦難與地位(Constructing victims: Suffering and status

in modern world order)

Alex Vandermaas-Peeler,喬治華盛頓大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士候選人

Jelena Subotic,佐治亞州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

Michael Barnett,喬治華盛頓大學(xué)教授

【摘要】世界秩序中地位的基礎(chǔ)是什么?通常認為地位源于實力,即便實力被重新構(gòu)想為社會性和規(guī)

范性,而不僅僅是物質(zhì)性的。然而,地位也可能來自于被感知的弱點——它被賦予那些被認為是“受

害者”的人。我們對世界事務(wù)中地位的研究做出了四個理論貢獻。首先,我們探討了受害者類別的產(chǎn)

第136頁

130

生方式。其次,我們通過增加受害者類別,擴展了世界事務(wù)中地位的可能來源。第三,關(guān)注受害者地

位進一步表明,地位獨立于物質(zhì)力量。最后,作為地位的受害者身份展示了一種悖論,即權(quán)力依賴于

被感知的無力感。我們用現(xiàn)代國際政治中受害者地位的三個特征來闡釋這些論點:以色列對受害者地

位欲望的變化,剛果理想受害者的性別建構(gòu),以及波斯尼亞關(guān)于受害者屬性的等級制。

【原文】What is the basis of status in world order? Status is assumed to come from strength, even if strength

is reconfigured to be social and normative, not just material. Status, however, can also come from perceived

weakness – it is conferred to those recognised as ‘victims’. We make four theoretical contributions to the

scholarship on status in world affairs. First, we examine how the category of victim is produced. Two, we

expand the possible sources of status in world affairs by adding the category of victim. Three, focus on

victimhood status further demonstrates that status is independent of material power. Lastly, victimhood as

status exhibits the paradox that power depends on perceived powerlessness. We illustrate these arguments with

three features of victim status in modern international politics: the changing desirability of victim status in

Israel, the gendered construction of ideal victim in the Congo, and the hierarchy of victimhood in Bosnia.

9.官僚制度與有爭議國家外交的日常實踐:科索沃的典型案例(Bureaucracy and the

everyday practices of contested state diplomacy: The paradigmatic case of Kosovo)

Tobias Wille,法蘭克福大學(xué)國際安全學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】有爭議國家的代表——即那些對主權(quán)國家地位的主張未得到國際社會或未完全得到國際社會

認可的領(lǐng)土——經(jīng)常會做出重大努力進行外交活動。最近有兩種文獻開始探索這些外交活動,一種關(guān)

注于叛軍和分裂主義運動的“叛亂外交”,另一種關(guān)注于全球政治中的“臨界行動者”。然而,這兩

種文獻以非常不同的方式定義了這一現(xiàn)象,即作為工具行動或文化表演,并且在很大程度上沒有考慮

彼此的見解。作者認為,如果我們理解現(xiàn)代外交的本質(zhì)作為一套官僚實踐,我們可以更好地理解有爭

議國家外交。作為官僚組織中的一種常規(guī)化過程,現(xiàn)代外交既促成了特定的決策,也維持了國家作為

合法權(quán)力所在地的現(xiàn)實。因此,有爭議的國家的代表有充分的理由為他們的外交建立或多或少的基本

官僚機構(gòu)。作者使用科索沃外交政策機構(gòu)的歷史作為一個典型案例,以展示日常官僚實踐如何融合工

具行動和文化展演,并進一步理論化在有爭議的國家外交中“政治”和“技術(shù)”行為的相互作用。

【原文】The representatives of contested states – that is, territories whose claim to sovereign statehood is not,

or is not fully, recognised by the international society of states – often make significant efforts to engage in

diplomacy. Two literatures have recently begun to explore these diplomatic activities, one focusing on the

‘rebel diplomacy’ of insurgents and secessionist movements, the other on ‘liminal actors’ in global politics.

However, these two literatures have defined the phenomenon in very different ways, namely, as either

instrumental action or cultural performance, and study it largely without regard to each other's insights. My

argument in this article is that contested state diplomacy can be better understood if we appreciate the nature

of modern diplomacy as a set of bureaucratic practices. As a routinised process within a bureaucratic

organisation, modern diplomacy both gives rise to specific decisions and sustains the reality of the state as the

locus of legitimate power. The representatives of contested states therefore have strong reasons to set up more

or less rudimentary bureaucracies for their diplomacy. I use the history of Kosovo's foreign policy institutions

第137頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

131

as a paradigmatic case to demonstrate how everyday bureaucratic practices fuse instrumental action and

cultural performance and further theorise the interplay of ‘political’ and ‘technical’ conduct in contested state

diplomacy.

10.走向民主情報監(jiān)督:限制、實踐、斗爭(Towards democratic intelligence oversight:

Limits, practices, struggles)

Ronja Kniep,柏林自由大學(xué)博士候選人;Lina Ewert,Berliner Ideenlabor 咨詢師

Bernardino Leon Reyes,巴黎政治學(xué)院博士研究員;Félix Tréguer,法國國家科學(xué)研究中心副研究員

Emma Mc Cluskey,威斯敏斯特大學(xué)犯罪學(xué)講師;Claudia Aradau,倫敦國王學(xué)院戰(zhàn)爭研究系教授

【摘要】盡管“民主”一詞在民主情報監(jiān)督中常被使用,但其含義很少被詳細闡述。本文將有關(guān)情報

監(jiān)督的問題置于關(guān)于民主的含義和實踐的更廣泛辯論中。文章認為,情報監(jiān)督文獻傾向于隱含或明確

地遵循自由主義和技術(shù)官僚主義的民主觀念,這限制了學(xué)術(shù)界和實踐中對監(jiān)督的理解。因此,監(jiān)督主

要被理解為一種專家、制度性且部分排他性的安排,其目的是在國家層面上平衡個體自由和集體安全,

從而建立情報工作的合法性和信任。于是,“健康”或“高效”的民主監(jiān)督變成了技術(shù)專長、無黨派

性和保守秘密能力的問題。通過分析在德國、英國和美國圍繞什么構(gòu)成情報監(jiān)督的三個斗爭時刻,本

文闡明了它們的民主利害關(guān)系。通過基于實踐的方法,本文認為監(jiān)督采取了更多對抗性、有爭議性、

跨國和公開的形式。然而,這些民主實踐重新配置監(jiān)督仍然受到主導(dǎo)觀點的爭議或限制,這些觀點定

義了什么構(gòu)成合法有效的情報監(jiān)督。

【原文】Despite its common usage, the meaning of ‘democratic’ in democratic intelligence oversight has

rarely been spelled out. In this article, we situate questions regarding intelligence oversight within broader

debates about the meanings and practices of democracy. We argue that the literature on intelligence oversight

has tended to implicitly or explicitly follow liberal and technocratic ideas of democracy, which have limited

the understanding of oversight both in academia and in practice. Thus, oversight is mostly understood as an

expert, institutional and partially exclusive arrangement that is supposed to strike a balance between individual

freedom and collective security, with the goal of establishing the legitimacy of and trust in intelligence work

in a national setting. ‘Healthy’ or ‘efficient’ democratic oversight then becomes a matter of technical expertise,

non-partisanship, and the ability to guard secrets. By analysing three moments of struggle around what counts

as intelligence oversight across Germany, the UK, and the US, this article elucidates their democratic stakes.

Through a practice-based approach, we argue that oversight takes much more agonistic, contentious,

transnational, and public forms. However, these democratic practices reconfiguring oversight remain contested

or contained by dominant views on what constitutes legitimate and effective intelligence oversight.

【編譯:徐一凡】

【責(zé)任編輯:嚴瑾怡】

第138頁

132

《政治分析》(Political Analysis)

Political Analysis,Vol. 32, No. 1, 2024

1. 調(diào)查權(quán)重的敏感性分析(Sensitivity Analysis for Survey Weights)

Erin Hartman,加州大學(xué)伯克利分校政治學(xué)助理教授

Melody Huang,加州大學(xué)伯克利分校統(tǒng)計系,哈佛大學(xué)博士后研究員

【摘要】調(diào)查加權(quán)允許研究人員利用測量的人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)協(xié)變量來解釋調(diào)查樣本中由于單位無響應(yīng)或方

便抽樣而產(chǎn)生的偏差。遺憾的是,在實踐中,不可能知道估計的調(diào)查加權(quán)數(shù)是否足以減輕因未觀察到

的混雜因素或加權(quán)中使用的函數(shù)形式不正確而導(dǎo)致的偏差。本文提出了兩種排除重要協(xié)變量的敏感性

分析:(1)針對部分觀測到的混雜因素(即在調(diào)查樣本中測量到的變量,但未在目標人群中測量到)

的敏感性分析;(2)完全未觀測到的混雜因素(即未在調(diào)查或目標人群中測量到的變量)的敏感性分

析。本文對此類混雜因素可能造成的偏差進行了圖表和數(shù)字總結(jié),并引入了一種基準測試方法,使研

究人員能夠?qū)ζ浣Y(jié)果的敏感性進行定量推理。本文使用州一級 2020 年美國總統(tǒng)大選民意調(diào)查來演示

所提出的敏感性分析。

【原文】Survey weighting allows researchers to account for bias in survey samples, due to unit nonresponse

or convenience sampling, using measured demographic covariates. Unfortunately, in practice, it is impossible

to know whether the estimated survey weights are sufficient to alleviate concerns about bias due to unobserved

confounders or incorrect functional forms used in weighting. In the following paper, we propose two

sensitivity analyses for the exclusion of important covariates: (1) a sensitivity analysis for partially observed

confounders (i.e., variables measured across the survey sample, but not the target population) and (2) a

sensitivity analysis for fully unobserved confounders (i.e., variables not measured in either the survey or the

target population). We provide graphical and numerical summaries of the potential bias that arises from such

confounders, and introduce a benchmarking approach that allows researchers to quantitatively reason about

the sensitivity of their results. We demonstrate our proposed sensitivity analyses using state-level 2020 U.S.

Presidential Election polls.

2. 跨錯位空間單元的集成數(shù)據(jù)(Integrating Data Across Misaligned Spatial Units)

Yuri M. Zhukov,密歇根大學(xué)政治學(xué)系副教授

《政治分析》(Political Analysis)發(fā)表同行評審的文章,

這些文章提供了政治方法論一般領(lǐng)域的原創(chuàng)性和重大進

展,包括定量和定性方法論方法。它是政治方法論學(xué)會和

美國政治科學(xué)協(xié)會政治方法論分會的官方期刊。

第139頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

133

Jason S. Byers,杜克大學(xué)社會科學(xué)研究所研究員

Marty A. Davidson II,密歇根大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士

Ken Kollman,密歇根大學(xué)政治研究中心(社會研究所)教授

【摘要】感興趣的理論單位通常與可用數(shù)據(jù)的空間單位不一致。這個問題在政治學(xué)中普遍存在,特別

是在地方實證研究中,需要整合不兼容的地理單元(例如行政區(qū)域、選區(qū)和網(wǎng)格單元)的數(shù)據(jù)??朔?/p>

這一挑戰(zhàn)不僅需要研究人員調(diào)整實證單位和理論單位的規(guī)模,還要了解這種對測量誤差和統(tǒng)計推斷的

支持變化的后果。本文展示了變換值的準確性和回歸系數(shù)的估計如何取決于嵌套程度(即單元是否完

全且整齊地相互嵌套)以及源單元和目標單元的相對規(guī)模(即聚合、分解、和混合)。本文引入了簡

單的、非參數(shù)的相對嵌套和尺度測量方法,作為空間變換復(fù)雜性和誤差敏感性的事前指標。通過使用

選舉數(shù)據(jù)和蒙特卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo simulations),證明了這些措施可以強有力地預(yù)測多種支持率

變化方法的轉(zhuǎn)換質(zhì)量。提出了多種驗證程序并提供開源軟件,以使轉(zhuǎn)換選項更易于訪問、定制和直觀。

【原文】Theoretical units of interest often do not align with the spatial units at which data are available. This

problem is pervasive in political science, particularly in subnational empirical research that requires integrating

data across incompatible geographic units (e.g., administrative areas, electoral constituencies, and grid cells).

Overcoming this challenge requires researchers not only to align the scale of empirical and theoretical units,

but also to understand the consequences of this change of support for measurement error and statistical

inference. We show how the accuracy of transformed values and the estimation of regression coefficients

depend on the degree of nesting (i.e., whether units fall completely and neatly inside each other) and on the

relative scale of source and destination units (i.e., aggregation, disaggregation, and hybrid). We introduce

simple, nonparametric measures of relative nesting and scale, as ex ante indicators of spatial transformation

complexity and error susceptibility. Using election data and Monte Carlo simulations, we show that these

measures are strongly predictive of transformation quality across multiple change-of-support methods. We

propose several validation procedures and provide open-source software to make transformation options more

accessible, customizable, and intuitive.

3. 一切盡在不言中:基于性格的宗教推斷方法(It’s All in the Name: A Character-Based

Approach to Infer Religion)

Rochana Chaturvedi,伊利諾伊大學(xué)芝加哥分校計算機科學(xué)系研究員

Sugat Chaturvedi,蘇塞克斯大學(xué)科學(xué)政策研究室研究員

【摘要】關(guān)于群體身份的大規(guī)模微觀數(shù)據(jù)對于身份政治和暴力研究至關(guān)重要,但發(fā)展中國家基本上還

沒有這方面的數(shù)據(jù)。本文使用個人姓名來推斷南亞的宗教信仰——在南亞,宗教信仰是一個突出的社

會分野,但有關(guān)宗教信仰的分類數(shù)據(jù)卻很少?,F(xiàn)有工作使用基于字典的方法來預(yù)測宗教信仰,因此無

法對未見過的姓名進行分類。本文提供的基于字符的機器學(xué)習(xí)模型,可以高精度地對未見過的姓名進

行分類。該模型速度更快,因此可以擴展到大型數(shù)據(jù)集,同時,使用分層相關(guān)性傳播技術(shù)解釋了其中

一個模型的分類決策。分類器學(xué)習(xí)到的字符模式植根于名稱的語言起源。本文利用印度選舉的歷史數(shù)

據(jù)來推斷候選人的宗教信仰,并觀察到了穆斯林代表性呈下降趨勢。該方法可用于檢測世界各地的身

份群體,這些群體的基本名稱可能具有不同的語言根源。

【原文】Large-scale microdata on group identity are critical for studies on identity politics and violence but

remain largely unavailable for developing countries. We use personal names to infer religion in South Asia—

where religion is a salient social division, and yet, disaggregated data on it are scarce. Existing work predicts

religion using a dictionary-based method and, therefore, cannot classify unseen names. We provide character-

第140頁

134

based machine-learning models that can classify unseen names too with high accuracy. Our models are also

much faster and, hence, scalable to large datasets. We explain the classification decisions of one of our models

using the layer-wise relevance propagation technique. The character patterns learned by the classifier are

rooted in the linguistic origins of names. We apply these to infer the religion of electoral candidates using

historical data on Indian elections and observe a trend of declining Muslim representation. Our approach can

be used to detect identity groups across the world for whom the underlying names might have different

linguistic roots.

4. 分層貝葉斯 Aldrich-McKelvey 縮放法(Hierarchical Bayesian Aldrich–McKelvey

Scaling)

J?rgen B?lstad,奧斯陸大學(xué)政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】估計政治行為者的意識形態(tài)立場是回答政治科學(xué)中一系列實質(zhì)性問題的重要一步。調(diào)查量表

為此類估計提供了有用的數(shù)據(jù),但也提出了挑戰(zhàn),因為受訪者往往會對量表做出不同的解釋。AldrichMcKelvey 模型解決了這一難題,但該模型現(xiàn)有仍存在明顯缺陷。本文以貝葉斯模型(BAM)為重點,

通過分析表明該模型容易過度擬合,并且對于相當一部分受訪者來說結(jié)果不佳。針對這些缺點,本文

開發(fā)了分層貝葉斯模型(HBAM)。新版本將自我位置作為數(shù)據(jù)納入似然函數(shù),同時還對似然進行了

修改,以允許尺度翻轉(zhuǎn)。所得模型在實際數(shù)據(jù)和蒙特卡羅研究中均優(yōu)于現(xiàn)有的貝葉斯版本。為了便于

將來使用,研究人員提供了一個在 Stan 中實現(xiàn)模型的 R 軟件包。

【原文】Estimating the ideological positions of political actors is an important step toward answering a number

of substantive questions in political science. Survey scales provide useful data for such estimation, but also

present a challenge, as respondents tend to interpret the scales differently. The Aldrich–McKelvey model

addresses this challenge, but the existing implementations of the model still have notable shortcomings.

Focusing on the Bayesian version of the model (BAM), the analyses in this article demonstrate that the model

is prone to overfitting and yields poor results for a considerable share of respondents. The article addresses

these shortcomings by developing a hierarchical Bayesian version of the model (HBAM). The new version

treats self-placements as data to be included in the likelihood function while also modifying the likelihood to

allow for scale flipping. The resulting model outperforms the existing Bayesian version both on real data and

in a Monte Carlo study. An R package implementing the models in Stan is provided to facilitate future use.

5. 測量數(shù)據(jù)的多級校準加權(quán)(Multilevel Calibration Weighting for Survey Data)

Eli Ben-Michael,卡內(nèi)基梅隆大學(xué)統(tǒng)計與數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)系和亨氏信息系統(tǒng)與公共政策學(xué)院助理教授

Avi Feller,加州大學(xué)伯克利分校公共政策與統(tǒng)計學(xué)副教授

Erin Hartman,加州大學(xué)伯克利分校政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】在 2016 年 11 月的美國總統(tǒng)選舉中,許多州級民意調(diào)查,尤其是中西部、北部地區(qū)的民意調(diào)

查,錯誤地預(yù)測了獲勝候選人。對這一民調(diào)失誤的一個主要解釋是,傳統(tǒng)民意調(diào)查回應(yīng)率的急劇下降

導(dǎo)致人們更加依賴統(tǒng)計方法來調(diào)整相應(yīng)的偏差,而這些方法未能調(diào)整教育程度、種族和地理區(qū)域等關(guān)

鍵變量之間的重要交互作用。對于傳統(tǒng)的調(diào)查方法而言,找到能解釋重要交互作用的校準權(quán)重仍然具

有挑戰(zhàn)性。傾斜通常僅能平衡邊際,而精確平衡所有相互作用的后分層法僅適用于少數(shù)變量。在本文

中,作者提出了多層次校準加權(quán)法,它對邊際平衡實施嚴格的平衡約束,對高階交互實施較寬松的約

束。這既包含了后分層法的一些優(yōu)點,同時保留了傾斜的保證。隨后,本文通過靈活的結(jié)果模型糾正

了由于寬松約束而產(chǎn)生的偏差;因此將這種方法稱為“后分層雙重回歸”本文使用這些工具重新評估了

第141頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

135

2016 年美國總統(tǒng)大選中的大規(guī)模選民意向調(diào)查,發(fā)現(xiàn)所提出的方法取得了有意義的成果。該方法可在

multical R 軟件包中找到。

【原文】In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state-level public opinion polls, particularly

in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling

miss is that the precipitous decline in traditional polling response rates led to greater reliance on statistical

methods to adjust for the corresponding bias—and that these methods failed to adjust for important interactions

between key variables like educational attainment, race, and geographic region. Finding calibration weights

that account for important interactions remains challenging with traditional survey methods: raking typically

balances the margins alone, while post-stratification, which exactly balances all interactions, is only feasible

for a small number of variables. In this paper, we propose multilevel calibration weighting, which enforces

tight balance constraints for marginal balance and looser constraints for higher-order interactions. This

incorporates some of the benefits of post-stratification while retaining the guarantees of raking. We then

correct for the bias due to the relaxed constraints via a flexible outcome model; we call this approach “double

regression with post-stratification.” We use these tools to re-assess a large-scale survey of voter intention in

the 2016 U.S. presidential election, finding meaningful gains from the proposed methods. The approach is

available in the multical R package.

6. 更少注釋,更多分類:利用深度遷移學(xué)習(xí)和 BERT-NLI 解決監(jiān)督機器學(xué)習(xí)的數(shù)據(jù)稀缺

問題(Less Annotating, More Classifying: Addressing the Data Scarcity Issue of Supervised

Machine Learning with Deep Transfer Learning and BERT-NLI)

Moritz Laurer,阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)政治文本分析博士

Wouter van Atteveldt,阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)社會科學(xué)學(xué)院傳播科學(xué)系教授

Andreu Casas,阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)傳播科學(xué)系博士后

Kasper Welbers,阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)傳播科學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】監(jiān)督機器學(xué)習(xí)是一種越來越流行的分析大型政治文本語料庫的工具。監(jiān)督機器學(xué)習(xí)的主要缺

點是需要數(shù)千個人工注釋的訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)點。這個問題在社會科學(xué)領(lǐng)域尤其重要,因為大多數(shù)新的研究問

題都需要新的訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)來完成針對特定研究問題的新任務(wù)。本文分析了深度遷移學(xué)習(xí)如何通過積累語

言模型中的“先驗知識”來幫助應(yīng)對這一挑戰(zhàn)。像 BERT 這樣的模型可以通過預(yù)訓(xùn)練(“語言知識”)來

學(xué)習(xí)統(tǒng)計語言模式,并且通過對自然語言的推理(NLI;“任務(wù)知識”)等通用任務(wù)進行訓(xùn)練來減少對

特定任務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的依賴。本文在八項任務(wù)中展示了遷移學(xué)習(xí)的優(yōu)勢。在這八項任務(wù)中,BERT-NLI 模型

在 100 到 2500 個文本上進行了微調(diào),比沒有進行遷移學(xué)習(xí)的經(jīng)典模型平均表現(xiàn)好 10.7 到 18.3 個百分

點。本文的研究表明,在 500 個文本上進行微調(diào)的 BERT-NLI 與在大約 5000 個文本上訓(xùn)練的經(jīng)典模

型性能相近,此外,本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)遷移學(xué)習(xí)在不平衡數(shù)據(jù)上的效果尤為顯著。最后,討論了遷移學(xué)習(xí)的

局限性,并概述了政治科學(xué)研究的新機遇。

【原文】Supervised machine learning is an increasingly popular tool for analyzing large political text corpora.

The main disadvantage of supervised machine learning is the need for thousands of manually annotated

training data points. This issue is particularly important in the social sciences where most new research

questions require new training data for a new task tailored to the specific research question. This paper analyses

how deep transfer learning can help address this challenge by accumulating “prior knowledge” in language

models. Models like BERT can learn statistical language patterns through pre-training (“l(fā)anguage

knowledge”), and reliance on task-specific data can be reduced by training on universal tasks like natural

language inference (NLI; “task knowledge”). We demonstrate the benefits of transfer learning on a wide range

第142頁

136

of eight tasks. Across these eight tasks, our BERT-NLI model fine-tuned on 100 to 2,500 texts performs on

average 10.7 to 18.3 percentage points better than classical models without transfer learning. Our study

indicates that BERT-NLI fine-tuned on 500 texts achieves similar performance as classical models trained on

around 5,000 texts. Moreover, we show that transfer learning works particularly well on imbalanced data. We

conclude by discussing limitations of transfer learning and by outlining new opportunities for political science

research.

7. 衡量比例代表制的接近度(Measuring Closeness in Proportional Representation

Systems)

Simon Luechinger,盧塞恩大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

Mark Schelker,弗里堡大學(xué)公共經(jīng)濟學(xué)系主任

Lukas Schmid,南加州大學(xué)馬歇爾商學(xué)院金融和商業(yè)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

【摘要】本文提供了封閉形式的解決方案來衡量候選人在比例代表制(PR)中的選舉接近度。與多數(shù)

制相比,公共關(guān)系制中的親密程度不能直接從選票中推斷出來。本文的措施反映了開放名單制度和封

閉名單制度以及兩個主要席位分配機制系統(tǒng)的選舉接近程度。這一統(tǒng)一措施量化了當選(非當選)候

選人的選票盈余(不足)。它可以作為回歸不連續(xù)設(shè)計中的分配變量或作為選舉競爭力的衡量標準。

為了說明,本文估計了瑞士、洪都拉斯和挪威議會的現(xiàn)任優(yōu)勢。

【原文】We provide closed-form solutions for measuring electoral closeness of candidates in proportional

representation (PR) systems. In contrast to plurality systems, closeness in PR systems cannot be directly

inferred from votes. Our measure captures electoral closeness for both open- and closed-list systems and for

both main families of seat allocation mechanisms. This unified measure quantifies the vote surplus (shortfall)

for elected (nonelected) candidates. It can serve as an assignment variable in regression discontinuity designs

or as a measure of electoral competitiveness. For illustration, we estimate the incumbency advantage for the

parliaments in Switzerland, Honduras, and Norway.

8. 關(guān)系:文本語義捕捉政治和經(jīng)濟敘事(RELATIO: Text Semantics Capture Political

and Economic Narratives)

Elliott Ash,蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院副教授

Germain Gauthier,博科尼大學(xué)社會和政治科學(xué)系經(jīng)濟學(xué)助理教授

Philine Widmer,蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院博士后研究員

【摘要】社會科學(xué)家對敘事(小說、政治和生活中的故事)如何塑造信仰、行為和政府政策越來越感

興趣。本文提供了一種無監(jiān)督的方法來量化文本文檔中的潛在敘事結(jié)構(gòu)。本文的新軟件包 RELATIO

識別連貫的實體組,并在文本中映射它們之間的明確關(guān)系。本文為美國國會記錄提供了一個應(yīng)用程序

來分析近幾十年來的政治和經(jīng)濟敘事。本文的分析強調(diào)了政治話語中敘事的動態(tài)、情緒、兩極分化和

相互聯(lián)系。

【原文】Social scientists have become increasingly interested in how narratives—the stories in fiction, politics,

and life—shape beliefs, behavior, and government policies. This paper provides an unsupervised method to

quantify latent narrative structures in text documents. Our new software package RELATIO identifies coherent

entity groups and maps explicit relations between them in the text. We provide an application to the U.S.

Congressional Record to analyze political and economic narratives in recent decades. Our analysis highlights

the dynamics, sentiment, polarization, and interconnectedness of narratives in political discourse.

第143頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

137

9. 用更少的觀察值選擇更多信息的訓(xùn)練集(Selecting More Informative Training Sets

with Fewer Observations)

Aaron R. Kaufman,紐約大學(xué)阿布扎比分校政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】在社會科學(xué)中,標準的文本-數(shù)據(jù)工作流包括確定一組要標記的文檔,使用研究助理從這些文

檔中隨機選擇一個樣本來標記,訓(xùn)練一個有監(jiān)督的學(xué)習(xí)者來標記剩余的文檔,并使用標準的準確性指

標來驗證該模型的性能。這其中最耗費資源的部分是手工標記:仔細閱讀文檔,培訓(xùn)研究助理,并付

錢給編碼員來標記重復(fù)或更多的文檔。本文表明,在預(yù)測(1)美國行政命令重要性和(2)社交媒體

上金融情緒的應(yīng)用中,手工編碼經(jīng)過算法選擇的樣本(而不是簡單的隨機樣本)可以將模型性能提高

50%以上,或?qū)⑹止ぞ幋a成本降低三分之二。本文附帶了開源軟件來實現(xiàn)這些工具,希望這些工具可

以使監(jiān)督學(xué)習(xí)更便宜,更容易被研究人員使用。

【原文】A standard text-as-data workflow in the social sciences involves identifying a set of documents to

be labeled, selecting a random sample of them to label using research assistants, training a supervised learner

to label the remaining documents, and validating that model’s performance using standard accuracy metrics.

The most resource-intensive component of this is the hand-labeling: carefully reading documents, training

research assistants, and paying human coders to label documents in duplicate or more. We show that handcoding an algorithmically selected rather than a simple-random sample can improve model performance above

baseline by as much as 50%, or reduce hand-coding costs by up to two-thirds, in applications predicting (1)

U.S. executive-order significance and (2) financial sentiment on social media. We accompany this manuscript

with open-source software to implement these tools, which we hope can make supervised learning cheaper

and more accessible to researchers.

10. 模擬參與方份額(Towards docratic intelligence oversight: Limits, practices, struggles)

Denis Cohen,曼海姆大學(xué)曼海姆歐洲社會研究中心(MZES)數(shù)據(jù)和方法部門高級研究員

Chris Hanretty,倫敦大學(xué)皇家霍洛威學(xué)院政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】本文解決了一個給定規(guī)模的政黨系統(tǒng)的席位和選票份額的模擬問題。展示了如何使用無序和

有序的狄利克雷分布生成這些共享。本文表明,taagpera 和 Allik(2006, Electoral Studies 25, 696-713)

中描述的規(guī)則所給出的平均向量分布幾乎與真實世界的數(shù)據(jù)一樣適合,其中每個等級/系統(tǒng)規(guī)模組合

都有一個參數(shù)。

【原文】We tackle the problem of simulating seat- and vote-shares for a party system of a given size. We

show how these shares can be generated using unordered and ordered Dirichlet distributions. We show that a

distribution with a mean vector given by the rule described in Taagepera and Allik (2006, Electoral Studies

25, 696–713) fits real-world data almost as well as a saturated model where there is a parameter for each

rank/system size combination.

11. 多數(shù)地位在勢均力敵的選舉研究中的作用(The Role of Majority Status in Close

Election Studies)

Matteo Alpino,意大利銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)家

Marta Crispino,意大利銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)和統(tǒng)計學(xué)博士

【摘要】許多研究利用回歸不連續(xù)框架中的接近選舉來確定黨派效應(yīng),即給定政黨執(zhí)政對某些結(jié)果的

影響。本文認為,當在單一成員選區(qū)進行時,這種設(shè)計可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)一種復(fù)合效應(yīng):黨派效應(yīng)加上多數(shù)

第144頁

138

地位效應(yīng),即由立法多數(shù)成員代表的效應(yīng)。本文提供了一個簡單的策略來解構(gòu)這兩者的糾纏,并通過

模擬進行了測試。最后,用實際數(shù)據(jù)展示了這個問題的經(jīng)驗相關(guān)性。

【原文】Many studies exploit close elections in a regression discontinuity framework to identify partisan

effects, that is, the effect of having a given party in office on some outcome. We argue that, when conducted

on single-member districts, such design may identify a compound effect: the partisan effect, plus the majority

status effect, that is, the effect of being represented by a member of the legislative majority. We provide a

simple strategy to disentangle the two, and test it with simulations. Finally, we show the empirical relevance

of this issue using real data.

【編譯:鄒梓軒 宋欣蔚】

【責(zé)任編輯:封欣怡】

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》(Cambridge Review of International Affairs)

Cambridge Review of International Affairs,Vol. 37, No. 1, 2024

1.作為存在框架的國家人格和本體安全:超越身份,發(fā)現(xiàn)主權(quán)(State personhood and

ontological security as a framework of existence: moving beyond identity, discovering

sovereignty)

Nina C. Krickel-Choi,瑞典國際事務(wù)研究所副研究員,斯德哥爾摩大學(xué)博士及兼職講師

【摘要】在建構(gòu)主義研究中,“自我”和“身份”的概念常常被隱含地混為一談,限制了我們對重要

理論問題的理解。本體論安全研究(OSS)文獻提供了一個這樣的例子,通常將對“自我安全”的擔(dān)憂

簡化為身份問題,從而限制了 OSS 的分析范圍。本文借鑒萊恩(Laing)和吉登斯(Giddens)的著

作,闡述了保持“自我”和“身份”在分析上的區(qū)別的理由。將本體論安全理解為一個旨在肯定自我

存在的多維框架,它將“身份”視為本體論安全的一個維度,并從人格的角度概念化“自我”。這樣

的解讀使我們能夠?qū)⒅鳈?quán)的話語性和儀式性制度理解為一個存在主義框架,所有國家的人格以及本體

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評論》(Cambridge Review of International

Affairs)是一份同行評審期刊,發(fā)表關(guān)于國際事務(wù)的創(chuàng)新

學(xué)術(shù)成果。其涵蓋社會科學(xué)領(lǐng)域,包括國際關(guān)系、歷史、

法律、政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)、地區(qū)研究、發(fā)展研究和性別研究。它

致力于采用多樣化的方法和方法,并鼓勵學(xué)術(shù)界和政策制

定者提交多學(xué)科和跨學(xué)科的貢獻。其 2022-2023 年的影響

因子為 1.4,在 96 種國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 62。

第145頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

139

論安全都依賴于這個框架。因此,OSS 將受益于考慮身份之外的本體安全性。除此之外,本文還表明,

更清晰地區(qū)分“自我”和“身份”闡明了國際關(guān)系中關(guān)于國家人格的爭論,更多地關(guān)注這些關(guān)鍵概念

將對更普遍的建構(gòu)主義研究有所幫助。

【原文】The concepts of ‘self’ and ‘identity’ are often implicitly conflated in constructivist research, limiting

our understanding of important theoretical issues. The Ontological Security Studies (OSS) literature provides

one example of this, often reducing a concern with ‘security of the self’ to a matter of identity, thereby limiting

OSS’ analytical reach. This article draws from the writings of Laing and Giddens to make the case for keeping

‘self’ and ‘identity’ analytically distinct. Understanding ontological security as a multidimensional framework

meant to affirm the self’s existence, it proposes to see ‘identity’ as just one dimension of ontological security,

and to conceptualise ‘self’ in terms of personhood. Such a reading allows us to grasp the discursive and

ritualistic institution of sovereignty as an existential framework on which the personhood, and therefore

ontological security, of all states depends. Thus, OSS would benefit from considering ontological security

beyond identity. Beyond this, the article shows that distinguishing more clearly between ‘self’ and ‘identity’

illuminates the debate on state personhood in IR, indicating that paying more attention to these key concepts

would be helpful for constructivist research more generally.

2.真誠友誼對國際政治的重要性:中國如何尋求重要的友誼(The importance of bona fide

friendships to international politics: China’s quest for friendships that matter)(略)

Nicholas Ross Smith,尼古拉斯·羅斯·史密斯 ;Tracey Fallon,特雷西·法倫

3.海洋流動和海洋鏈:國際關(guān)系理論中的海上力量和海洋帝國(Ocean flows and chains:

sea power and maritime empires within IR theory)

Kevin Blachford,英國倫敦國王學(xué)院聯(lián)合軍種指揮與參謀學(xué)院國防研究教育講師

【摘要】國際關(guān)系理論建立在領(lǐng)土假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上,這些假設(shè)塑造了我們對國家本質(zhì)、國家體系的興起

以及國際概念本身的理解。本文首先設(shè)問:如果我們不再局限于有界領(lǐng)土,而考慮海洋和海域的影響,

結(jié)果會怎樣?人類與海洋的互動塑造了歷史,從最早的已知政體到早期的現(xiàn)代史,尤其是一系列海上

強國的崛起。正是這些跨越海洋的歷史進程從本質(zhì)上塑造了我們今天所知的現(xiàn)代世界,然而,實際上

海洋領(lǐng)域在國際關(guān)系理論中是缺失的。安全學(xué)者可能會討論海盜行為或海軍力量的投射,但本文旨在

提供一個更全面的處理方法,將海洋的視角納入國際關(guān)系理論。本文對現(xiàn)代早期海洋帝國的考察展現(xiàn)

了大英帝國是如何通過尋求控制海洋流動和環(huán)流而崛起的。

【原文】IR theory rests on territorial assumptions which shape our understanding of the nature of the state,

the rise of the state system and the very concept of the international. The following paper asks, what if we

moved away from a fixation on bounded territory to consider the influence of oceans and the maritime sphere?

Humanity’s interaction with the sea has shaped history from the earliest known polities and early modern

history, in particular, saw the rise of several great maritime powers. It was these movements across oceans

which essentially shaped the modern world we know today, yet, the maritime sphere is virtually absent from

第146頁

140

IR theory. Security scholars may discuss piracy or projecting naval power, but this article aims to provide a

more comprehensive treatment of incorporating a view of the oceans into IR theory. An examination of early

modern maritime empires shows how the British empire developed by seeking to control ocean flows and

circulations.

4.國內(nèi)與國外:中國在南海和北極的不同主權(quán)理念(Home versus abroad: China’s

differing sovereignty concepts in the South China Sea and the Arctic)

Liselotte Odgaard,挪威國防研究所教授,哈德遜研究所非常駐高級研究員

【原文】The article contrasts China’s interpretations of sovereignty within its so-called motherland in the

South China Sea and far from China’s shores in the Arctic. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has

maintained a pre-modern definition of Chinese boundaries in the South China Sea as territorial and ocean

frontiers with blurred boundaries to other political authorities. Frontiers were without permanent settlements,

but nomads and fishermen recurringly used them within a Chinese imperial system of reciprocal

socioeconomic responsibilities. The South China Sea forms part of this frontier where the PRC argues that

national Chinese legislation applies. By contrast, far from China’s shores in the Arctic, where China is not the

political centre, the PRC seeks to globalise the region, depicting it as a frontier with blurred boundaries of

political authority. China recognises the sovereignty of Arctic states, but simultaneously applies standard

interpretations of international law to legalise the presence of extra-regional states.

5.在擊敗“軍閥”和保衛(wèi)“藍色家園”之間:討論土耳其利比亞政策的合法性與安全性

話語(Between defeating “the warlord” and defending “the blue homeland”: a discourse

of legitimacy and security in Turkey’s Libya policy)

M. Cüneyt ?z?ahin,土耳其內(nèi)克梅廷·埃爾巴坎大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際關(guān)系系副教授

Cenap ?akmak,耳其阿納多盧大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系國際法和政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】本文試圖通過對土耳其政治精英的話語分析來解釋土耳其對利比亞部分國際化沖突的關(guān)鍵參

與。根據(jù)主題話語分析,本文認為這些精英在與外部受眾(國際社會)溝通時,利用一種關(guān)于合法性

的話語,為聯(lián)合國承認的政府提供政治支持,并宣布哈利法?哈夫塔爾將軍(the General Khalifa Haftar)

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的反對派武裝是非法的。其次,土耳其外交政策精英表達了他們對維護地中海地區(qū)國家安全利益

的承諾,從而通過向內(nèi)部受眾(當?shù)剡x民)發(fā)表安全化的話語來證明土耳其卷入沖突的合理性。關(guān)于

海洋邊界劃界的法律爭端是土耳其與法耶茲·薩拉杰(Fayez al-Sarraj)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的民族團結(jié)政府(the

Government of the National Accord (GNA))和解的基礎(chǔ),也是土耳其堅決反對哈夫塔爾指揮的利比亞

國民軍(the Libyan National Army (LNA))的基礎(chǔ),因為該地區(qū)與這種爭端有關(guān)的錯綜復(fù)雜的關(guān)系網(wǎng)

要求兩國政府之間締結(jié)雙邊協(xié)定。

【原文】This article seeks to explain Turkey’s critical engagement in the partially internationalised conflict

in Libya by relying on a discourse analysis of Turkish political elites. Drawing on thematic discourse analysis,

the authors argue that these elites utilise, in the way in which they communicate to the external audience (the

第147頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

141

international community), a discourse of legitimacy by which they lend political support for the UNrecognised government, and declare the General Khalifa Haftar-led forces, its opponents, as illegitimate.

Secondly, Turkish foreign policy elites express their commitment to preserving national security interests in

the Mediterranean, thereby justifying Turkish involvement in the conflict via a security-laden discourse

addressed to the internal audience (the local constituents). Legal disputes, regarding the delimitation of

maritime boundaries has served as the basis for Turkey’s rapprochement with the Government of the National

Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj, and its staunch opposition to the Libyan National Army (LNA),

commanded by Haftar since the web of intricate relations in the region relevant to such disputes requires the

conclusion of bilateral agreements between the governments.

6.美國深度介入南海的非期然后果(The unintended consequences of US deep engagement

in the South China Sea)

Chin-Hao Huang,耶魯—新加坡國立大學(xué)學(xué)院政治學(xué)副教授

【摘要】深度介入(Deep engagement)——認為力量投射是威懾對手和維護全球安全的最佳政策—

—是美國大戰(zhàn)略的一個普遍主張。本文通過對近期南海沖突進行對照比較,提出理論修正,以檢驗

深度介入的表面邏輯。與之相反,有大量證據(jù)表明,深度介入對于阻止中國在海上爭端中的強制行

為既沒有必要也并不足夠。制約中國的一個更為突出的外生因素是,東盟是否對中國的單方面進取

行為采取共同的威脅認知。當區(qū)域高度團結(jié)時,東盟的集體反應(yīng)會應(yīng)對中國的激烈舉措。因此,對

美國深入介入南海和地區(qū)安全的持續(xù)呼吁需要放在東南亞安全偏好的更廣泛背景下。

【原文】Deep engagement—the claim that power projection is the optimal policy to deter adversaries and

maintain global security—is a commonly asserted proposition for US grand strategy. This article puts forward

a theoretical corrective by carrying out a controlled comparison of recent conflicts in the South China Sea to

test the logic of deep engagement at face value. Contrary to its claim, there is considerable evidence that deep

engagement is neither necessary nor sufficient for deterring China’s coercive behaviour in the maritime dispute.

A more salient exogenous factor for restraining China is whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN) adopts a common threat perception of China’s unilateral provocations. When high levels of regional

unity are observed, ASEAN’s collective response pushes back against China’s bellicose behaviour. Continued

calls for US deep engagement in the South China Sea and regional security would thus need to be placed in

the broader context of Southeast Asia’s security preferences.

【編譯:林怡娉】

【責(zé)任編輯:嚴瑾怡】

第148頁

142

《當代亞洲》(Journal of Contemporary Asia)

Journal of Contemporary Asia,Vol. 54, No.2, 2024

1.印尼警察執(zhí)法是否過度暴力?2005-2014 年警察槍擊事件的動態(tài)(Is Indonesian Police

Violence Excessive? The Dynamics of Police Shootings, 2005–2014)

Jacqui Baker,莫道克大學(xué)亞洲研究中心講師

Rus’an Nasrudin,印度尼西亞大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與社會研究所講師

【摘要】在印度尼西亞,關(guān)于警察使用武力的爭論對如何建構(gòu)和理解警察槍擊問題產(chǎn)生了經(jīng)驗和理論

成果,但仍然缺乏數(shù)據(jù)支持。本文通過分析 2005 年至 2014 年(總統(tǒng)佐科· 維多多第一個任期前的九

年)全國暴力監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)(National Violence Monitoring System)數(shù)據(jù)集各省警察槍擊率的時空模式,

首次為填補這一空缺做出了貢獻。它評估了警察槍擊事件與警察在其工作環(huán)境中對威脅的感知之間的

因果關(guān)系。在調(diào)查期間,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)雖然警察開槍率相對較低,但警察在與槍支有關(guān)的暴力方面占據(jù)明

顯的壟斷地位,而且其工作環(huán)境的威脅感較低。本文在警察槍擊事件和警察對威脅的感知之間未發(fā)現(xiàn)

因果關(guān)系。

【原文】In Indonesia, debates about police use of force occur in the absence of data, with empirical and

theoretical consequences for how the problem of police shootings is framed and understood. This article makes

a first contribution to addressing that absence by analysing the National Violence Monitoring System dataset

for spatial and temporal patterns in police shooting rates across provinces from 2005 to 2014, the nine years

prior to the first term of President Joko Widodo. It assesses the causal relationship between police shootings

and officer perceptions of threat in the environments where they operated threat. For the period surveyed, it is

found that while police shooting rates were comparatively low, police officers had a significant monopoly on

firearm-related violence and operated in environments of low perceived threat. No causal relationship is found

between police shootings and police perceptions of threat.

《當代亞洲》(Journal of Contemporary Asia)是一份 1970

年起出版的學(xué)術(shù)期刊。該期刊每年出版 4 次,內(nèi)容涵蓋亞

洲的經(jīng)濟、政治和社會發(fā)展。目前,期刊的主編為其創(chuàng)辦

人 Peter Limqueco 以及 Kevin Hewison。據(jù) 2020 年的期刊

引證報告,《當代亞洲》的影響因子為 3.261。

第149頁

2024 年第 2 期(總第 14 期)

143

2.等級資本主義中的技能和培訓(xùn):韓國職業(yè)培訓(xùn)的興衰(Skills and Training in

Hierarchical Capitalism: The Rise and Fall of Vocational Training in South Korea)

Timo Fleckenstein,倫敦經(jīng)濟學(xué)院社會政策系教授

Soohyun Christine Lee,倫敦國王學(xué)院歐洲與國際研究系高級講師

Jaehyoung Park,倫敦經(jīng)濟學(xué)院社會政策系博士

【摘要】從教育和增長相輔相成的經(jīng)濟模式中,韓國已經(jīng)形成了一種阻礙經(jīng)濟和社會進步的病態(tài)平

衡。勞動生產(chǎn)率低下和技能不匹配破壞了該國的經(jīng)濟前景,在日益二元化的勞動力市場中,急劇上

升的不平等削弱了社會凝聚力。不同政治派別的政府已經(jīng)意識到這些挑戰(zhàn),并考慮重振職業(yè)教育和

培訓(xùn)(VET)。然而,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),當發(fā)展中國家的集體技能培養(yǎng)被廢除時,大雇主是企業(yè)和政府之間

碎片化聯(lián)盟的核心,并將繼續(xù)破壞任何有意義的職業(yè)技能培養(yǎng)的努力。本文認為,該國的等級生產(chǎn)

制度以及與此相關(guān)的勞動力市場二元化為職業(yè)教育改革的連續(xù)失敗提供了微觀基礎(chǔ);如果不挑戰(zhàn)大型

雇主在韓國政治經(jīng)濟中的主導(dǎo)地位,不解決勞動力市場二元論問題,職業(yè)教育與培訓(xùn)政策改革的努

力可能仍是徒勞的。

【原文】From an economic model in which education and growth reinforced each other, South Korea has

developed a pathological equilibrium holding back economic and social progress. Low labour productivity

and skills mismatch undermine the economic prospects of the country, and sharp rises in inequality in an ever

more dualised labour market erode social cohesion. Governments of different political persuasion have

recognised these challenges, and they have thought to reinvigorate vocational education and training (VET).

However, this article shows that large employers – which were at the heart of a segmentalist coalition between

business and government when collective skills formation of the Developmental State was dismantled –

continue to undermine any efforts of meaningful vocational skills formation. It is argued that the country’s

hierarchical production regime and, related to this, labour market dualisation provide the micro-foundations

for successive failure in VET reform; and without challenging large employers’ dominant position in the

Korean political economy and without addressing labour market dualism, the reform of VET policy can be

expected to remain a futile endeavour.

3.孿生運動:改革后印度的國家、市場和非精英中產(chǎn)階級(Twin Movement: State, Market

and the Non-Elite Middle Class in Post-Reform India)

Surya Prakash Upadhyay,印度理工學(xué)院曼迪人文與社會科學(xué)學(xué)院助理教授

Isha Jha,印度理工學(xué)院曼迪人文與社會科學(xué)學(xué)院博士

【摘要】本文通過印度的非精英階層、普通中產(chǎn)階級與國家機構(gòu)和市場過程的相互作用,探討了 1991

年開始的印度后改革時期的政治經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。本文引入了“孿生運動”這一概念,并修正了波蘭尼關(guān)于

福利和新自由主義國家的差異化領(lǐng)域的雙重運動的概念,它限制了對國家與市場之間形成的隱性關(guān)系

的探索;也限制了國家如何巧妙地使人們訴諸于市場制度和流程;并迫使/鼓勵資本積累,以減輕新自

由主義市場的挑戰(zhàn)。這篇民族志文章將視線聚焦于重新建構(gòu)與新自由主義市場邏輯相適應(yīng)的國家機構(gòu)

上;以及這種重塑如何改變國家與公民的關(guān)系,并塑造主體性和“中產(chǎn)階級”。在此過程中,本文描繪

了非精英中產(chǎn)階級如何在需求、欲望和愿望中定位;以及這些問題如何錯綜復(fù)雜地交織在構(gòu)成新自由

主義印度城市非精英中產(chǎn)階級社會、經(jīng)濟和政治生活的日常不安全感、風(fēng)險和脆弱性中。

第150頁

144

【原文】This article explores political economic developments in India’s post-reform period that began in

1991 through the interactions of the non-elite, ordinary middle-class Indians and state institutions and market

processes. The article introduces “twin movement” as a concept and revises the Polanyian notion of a double

movement of differentiated domains of welfare and neo-liberal state which restricts exploring the tacit

relationships that form between the state and the market; how the state subtly forces people to resort to market

institutions and processes; and forces/encourages capital accumulation to mitigate challenges of the neo-liberal

market. This ethnographic article draws attention to the re-modelling of state institutions that is attuned to neoliberal market logics; and how this re-modelling modifies state–citizen relationships, and shapes subjectivity

and “middleclassness.” In doing so, the article maps how non-elite middleclassness is located in demands,

desires, and aspirations; and how intricately these are weaved into the everyday insecurities, risks, and

vulnerabilities that constitute the social, economic, and political life of the urban non-elite middle class in neoliberal India.

4.大象橫沖直撞的案例:巴基斯坦小鎮(zhèn)中產(chǎn)階級的政治(A Case of Rampaging Elephants:

The Politics of the Middle Classes in Small-Town Pakistan)

Asha Amirali,巴斯大學(xué)發(fā)展研究中心和社會與政策科學(xué)系助理研究員

【摘要】本文借鑒了一年來對巴基斯坦農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場貿(mào)易商的民族志田野調(diào)查。文中分析了他們的業(yè)務(wù)

和更廣泛的網(wǎng)絡(luò)戰(zhàn)略,以展示他們——作為巴基斯坦中產(chǎn)階級的一部分——在積累過程中如何看待國

家并與之互動。商人的經(jīng)濟活動受習(xí)慣、契約和與國家官員的選擇性接觸(國家官員也有選擇地與他

們接觸)的支配,不可避免地與違背民主原則的政治實踐聯(lián)系在一起。在交易者的所作所為中,既沒

有對公共利益的關(guān)注,也沒有對程序性政治的關(guān)注;國家被視為積累的工具,而它本身似乎沒有獨立于

地方統(tǒng)治階級的計劃;集體組織既可以替代國家監(jiān)管職能,又可以避免其執(zhí)法嘗試。這些趨勢進一步阻

礙人們將中產(chǎn)階級視為民主的催化劑,并對尋求改革國家的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略具有重要影響。

【原文】This article draws on a year of ethnographic fieldwork with traders in a Pakistani agricultural

commodity market. It analyses their business and wider networking strategies to show how they – as a segment

of Pakistan’s middle classes – perceive and interact with the state in the process of accumulation. Ordered by

custom, contract, and selective engagement with state functionaries who also engage them selectively, traders’

economic activity is inextricably bound up with political practices that defy democratic principles. Neither a

concern with the public good nor programmatic politics is visible in what traders do; the state is viewed as an

instrument of accumulation while itself appearing to have no project of its own separate from the local

dominant classes; and collective organisation both substitutes for the regulatory state and staves off its attempts

at enforcement. These trends further militate against viewing the middle classes as catalysts of democracy and

have important implications for development strategies seeking to reform the state.

5.國內(nèi)行為體與中國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施影響力的局限性:來自巴基斯坦的證據(jù)(Domestic Actors

and the Limits of Chinese Infrastructure Power: Evidence from Pakistan)

Muhammad Tayyab Safdar,弗吉尼亞大學(xué)政治系助理教授

百萬用戶使用云展網(wǎng)進行翻頁的電子書制作,只要您有文檔,即可一鍵上傳,自動生成鏈接和二維碼(獨立電子書),支持分享到微信和網(wǎng)站!
收藏
轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)
下載
免費制作
其他案例
更多案例
免費制作
x
{{item.desc}}
下載
{{item.title}}
{{toast}}