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the dismissal of the head of state or government for violating constitutional rules are being complied with

more.

6. 政府間政策產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)集（IPOD）的介紹（Introducing the Intergovernmental Policy

Output Dataset (IPOD)）

Magnus Lundgren，瑞典哥德堡大學(xué)政治科學(xué)系副教授

Theresa Squatrito，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院政治科學(xué)系教授

Thomas Sommerer，德國波茨坦大學(xué)政治科學(xué)和公共管理系副教授

Jonas Tallberg，瑞典斯德哥爾摩大學(xué)法律與經(jīng)濟(jì)系副教授

【摘要】越來越多的人認(rèn)識(shí)到，國際組織（IOs）在廣泛的領(lǐng)域制定和采用政策。國際組織已成為各國

尋求共同解決氣候變化或新冠肺炎（COVID-19）等當(dāng)代挑戰(zhàn)的重要場(chǎng)所，也是建立貿(mào)易、發(fā)展、安全

等框架的重要場(chǎng)所。國際組織以這種身份制定特殊政策和常規(guī)政策，其目的多種多樣，從接納新成員

等具有歷史意義的政策，到管理國際組織工作人員等更為瑣碎的任務(wù)。本文介紹了政府間政策產(chǎn)出數(shù)

據(jù)集（IPOD），該數(shù)據(jù)集涵蓋了 1980-2015 年間 13 個(gè)多議題國際組織的近 37000 項(xiàng)獨(dú)立政策行為。

該數(shù)據(jù)集填補(bǔ)了有關(guān)政府間組織比較研究的文獻(xiàn)日益增多的空白，為研究人員提供了有關(guān)政府間組織

政策產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)的精細(xì)視角，以及用于跨時(shí)間、跨政策領(lǐng)域和跨組織比較的數(shù)據(jù)。本文介紹了數(shù)據(jù)集的

構(gòu)建和覆蓋范圍，并指出了數(shù)據(jù)揭示的關(guān)鍵時(shí)間和橫向模式。為了簡(jiǎn)明扼要地說明該數(shù)據(jù)集的效用，

本文在對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)特征與廣泛政策議程動(dòng)態(tài)之間關(guān)系的比較研究中應(yīng)用了點(diǎn)狀均衡模型?？傊g政

策產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)集為研究人員提供了一個(gè)獨(dú)特的資源，可以對(duì)政府間組織的政策產(chǎn)出進(jìn)行精細(xì)分析，并探

討政府間組織的響應(yīng)能力、績(jī)效和合法性等問題。

【原文】There is a growing recognition that international organizations (IOs) formulate and adopt policy in

a wide range of areas. IOs have emerged as key venues for states seeking joint solutions to contemporary

challenges such as climate change or COVID-19, and to establish frameworks to bolster trade, development,

security, and more. In this capacity, IOs produce both extraordinary and routine policy output with a multitude

of purposes, ranging from policies of historic significance like admitting new members to the more mundane

tasks of administering IO staff. This article introduces the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset (IPOD),

which covers close to 37,000 individual policy acts of 13 multi-issue IOs in the 1980–2015 period. The dataset

fills a gap in the growing body of literature on the comparative study of IOs, providing researchers with a finegrained perspective on the structure of IO policy output and data for comparisons across time, policy areas,

and organizations. This article describes the construction and coverage of the dataset and identifies key

temporal and cross-sectional patterns revealed by the data. In a concise illustration of the dataset’s utility, we

apply models of punctuated equilibria in a comparative study of the relationship between institutional features

and broad policy agenda dynamics. Overall, the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset offers a unique

resource for researchers to analyze IO policy output in a granular manner and to explore questions of

responsiveness, performance, and legitimacy of IOs.

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7. 通過貿(mào)易協(xié)定進(jìn)行移民管理：MITA 數(shù)據(jù)集的啟示（Migration governance through

trade agreements: insights from the MITA dataset）

Sandra Lavenex，瑞士日內(nèi)瓦大學(xué)政治科學(xué)和國際關(guān)系系副教授

Philipp Lutz，荷蘭阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)政治科學(xué)和公共管理系副教授

Paula Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik，瑞士日內(nèi)瓦大學(xué)政治科學(xué)和國際關(guān)系系副教授

【摘要】各國都在努力建立有關(guān)移民問題的多邊合作，但它們卻在優(yōu)惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定（PTAs）中納入了越

來越多的移民條款。本文通過介紹《優(yōu)惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定中的移民條款》（MITA）數(shù)據(jù)集來揭示這一現(xiàn)象。

該數(shù)據(jù)集涵蓋了 1960 年至 2020 年間簽署的 797 個(gè)協(xié)定，對(duì)三類移民條款進(jìn)行了精細(xì)編碼：促進(jìn)

服務(wù)提供者和勞動(dòng)移民的國際流動(dòng)、保護(hù)移民權(quán)利以及控制未經(jīng)授權(quán)移民。在多邊主義舉步維艱的背

景下，本文針對(duì)兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵的合作困境：發(fā)達(dá)國家內(nèi)部以及發(fā)達(dá)國家與發(fā)展中國家之間的利益沖突，研

究了優(yōu)惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定的移民政策內(nèi)容。為商業(yè)和勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng)提供便利可能是解決第一種困境的一種可行

方法，這種困境通常被稱為“自由主義悖論”：即經(jīng)濟(jì)上要求開放與政治上要求封閉之間的矛盾。然而，

這種便利在很大程度上僅限于高技術(shù)移民和發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的協(xié)議。發(fā)達(dá)國家與發(fā)展中國家之間的協(xié)

議往往包含移民控制條款，這表明各國利用問題聯(lián)系來解決第二種困境，即利益不對(duì)稱。最后，有關(guān)

移民權(quán)利的條款并沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移而深化，因此顯得尤為突出。本文的研究結(jié)果表明，雖然優(yōu)惠

貿(mào)易協(xié)定已成為越來越常見的移民治理途徑，但貿(mào)易與移民合作之間的問題聯(lián)系使國際體系中根深蒂

固的分歧長(zhǎng)期存在?！秲?yōu)惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定中的移民條款》數(shù)據(jù)集將使研究人員和政策制定者能夠跟蹤貿(mào)易

與移民關(guān)系的演變，并系統(tǒng)地研究?jī)?yōu)惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定中各種移民條款的動(dòng)機(jī)和效果。

【原文】States struggle to establish multilateral cooperation on migration – yet they include more and more

migration provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). This article sheds light on this phenomenon by

introducing the Migration Provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements (MITA) dataset. Covering 797

agreements signed between 1960 and 2020, this dataset offers a fine-grained coding of three types of migration

provisions: those that facilitate the international mobility of service providers and labor migrants, protect

migrant rights, and control unauthorized migration. Against the backdrop of limping multilateralism, we

examine PTAs’ migration policy content with regard to two key cooperation dilemmas: conflicts of interest

within developed countries and between them and developing countries. Facilitating business and labor

mobility might be a possible way around the first dilemma, commonly referred to as the ‘liberal paradox': the

tension between economic demands for openness and political calls for closure. Nevertheless, this facilitation

is largely limited to highly skilled migrants and agreements between developed economies. Provisions for

migration control tend to be included in agreements between developed and developing countries, which

signals that states use issue-linkages to address the second dilemma, i.e. interest asymmetries. Finally,

provisions for migrant rights stand out because they do not deepen over time. Our findings suggest that while

PTAs have become an increasingly common venue for migration governance, the issue-linkage between trade

and migration cooperation perpetuates entrenched divisions in the international system. The MITA dataset

will allow researchers and policymakers to track the evolution of the trade-migration nexus and systematically

investigate the motives for and effects of various migration provisions in PTAs.

【編譯：崔育淶】【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

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97

《 歐洲國際關(guān)系雜志 》 （ European Journal of International

Relations）

European Journal of International Relations， Vol. 30, No. 1, 2024

1. 自反性轉(zhuǎn)向：國際關(guān)系中轉(zhuǎn)向話語的崛起（Reflex to turn: the rise of turn-talk in

International Relations）

Jaakko Heiskanen，倫敦瑪麗女王大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院講師

Paul Beaumont，挪威國際事務(wù)研究所高級(jí)研究員

【摘要】國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域似乎正在經(jīng)歷無窮無盡的“轉(zhuǎn)向”。現(xiàn)有關(guān)于轉(zhuǎn)向的分析為數(shù)不多，且主要關(guān)注

近來最突出的轉(zhuǎn)向。通過挖掘 20 世紀(jì) 80 年代以來最早的國際關(guān)系學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)向歷史并追溯轉(zhuǎn)向話語的演

變，本文揭示了這一現(xiàn)象背后一個(gè)至關(guān)重要但被忽視的內(nèi)在驅(qū)動(dòng)因素：自反性的崛起。轉(zhuǎn)向話語并非

在 21 世紀(jì)出現(xiàn)，而是始于 20 世紀(jì) 80 年代末實(shí)證主義向自反性的轉(zhuǎn)變?？傮w而言，這第一波轉(zhuǎn)向使

國際關(guān)系學(xué)的國家中心本體論非自然化，同時(shí)將自反性奉為圭臬，成為批判性學(xué)者的典范。然而，到

了 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代中期，這些對(duì)實(shí)證主義的元理論批判引發(fā)了相當(dāng)大的反彈。新一代自反主義者被指

責(zé)助長(zhǎng)了神秘的解構(gòu)主義, 他們開始證明后實(shí)證主義經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究的可行性。因此，21 世紀(jì)以來，國際關(guān)

系的轉(zhuǎn)向也呈現(xiàn)出不同的形式：第一波轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)?shí)證主義主流發(fā)起了認(rèn)識(shí)論和方法論的攻擊，第二波轉(zhuǎn)

向則著手將新的本體論對(duì)象置于自反主義學(xué)者的審視之下。這種從反實(shí)證主義到主要是自反主義內(nèi)部

轉(zhuǎn)向的變化得益于作為該學(xué)科主要子領(lǐng)域的批判國際關(guān)系學(xué)的制度化。正是自反性在批判國際關(guān)系學(xué)

者中的特權(quán)地位為無休止的轉(zhuǎn)向提供了可能條件，而在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈的環(huán)境中展示新穎力的壓力又加

劇了這種轉(zhuǎn)向。

【原文】The field of International Relations (IR) is being spun around by a seemingly endless number of

‘turns’. Existing analyses of turning are few in number and predominantly concerned with the most prominent

recent turns. By excavating the forgotten history of IR’s earliest turns from the 1980s and tracing the evolution

of turn-talk over time, this article reveals a crucial yet overlooked internalist driver behind the phenomenon:

the rise of reflexivity. Rather than emerging in the 21st century, turn-talk began at the end of the 1980s as a

《歐洲國際關(guān)系雜志》（European Journal of International

Relations）廣泛地代表了已在歐洲發(fā)展的國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域。

自 1995 年創(chuàng)刊以來，該雜志已成為國際關(guān)系學(xué)界一個(gè)重

要而獨(dú)立的聲音。它以其歐洲起源為基礎(chǔ)，經(jīng)過二十多年

的發(fā)展，已成為國際關(guān)系界最佳成果的縮影，包括前沿的

理論辯論、當(dāng)代和過去的學(xué)術(shù)熱點(diǎn)以及理論豐富的實(shí)證分

析。

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series of turns away from positivism and towards reflexivity. Cumulatively, this first wave of turns would

denaturalise IR’s state-centric ontology while enshrining reflexivity as a canonical good among critical

scholars. By the mid-1990s, however, these metatheoretical critiques of positivism had produced a substantial

backlash. Charged with fostering an esoteric deconstructivism, a new generation of reflexivists set out to

demonstrate the feasibility of post-positivist empirical research. As a result, IR’s turning also took on a

different form from the 2000s: whereas the first wave of turns had mounted an epistemological and

methodological attack against the positivist mainstream, the second wave set about bringing new ontological

objects under the scrutiny of reflexivist scholars. This shift from anti-positivist to mostly intra-reflexivist

turning was facilitated by the institutionalisation of critical IR as a major subfield of the discipline. It is the

privileged position of reflexivity among critical IR scholars that is the condition of possibility for endless

turning, accentuated by mounting pressures to demonstrate novelty in an increasingly competitive environment.

2. 什么造就了一位發(fā)言人？在克里米亞的委托和象征性權(quán)力（What makes a

spokesperson? Delegation and symbolic power in Crimea）

Alvina Hoffmann，倫敦瑪麗女王大學(xué)國際安全講師

【摘要】本文認(rèn)為，聲稱代表某一社會(huì)群體發(fā)言的發(fā)言人無法擺脫委托的結(jié)構(gòu)性困境，即以某人的名

義發(fā)言意味著代替某人發(fā)言。這種通過承諾授權(quán)的委托和授權(quán)沉默的形式對(duì)承認(rèn)發(fā)言人為有效代表的

群體施加了象征性暴力，而沒有認(rèn)識(shí)到其自身可能被剝奪權(quán)利。本文基于皮埃爾·布迪厄

(Pierre · Bourdieu) 關(guān)于語言和象征權(quán)力的社會(huì)學(xué)著作，對(duì)發(fā)言人的授權(quán)軌跡進(jìn)行了理論分析。在此過

程中，本文批判性運(yùn)用了國際關(guān)系理論中通過分離發(fā)言者與聽眾來分析政治言論合法性的理論。相反，

本文運(yùn)用象征性權(quán)力的概念重構(gòu)了發(fā)言人與聽眾的關(guān)系，并引入了被代表的類別。當(dāng)發(fā)言人爭(zhēng)奪象征

性權(quán)力時(shí)，他們?cè)噲D將社會(huì)分類強(qiáng)加給社會(huì)群體和空間。本文在克里米亞人權(quán)政治的背景下闡述了這

些動(dòng)態(tài)，展示了各種發(fā)言人如何在言論的“真實(shí)性”和人權(quán)的“普世性”上進(jìn)行象征性斗爭(zhēng)。最后，本文

提出了新的研究方向以分析緩解發(fā)言人問題的創(chuàng)造性策略。

【原文】This article argues that spokespersons who claim to speak on behalf of a social group cannot escape

the structural problem of delegation whereby speaking in someone’s name entails speaking instead of someone.

This form of delegated and authorised silencing through the promise of empowerment imposes symbolic

violence on a group which recognises the spokesperson as a valid representative, without recognising its own

potential disenfranchisement. I build on Pierre Bourdieu’s sociological writings on language and symbolic

power to theorise the trajectories of authorisation of spokespersons. In doing so, I critically engage with

theories in International Relations which rely on a separation between speaker and audience to analyse the

legitimation of political speech. Instead, I reformulate the speaker/audience relation through the concept of

symbolic power and introduce the category of the spoken-for. When spokespersons struggle over symbolic

power, they seek to impose social classificatory categories on social groups and spaces. I illustrate these

dynamics in the context of human rights politics in Crimea, showing how various spokespersons are engaged

in a symbolic struggle over ‘a(chǎn)uthenticity’ of their speech and the ‘universal’ of human rights. I conclude by

suggesting new lines of inquiry to analyse creative strategies to mitigate the spokesperson problem.

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3. 隱藏的角色：法律專家如何影響國際制度的設(shè)計(jì)（Hidden figures: how legal experts

influence the design of international institutions）

Nicole De Silva，康考迪亞大學(xué)文理學(xué)院政治學(xué)系助理教授兼學(xué)術(shù)主任

Anne Holthoefer，圣安塞姆學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】誰的偏好影響了國際制度的設(shè)計(jì)? 關(guān)于國際政治法律化和國際法律制度創(chuàng)建的學(xué)術(shù)研究大多

采用以國家為中心的視角。然而，現(xiàn)有的研究未能意識(shí)到，國家往往將制度設(shè)計(jì)任務(wù)的權(quán)力委托給獨(dú)

立的法律專家，而這些專家的偏好可能與國家的偏好不同。本文構(gòu)建了一個(gè)委托-代理（PA）框架，

用于理論化設(shè)計(jì)過程中國家（集體委托人）與法律行為者（代理人）之間的關(guān)系，并解釋法律行為者

如何影響國際制度的設(shè)計(jì)。委托-代理關(guān)系的法律維度增加了集體委托人和代理人之間偏好分歧的可

能性，但也創(chuàng)造了條件，使代理人能伺機(jī)推進(jìn)自己的設(shè)計(jì)偏好。本文認(rèn)為，代理人掌握的國家偏好信

息越多，就越能利用其法律專長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略性地選擇設(shè)計(jì)方案并為之辯護(hù)，從而最大限度地提高自身偏好和

國家接受的可能性。本文對(duì)聯(lián)合國和非洲聯(lián)盟關(guān)于國際刑事法的兩個(gè)委托制度設(shè)計(jì)案例的分析支持了

本文的理論期望。大量的檔案和采訪數(shù)據(jù)闡明了代理人關(guān)于國家偏好的可變信息如何影響代理人有效

推進(jìn)其設(shè)計(jì)偏好的能力。本文的理論揭示了負(fù)責(zé)設(shè)計(jì)任務(wù)的獨(dú)立法律專家如何影響制度設(shè)計(jì)過程和結(jié)

果，這對(duì)國際政治法律化具有實(shí)際和規(guī)范意義。

【原文】Whose preferences influence the design of international institutions? Scholarship on the legalization

of international politics and creation of international legal institutions largely adopts a state-centric perspective.

Existing accounts, however, fail to recognize how states often delegate authority over institutional design tasks

to independent legal experts whose preferences may diverge from those of states. We develop a principal–

agent (PA) framework for theorizing relations between states (collective principals) and legal actors (agents)

in the design process, and for explaining how legal actors influence the design of international institutions.

The legal dimensions of the PA relationship increase the likelihood of preference divergence between the

collective principal and the agent, but also create conditions that enable the agent to opportunistically advance

its own design preferences. We argue that the more information on states’ preferences the agent has, the more

effectively it can exploit its legal expertise to strategically select and justify design choices that maximize its

own preferences and the likelihood of states’ acceptance. Our analysis of two cases of delegated institutional

design concerning international criminal law at the United Nations and the African Union supports our

theoretical expectations. Extensive archival and interview data elucidate how agents’ variable information on

states’ preferences affects their ability to effectively advance their design preferences. Our theory reveals how

independent legal experts with delegated authority over design tasks influence institutional design processes

and outcomes, which has practical and normative implications for the legalization of international politics.

4. 國家之外的民族安全化：作為威脅行為體、受威脅對(duì)象和安全資源的散居社群

（Securitizing the nation beyond the state: diasporas as threats, victims, and assets）

Yehonatan Abramson，耶路撒冷希伯來大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系助理教授

【摘要】安全化理論廣泛關(guān)注跨國問題、行動(dòng)者和過程。然而，令人驚訝的是，人們很少關(guān)注散居社

群（定義為海外公民或海外僑民）的安全化問題。本文通過建立一個(gè)分析框架來研究海外僑民的安全

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化問題，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注三種話語形態(tài)：作為威脅行為體的僑民、作為受威脅對(duì)象的僑民和作為安全資源的

僑民。本文基于最近的國家-僑民相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，通過對(duì)以色列精英話語的分析（從 1948 年到 2022 年），

說明了海外僑民的安全化如何作為一種話語機(jī)制，使海外猶太人的域外政策自然化和合法化。因此，

本文通過研究和賦予海外僑民政策制定的主體過程，對(duì)國家-僑民關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)性和理性解釋進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)

充。在大量安全化學(xué)術(shù)研究關(guān)注試圖將“外國人”拒之門外的背景下，本文展示了安全化是如何證明將

某些人引入國外或管理其海外國家身份是合理的。

【原文】Securitization theory has paid extensive attention to transnational issues, actors, and processes.

Surprisingly, however, only little attention has been paid to the securitization of diaspora communities, defined

as overseas citizens or co-nationals abroad. This article fills this gap by developing an analytical framework

to study the securitization of diasporas, focusing on three discursive formations: diasporas as threatening actors,

as objects under threat, or as security resources. Building upon the recent literature on state–diaspora

engagement and drawing on an analysis of Israeli elite discourse (from 1948 to 2022), this article demonstrates

how the securitization of diasporas serves as a discursive mechanism that naturalizes and legitimizes extraterritorial policies towards Jews abroad. Thus, the article complements structural and rational explanations of

state–diaspora engagement by examining the intersubjective process that endows diaspora policymaking with

meaning. Against the backdrop of extensive securitization scholarship that focuses on attempts to keep

“foreigners” out, this article shows how securitization justifies bringing certain people in or governing their

national identity abroad.

5. 敘利亞武裝組織集資的法律與政治：國家如何（未能）打擊恐怖主義（The law and

politics of funding armed groups in Syria: how states (fail to) counter-terrorism）

Tasniem Anwar，阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)犯罪學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】本文探討了荷蘭政府在 2015 年至 2018 年間支持?jǐn)⒗麃喚硟?nèi)所謂溫和團(tuán)體而實(shí)施的反恐計(jì)劃

所引發(fā)的政治和法律爭(zhēng)議。爭(zhēng)議的焦點(diǎn)在于荷蘭政府如何定義和支持?jǐn)⒗麃喚硟?nèi)的溫和派武裝組織，

并將其與恐怖組織相區(qū)分。本文旨在探討一問題，并根據(jù)歐洲反恐融資法規(guī)中關(guān)于恐怖主義資金和恐

怖主義組織的現(xiàn)有定義，解讀荷蘭外交部如何構(gòu)建和證明其在該計(jì)劃中部署的對(duì)溫和團(tuán)體的物質(zhì)支持

的定義。本文與國際關(guān)系和國際法中有關(guān)物質(zhì)性的爭(zhēng)論相聯(lián)系，探討了恐怖主義定義產(chǎn)生過程中的物

質(zhì)-符號(hào)實(shí)踐。實(shí)證分析基于對(duì)法律專業(yè)人士的訪談、政策文件和法庭記錄，詳細(xì)概述了荷蘭政府如何

構(gòu)建恐怖主義和恐怖主義融資的多重甚至相互矛盾的定義。通過這種跨學(xué)科的物質(zhì)性方法和實(shí)證分析,

本文提出，關(guān)于恐怖主義和恐怖主義融資定義的爭(zhēng)議反映了關(guān)于西方國家在反恐戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的知識(shí)和責(zé)任

的歐洲中心主義假設(shè)。盡管實(shí)證分析立足于荷蘭的背景，但本文的分析對(duì)于 2015 年至 2018 年間參與

類似行動(dòng)的多個(gè)歐洲國家以及未來針對(duì)恐怖組織的反恐努力都有借鑒意義。

【原文】This article examines the political and legal controversies around a counterterrorism programme

conducted by the Dutch government to support the so-called moderate groups in Syria between 2015 and 2018.

The controversies centred around the question how the Dutch government was able to define and support

armed moderate groups in Syria and distinguish them from terrorist organizations. The objective of the article

is to take up this question and unpack how the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs constructed and justified

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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their definition of material support for moderate groups deployed in this programme, against existing

definitions of terrorism funding and terrorist groups embedded in European counterterrorism financing

regulations. Connecting to the debates around materiality in both International Relations and International

Law, this article follows the material-semiotic practices through which definitions of terrorism come into being.

The empirical analysis draws on interviews with legal professionals, policy documents and court transcripts,

and provides a detailed overview of how multiple and even conflicting definitions of terrorism and terrorism

financing are constructed by the Dutch state. Taking this interdisciplinary approach to materiality and based

on the empirical analysis, I propose that this controversy on defining terrorism and terrorism financing reflects

a Eurocentric assumption about the knowledge and responsibilities of the Western state in the War on Terror.

While the empirics are grounded in the Dutch context, my analysis is relevant for multiple European countries

who engaged in similar operations between 2015 and 2018, as well as for future counterterrorism efforts

targeting terrorist groups.

6. 反和平進(jìn)程的國際動(dòng)態(tài)（The international dynamics of counter-peace）

Oliver P. Richmond，曼徹斯特大學(xué)政治系教授

Sandra Pogodda，曼徹斯特大學(xué)政治系和平與沖突研究講師

G?zim Visoka，都柏林城市大學(xué)法律與政府學(xué)院和平與沖突研究副教授

【摘要】和平進(jìn)程與國際秩序是相互依存的：國際秩序?yàn)楹推竭M(jìn)程提供規(guī)范框架，而建立和平的工具

及其基本意識(shí)形態(tài)維護(hù)著國際秩序。它們?cè)谝欢ǔ潭壬贤ㄟ^滿足地方要求以及維持地緣政治平衡來表

明其可行性和合法性。在新興的多極秩序中，由自由國際秩序主導(dǎo)的國際和平架構(gòu)(IPA)受到了反和平

進(jìn)程的挑戰(zhàn)。這些進(jìn)程對(duì)國家的性質(zhì)、國家與社會(huì)的關(guān)系國際秩序本身提出了越來越多的質(zhì)疑。本文

研究了地區(qū)行為者和大國在參與和平與秩序相關(guān)活動(dòng)或干預(yù)時(shí)的策略和戰(zhàn)術(shù)。鑒于國際和平架構(gòu)和自

由國際秩序的薄弱和不一致，這種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致對(duì)國際秩序本身的挑戰(zhàn)，往往以社會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng)和民間社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)

的訴求為代價(jià)。

【原文】Peace processes and international order are interdependent: while the latter provides the normative

framework for the former, peacemaking tools and their underlying ideology also maintain international order.

They indicate its viability and legitimacy partly by meeting local claims as well as through the maintenance

of geopolitical balances. In the emerging multipolar order, the international peace architecture (IPA),

dominated by the liberal international order (LIO), is contested through counter-peace processes. These

processes contest the nature of the state, state-society relations and increasingly international order itself. This

paper investigates the tactics and strategies of regional actors and great powers, where they engage in peace

and order related activities or interventions. Given the weakness and inconsistency of the IPA and the LIO,

such contestation leads to challenges to international order itself, often at the expense of the claims of social

movements and civil society networks.

7. 信任如何喪失：2021 年聯(lián)合國糧食系統(tǒng)峰會(huì)與聯(lián)合國糧食治理的合法性喪失（How

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trust is lost: the Food Systems Summit 2021 and the delegitimation of UN food governance）

Felix Anderl，菲利普大學(xué)馬爾堡校區(qū)沖突研究教授

Michael Hi?en，澤佩林大學(xué)政治、行政與國際關(guān)系系研究員

【摘要】社會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)國際組織的參與方式持懷疑態(tài)度。由于擔(dān)心被收編而喪失真正的政策影響力，他

們?cè)絹碓絻A向于推出合作，從外部對(duì)國際組織提出質(zhì)疑。然而，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織是這一趨勢(shì)的例外。

它的開放被視為長(zhǎng)期對(duì)話，促進(jìn)了關(guān)于糧食生產(chǎn)性質(zhì)的討論，并且由于它建立了可信的體制機(jī)制，活

動(dòng)家們相信其對(duì)農(nóng)民和農(nóng)民運(yùn)動(dòng)有影響力。因此，糧食主權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)在 2010 年代始終以明顯制度化的方

式在聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織的框架下展開。但是在 2019 年，當(dāng)聯(lián)合國宣布舉行糧食系統(tǒng)峰會(huì)時(shí)，情況發(fā)生

了巨大變化。糧食主權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)、許多非政府組織甚至科學(xué)家都決定抵制這次峰會(huì)，轉(zhuǎn)而組織另一場(chǎng)人民

峰會(huì)，并退出在聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)任的機(jī)構(gòu)角色。如何解釋這一情況呢？本文追溯了自聯(lián)合國糧

食系統(tǒng)峰會(huì)宣布以來到其實(shí)施的過程，強(qiáng)調(diào)了在這一過程中，損害活動(dòng)家誠意的幾項(xiàng)決定是如何破壞

機(jī)構(gòu)信任的。正如本文詳細(xì)說明的那樣，繞過既有的機(jī)制體制，以及運(yùn)動(dòng)方的受背叛感，是失去體制

信任的決定性因素。重要的是，聯(lián)合國糧食系統(tǒng)峰會(huì)背景下，實(shí)質(zhì)性和制度性變化交織在一起，不僅

損害了運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)峰會(huì)組織者誠信和能力的信任，還激起了運(yùn)動(dòng)促使聯(lián)合國糧食治理非法化的努力。

【原文】Social movements see participation formats of international organizations (IOs) with suspicion. They

increasingly retreat from cooperation to contest IOs from the outside, because they fear co-optation without

real policy impact. However, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) was an exception to this trend

because its opening up was seen as long-term dialogue facilitating discussions about the nature of food

production, and because it created credible institutional mechanisms that were trusted by activists to give

influence to farmers and peasant movements. Therefore, the food sovereignty movement participated within

the FAO framework in a remarkably institutionalized way throughout the 2010s. But in 2019, when the United

Nations (UN) announced to hold a food systems summit (United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS)),

this changed dramatically. The food sovereignty movement, many non-governmental organizations (NGOs),

and eventually scientists, decided to boycott the summit, instead organizing an alternative Peoples’ Summit,

and withdrawing from long-held institutional roles in the FAO. How can this be explained? This article traces

the process from the announcement of the UNFSS to its implementation, stressing how institutional trust was

damaged by several decisions in the process that undermined the good faith of activists. As we show in detail,

the circumvention of established institutional mechanisms, and the feeling of betrayal on the side of the

movement, was decisive for losing institutional trust. Importantly, a mixture of substantive and institutional

changes in the context of UNFSS not only undermined the movement’s trust into the integrity and ability of

the summit organizers, but thereby also provoked movement efforts to delegitimize UN food governance at

large.

8. 解讀公眾對(duì)中國的外國直接投資的反對(duì)：工會(huì)、耐心資本和成員對(duì)外國直接投資流入

的偏好（Disentangling public opposition to Chinese FDI: trade unions, patient capital, and

members’ preferences over FDI inflows）

Damian Raess，伯爾尼大學(xué)全球政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)助理教授

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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【摘要】本文研究了工會(huì)成員身份是否會(huì)因投資者原籍國的不同而影響個(gè)人的外國直接投資 (FDI)

偏好。作者認(rèn)為，外國直接投資的來源國將影響工會(huì)成員對(duì)外國直接投資的評(píng)估，因?yàn)樗峁┝司€索，

表明在不同外國投資者的情況下（工會(huì)組織的）工人的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景會(huì)是什么樣子。作者認(rèn)為，外國投資

者的顯著特征是他們來自的國家是耐心資本還是無耐心資本的形式。與非會(huì)員相比，會(huì)員更支持來自

體現(xiàn)耐心資本的國家的外國直接投資。具體而言，作者預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)員對(duì)來自耐心資本和來自無耐心資本國

家的 FDI 之間的支持差距（正差距）會(huì)隨著工會(huì)成員資格的增加而增加。相反，來自無耐心資本國家

和來自耐心資本國家的外國直接投資之間的支持差距（正差距）會(huì)隨著成員資格的增加而減少。來自

瑞士原始調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù)證實(shí)了作者的論點(diǎn)。受訪者被要求評(píng)估來自中國和歐洲（體現(xiàn)耐心資本的實(shí)

體）以及來自美國（體現(xiàn)無耐心資本的國家）的外國直接投資。結(jié)果顯示，歐洲外國直接投資與美國

外國直接投資之間的熱情差距隨著工會(huì)成員數(shù)的增加而增加，而美國外國直接投資與中國外國直接投

資之間的熱情差距隨著成員數(shù)的增加而減少。對(duì)歐洲大陸工會(huì)的報(bào)告、文件和證詞進(jìn)行的補(bǔ)充定性分

析顯示，工會(huì)的觀點(diǎn)與其成員的觀點(diǎn)一致，這表明工會(huì)塑造了其成員的外國直接投資偏好。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)

對(duì)于回應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的政治具有重要意義。

【原文】I examine whether union membership affects individual foreign direct investment (FDI) preferences

in ways that vary across investors’ country of origin. I argue that the country of FDI origin will bear upon how

union members assess FDI, because it provides cues about what the economic prospects of (unionized) workers

will look like under different foreign investors. I argue that the salient attribute of foreign investors is whether

they originate from a country that is an important form of patient or impatient capital. Compared with nonmembers, members will be more supportive of FDI from countries embodying patient than impatient capital.

Specifically, I expect the (positive) gap in support between FDI from patient and FDI from impatient capital

countries to increase with union membership. Conversely, I expect the (positive) gap in support between FDI

from impatient versus patient capital countries to decrease with membership. Evidence from original Swiss

survey data corroborates my argument. Respondents were asked to evaluate FDI from China and Europe

(entities embodying patient capital) and from the United States (a country embodying impatient capital). The

results show that the gap in enthusiasm for European FDI versus American FDI increases with union

membership, while the gap in enthusiasm for American FDI versus Chinese FDI decreases with membership.

Complementary qualitative analysis of reports, documents, and testimonies by trade unions in continental

Europe show that their views are in sync with those of their members, suggesting that unions shape their

members’ FDI preferences. The findings have important implications for the politics of backlash against

economic globalization.

9. 愛如何塑造秩序：與國際關(guān)系學(xué)科的交流（How love orders: an engagement with

disciplinary International Relations）

Liane Hartnett，墨爾本大學(xué)國際關(guān)系講師

【摘要】愛在秩序規(guī)范性的產(chǎn)生和維持中發(fā)揮著重要作用。在歷史上，愛被用來構(gòu)建群體、合法化強(qiáng)

迫和（消）授權(quán)。換句話說，愛是情感的粘合劑，將群體緊密聯(lián)系在一起，將情感定格為行動(dòng)的動(dòng)力

和約束，是權(quán)力運(yùn)作不可或缺的一部分。愛可以被調(diào)用和操控以實(shí)現(xiàn)各種政治目的。通過復(fù)雜化關(guān)于

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愛作為積極情感的描述, 本文揭示了愛在國際關(guān)系學(xué)科中被忽視的歷史，它是一種意識(shí)形態(tài)的面具，

掩蓋了其在帝國、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和統(tǒng)治等暴力世界建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中的影響。為了說明這一點(diǎn)，本文確定了三種典型

的理想邏輯——黑格爾式、奧古斯丁式和尼采式——這三種邏輯展示了愛的秩序作用，并分析了它們

如何在國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的三位領(lǐng)軍人物——阿爾弗雷德·齊默恩、雷恩霍爾德·尼布爾和漢斯·摩根索的作

品中得到體現(xiàn)。

【原文】Love plays an important role in the normative production and sustenance of order. Historically

implicated in imaginaries of order, it has been evoked to constitute community, legitimate coercion and

(dis)empower. Put differently, love provides the affective glue that binds groups, frames feelings to enable and

constrain action and is integral to the workings of power. Love can be evoked and governed for various

political ends. Complicating accounts of love as a positive emotion, this article uncovers love’s neglected

history in disciplinary International Relations (IR) as an ideological mask that conceals its implication in

violent worldmaking projects of empire, war and domination. To illustrate this, it identifies three ideal-typical

– or Hegelian, Augustinian and Nietzschean – logics that exemplify love’s ordering work and examines how

they find expression in the work of three leading figures of disciplinary IR, namely Alfred Zimmern (1859–

1957), Reinhold Niebuhr (1892–1971) and Hans Morgenthau (1904–1980).

10. 國家之外的民族安全化：作為威脅行為體、受威脅對(duì)象和安全資源的散居社群（The

politics of human rights trade sanctions: evidence from the African Growth and

Opportunity Act）

Travis Curtice，德雷克塞爾大學(xué)政治學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】學(xué)者們認(rèn)為，將人權(quán)條件納入貿(mào)易協(xié)定可以改善人權(quán)狀況。然而作者認(rèn)為，人權(quán)利益可能與

貿(mào)易、投資和安全利益發(fā)生沖突。作者以《非洲增長(zhǎng)和機(jī)會(huì)法案》為背景對(duì)這些觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了研究。該

法案是美國于 2000 年為多達(dá) 49 個(gè)可能符合條件的的撒哈拉以南非洲國家制定的單邊貿(mào)易優(yōu)惠計(jì)劃，

其中包含強(qiáng)有力的人權(quán)條件。美國終止該法案受益國地位的決定很大程度上取決于美國的貿(mào)易、投資

和安全利益決定。該國的人權(quán)記錄，包括國家支持的殺戮和其他侵犯人身安全權(quán)利的行為，所產(chǎn)生的

影響較不一致且較弱。

【原文】Scholars contend that embedding human rights conditionality in trade agreements can improve human

rights. We argue that human rights interests may collide with trade, investment, and security interests. We

examine these claims in the context of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a unilateral trade

preference program with robust human rights conditions, created in 2000 by the United States for up to 49

potentially eligible sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states. US decisions to terminate AGOA beneficiary status are

determined strongly by US trade, investment, and security interests. The country’s human rights record,

including state-sponsored killings and other violations of physical integrity rights, has a less consistent and

weaker effect.

【編譯：王詩涵】【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

105

《國際事務(wù)》（International Affairs）

International Affairs，Vol. 100, No. 2, 2024

1. 不止于普京：俄羅斯外交政策中管理的多元主義（More than Putin: managed

pluralism in Russia's foreign policy）

Damian Strycharz，愛丁堡大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系博士研究員

【摘要】俄羅斯對(duì)烏克蘭的全面侵犯讓大多數(shù)專家都感到驚訝，但在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之前，在俄羅斯的公開爭(zhēng)論

中有許多聲音呼吁對(duì)烏克蘭和西方國家采取比政府奉行的更強(qiáng)硬的政策。本文對(duì)優(yōu)先考慮外部因素或

是僅關(guān)注于普京的解釋提出了挑戰(zhàn)，并表明審查反對(duì)立場(chǎng)、國家媒體和政府的言論對(duì)正確理解俄羅斯

外交政策的必要性。本文主張管理的多元主義（由 Harley Balzer 在 2003 年定義）的理念，這尚未用

于分析莫斯科的國際行為，這種理念是一個(gè)有用的工具，可以彌補(bǔ)文獻(xiàn)中的空缺和揭示俄羅斯外交政

策制定背后的重要機(jī)制。因此，本文揭示了一種允許部分聲音而消除其他聲音的機(jī)制，這將俄羅斯的

外交政策引導(dǎo)至特定方向，在這種機(jī)制下，做出入侵烏克蘭的選擇就成為了可能。最后，本文闡明了

觀察參與公開辯論的行為者及其主張可能是了解俄羅斯未來外交政策的線索。更廣泛地說，本文指出

了管理的多元主義對(duì)我們理解其他國家外交政策的政策影響和理論上的好處。

【原文】The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine took most experts by surprise, but before the war, there

were numerous voices in the Russian public debate calling for much tougher policies towards Ukraine and the

West than the ones pursued by the government. This article challenges explanations that prioritize external

factors or focus solely on President Putin and shows that examining opposition, state media and government

discourses is necessary to understand Russia's foreign policy properly. The article contends that the concept

of managed pluralism (defined by Harley Balzer in 2003), which has not yet been used in the analysis of

Moscow's international behaviour, is a useful tool that can address the gap in the literature and shed light on

important mechanisms behind Russia's foreign policy-making. Consequently, the article reveals mechanisms

that, by allowing certain voices while eliminating others, steer Russia's foreign policy in a specific direction,

which in this case made the invasion of Ukraine possible. Finally, it indicates that observing actors admitted

to the public debate and their propositions may be a clue to the direction of Russia's future foreign policy.

《國際事務(wù)》（International Affairs）是國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的一

流學(xué)術(shù)期刊，也是多學(xué)科綜合性學(xué)術(shù)期刊。本刊于 1992 年

由倫敦皇家國際事務(wù)研究所查塔姆學(xué)院（Chatham House）

創(chuàng)立，內(nèi)容來源廣泛，力圖囊括業(yè)內(nèi)專家、學(xué)術(shù)新秀對(duì)重

點(diǎn)、熱點(diǎn)問題的最新思考。2022 年期刊影響因子為 4.5，

在 96 個(gè)國際關(guān)系類刊物中位列第 7 名。

106

More broadly, this article points to policy implications and theoretical benefits of managed pluralism for our

understanding of other states' foreign policies.

2. 從樂觀到懷疑自由主義：在危機(jī)中重塑歐盟外交政策（From optimist to sceptical

liberalism: reforging European Union foreign policy amid crises）

Christine Nissen，丹麥國際問題研究所研究員

Jakob Dreyer，哥本哈根大學(xué)博士研究員

【摘要】俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭為歐盟帶來了譴責(zé)和辯護(hù)。歐盟的政策被譴責(zé)為是安于現(xiàn)狀的、天真的和

貪婪的。然而，當(dāng)歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人做出了支持烏克蘭的協(xié)調(diào)反應(yīng)時(shí)，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)也證明了歐盟作為一個(gè)自由

主義項(xiàng)目的合理性。這場(chǎng)危機(jī)導(dǎo)致對(duì)歐盟的支持激增、空前的跨政策領(lǐng)域的合作以及與歐盟東部鄰國

的新入盟談判。為了了解這種轉(zhuǎn)變，本文認(rèn)為這場(chǎng)危機(jī)促使歐盟成為了一個(gè)持懷疑態(tài)度的自由主義參

與者。懷疑自由主義具有對(duì)國際秩序報(bào)以消極態(tài)度的特點(diǎn)，對(duì)歐洲在其中的角色有自我批評(píng)的理解，

并愿意進(jìn)行干預(yù)，包括使用軍事手段，以解決政治困境。這種轉(zhuǎn)變改變了歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之前持樂觀自由

主義通過調(diào)解和相互依存追尋自由和繁榮的方式。文章區(qū)分了理想和行動(dòng)，認(rèn)為自由主義理想保持不

變，但持懷疑態(tài)度的觀點(diǎn)意味著追求這些理想的不同行動(dòng)。本文的論點(diǎn)挑戰(zhàn)了長(zhǎng)期以來對(duì)“正常 vs 規(guī)

范權(quán)力歐洲”的學(xué)術(shù)爭(zhēng)論，這些爭(zhēng)辯建立在對(duì)歐盟外交政策過于二元化的評(píng)估基礎(chǔ)之上，未能抓住當(dāng)

代動(dòng)態(tài)及其引起的困境。

【原文】Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought both condemnation and to the European Union. EU policies

were condemned for being complacent, naive and greedy. However, when European leaders conducted a

coordinated response backing Ukraine, the war also vindicated the EU as a liberal project. The crisis has led

to a surge in support for the EU, unprecedented cooperation across policy areas and new accession negotiations

with the EU's eastern neighbours. To understand this shift, the article argues that crisis has catalysed the EU

becoming a sceptical liberal actor. Sceptical liberalism is characterized by a bleak view on the trajectory of

the international order, a self-critical understanding of Europe's role in it, and a willingness to intervene,

including with military means, to tackle political predicaments. The transition changes EU leaders' previous

optimistic liberal approach of pursuing peace and prosperity though mediation and interdependence.

Distinguishing between ideals and actions, the article argues that liberal ideals remain intact, but a sceptical

outlook implies different actions to pursue those ideals. The article's argument challenges longstanding

scholarly debates on ‘normal versus normative power Europe’, which build on an excessively bifurcated

assessment of EU foreign policy that fails to capture contemporary dynamics and the dilemmas they cause.

3. 中國、國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和主權(quán)債務(wù)重組的僵局：超越地緣政治（China, international

competition and the stalemate in sovereign debt restructuring: beyond geopolitics）

Shahar Hameiri，昆士蘭大學(xué)政治與國際學(xué)院教授

Lee Jones，瑪麗女王大學(xué)政治和國際關(guān)系系教授

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

107

4. “手足兄弟”：法國，盎格魯文化圈和澳英美聯(lián)盟（BrOthers in Arms’: France, the

Anglosphere and AUKUS）

Jack Holland，利茲大學(xué)政治學(xué)院副教授

Eglantine Staunton，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系高級(jí)講師

【摘要】法國重要的外交政策對(duì)子，例如法國和英國以及法國和美國之間的雙邊關(guān)系，一直得到實(shí)證、

歷史和政策層面的分析。然而，法國和大盎格魯?shù)貐^(qū)的關(guān)系很少被考慮或是概念化。本文對(duì)重要時(shí)期

法國和盎格魯?shù)貐^(qū)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了理論分析。2021 年 AUKUS 被宣布：這是一個(gè)建立在澳大利亞、英國

和美國三國之間的安全伙伴關(guān)系；但引人注目的是，AUKUS 將法國排除在外，盡管法國也傾向于使

用軍事力量捍衛(wèi)自由國際秩序。為了分析這個(gè)重要的當(dāng)代案例，本文對(duì) 540 篇政治和媒體文本進(jìn)行計(jì)

算機(jī)輔助的比較性話語分析，并對(duì) 37 次精英訪談進(jìn)行了主題分析。首先，本研究通過“手足兄弟”的

概念，對(duì)結(jié)盟政治進(jìn)行了新穎的理論化，這為建構(gòu)主義和本體安全理論作出了貢獻(xiàn)，因此通過雙重身

份標(biāo)記將盟友敵對(duì)地結(jié)合在一起。其次，為了對(duì)外交政策批判性研究和國家身份研究作出貢獻(xiàn)，本文

將法國-盎格魯?shù)年P(guān)系定位在聯(lián)盟認(rèn)同譜的最厚端，通過互補(bǔ)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和共同構(gòu)成的例外主義將彼此聯(lián)

系在一起。最后，為了對(duì)外交政策和聯(lián)盟政策研究作出貢獻(xiàn)，文本的分析將 AUKUS 置于法國-盎格魯

關(guān)系的長(zhǎng)期不穩(wěn)定時(shí)期。

【原文】Important French foreign policy dyads, such as relations between France and the United Kingdom

and France and the United States, have consistently been subject to empirical, historical and policy analysis.

However, France's relationship with the broader Anglosphere is rarely considered or conceptualized. This

article theorizes France's relationship with the Anglosphere at a pivotal historical juncture. The 2021

announcement of AUKUS, a security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US, spectacularly

excluded France despite a shared proclivity to use military force in defence of liberal international order. To

analyse this vital contemporary case, we undertake a comparative, computer-aided discourse analysis of 540

political and media texts, triangulated with thematic analysis of 37 elite interviews. First, contributing to

constructivist and ontological security theory, we develop a novel theorization of alliance politics, generally,

through the concept of ‘brOthers in arms’, whereby a double identity inscription binds allies antagonistically

together. Second, contributing to critical studies of foreign policy and research on national identity, we locate

France–Anglosphere relations, specifically, towards the thick end of an alliance identity spectrum, held

together in mutual alterity by complementary, competing and co-constitutive exceptionalisms. Third,

contributing to studies of foreign policy and alliance politics, our analysis situates AUKUS within the fractious

longue durée of France–Anglosphere relations.

5. 對(duì)人類世的感受：全球南方的情感關(guān)系和生態(tài)激進(jìn)主義（Feeling for the Anthropocene:

affective relations and ecological activism in the global South）

Adarsh Badri，昆士蘭大學(xué)國際研究系博士研究生

【摘要】情緒如何影響全球南方的生態(tài)激進(jìn)主義？盡管對(duì)國際關(guān)系中生態(tài)激進(jìn)主義研究的興趣持續(xù)增

長(zhǎng)，但是由于主要關(guān)注西方社會(huì)，從全球南方獲得見解的研究并不多。與近期“關(guān)系”背景相反，國際

關(guān)系轉(zhuǎn)向“情感”和“人類世”研究，本文探討了情感能夠如何對(duì)全球南方生態(tài)激進(jìn)主義產(chǎn)生影響。本文

108

試圖超越占主導(dǎo)地位的理性主義技術(shù)官僚對(duì)人類世條件的修正，并將“情感關(guān)系”概念化為定位和維持

人類與自然之間關(guān)系的框架。本文認(rèn)為在國際關(guān)系中的“國際性”是社會(huì)的理性層面；同時(shí)，情緒行為

能夠作為這些社會(huì)關(guān)系的供應(yīng)者。本文從實(shí)證的角度考察了在印度 Chipko（抱樹）運(yùn)動(dòng)中生態(tài)激進(jìn)主

義的歷史見解。本文認(rèn)為，情感作為非暴力實(shí)踐（擁抱樹木、無聲示威、抗議口號(hào)、街頭表演、歌曲

和表演）成為印度奇 Chipko 運(yùn)動(dòng)中生態(tài)激進(jìn)主義的抵抗場(chǎng)所。最后，本文解釋了情感關(guān)系如何維系

人類、自然和國家。

【原文】How do emotions shape ecological activism in the global South? Despite growing interest in

researching ecological activism in International Relations (IR), there hasn't been much work that draws

insights from the global South due to the predominant focus on western societies. Against the backdrop of the

recent ‘relational’, ‘emotional’ and ‘Anthropocene’ turns in IR scholarship, this article examines how emotions

can contribute to ecological activism in the global South. The article seeks to move beyond the dominant

rationalist technocratic fixes to the Anthropocene condition and conceptualize the ‘a(chǎn)ffective relations’ as a

frame for situating and sustaining relations between humans and nature. It argues that the ‘international’ in IR

is a relational sphere of society—and emotions act as the purveyor of those social relations. Empirically, this

article examines historical insights from ecological activism in the Chipko (tree-hugging) movement in India.

The article argues that feelings as the non-violent practice (in their hugging of trees, silent demonstrations,

protest slogans, street plays, songs and performances) become sites of resistance in ecological activism in

India's Chipko movement. Finally, the article explains how affective relations sustain humans, nature and the

state.

6. 透過民主鏡頭誤解緬甸（Misunderstanding Myanmar through the lens of democracy）

David Brenner，薩塞克斯大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系高級(jí)講師

【摘要】本文以 2021 年緬甸軍事政變及其暴力后果作為起點(diǎn)，以分析西方觀察家通常將緬甸政治描

述為民主斗爭(zhēng)的主流視角。本文展現(xiàn)了僅關(guān)注于政治系統(tǒng)的問題不足以解釋政治進(jìn)程和沖突動(dòng)態(tài)，以

及它如何冒著淡化國家過去和存在的民族主義、民族沖突和種族滅絕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一種后殖民時(shí)代的解讀

建議對(duì)在緬甸的沖突和專制主義找尋解決方案需要對(duì)現(xiàn)代民族國家本身的角色提出質(zhì)疑。本分析有助

于最近的研究，該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)“沖突與和平研究”從一些沖突中發(fā)展出理論，反映了西方利益如何旨在為

全球政策和實(shí)踐提供信息的領(lǐng)域中塑造學(xué)術(shù)選擇。本文通過探討這種選擇性的偏見并不是簡(jiǎn)單的西方

普遍利益（或缺乏利益）的結(jié)果，這為知識(shí)生產(chǎn)作出了貢獻(xiàn)。它還與我們對(duì)世界各國和地區(qū)的興趣和

理解的框架有關(guān)。研究全球南方“被遺忘的沖突”不僅需要轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)I(yè)的文獻(xiàn)，同時(shí)也需要超越以西方為

中心的參考框架。

【原文】This article takes the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and its violent aftermath as a starting point for

analysing the dominant lens through which western observers commonly narrate the country's politics as a

struggle for democracy. It shows how focusing on questions of the political system is insufficient for

explaining political processes and conflict dynamics, and how it risks sanitizing the country's past and presence

of nationalism, ethnic conflict and genocide. A postcolonial reading suggests that finding solutions to conflict

and authoritarianism in Myanmar demands questioning the role of the modern nation-state itself. This analysis

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

109

contributes to recent research which has found that Conflict and Peace Studies develops theories from some

conflicts over others, reflecting how western interests shape academic choices in a field that aims to inform

policy and practice worldwide. This article contributes to this debate on knowledge production by arguing that

this selectivity bias is not simply a function of general western interest (or lack thereof). It is also linked to the

frames that govern our interest in and understanding of countries and regions worldwide. Studying ‘forgotten

conflicts’ in the global South not only necessitates a turn to specialist literature, but also demands moving

beyond Eurocentric frames of reference.

7. 臨時(shí)聯(lián)盟如何使國際機(jī)制度非制度化（How ad hoc coalitions deinstitutionalize

international institutions）

Malte Brosig，金山大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系副教授

John Karlsrud，挪威國際事務(wù)研究所研究員

【摘要】隨著臨時(shí)特設(shè)聯(lián)盟（AHCs）激增，特別是在非洲大陸，兩個(gè)問題變得清晰起來。首先，它們

會(huì)對(duì)現(xiàn)存的體制安全格局帶來什么后果？其次，如何從概念上捕捉和探索 AHCs 與國際組織一起運(yùn)作

而不是在國際組織內(nèi)部運(yùn)作的趨勢(shì)？為了回答這些問題，本文仔細(xì)研究了打擊博科圣地的多國聯(lián)合特

遣部隊(duì)（MNJTF)）以及其與非洲聯(lián)盟不斷變化的關(guān)系。通過案例研究和對(duì)政策以及學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)的回顧，

本文提出了去制度化的概念及其特征。本文確定了去制度化的三個(gè)特征：AHCs 可以避開政策制定的

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)程序，削弱已建立的機(jī)構(gòu)腳本以及轉(zhuǎn)移資源分配。文章通過審查歐洲聯(lián)盟和聯(lián)合國的政策和做法，

詳細(xì)介紹了 AHCs 如何如何為改變國際和平與安全行動(dòng)融資的做法做出貢獻(xiàn)?？傊?，本文揭示了去制

度化的過程以及確定了這一過程的三種形式的基本原理：缺乏問題解決能力、有限的適應(yīng)性和路徑依

賴。

【原文】As ad hoc coalitions (AHCs) proliferate, particularly on the African continent, two questions

crystallize. First, what consequences do they bring about for the existing institutional security landscape? And

second, how can the trend of AHCs operating alongside instead of inside international organizations be

captured and explored conceptually? To answer these questions, we closely examine the Multinational Joint

Task Force (MNJTF) fighting Boko Haram and its changing relationship to the African Union. Through the

case-study and a review of policy and academic literatures, the article launches the concept of

deinstitutionalization and how it can be characterized. We identify three features of deinstitutionalization:

AHCs can bypass standard procedures for decision-making processes, whittle down established institutional

scripts and shift resource allocations. We detail how the AHCs contribute to changing practices of financing

international peace and security operations, with an examination of European Union and United Nations

policies and practices. In sum, the article unwraps processes of deinstitutionalization and identifies three forms

of rationales for this process: lack of problem-solving capacity, limited adaptability and path dependency.

8. 米歇爾·福柯視角下的實(shí)用主義反思：雙邊關(guān)系的治理（Rethinking pragmatism

through the lens of Michel Foucault: governance of bilateral relations）

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Suban Kumar Chowdhury，拉杰沙希大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系副教授

【摘要】實(shí)用主義，回應(yīng)了“去中心化的國際關(guān)系”，培養(yǎng)了解決范式間爭(zhēng)端的分析折衷主義。約翰·杜

威的實(shí)用主義與建構(gòu)主義無縫結(jié)合，提供了細(xì)致入微的見解。然而，在雙邊關(guān)系中，實(shí)用主義往往被

限制在現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的框架中，缺乏理解治理的分析嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)性。在本文，作者通過強(qiáng)調(diào)關(guān)系性權(quán)利動(dòng)態(tài)和非

中立知識(shí)來挑戰(zhàn)這一點(diǎn)，同時(shí)介紹了根植于“拼湊”的“平衡實(shí)用主義”以實(shí)現(xiàn)細(xì)致入微的治理。利用福

柯的見解，作者重新定義了權(quán)力-知識(shí)相互作用中的治理實(shí)用主義，以印度-孟加拉國土地邊界協(xié)議

(LBA)為例作為闡釋。LBA 成功挑戰(zhàn)了現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的權(quán)利范式，承認(rèn)了?？率絼?dòng)態(tài)對(duì)加強(qiáng)務(wù)實(shí)平衡的的

關(guān)鍵性作用。這通過敏銳的治理豐富了建構(gòu)主義范式。在 LBA 中，通過福柯視角解讀實(shí)用主義強(qiáng)調(diào)

了雙邊治理的影響，強(qiáng)調(diào)了在福柯框架中的分析折衷主義和實(shí)用性以應(yīng)對(duì)地緣政治挑戰(zhàn)。它主張?jiān)趪?/p>

際關(guān)系中采取更加包容的分析方法。理解“平衡實(shí)用主義”對(duì)實(shí)踐者來說至關(guān)重要，這挑戰(zhàn)了以國家為

中心的范式，強(qiáng)調(diào)通過權(quán)力和知識(shí)的變革交叉點(diǎn)進(jìn)行細(xì)致入微的治理。正如在 LBA 中看到的那樣，

將實(shí)用主義解釋為?？率降钠胶庑袨?，對(duì)國際關(guān)系有著廣泛的影響，敦促學(xué)者們將福柯的動(dòng)態(tài)結(jié)合起

來，對(duì)實(shí)用主義平衡進(jìn)行細(xì)致的全球分析。

【原文】Pragmatism, responding to the call for ‘decentring International Relations’, fosters analytical

eclecticism for resolving inter-paradigmatic disputes. John Dewey's pragmatism aligns seamlessly with

constructivism, offering nuanced insights. However, in bilateral relations, pragmatism is often confined within

realist frameworks, lacking analytical rigor for understanding governmentality. In this article, the author

challenges this by emphasizing relational power dynamics and non-neutral knowledge, introducing ‘balancing

pragmatism’ rooted in ‘bricolage’ for nuanced governance. Leveraging Foucauldian insights, the author

reconceptualizes governance pragmatism within the power-knowledge interplay, illustrated by the India–

Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA). The LBA's success challenges realist power paradigms,

recognizing the pivotal role of Foucauldian dynamics in enhancing pragmatic balancing. This enriches the

constructivist paradigm with discerning governance. Interpreting pragmatism through a Foucauldian lens in

the LBA underscores implications for bilateral governance, highlighting analytical eclecticism and

adaptability within a Foucauldian framework to address geopolitical challenges. It advocates for a more

inclusive analytical approach in international relations. Understanding ‘balancing pragmatism’ is crucial for

practitioners, challenging the state-centric paradigm and emphasizing nuanced governance through the

transformative intersection of power and knowledge. Interpreting pragmatism as a Foucauldian-informed

balancing act, as seen in the LBA, holds broad implications for IR, urging scholars to integrate Foucault's

dynamics for nuanced global analyses of pragmatic balancing.

【編譯：王涵婧】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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《國際研究評(píng)論》（Review of International Studies）

Review of International Studies， Vol.50, No.2, 2024

1. 機(jī)制復(fù)合體的協(xié)商：追蹤正在形成的機(jī)制復(fù)合體（Negotiating regime complexity:

Following a regime complex in the making）

Arne Langlet，維也納大學(xué)政治系博士生

Alice Vadrot，維也納大學(xué)政治系副教授

【摘要】本文重點(diǎn)分析了新國際協(xié)議的談判過程而非結(jié)果，拓展了對(duì)機(jī)制復(fù)合體的理解和實(shí)證研究。

雖然關(guān)注談判的結(jié)果對(duì)分析機(jī)制復(fù)合體的形成和界定很重要，但是國家談判中的場(chǎng)域卻被忽視了。本

文試圖通過兩種方式豐富全球治理研究的方法論工具箱：1、闡明在條約談判的社會(huì)空間中，國家與

國際組織之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系是如何促使機(jī)制復(fù)合體形成的；2、社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析（SNA）如何輔助揭示這

些關(guān)系中的模式。本文將參與觀察（法）與協(xié)作活動(dòng)民族志研究（CEE）和社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析相結(jié)合，從

而基于實(shí)證材料說明如何界定機(jī)制復(fù)合體，以及分析國際組織談判中的互動(dòng)。本文將此方法論應(yīng)用于

海洋生物多樣性治理，使用在《國家管轄范圍以外區(qū)域海洋生物多樣性條約》（BBNJ）的三次政府間

會(huì)議（IGCs）（2018—2019 年）期間收集到的觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。本文結(jié)合此方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)以及對(duì)未來機(jī)制復(fù)

合體研究的影響來討論研究結(jié)果。

【原文】This article broadens the understanding and empirical study of regime complexes by shifting the

focus from the negotiation outcome to the processes of negotiating new international agreements. Although

they are important to regime-complex formation and delimitation, the sites where states negotiate new

agreements are rather neglected. We aim to enhance the methodological toolbox available to scholars studying

global governance in two ways: (1) by demonstrating how dynamic relationships between states and

international organisations (IOs) unfolding within the social space of international treaty negotiations

contribute to regime-complex formation; and (2) how social network analysis (SNA) can help us to detect

patterns in these relationships. Combining participant observation and collaborative event ethnography (CEE)

with social network analysis, we present new empirical material illustrating how we delimited a regime

complex and how IOs interact throughout the negotiation process. We applied our methodology to the case of

《國際研究評(píng)論》（Review of International Studies）是由

劍橋大學(xué)出版社代表英國國際研究協(xié)會(huì)出版且同行評(píng)審

的國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)期刊，其前身為 British Journal of

International Studies (1975-1980)。該期刊致力于反映全球

政治的性質(zhì)變化和新興的政治挑戰(zhàn)，旨在為國際社會(huì)搭建

一個(gè)可供辯論的平臺(tái)用以討論當(dāng)下緊迫的全球議題。2020

年該期刊的影響因子為 2.73。

112

marine-biodiversity governance and use observational data collected during three intergovernmental

conferences (IGCs) (2018–19) on a new treaty for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity

beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) for our analysis. We discuss the results in relation to our approach’s

strengths and weaknesses and implications for future research on regime complexity.

2. 人際關(guān)系的力量：國際機(jī)構(gòu)與人權(quán)倡導(dǎo)的社會(huì)法律分析（The power of interpersonal

relationships: A socio-legal approach to international institutions and human rights

advocacy）

Nina Reiners，奧斯陸大學(xué)法學(xué)院人權(quán)與社會(huì)科學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】在既有研究的基礎(chǔ)上，本文進(jìn)一步提出并闡明以下論點(diǎn)，即個(gè)人之間的人際關(guān)系有助于人權(quán)

倡導(dǎo)在國際機(jī)構(gòu)中取得成功。從“倡導(dǎo)理論”和社會(huì)法律研究中出發(fā)，本文將研究重點(diǎn)從集體形式的倡

導(dǎo)轉(zhuǎn)移到國際機(jī)構(gòu)中倡導(dǎo)者個(gè)體之間，探究人際關(guān)系對(duì)人權(quán)發(fā)展的重要性。本文引入三步式分析框架，

1）描述倡導(dǎo)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中關(guān)鍵參與者的分布，并進(jìn)行 2）過程追蹤和 3）個(gè)人傳記研究。本文將該框架應(yīng)用

于聯(lián)合國人權(quán)條約機(jī)構(gòu)制定規(guī)范的三個(gè)案例，其結(jié)果突出了人際關(guān)系在人權(quán)制定過程中的作用，也為

跨國精英、人權(quán)倡導(dǎo)和國際法政治學(xué)等方面的學(xué)術(shù)研究提供啟示。

【原文】This article further develops and illustrates the argument that relationships between individuals help

to explain the success of human rights advocacy in international institutions. Drawing from advocacy theory

and socio-legal studies, I shift the attention from collective forms of advocacy to the importance of

interpersonal relationships of advocates with individuals in international institutions to influence the

development of human rights. I introduce a framework consisting of three analytical steps – mapping the key

actors in a network, process-tracing, and biographical research – and apply the framework to three cases of

norm development by a United Nations human rights treaty body. My findings highlight the power of

interpersonal relationships for the making of human rights, and they inform scholarship on transnational elites,

human rights advocacy, and the politics of international law.

3. 全球政治中的國際記憶：支持或反對(duì)聯(lián)合國干預(yù)利比亞和敘利亞（International

memories in global politics: Making the case for or against UN intervention in Libya and

Syria）

Kathrin Bachleitner，牛津大學(xué)國際發(fā)展部（難民研究中心）國際關(guān)系研究員

【摘要】本文重點(diǎn)關(guān)注記憶在聯(lián)合國理事會(huì)關(guān)于人道主義干預(yù)辯論中的作用和影響。本文認(rèn)為，歷史

經(jīng)驗(yàn)及其教訓(xùn)是討論抽象的國際準(zhǔn)則和原則時(shí)的解釋手段。本文認(rèn)為“國際記憶”意指在一組國家之間

融合的從過去獲得的意義和教訓(xùn)。本文實(shí)證案例探討了“阿拉伯之春”后聯(lián)合國代表如何利用極權(quán)主義

/法西斯主義以及殖民主義記憶，口頭呼吁對(duì)利比亞和敘利亞采取干預(yù)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，支持或反對(duì)人道主

義干預(yù)的人對(duì)這些記憶及其教訓(xùn)持有不同的解釋。然而，無論在哪種情況下，在實(shí)施作為人道主義干

預(yù)基礎(chǔ)的抽象國際原則、準(zhǔn)則和權(quán)利時(shí)，記憶都為國家提供了重要的規(guī)范性指導(dǎo)。

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

113

【原文】This paper is interested in the role and function of memories in United Nations Security Council

debates about humanitarian intervention. It posits that historical experiences and their lessons serve as

interpretative devices for the abstract international norms and principles under discussion. The paper speaks

of ‘international memories’ where the meaning and lessons derived from the past coalesce among a group of

states. Empirically, its case study explores how the memories of totalitarianism/fascism and colonialism were

employed in United Nations (UN) representatives’ verbal pleas to intervene in Libya and Syria after the Arab

Spring. It finds that those who supported or opposed humanitarian intervention held different interpretations

of these memories and their lessons. In each case, however, memories provided essential normative guidance

to states when it came to implementing the abstract international principles, norms, and rights that underlie

humanitarian intervention.

4. 跨國宣傳的雙螺旋糾纏：對(duì) LGBTI 權(quán)利的道德保守主義抵制（The double-helix

entanglements of transnational advocacy: Moral conservative resistance to LGBTI rights）

Phillip M. Ayoub，倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院政治學(xué)與公共政策學(xué)院教授

Kristina Stoeckl，意大利 Luiss 大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)系教授

【摘要】性取向和性別認(rèn)同邊緣化人群（LGBTI）的權(quán)利在許多國家得到了改善。很大程度上，這些

成就可以追溯到“螺旋模式”中的各種因素，包括 LGBTI 權(quán)利運(yùn)動(dòng)的跨國動(dòng)員、少數(shù)先驅(qū)政府的行動(dòng)

以及一些國際組織（IOs）人權(quán)框架的進(jìn)步。然而，某個(gè)跨國倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)（TAN）試圖通過重釋國際人權(quán)

法來主張其權(quán)利，致使反對(duì) LGBTI 權(quán)利的抵抗運(yùn)動(dòng)正在全球日益興起?；谑甑奶镆罢{(diào)查和對(duì)

LGBTI、反 LGBTI、國家和國際組織行為者的 240 次訪談，本文探討了保守的倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何運(yùn)作，包

括人員構(gòu)成及其如何構(gòu)建議程。本文認(rèn)為，保守倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)采用了使用了許多獲得 LGBTIQ 人群廣泛認(rèn)

可的跨國工具，同時(shí)也符合權(quán)利擴(kuò)散的螺旋模型，但處于本文稱之為雙螺旋的進(jìn)程當(dāng)中。正如雙螺旋

結(jié)構(gòu)所示，對(duì)立的跨國倡議網(wǎng)絡(luò)之間存在著互惠關(guān)系，必須在互動(dòng)空間中相互引導(dǎo)，從而使用相關(guān)的

策略和工具來實(shí)現(xiàn)相互排斥的目的。

【原文】The rights of people who are marginalised by their sexual orientation and gender identity (LGBTI)

have improved in many countries. Largely, these achievements can be traced back to the ‘spiral model’ of

factors including transnational mobilisation by the LGBTI rights movement, the actions of a few pioneering

governments, and advances in the human rights frameworks of some international organisations (IOs). Yet a

rising and increasingly globally connected resistance works against LGBTI rights. It rests predominantly in

the hands of a transnational advocacy network (TAN) that attempts to lay claim to international human rights

law by reinterpreting it. Drawing on a decade of fieldwork and 240 interviews with LGBTI, anti-LGBTI, and

state and IO actors, this article explores how the conservative TAN functions, in terms of who comprises it

and how its agenda is constructed. We argue that this TAN has employed many of the same transnational tools

that garnered LGBTIQ people their widespread recognition. It also conforms to the spiral model of rights

diffusion, but in a process we call a double helix. As the double-helix metaphor suggests, rival TANs have a

reciprocal relationship, having to navigate each other’s presence in an interactive space and thus using related

strategies and instruments for mutually exclusive ends.

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5. 超越女性代表人數(shù)：承認(rèn)女性在全球治理中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用（Beyond the numbers on

women’s representation: Recognition of women’s leadership in global governance）

Hortense Jongen，阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)國際關(guān)系助理教授

【摘要】全球治理的玻璃天花板被打破了多少？要回答這個(gè)問題，我們需要超越女性代表人數(shù)，研究

女性在何種程度上被視為全球治理中激勵(lì)人心且富有遠(yuǎn)見的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。本文從性別角度分析了人們對(duì)全

球多利益相關(guān)方倡議（multistakeholder initiatives）中激勵(lì)人心和富有遠(yuǎn)見的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的看法?；趯?duì)一

項(xiàng)前沿的多利益相關(guān)方倡議——互聯(lián)網(wǎng)名稱與數(shù)字地址分配機(jī)構(gòu)（ICANN）——參與者的 467 次訪

談，本文提出四項(xiàng)發(fā)現(xiàn)：1、受訪者認(rèn)為符合上述條件的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者人數(shù)中男性多于女性，這一差異大致

對(duì)應(yīng)于領(lǐng)導(dǎo)崗位中女性的比例；2、受訪者在解釋為什么認(rèn)為某些人符合上述條件時(shí)，傾向于將更多

的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)特質(zhì)歸于女性而非男性；3、對(duì)于 ICANN 的男性和女性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者而言，女性和男性的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)特質(zhì)都

受到贊賞；4、與男性受訪者相比，女性受訪者認(rèn)為符合上述條件的女性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者數(shù)量更多。這些研究

結(jié)果對(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的性別觀念和全球治理中榜樣的重要性提出了新的見解，也為全球多利益相關(guān)方安排中

對(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的要求和期望提供了亟需的啟示。

【原文】To what extent has the glass ceiling in global governance been shattered? To answer this question,

we need to look beyond the numbers on women’s representation and study how far women are perceived as

inspiring and visionary leaders in global governance. This article offers an analysis of perceptions of inspiring

and visionary leadership in global multistakeholder initiatives from a gender perspective. Based on 467

interviews with participants in a leading multistakeholder initiative, the Internet Corporation for Assigned

Names and Numbers (ICANN), it presents four findings: (1) respondents identify more men than women as

inspiring and visionary leaders, with the difference roughly corresponding to the share of women in leadership

roles; (2) respondents tend to ascribe more leadership attributes to women than to men when explaining why

they find them inspiring and visionary; (3) both feminine and masculine leadership traits are appreciated in

relation to both men and women leaders at ICANN; (4) female respondents identify more women as inspiring

and visionary leaders than male respondents. These findings contribute novel insights into gendered

perceptions around leadership and the importance of role models in global governance. They also shed muchneeded light on the demands and expectations from leadership in global multistakeholder arrangements.

6. 政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)中的行為體、活動(dòng)與權(quán)威類型（Actors, activities, and

forms of authority in the IPCC）

Hannah Hughes，卡迪夫大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系高級(jí)講師

【摘要】全球環(huán)境評(píng)估研究呼吁國際組織更具反思性，以應(yīng)對(duì)參與、觀點(diǎn)的包容性和對(duì)其所提供信息

的政策領(lǐng)域的響應(yīng)性方面的挑戰(zhàn)。然而，政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)（IPCC）研究中對(duì)反思性的呼吁

較少，以及缺乏檢驗(yàn)常規(guī)概念如何通過關(guān)注科學(xué)和政治而非其他社會(huì)動(dòng)態(tài)來制約學(xué)術(shù)理解。本文提出，

學(xué)術(shù)反思性能夠推動(dòng)發(fā)展新的分析方法，為不斷變化的組織結(jié)構(gòu)提供實(shí)用的見解。通過反思對(duì) IPCC

的理解，本文提供了一個(gè)關(guān)于行為體、活動(dòng)和權(quán)威類型新分析框架。通過應(yīng)用該框架，本文闡述了 IPCC

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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在專家小組、主席團(tuán)、技術(shù)支持單位、秘書處和作者內(nèi)部和之間的社會(huì)秩序，揭示了哪些行為體基于

何種權(quán)威對(duì)氣候變化的寫作擁有象征性權(quán)力。這一分析框架對(duì)各組織進(jìn)行的細(xì)致分析揭示了政府間關(guān)

系如何能夠和正在重塑主導(dǎo)地位，同時(shí)也可能為這些組織的管理者尋求挑戰(zhàn)統(tǒng)治力量的途徑提供線索。

【原文】Scholarship on global environmental assessments call for these organisations to become more

reflexive to address challenges around participation, inclusivity of perspectives, and responsivity to the policy

domains they inform. However, there has been less call for reflexivity in IPCC scholarship or closer

examination of how routine concepts condition scholarly understanding by focusing on science and politics

over other social dynamics. In this article, I suggest that scholarly reflexivity could advance new analytical

approaches that provide practical insights for changing organisational structures. Through reflecting on my

understanding of the IPCC, I develop actors, activities, and forms of authority as a new analytical framework

for studying international organisations and knowledge bodies. Through its application, I describe the social

order of the IPCC within and between the panel, the bureau, the technical support units, the secretariat and the

authors, which is revealing of which actors, on the basis of what authority, have symbolic power over the

writing of climate change. The fine-grained analysis of organisations enabled by this analytical framework

reveals how dominance can and is being remade through intergovernmental relations and potentially, identifies

avenues that managers of these bodies can pursue to challenge it.

7. 國家之后，人性之前？在伊拉克、阿富汗和巴勒斯坦的合法性元政治學(xué)與國際刑事法

院（After states, before humanity? The meta-politics of legality and the International

Criminal Court in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Palestine）

Janis Grzybowski，里爾天主教大學(xué)國際關(guān)系講師

Filipe dos Reis，哥本哈根大學(xué)國際關(guān)系講師

【摘要】在關(guān)于國際事務(wù)、特別是國際刑事法院（ICC）司法化和非司法化的辯論中，合法性與政治

性、國家主權(quán)與國際性之間的區(qū)別仍然存在爭(zhēng)議?，F(xiàn)實(shí)主義和法律主義討論了國際刑事法對(duì)國際政治

的改造，而社會(huì)學(xué)和批判法學(xué)視角則強(qiáng)調(diào)了國際刑事法的政治性。本文重點(diǎn)關(guān)注（國際）法律與政治

之間的區(qū)別如何產(chǎn)生影響，并非將其視為實(shí)質(zhì)上對(duì)立的領(lǐng)域，而是作為國際刑事法院自身在考慮特定

情況時(shí)偶一為之且靈活劃定的界限。在司法利益、司法管轄范圍或互補(bǔ)性的應(yīng)用等看似技術(shù)性的闡述

中，這些援引和再現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵界限的元政治學(xué)不僅反映了國際刑事法院的特殊權(quán)威，也反映了法院在推動(dòng)

國際刑法為人類服務(wù)而非國家服務(wù)時(shí)所處的困境，再現(xiàn)了（國際）法律與政治之間的區(qū)別。本文通過

重新審查國際刑事法院對(duì)三項(xiàng)涉嫌國際罪行指控的判決來說明其元政治，包括在伊拉克的英國軍隊(duì)、

在阿富汗的塔利班、政府軍和美軍，還有在約旦河西岸、東耶路撒冷和加沙的以色列和巴勒斯坦。

【原文】In the debate on the (de-)judicialisation of international affairs and the International Criminal Court

(ICC) specifically, the distinctions between legality and politics and between state sovereignty and the

international remain contested. While realist and legalist approaches discuss the transformation of international

politics by international criminal law, sociological and critical-legal perspectives instead highlight the politics

of international criminal law. In this contribution, we focus on how the distinctions between (international)

law and politics matter, not as substantively opposed spheres, but as boundaries that the ICC itself contingently

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and flexibly draws when considering particular situations. These meta-politics of invoking and reproducing

key boundaries in seemingly technical elaborations of the interest of justice, the scope of its jurisdiction, or

the application of complementarity reflect the Court’s particular authority but also its predicament of pushing

for an international criminal law serving humanity, rather than states, while reproducing the distinctions

between (international) law and politics. We illustrate the Court’s meta-politics by revisiting three recent

decisions of the ICC to (not) investigate alleged international crimes committed by British forces in Iraq, by

the Taliban, governmental, and US forces in Afghanistan, and by Israeli authorities and Palestinian groups in

the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

8. 歐盟的概念政治和應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的韌性（Conceptual politics and resilience-at-work in the

European Union）

Jonathan Joseph，布里斯托大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系教授

Ana E. Juncos，布里斯托大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系教授

【摘要】國際性危機(jī)往往從會(huì)根本上改變我們對(duì)世界的看法，以及在世界中所處的位置，例如新冠疫

情和俄烏沖突。危機(jī)凸顯了歐盟在本體論和認(rèn)識(shí)論方面的不確定性和不安全感，因此其尤其容易受到

這些事態(tài)發(fā)展的影響。歐盟的韌性（resilience）轉(zhuǎn)向始于 2016 年歐盟全球戰(zhàn)略，其旨在為外部沖擊做

好準(zhǔn)備，加強(qiáng)歐盟的恢復(fù)能力，但自那時(shí)起，韌性概念發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。近年來，我們看到歐盟開始自我

反思，放棄了韌性的激進(jìn)方面。因此，出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)悖論——?dú)W盟面臨的問題越復(fù)雜，就越遠(yuǎn)離韌性概

念中的復(fù)雜性邏輯。通過行動(dòng)中的概念和這些概念在外部環(huán)境中反映變化的方式，以及權(quán)力聯(lián)盟和制

度路徑依賴，本文試圖研究這一概念的轉(zhuǎn)變，并以《戰(zhàn)略指南》（Strategic Compass）和歐盟復(fù)蘇與韌

性基金（Recovery and Resilience Facility）為例來探討這一論點(diǎn)。

【原文】International crises, most recently the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, often

radically change our view of the world and our place within it. The European Union (EU) has been particularly

impacted by these developments because these crises have accentuated some of its ontological and

epistemological uncertainties and insecurities. While the EU’s resilience turn initiated by the EU Global

Strategy of 2016 aimed at strengthening the EU’s ability to prepare and recover from external shocks and

crises, since then, the concept of resilience has undergone a transformation. In recent years, we have seen the

EU turning back in on itself and abandoning the radical aspects of resilience. Hence a paradox has emerged –

the more complex the problems faced by the EU, the more it turns away from the logics of complexity present

in the idea of resilience. In this article, we examine this conceptual shift through the lenses of concepts in

action and the way these have reflected changes in the external context, but also power coalitions and

institutional path dependencies. This argument will be explored by examining the recently adopted Strategic

Compass and the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

9. 對(duì)心靈的侵犯：戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和壓迫中的父母?jìng)Γ╒iolations of the heart: Parental harm in

war and oppression）

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

117

Rebekka Friedman，倫敦國王學(xué)院高級(jí)講師

Hanna Ketola，倫敦國王學(xué)院博士后研究員

【摘要】本文探討了“父母?jìng)Α保╬arental harm）——當(dāng)父母面臨（可能）失去子女的威脅時(shí)所受到的

傷害。在各種歷史背景下，操縱和割斷父母與子女之間的關(guān)系在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和壓迫中發(fā)揮了核心作用，對(duì)父

母的傷害具有長(zhǎng)期和普遍的影響，并給看護(hù)及其社區(qū)帶來復(fù)雜的影響。盡管其影響嚴(yán)重，但國際關(guān)系

中關(guān)于父母的傷害及其影響的研究卻很少。本文通過兩個(gè)框架，即“分離的傷害”和“影響撫養(yǎng)能力的

傷害”，來對(duì)“父母?jìng)Α边M(jìn)行概念化，并從性別層面對(duì)父母?jìng)Φ难永m(xù)和影響進(jìn)行理論化。因此，本文

深化了將家庭作為一個(gè)性別化制度的女性主義理解，該制度塑造了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)行為并使種族壓迫制度化。本

文對(duì)父母?jìng)Φ母拍顬橛H密關(guān)系、家庭、國家權(quán)力和實(shí)踐之間的關(guān)系提供了新的見解。本文通過兩個(gè)

例子來闡述概念論證：美國前南北戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)時(shí)期奴隸制中對(duì)家庭的控制和操縱，以及將泰米爾族兒童作為

綁架目標(biāo)的斯里蘭卡失蹤事件。這些例證展示了父母?jìng)υ诓煌尘昂托问降谋┝χ械钠毡榇嬖凇?/p>

【原文】This article examines ‘parental harm’ – a harm that occurs when a parent loses or faces the threat of

losing a child. We contend that the manipulation and severing of relationships between parents and children

has played a central role in war and oppression across historical contexts. Parental harm has long-term and

pervasive effects and results in complex legacies for carers and their communities. Despite its grave impact,

there is little research within International Relations into parental harm and understanding of its effects. We

conceptualise parental harm through two frames – the ‘harm of separation’ and ‘harm to the ability to parent’

– and theorise gendered dimensions of how it is perpetuated and experienced. As such, we advance feminist

understandings of family as a gendered institution that shapes the conduct of war and institutionalises

racialised oppression. Our conception of parental harm offers novel insights into the relationship between

intimate relations, the family, and state power and practices. We illustrate our conceptual arguments through

two examples: the control and manipulation of family in antebellum slavery in the United States and the

targeting of Tamil children in disappearances in Sri Lanka. These examples demonstrate the pervasiveness of

parental harm across contexts and forms of violence.

【編譯：楊魯華】

【責(zé)任編輯：封欣怡】

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《政治分析》（Political Analysis）

Political Analysis， Vol.32, No.2, 2024

1. 廣義核正則最小二乘法（Generalized Kernel Regularized Least Squares）

Qing Chang，匹茲堡大學(xué)政治學(xué)博士研究生

Max Goplerud，匹茲堡大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授

【摘要】核正則化最小二乘法（KRLS）是一種流行的方法，可用于靈活估計(jì)變量間可能存在的復(fù)雜

關(guān)系模型。然而，由于兩個(gè)原因，對(duì)許多研究人員來說它的實(shí)用性受到了限制。首先，現(xiàn)有方法不夠

靈活，無法將 KRLS 與隨機(jī)效應(yīng)、非規(guī)則化固定效應(yīng)或非高斯結(jié)果等理論性擴(kuò)展結(jié)合起來。其次，即

使是大小適中的數(shù)據(jù)集，估算工作的計(jì)算量也非常之大。本文通過引入廣義 KRLS（gKRLS）來解決

這兩個(gè)問題。本文認(rèn)為，KRLS 可以被重新表述為一個(gè)分層模型，從而可以方便地進(jìn)行推斷和模塊化

模型構(gòu)建，其中 KRLS 能夠與隨機(jī)效應(yīng)、樣條曲線和非規(guī)則化固定效應(yīng)一起使用。在計(jì)算方面，還實(shí)

現(xiàn)了隨機(jī)草圖，以顯著加快估計(jì)速度，但同時(shí)也會(huì)對(duì)估計(jì)質(zhì)量產(chǎn)生有限的影響。本文證明，gKRLS 可

以在 1 分鐘內(nèi)擬合數(shù)以萬計(jì)的觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)集。此外，需要擬合十幾次模型的最先進(jìn)技術(shù)（如元學(xué)習(xí)器）

也可以快速估計(jì)。

【原文】Kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) is a popular method for flexibly estimating models that may

have complex relationships between variables. However, its usefulness to many researchers is limited for two

reasons. First, existing approaches are inflexible and do not allow KRLS to be combined with theoretically

motivated extensions such as random effects, unregularized fixed effects, or non-Gaussian outcomes. Second,

estimation is extremely computationally intensive for even modestly sized datasets. Our paper addresses both

concerns by introducing generalized KRLS (gKRLS). We note that KRLS can be re-formulated as a

hierarchical model thereby allowing easy inference and modular model construction where KRLS can be used

alongside random effects, splines, and unregularized fixed effects. Computationally, we also implement

random sketching to dramatically accelerate estimation while incurring a limited penalty in estimation quality.

We demonstrate that gKRLS can be fit on datasets with tens of thousands of observations in under 1 min.

《政治分析》（Political Analysis）發(fā)表同行評(píng)審的文章，

這些文章提供了政治方法論一般領(lǐng)域的原創(chuàng)性和重大進(jìn)

展，包括定量和定性方法論方法。它是政治方法論學(xué)會(huì)和

美國政治科學(xué)協(xié)會(huì)政治方法論分會(huì)的官方期刊。

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Further, state-of-the-art techniques that require fitting the model over a dozen times (e.g., meta-learners) can

be estimated quickly.

2. 分離下的假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)（Hypothesis Tests under Separation）

Carlisle Rainey，佛羅里達(dá)州立大學(xué)政治學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】政治學(xué)中通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)二元解釋變量與二元結(jié)果完全預(yù)測(cè)分離的情況。在這種情況下，方法論

專家通常建議采用懲罰最大似然法或貝葉斯估計(jì)法。但研究人員可能難以確定適當(dāng)?shù)膽土P或先驗(yàn)分布。

本文研究表明，研究人員可以使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)頻率工具輕松檢驗(yàn)有關(guān)模型系數(shù)的假設(shè)。雖然流行的 Wald 檢

驗(yàn)在分離條件下會(huì)產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)性（甚至無意義）的 p 值，但作者的研究表明，似然比檢驗(yàn)和分?jǐn)?shù)檢驗(yàn)的

行為與通常的方式相同。因此，在分離條件下，研究人員無需使用懲罰或先驗(yàn)信息，就能利用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)頻

率工具得出有意義的 p 值。

【原文】Separation commonly occurs in political science, usually when a binary explanatory variable perfectly

predicts a binary outcome. In these situations, methodologists often recommend penalized maximum

likelihood or Bayesian estimation. But researchers might struggle to identify an appropriate penalty or prior

distribution. Fortunately, I show that researchers can easily test hypotheses about the model coefficients with

standard frequentist tools. While the popular Wald test produces misleading (even nonsensical) p-values under

separation, I show that likelihood ratio tests and score tests behave in the usual manner. Therefore, researchers

can produce meaningful p-values with standard frequentist tools under separation without the use of penalties

or prior information.

3. 國際關(guān)系中的二元聚類（Dyadic Clustering in International Relations）

Jacob Carlson，哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)系博士生

Trevor Incerti，阿姆斯特丹大學(xué)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)助理教授

P. M. Aronow，耶魯大學(xué)政治學(xué)系副教授

【摘要】國際關(guān)系中的定量實(shí)證研究通常依賴于二元數(shù)據(jù)。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析技術(shù)并沒有考慮到二元體通常并

不相互獨(dú)立的事實(shí)。也就是說，當(dāng)二元體共享一個(gè)組成成員（例如，一個(gè)共同的國家）時(shí)，它們可能

在統(tǒng)計(jì)上是相互依賴的，或“聚類”的。本文開發(fā)出了考慮到這種依賴性的二元聚類穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差

（DCRSE）。使用這些二元聚類穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差，作者重新分析了 2014 年 1 月至 2020 年 1 月期間發(fā)表

在《國際組織》上的所有以二元數(shù)據(jù)為特征的實(shí)證文章。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，已發(fā)表的關(guān)鍵解釋變量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤

差平均約為二元聚類穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差的一半，這表明二元聚類導(dǎo)致研究人員嚴(yán)重低估了不確定性。然而，

在使用二元聚類穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差時(shí)，大多數(shù)（67%）具有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義的研究結(jié)果仍然具有統(tǒng)計(jì)顯著性。

因此，得出的結(jié)論是，考慮二元聚類既重要又可行，并提供了 R 和 Stata 軟件以促進(jìn)在未來研究中使

用二元聚類穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差。

【原文】Quantitative empirical inquiry in international relations often relies on dyadic data. Standard analytic

techniques do not account for the fact that dyads are not generally independent of one another. That is, when

dyads share a constituent member (e.g., a common country), they may be statistically dependent, or “clustered.”

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Recent work has developed dyadic clustering robust standard errors (DCRSEs) that account for this

dependence. Using these DCRSEs, we reanalyzed all empirical articles published in International Organization

between January 2014 and January 2020 that feature dyadic data. We find that published standard errors for

key explanatory variables are, on average, approximately half as large as DCRSEs, suggesting that dyadic

clustering is leading researchers to severely underestimate uncertainty. However, most (67% of) statistically

significant findings remain statistically significant when using DCRSEs. We conclude that accounting for

dyadic clustering is both important and feasible, and offer software in R and Stata to facilitate use of DCRSEs

in future research.

4. 視覺框架無監(jiān)督和半監(jiān)督分析框架（A Framework for the Unsupervised and SemiSupervised Analysis of Visual Frames）

Michelle Torres，加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校政治學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】本文向政治科學(xué)界介紹了一種通過無監(jiān)督和半監(jiān)督方法分析視覺材料內(nèi)容的框架。詳細(xì)介紹

了計(jì)算機(jī)視覺領(lǐng)域的一種工具——視覺詞袋（BoVW）的實(shí)施情況，該工具用于定義和提取“標(biāo)記”，

使研究人員能夠建立一個(gè)圖像-視覺詞矩陣，從而模仿文本分析中的文檔-術(shù)語矩陣。這種還原技術(shù)是

社會(huì)科學(xué)家所熟悉的幾種工具的基礎(chǔ)，例如允許對(duì)圖像進(jìn)行探索性和半監(jiān)督分析的主題模型。與其他

深度學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)相比，該框架在透明度、可解釋性和領(lǐng)域知識(shí)的包容性方面都有所提高。作者通過建立

一個(gè)新穎的視覺結(jié)構(gòu)主題模型來說明 BoVW 的范圍，該模型實(shí)質(zhì)上側(cè)重于從中美洲移民大篷車的圖

片中識(shí)別視覺框架。

【原文】This article introduces to political science a framework to analyze the content of visual material

through unsupervised and semi-supervised methods. It details the implementation of a tool from the computer

vision field, the Bag of Visual Words (BoVW), for the definition and extraction of “tokens” that allow

researchers to build an Image-Visual Word Matrix which emulates the Document-Term matrix in text analysis.

This reduction technique is the basis for several tools familiar to social scientists, such as topic models, that

permit exploratory, and semi-supervised analysis of images. The framework has gains in transparency,

interpretability, and inclusion of domain knowledge with respect to other deep learning techniques. I illustrate

the scope of the BoVW by conducting a novel visual structural topic model which focuses substantively on

the identification of visual frames from the pictures of the migrant caravan from Central America.

5. 從大規(guī)模新聞檔案中進(jìn)行人臉檢測(cè)、跟蹤和分類，以分析關(guān)鍵政治人物（Face

Detection, Tracking, and Classification from Large-Scale News Archives for Analysis of

Key Political Figures）

Andreu Girbau，東京國家信息研究所數(shù)字內(nèi)容和媒體科學(xué)研究部研究員

Tetsuro Kobayashi，早稻田大學(xué)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院教授

Benjamin Renoust，大阪大學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)性科學(xué)研究所博士

Yusuke Matsui，東京大學(xué)信息科學(xué)研究生院信息通信工學(xué)系助理教授

Shin’ichi Satoh，東京大學(xué)信息科學(xué)與技術(shù)研究生院教授

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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【摘要】隨著大規(guī)模新聞檔案的日益普及和計(jì)算機(jī)視覺技術(shù)的發(fā)展，分析政治人物在大規(guī)模新聞檔案

中的出現(xiàn)變得越來越重要。本文提出了一種基于深度學(xué)習(xí)的方法，該方法結(jié)合了人臉檢測(cè)、跟蹤和分

類，尤其獨(dú)特的是，它在鎖定新的目標(biāo)人物時(shí)不需要任何重新訓(xùn)練。用戶只需提供目標(biāo)個(gè)體的少量圖

像，就能對(duì)其進(jìn)行可靠的檢測(cè)、跟蹤和分類。本文對(duì)兩個(gè)跨度 10 到 20 年的新聞檔案中的著名政治人

物進(jìn)行了廣泛驗(yàn)證，（一個(gè)包含三個(gè)美國有線電視新聞，另一個(gè)包含兩個(gè)日本主要新聞節(jié)目），結(jié)果

一致表明了所提出方法的高性能和靈活性。這些代碼可以隨時(shí)向公眾開放。

【原文】Analyzing the appearances of political figures in large-scale news archives is increasingly important

with the growing availability of large-scale news archives and developments in computer vision. We present

a deep learning-based method combining face detection, tracking, and classification, which is particularly

unique because it does not require any re-training when targeting new individuals. Users can feed only a few

images of target individuals to reliably detect, track, and classify them. Extensive validation of prominent

political figures in two news archives spanning 10 to 20 years, one containing three U.S. cable news and the

other including two major Japanese news programs, consistently shows high performance and flexibility of

the proposed method. The codes are made readily available to the public.

6. 實(shí)施很重要：評(píng)估比例風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)試的性能（Implementation Matters: Evaluating the

Proportional Hazard Test’s Performance）

Shawna K. Metzger，布法羅大學(xué)政治學(xué)系助理教授

【摘要】政治學(xué)家通常使用 Grambsch 和 Therneau（1994，Biometrika 81，515-526）普遍存在的 Schoenfeld

檢驗(yàn)來診斷 Cox 持續(xù)時(shí)間模型中的比例風(fēng)險(xiǎn)違規(guī)情況。然而，一些統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件包已經(jīng)改變了檢驗(yàn)的計(jì)算

方法。傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)方法對(duì)檢驗(yàn)的方差-協(xié)方差矩陣做了簡(jiǎn)化假設(shè)，而新的方法則沒有。最新的研究表

明，檢驗(yàn)的性能會(huì)根據(jù)其實(shí)施情況而有所不同。作者使用蒙特卡洛模擬來更徹底地調(diào)查測(cè)試的實(shí)施是

否會(huì)影響其性能。令人驚訝的是，作者發(fā)現(xiàn)較新的實(shí)現(xiàn)方法在相關(guān)協(xié)變量上的表現(xiàn)非常之差，誤判率

遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過 5%，相比之下，傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)方法在同樣的情況下卻不存在此類問題。這一令人震驚的發(fā)現(xiàn)

為研究人員提出了新的、復(fù)雜的問題。就目前而言，研究人員在其簡(jiǎn)化假設(shè)有可能得到滿足的情況下

應(yīng)當(dāng)傾向于使用傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)方法，但也必須注意，這種實(shí)現(xiàn)方法的誤報(bào)率在指定錯(cuò)誤的模型中可能會(huì)

很高。

【原文】Political scientists commonly use Grambsch and Therneau’s (1994, Biometrika 81, 515–526)

ubiquitous Schoenfeld-based test to diagnose proportional hazard violations in Cox duration models. However,

some statistical packages have changed how they implement the test’s calculation. The traditional

implementation makes a simplifying assumption about the test’s variance–covariance matrix, while the newer

implementation does not. Recent work suggests the test’s performance differs, depending on its

implementation. I use Monte Carlo simulations to more thoroughly investigate whether the test’s

implementation affects its performance. Surprisingly, I find the newer implementation performs very poorly

with correlated covariates, with a false positive rate far above 5%. By contrast, the traditional implementation

has no such issues in the same situations. This shocking finding raises new, complex questions for researchers

moving forward. It appears to suggest, for now, researchers should favor the traditional implementation in

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situations where its simplifying assumption is likely met, but researchers must also be mindful that this

implementation’s false positive rate can be high in misspecified models.

7. 解釋招募極端主義：貝葉斯分層案例對(duì)照方法（Explaining Recruitment to Extremism:

A Bayesian Hierarchical Case–Control Approach）

Roberto Cerina，阿姆斯特丹大學(xué)邏輯、語言和計(jì)算研究所媒體研究系

Christopher Barrie，愛丁堡愛丁堡大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)系講師

Neil Ketchley，牛津大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系系政治學(xué)副教授

Aaron Y. Zelin，蘭迪斯大學(xué)政治系訪問研究學(xué)者

【摘要】誰加入了極端主義運(yùn)動(dòng)？由于調(diào)查技術(shù)的不可行，而選擇性樣本又無法提供反事實(shí)，因此回

答這一問題在方法上面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)。加入極端組織的新兵可以被分配到相關(guān)單位，但這很容易受到生

態(tài)推理問題的影響。在本文中，闡述了一種結(jié)合調(diào)查和生態(tài)學(xué)方法的技術(shù)。本文提出的貝葉斯分層病

例對(duì)照設(shè)計(jì)使研究者能夠識(shí)別個(gè)人層面和背景因素，這些因素影響了極端主義招募的模式和發(fā)生率，

同時(shí)考慮了空間自相關(guān)、罕見事件和污染。本文將來自九個(gè)中東和北非國家的伊斯蘭國（ISIS）戰(zhàn)士

樣本與新兵加入該運(yùn)動(dòng)前不久進(jìn)行的代表性人口調(diào)查相匹配，從而對(duì)方法進(jìn)行了實(shí)證驗(yàn)證。結(jié)果表明，

二十歲出頭、受過大學(xué)教育的較高地位人士更有可能加入伊斯蘭國。而關(guān)于相對(duì)剝奪感的證據(jù)則比較

復(fù)雜。隨附的 ExtremeR 軟件包為應(yīng)用研究人員提供了實(shí)施該方法的功能。

【原文】Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question is beset by methodological challenges as

survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to

contextual units, but this is vulnerable to problems of ecological inference. In this article, we elaborate a

technique that combines survey and ecological approaches. The Bayesian hierarchical case–control design that

we propose allows us to identify individual-level and contextual factors patterning the incidence of recruitment

to extremism, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, rare events, and contamination. We empirically

validate our approach by matching a sample of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters from nine MENA countries with

representative population surveys enumerated shortly before recruits joined the movement. High-status

individuals in their early twenties with college education were more likely to join ISIS. There is more mixed

evidence for relative deprivation. The accompanying extremeR package provides functionality for applied

researchers to implement our approach.

8. ?？怂剐侣剬?duì)冠狀病毒疫情（COVID-19）期間健康行為的影響（The Effect of Fox

News on Health Behavior during COVID-19）

Elliott Ash，Sergio Galletta，Dominik Hangartner，蘇黎世聯(lián)邦理工學(xué)院人文、社會(huì)和政治科學(xué)系

Matteo Pinna，Yotam Margalit，特拉維夫大學(xué)政治學(xué)與國際事務(wù)學(xué)院教授

【摘要】在 2020 年冠狀病毒（COVID-19）大流行的最初幾周，?？怂剐侣?lì)l道提出了一種懷疑論，

以淡化該病毒帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種敘述產(chǎn)生了重大影響：在?？怂剐侣勈找暵瘦^高的地區(qū)（由

于頻道定位的隨機(jī)變化而產(chǎn)生的外生因素），人們不太可能采取旨在保持社交距離的行為（例如待在

家里），并且防疫商品的消費(fèi)也更少（例如清潔產(chǎn)品、洗手液和口罩）。通過使用原始調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，本

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

123

文發(fā)現(xiàn)?？怂剐侣劦挠绊懖粌H來自其長(zhǎng)期以來對(duì)科學(xué)的不信任立場(chǎng)，還來自于將 COVID-19 威脅最小

化的特定節(jié)目?jī)?nèi)容。綜上所述，研究結(jié)果表明，媒體報(bào)道中的錯(cuò)誤信息會(huì)對(duì)觀眾的信念和行為產(chǎn)生重

大影響，即使在事關(guān)重大的情況下也是如此。

【原文】In the early weeks of the 2020 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Fox News Channel advanced

a skeptical narrative that downplayed the risks posed by the virus. We find that this narrative had significant

consequences: in localities with higher Fox News viewership—exogenous due to random variation in channel

positioning—people were less likely to adopt behaviors geared toward social distancing (e.g., staying at home)

and consumed fewer goods in preparation (e.g., cleaning products, hand sanitizers, and masks). Using original

survey data, we find that the effect of Fox News came not merely from its long-standing distrustful stance

toward science, but also due to program-specific content that minimized the COVID-19 threat. Taken together,

our results demonstrate the significant impact that misinformation in media coverage can exert on viewers’

beliefs and behavior, even in high-stakes situations.

9. 交易自由：根據(jù)聯(lián)合數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì) COVID-19 政策偏好（Trading Liberties: Estimating

COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data）

Felix Hartmann，F(xiàn)erdinand Geissler，Heike Klüver，Johannes Giesecke， 柏林洪堡大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)系

Macartan Humphreys，柏林洪堡大學(xué)的名譽(yù)教授，“制度與政治不平等”研究小組主任

【摘要】調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)是衡量政策偏好的重要工具。研究人員經(jīng)常依靠政策屬性水平的隨機(jī)分配來估計(jì)不

同類型的平均邊際效應(yīng)。然而，研究人員往往對(duì)受訪者如何權(quán)衡不同的政策維度感興趣。本文利用對(duì)

德國 10000 多名受訪者進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)聯(lián)合實(shí)驗(yàn)，以研究 COVID-19 危機(jī)期間受訪者對(duì)個(gè)人自由和公共福

利的偏好。本文使用預(yù)先設(shè)定的結(jié)構(gòu)模型，估計(jì)了政策理想點(diǎn)和無差異曲線，以評(píng)估公民愿意為了公

共福祉而犧牲自由的條件。記錄了人們接受權(quán)利限制的廣泛意愿，以及疫苗接種狀況的顯著異質(zhì)性。

大多數(shù)公民都接種了疫苗，并強(qiáng)烈支持對(duì)自由進(jìn)行限制，以應(yīng)對(duì)極端條件——特別是當(dāng)他們自己接種

疫苗時(shí)就可以免受這些限制。而未接種疫苗的少數(shù)人，無論疫情有多嚴(yán)重，他們都希望自由不受限制。

這些一攬子政策影響了人們對(duì)政府的信任度，而接種疫苗和未接種疫苗的公民對(duì)政府的信任度正好截

然相反。

【原文】Survey experiments are an important tool to measure policy preferences. Researchers often rely on

the random assignment of policy attribute levels to estimate different types of average marginal effects. Yet,

researchers are often interested in how respondents trade-off different policy dimensions. We use a conjoint

experiment administered to more than 10,000 respondents in Germany, to study preferences over personal

freedoms and public welfare during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a pre-registered structural model, we estimate

policy ideal points and indifference curves to assess the conditions under which citizens are willing to sacrifice

freedoms in the interest of public well-being. We document broad willingness to accept restrictions on rights

alongside sharp heterogeneity with respect to vaccination status. The majority of citizens are vaccinated and

strongly support limitations on freedoms in response to extreme conditions—especially, when they vaccinated

themselves are exempted from these limitations. The unvaccinated minority prefers no restrictions on freedoms

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regardless of the severity of the pandemic. These policy packages also matter for reported trust in government,

in opposite ways for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.

【編譯：鄒梓軒】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評(píng)論》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）

Cambridge Review of International Affairs， Vol. 37, No. 2, 2024

1. 作為朝鮮公共外交工具的宣傳照片：對(duì)金正恩效應(yīng)的實(shí)驗(yàn)分析（Propaganda

photographs as a tool of North Korean public diplomacy: an experimental analysis of the

Kim Jong-un effect）

Olli Hellmann，新西蘭懷卡托大學(xué)政治學(xué)和國際關(guān)系高級(jí)講師

Kai Opperman，德國開姆尼茨理工大學(xué)國際政治學(xué)教授

【摘要】越來越多的研究表明，像其他國家一樣，朝鮮也十分在意自己在國際上的形象。然而，到目

前為止，人們對(duì)朝鮮的戰(zhàn)略努力在改善其在外國民眾形象方面的效果知之甚少。作為解決這一差距的

第一步，本文對(duì)美國成年人的代表性樣本（N = 800）進(jìn)行了嚴(yán)格的調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)，以證明由朝鮮的官方媒

體朝鮮中央通訊社（KCNA）制作和發(fā)布的金正恩的宣傳照片成功地改善了一些人對(duì)朝鮮的看法，盡

管只是在政治知識(shí)有限的受眾中。通過提供證據(jù)證明新聞?wù)掌怯行У膽?zhàn)略傳播工具，本文也對(duì)媒介

公共外交的一般學(xué)術(shù)研究做出了原創(chuàng)和重要貢獻(xiàn)，迄今為止，這些學(xué)術(shù)研究很少關(guān)注視覺媒體作為形

象管理工具。

【原文】A growing body of research shows that the pariah regime of North Korea—as other countries too—

cares about how it is perceived internationally. However, so far, we know very little about how effective North

Korea’s strategic efforts are in improving its image among foreign audiences. As a first step toward addressing

《劍橋國際事務(wù)評(píng)論》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行評(píng)審期刊，發(fā)表關(guān)于國際事務(wù)的創(chuàng)新

學(xué)術(shù)成果。其涵蓋社會(huì)科學(xué)領(lǐng)域，包括國際關(guān)系、歷史、

法律、政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、地區(qū)研究、發(fā)展研究和性別研究。它

致力于采用多樣化的方法和方法，并鼓勵(lì)學(xué)術(shù)界和政策制

定者提交多學(xué)科和跨學(xué)科的貢獻(xiàn)。其 2021 年的影響因子

為 2.492，在 96 種國際關(guān)系期刊中排名第 33。

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

125

this gap, we employ a rigorous survey experiment among a representative sample of US adults (N?=?800) to

demonstrate that propaganda photographs of Kim Jong-un—produced and distributed by the regime’s official

mouthpiece, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)—succeed in improving perceptions of North Korea,

albeit only among audiences with limited political knowledge. By providing evidence that news photographs

are effective strategic communication instruments, our paper also makes an original and significant

contribution to general scholarship on mediated public diplomacy, which has until now paid little attention to

visual media as a tool of image management.

2. 從中國視角看俄羅斯在中東的“機(jī)會(huì)主義”（An opportunistic Russia in the Middle

East, a view from China）

Andrea Ghiselli，復(fù)旦大學(xué)國際關(guān)系與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院助理教授

【原文】As Sino-American competition and Russo-American tensions continue to rise, many believe that

China and Russia have established an increasingly well-coordinated division of labour to undermine the United

States. Yet, this discussion has long neglected the analysis of Sino-Russian relations in the Middle East despite

the importance of that region. Hence, this article investigates how Russian actions there are perceived in China

through the analysis of the debate among Chinese foreign policy experts. Russia is seen as an opportunistic

actor whose behaviour is only partially consistent with Chinese interests. However, problems related to

China’s own Middle East policy and the pressure caused by the rivalry with the United States in Asia greatly

limit China’s capability to adopt a more assertive approach. These findings prompt important considerations

about the dynamics of the triangular Sino-Russian-American relations. They also help us to understand

Chinese foreign policy and the evolution of world politics better.

3. 唐納德·特朗普與國際組織的生存戰(zhàn)略：機(jī)構(gòu)行為體何時(shí)才能應(yīng)對(duì)生存挑戰(zhàn)？

（Donald Trump and the survival strategies of international organisations: when can

institutional actors counter existential challenges？）

Hylke Dijkstra，荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學(xué)政治學(xué)系的副教授

Laura von Allw?rden，荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學(xué)政治學(xué)系的博士候選人

Leonard A. Schuette，荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學(xué)政治學(xué)系博士生

Giuseppe Zaccaria，荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學(xué)政治學(xué)系的博士候選人

【摘要】特朗普政府給許多國際組織帶來了前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。本文分析了國際組織的應(yīng)對(duì)能力，并解

釋了其機(jī)構(gòu)行動(dòng)者所采取的生存策略的差異。本文認(rèn)為，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力、組織結(jié)構(gòu)、能力和外部網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響著

機(jī)構(gòu)行動(dòng)者能否制定和實(shí)施應(yīng)對(duì)生存挑戰(zhàn)的措施。本文提供了北大西洋公約組織（NATO）、《聯(lián)合

國氣候變化框架公約》（UNFCCC）和世界貿(mào)易組織（WTO）的證據(jù)，說明了機(jī)構(gòu)行動(dòng)者在對(duì)特朗普

采取生存策略方面的能力差異。北約官員公開利用特朗普在責(zé)任分擔(dān)問題上的挑戰(zhàn)，同時(shí)在對(duì)俄政策

上悄悄地保護(hù)聯(lián)盟不受特朗普的影響。聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》（UNFCCC）官員認(rèn)為美國退出《巴

黎協(xié)定》是不可避免的，并專注于通過與非國家行為體結(jié)盟來防止美國進(jìn)一步退出。世貿(mào)組織官員缺

乏制定戰(zhàn)略對(duì)策的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力和組織結(jié)構(gòu)。

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【原文】The Trump administration posed an unprecedented challenge to many international organisations

(IOs). This article analyses the ability of IOs to respond and explains variation in the survival strategies pursued

by their institutional actors. It argues that leadership, organisational structure, competences and external

networks affect whether institutional actors can formulate and implement responses to existential challenges.

Providing evidence from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and World Trade Organisation (WTO), this article shows how

institutional actors varied in their ability to pursue survival strategies toward Trump. NATO officials publicly

leveraged the Trump challenge on burden-sharing while quietly shielding the alliance from Trump on Russia

policy. UNFCCC officials considered United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to be inevitable and

focused on preventing further withdrawals through coalitions with non-state actors. WTO officials lacked the

leadership and organisational structure to formulate a strategic response.

4. 透視跨大西洋（錯(cuò)誤）信任：不對(duì)稱、拋棄和聯(lián)盟凝聚力（Trans-atlantic (mis)trust

in perspective: asymmetry, abandonment and alliance cohesion）

Matti Pesu，芬蘭國際事務(wù)研究所的首席研究員

Ville Sinkkonen，芬蘭國際事務(wù)研究所的博士后研究員

【摘要】本文以北約為重點(diǎn)，闡明了信任在聯(lián)盟中的作用。本文將信任作為維持聯(lián)盟凝聚力和長(zhǎng)久性

的核心因素，從而在關(guān)于信任和聯(lián)盟理論的國際關(guān)系學(xué)術(shù)研究之間架起一座橋梁。北約在其整個(gè)歷史

中一直以不對(duì)稱的信任關(guān)系為特征，歐洲比美國更容易叛變。這意味著，大西洋兩岸對(duì)所有聯(lián)盟中的

互惠承諾結(jié)構(gòu)，以及所固有的被遺棄的恐懼有著不同的感受，這對(duì)特定危機(jī)如何導(dǎo)致（錯(cuò)誤）信任的

波動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了影響。歐洲人對(duì)美國的長(zhǎng)期承諾和擴(kuò)展威懾力懷有不信任，而美國人則懷疑歐洲人是否忠

于美國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，是否愿意分擔(dān)聯(lián)盟的負(fù)擔(dān)。與此同時(shí)，由共同利益、制度、相互依存和趨同身份培養(yǎng)

起來的普遍信任將盟國緊密聯(lián)系在一起。本文隨后利用這些見解分析了特朗普就任總統(tǒng)后，美國和歐

洲之間的不信任達(dá)到了歷史性的高峰。盡管出現(xiàn)了意料之外的動(dòng)蕩，但總統(tǒng)任期并沒有導(dǎo)致跨大西洋

關(guān)系中信任的徹底崩潰，更不用說北約了。

【原文】This article clarifies the role of trust in alliances with a focus on NATO. We bridge IR scholarship

on trust and alliance theory by dealing with trust as a central factor in maintaining alliance cohesion and

longevity. NATO has, throughout its history, been characterised by an asymmetric trusting relationship, with

Europe being more vulnerable to defection than its American counterpart. This means that a fear of

abandonment, intrinsic to the structure of reciprocal commitment in all alliances, has been felt differently on

the opposite sides of the Atlantic, with implications for how specific crises have led to a fluctuation in

(mis)trust. Whereas the Europeans have harboured mistrust regarding the longevity of the US commitment

and extended deterrence, the Americans have doubted the Europeans’ faithfulness to US leadership and

willingness to share the alliance’s burdens. Simultaneously, general trust – cultivated by shared interests,

institutions, interdependence and converging identities – has bound the allies together. The article then uses

these insights to analyse the Trump presidency, which marked an historic spike in mistrust between the US

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and the Europeans. Despite the unforeseen tumult, the presidency did not result in the definitive collapse of

trust in the trans-Atlantic relationship, let alone NATO.

5. 阿拉伯起義對(duì)土耳其外交政策的影響：安卡拉的地區(qū)強(qiáng)國幻想（The legacy of the

Arab uprisings on Turkey’s foreign policy: Ankara’s regional power delusion）

Osman Bahadir Din?er，德國波恩國際沖突研究中心（BICC）高級(jí)研究員

【摘要】阿拉伯劇變后，土耳其推行了一項(xiàng)好高騖遠(yuǎn)的地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)議程，這似乎與其基本能力不符?，F(xiàn)

在回過頭來看，阿拉伯動(dòng)亂后有足夠的證據(jù)表明，土耳其的實(shí)力與土耳其統(tǒng)治精英的強(qiáng)硬言論并不相

符，他們聲稱該地區(qū)應(yīng)按照他們的形象進(jìn)行改造。然而，土耳其的外交政策并沒有根據(jù)形勢(shì)進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

相反，土耳其的語氣更加強(qiáng)硬。有大量經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)表明，土耳其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層在該地區(qū)的野心是不可持續(xù)的，

那么為什么土耳其的中東政策沒有進(jìn)行徹底改革呢？本文從多個(gè)定性數(shù)據(jù)來源出發(fā)，認(rèn)為至少有兩個(gè)

因素可以解釋這一悖論：（1）過分自信導(dǎo)致了眩光效應(yīng)；（2）統(tǒng)治精英的文明視角低估了傳統(tǒng)的國

際關(guān)系參數(shù)。

【原文】In the aftermath of the Arab upheavals, Turkey pursued an overambitious regional leadership agenda

that appeared incompatible with its underlying capabilities. In retrospect, there was sufficient evidence in the

wake of the Arab upheavals that Turkey’s power capacity did not match the assertive rhetoric used by Turkish

ruling elites that the region should be remade in their image. However, Turkish foreign policy was not finetuned to the situation. On the contrary, Turkey increased the assertiveness of its tone. In the face of ample

empirical evidence pointing to the unsustainability of Turkish leadership’s ambitions in the region, why did

an overhaul not take place in its Middle East policies? Drawing from multiple qualitative data sources, this

study argues that at least two factors explain this paradox: (i) overconfidence that led to glaze-over effects and

(ii) the civilisational perspective of the ruling elite, which underestimated conventional international relations

parameters.

【編譯：宋欣蔚】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

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《中國國際政治季刊》（The China Journal of International Politics）

The China Journal of International Politics， Vol.17, No.1, 2024

1. 尋求地位：1970-2020 年聯(lián)合國演講中的中國和美國（In Search of Status: China and

the USA in United Nations Speeches, 1970–2020）

Joseph M Parent，美國圣母大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

Paul K MacDonald，美國韋爾斯利學(xué)院政治學(xué)系教授

【摘要】中國處于什么國際地位？這個(gè)問題的答案對(duì)中國在國際爭(zhēng)端中的權(quán)利、責(zé)任和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受度具

有重大影響。盡管對(duì)地位的定義存有爭(zhēng)議，但人們普遍認(rèn)為，地位是由社會(huì)建構(gòu)的，是與同類國家相

較而言的概念，因此很難衡量。本文旨在通過運(yùn)用 1970-2020 年聯(lián)合國一般性辯論發(fā)言中的文本數(shù)據(jù)

來解決定義和測(cè)量的難題。這有助于研究中國在提及自己時(shí)所使用的言辭、他人在提及中國時(shí)所使用

的言辭，以及這些言辭對(duì)于美國而言的體現(xiàn)。與傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)相反，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國既沒有比同類國家更

在意地位，也沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移而更加在意地位，更沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移而獲致地位。這對(duì)世界政

治的影響是復(fù)雜的，但也表明在可預(yù)見的未來，地位不會(huì)成為沖突的主要原因。

【原文】What is China’s status? The answer has major repercussions for China’s rights, responsibilities, and

risk acceptance in international disputes. Although definitions of status are contested, there is broad agreement

that it is socially constructed and relative to peer states, which makes measuring it difficult. We aim to address

definitional and measurement problems by using text as data from United Nations General Debates speeches,

1970–2020. This allows one to see the language China uses to refer to itself, the language by which others

refer to China, and how that compares to the USA. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that China is

not more status obsessed than its peer, is not more status obsessed over time, and is not gaining in status over

time. The implications for world politics are complex but suggest that status will not be a primary cause of

conflict in the foreseeable future.

《中國國際政治季刊》（The China Journal of International

Politics）創(chuàng)刊于 2006 年，2012 年進(jìn)入 SSCI，迄今仍是中

國大陸主辦的唯一一份政治學(xué) SSCI 專業(yè)期刊。自創(chuàng)刊以

來，CJIP 堅(jiān)持發(fā)表原創(chuàng)性學(xué)術(shù)研究成果，重點(diǎn)推動(dòng)國際關(guān)

系理論創(chuàng)新和中國對(duì)外關(guān)系方面的研究，發(fā)表了諸多國內(nèi)

外知名學(xué)者的文章。CJIP 發(fā)表的文章在東亞、歐洲和北美

三地學(xué)者間保持了較好的平衡，在促進(jìn)國際關(guān)系理論多元

化發(fā)展方面發(fā)揮了獨(dú)特作用。2022 年該刊影響因子為 2.0，

在 96 份國際關(guān)系類 SSCI 期刊中名列第 39，是亞洲地區(qū)

排名最高的國際關(guān)系類 SSCI 期刊。

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

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2. 各自為政？非洲當(dāng)?shù)厝A人、世界銀行援助與外國直接投資（Paving Their Own Road?

Local Chinese and World Bank Aid and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa）

Samuel Brazys，愛爾蘭都柏林大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院副教授

Yoo Sun Jung，愛爾蘭都柏林大學(xué)政治與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】中國逐漸成為撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的主要援助國和經(jīng)濟(jì)合作伙伴，這不禁引發(fā)了人們的疑問：

中國在該地區(qū)所做努力的目的和影響是否出于自利的商業(yè)動(dòng)機(jī)？盡管有充分的理由認(rèn)為，一般來說，

對(duì)外援助可以通過改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、制度或人力資本環(huán)境和/或作為一個(gè)地區(qū)是否存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的信號(hào)，使一

個(gè)地區(qū)對(duì)投資更具吸引力，但也有理由懷疑，中國的援助可能是在為中國企業(yè)的投資“鋪路”。為了進(jìn)

行研究，本文利用本地化地理參照數(shù)據(jù)的空間和時(shí)間變化，發(fā)現(xiàn)總體上有力地支持了地方援助促進(jìn)當(dāng)

地外國直接投資（FDI）的觀點(diǎn)。然而，本文也發(fā)現(xiàn)一些證據(jù)表明，與來自第三方國家的 FDI 相比，

中國的援助促進(jìn)了本國的 FDI；但這種差異效應(yīng)在中國的 FDI 對(duì)世界銀行援助的反應(yīng)以及美國援助與

FDI 之間的關(guān)系中也是可見的，這表明中國的 FDI 可能只是伴隨任何援助，其援助與外國直接投資之

間的關(guān)系在雙邊援助國中并不特殊。

【原文】China’s emergence as a major donor and economic partner to sub-Saharan Africa has prompted

questions if the aims and impacts of China’s efforts in the region are driven by self-serving commercial motives.

While there are strong reasons to think that the foreign aid may make a location more attractive to investment,

generally, by improving the infrastructural, institutional, or human capital environment and/or by serving as a

signal of a location’s risk, there is also reason to suspect that Chinese aid may be “paving the way” for

investment by Chinese firms. To investigate, this paper uses spatial and temporal variations in localized, georeferenced data to find a strong overall support that local aid boosts local foreign direct investment (FDI).

However, we also find some evidence that Chinese aid boosts its own FDI compared to FDI from third-party

countries; but this differential effect is also visible with the Chinese FDI’s response to the World Bank aid as

well as in the relationship between both aid and FDI from the USA, suggesting that the Chinese FDI may

simply be following any aid and that the relationship between its aid and FDI is not exceptional among bilateral

donors.

3. 中國的發(fā)展中國家地位之辯：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理中的地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和“公私分化”

（Contesting China’s Developing Country Status: Geoeconomics and the Public–Private

Divide in Global Economic Governance）

Clara Weinhardt，荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學(xué)藝術(shù)與社會(huì)科學(xué)學(xué)院國際關(guān)系助理教授

Johannes Petry，德國法蘭克福歌德大學(xué)國家資本金融研究項(xiàng)目首席研究員

【摘要】新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在地緣政治上的崛起導(dǎo)致了對(duì)發(fā)展中國家地位邊界的爭(zhēng)論和重新談判。老牌強(qiáng)國

向新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體施壓，迫使其放棄發(fā)展中國家地位及其在全球體制中帶來的利益。本文分析了中美地緣

經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)背景下的中國發(fā)展中國家地位（再）談判，涉及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的兩個(gè)核心領(lǐng)域——金融和貿(mào)易。

研究表明，無論是由私營行為體還是公共行為體負(fù)責(zé)的地位劃分，都會(huì)影響中國地位之辯的結(jié)果。當(dāng)

私營部門扮演核心角色時(shí)，中國更有可能在美國的壓力下捍衛(wèi)其發(fā)展中國家地位，而這些過程會(huì)因決

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策過程制度化方式而受到弱化。因而本文的兩個(gè)案例研究表明，地位分類等監(jiān)管過程會(huì)影響國際政治

中地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的結(jié)果。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)還為地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向的背景下，國家與非國家行為體在全球治理中的

權(quán)力關(guān)系提供了新的視角：“公私分化”可以作為一個(gè)重要的背景因素，影響國際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序更多地向美

國或中國的地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略靠攏的可能性。

【原文】The geopolitical rise of emerging economies has led to contestations and renegotiations of the

boundaries of the developing country status. Established powers put pressure on emerging economies to give

up this status and the benefits it comes with in global regimes. In this article, we analyse the (re)negotiation of

China’s developing country status within the context of US–China geoeconomic competition with respect to

two core areas in the global economy—finance and trade. We show that whether private or public actors are

responsible for status classification influences the outcomes of contestation over China’s status. When private

sector actors are central, China is more likely able to defend its developing country status against US pressure.

We also find that these processes are mitigated by how decision-making processes are institutionalised. Our

two case studies thus illustrate that regulatory processes such as status classification influence the outcomes

of geoeconomic competition in international politics. These findings also shed new light on the power of states

versus non-state actors within global governance amidst the geoeconomic turn: the public–private divide can

serve as an important context factor that influences the probability of the international economic order to cater

more towards US or Chinese geoeconomic strategies.

4. 制度建設(shè)如何塑造大國選邊：基于制度視角的中俄伙伴關(guān)系（How InstitutionBuilding Shapes Great Power Alignment: An Institutional Perspective on the China–

Russia Partnership）

Bj?rn Alexander Düben，吉林大學(xué)公共外交學(xué)院助理教授

【摘要】中俄關(guān)系在后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)代蓬勃發(fā)展。盡管中俄關(guān)系已引起學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注，但在過去三十年

中促成雙邊關(guān)系緩和的許多潛在因素仍未得到探討。本文探討了這一進(jìn)程中“兩國之間制度聯(lián)系的發(fā)

展”這一變量所發(fā)揮的作用。在 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代中期之前，雙邊制度基本不存在，如今已迅速發(fā)展成

為一個(gè)由委員會(huì)和小組委員會(huì)、工作組以及其他制度化交流組成的密集網(wǎng)絡(luò)，幾乎涵蓋了中俄兩國互

動(dòng)的所有領(lǐng)域。本文借用了制度主義理論的分析概念，并制定了分析標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，以評(píng)估雙邊制度建設(shè)進(jìn)程

在多大程度上促進(jìn)并延續(xù)了中俄友好關(guān)系，使兩國建立了更緊密的工作關(guān)系。文章還探討了這一進(jìn)程

的局限性。本文的結(jié)論是，雙邊機(jī)構(gòu)建設(shè)對(duì)決策的實(shí)際影響不大，但是這些機(jī)構(gòu)已成為確保高級(jí)決策

者和利益相關(guān)者之間定期交流和熟悉情況的重要論壇，使兩國能夠就各自的政策選擇、意圖和目標(biāo)積

極溝通重要信息并做出相互保證。

【原文】Sino-Russian relations have thrived in the post–Cold War era. While the relationship has attracted

ample academic attention, many of the underlying factors contributing to the bilateral rapprochement over the

past three decades remain un(der)explored. This article examines the role played by one of the factors involved

in this process: the development of institutional links between the two states. Bilateral institutions, which were

largely absent until the mid-1990s, have rapidly proliferated into a dense network of commissions and

subcommissions, working groups, and other institutionalised exchanges, encompassing virtually all sectors of

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interaction between China and Russia. The article employs analytical concepts borrowed from Institutionalist

theory and develops criteria of analysis to assess the extent to which the process of bilateral institution-building

has contributed to promoting and perpetuating Sino-Russian rapprochement, enabling the two states to forge

a closer working relationship with each other. The article also examines what the limits of this process have

been. It concludes that the practical impact of bilateral institution-building on policy-making has been modest;

however, the institutions have come to constitute important forums to secure a regular exchange and

familiarisation between senior decision-makers and stakeholders, allowing for an active communication of

important information and mutual assurances regarding each country’s policy choices, intentions, and

concerns.

5. 文明視野下的多元現(xiàn)代性：評(píng)估全球文明倡議（Multiple Modernities in Civilizational

Perspective: An Assessment of the Global Civilization(s) Initiative）

Barry Buzan，英國倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院國際關(guān)系系名譽(yù)教授

張鋒，華南理工大學(xué)公共政策研究院教授

【摘要】本文從“文明是思考世界秩序的一個(gè)重要概念”這一假設(shè)出發(fā)，認(rèn)為文明在世界政治中日益發(fā)

揮重要作用。本文首先對(duì)“全球文明倡議”（GCI）進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)考察，包括主要內(nèi)容、內(nèi)在意涵、未明

確的問題，以及政策背景。該倡議提出了“不平衡與綜合發(fā)展”（UCD）理論，作為從文明多元主義角

度看待多元現(xiàn)代性的一種方法。隨后，本文對(duì) 19 世紀(jì)初以來的不平衡與綜合發(fā)展（UCD）歷史發(fā)展

進(jìn)行闡述，展示了它是如何從文明的角度產(chǎn)生單一和多元現(xiàn)代性的。倒數(shù)第二部分重點(diǎn)探討了文明多

元化的世界秩序?qū)橹袊鴰淼娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)和機(jī)遇。結(jié)論部分總結(jié)了論證的要點(diǎn)，并就全球文明倡議在作用

良好的情況下可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)提出了更為詳盡的全球愿景。

【原文】This paper starts from the supposition that civilization is an important concept for thinking about

world order, and one that is increasingly coming back into play in world politics. It opens with a close look at

the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI): what does it say, what does it imply, about what is it silent, and what

are its policy contexts? It offers the theory of Uneven and Combined Development (UCD) as a way of looking

at multiple modernities in terms of civilizational pluralism. This is followed by a historical unfolding of UCD

since the early 19th century, showing how it has generated both single and multiple modernities cast in

civilizational terms. The penultimate section focuses on the risks and opportunities that a world order of

civilizational pluralism would create specifically for China. The conclusions summarize the main points of

argument, and set out a more detailed global vision of what the GCI might aim to achieve if played well.

【編譯：馬欣茹】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

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《太平洋評(píng)論》（The Pacific Review）

The Pacific Review，Vol.37, No.1,2024

1. 次強(qiáng)國在印太地區(qū)秩序轉(zhuǎn)型中的施動(dòng)性（The agency of secondary states in order

transition in the Indo-Pacific）

Jaeyoung Kim，加拿大蒙特利爾麥吉爾大學(xué)政治學(xué)系教授

【摘要】自由國際秩序（LIO）目前正處于復(fù)雜的危機(jī)之中。隨著去全球化力量的增長(zhǎng)、對(duì)美國設(shè)計(jì)

的自由國際秩序不滿的新興大國的崛起，以及氣候變化和全球大流行病，自由國際秩序的合法性和可

持續(xù)性面臨考驗(yàn)。印太地區(qū)是中美戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的中心，該地區(qū)的次強(qiáng)國日益關(guān)注其地緣政治后果。然而，

本文認(rèn)為，經(jīng)常被視為大國棋子的次強(qiáng)國可以通過采取各種戰(zhàn)略，最大限度地發(fā)揮自己的影響力，從

而將這種情況轉(zhuǎn)化為自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)。作者認(rèn)為應(yīng)該認(rèn)真對(duì)待這種可能性，即次強(qiáng)國（作者指所有比霸權(quán)

國家和崛起大國弱小的國家）可以塑造中美戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的輪廓和印太地區(qū)新出現(xiàn)的國際秩序?，F(xiàn)有的關(guān)

于秩序轉(zhuǎn)型的文獻(xiàn)專注于大國政治，忽視了次強(qiáng)國可以發(fā)展和行使自己的施動(dòng)性這一事實(shí)。此外，施

動(dòng)性在國際關(guān)系中的含義以及次強(qiáng)國如何行使施動(dòng)性仍然模糊不清。在此背景下，作者提出了一個(gè)分

析框架，從三個(gè)維度：施動(dòng)性的動(dòng)機(jī)、動(dòng)員資源的類型以及合作伙伴的可用性來解讀各種類型的施動(dòng)

性。這將有助于解釋弱小國家如何參與重塑印太地區(qū)的國際秩序并發(fā)出自己的聲音。

【原文】The liberal international order (LIO) is now in a complex crisis. Its legitimacy and sustainability are

put to the test with the growth of deglobalization forces, the rise of emerging powers dissatisfied with the LIO

designed by the US, and climate change and the global pandemic. The crisis of the LIO is particularly salient

in the Indo-Pacific, the epicenter of the US-China strategic competition, and secondary states in this region

are increasingly concerned about its geopolitical consequences. However, I argue that secondary states often

treated as the pawns of great powers can turn this circumstance to their advantage by adopting various

strategies that maximize their leverage. We should take seriously the possibility that secondary states, by which

I denote all states that are weaker or smaller than the hegemonic state and the rising power, can shape the

contours of the US-China strategic competition and the newly emerging international order in the Indo-Pacific

region. Preoccupied with great power politics, the existing literature on order transition has neglected the fact

《太平洋評(píng)論》（The Pacific Review）是太平洋地區(qū)研究

的主要平臺(tái)，作為跨學(xué)科期刊，其宗旨和目標(biāo)為打破研究

領(lǐng)域之間以及學(xué)術(shù)界、新聞界、政府和商界之間的壁壘，

重點(diǎn)關(guān)注政策問題。根據(jù) Journal Citation Reports 顯示，

2021 年該刊的影響因子為 2.074。

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

133

that secondary states can develop and exercise their own agency. Moreover, it remains vague what agency

means in IR and how secondary states enact it. Against this backdrop, I propose an analytical framework that

unpacks various types of agency along three dimensions—the motivation of agency, the type of mobilized

resources, and the availability of partners. It will help us explain how weaker and smaller states participate

and make their voice in reshaping international order in the Indo-Pacific.

2. 精英角色概念與印尼在“東盟印太展望”中的角色：奪回領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位（Elite role

conceptions and Indonesia’s agency in the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific: reclaiming

leadership）

Pia Dannhauer，澳大利亞布里斯班格里菲斯大學(xué)政府與國際關(guān)系學(xué)院

【摘要】2019 年 6 月，東盟發(fā)布了一個(gè)共同的區(qū)域愿景，即“東盟印太展望”（AOIP）。該文件結(jié)

束了一場(chǎng)關(guān)于如何應(yīng)對(duì)印太戰(zhàn)略的概念、美國的印太戰(zhàn)略以及地區(qū)安全架構(gòu)的新內(nèi)容特別是關(guān)于美日

印澳四國集團(tuán)的爭(zhēng)論。印尼傳統(tǒng)上是東盟的主導(dǎo)者，在該組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力被削弱一段時(shí)間后，動(dòng)用了大量

外交資本發(fā)展和確保達(dá)成“東盟印太展望”的機(jī)會(huì)。對(duì)這種行為的主流研究并不能完全解釋為什么該

國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)建設(shè)了“東盟印太展望”，盡管大多數(shù)分析人士都認(rèn)為，這一外交政策的制定較少受到印尼總

統(tǒng)佐科（2014 -）的影響。本文提出了一種獨(dú)創(chuàng)的“角色整合”模型，認(rèn)為印尼能夠領(lǐng)導(dǎo)“東盟印太

展望”，是因?yàn)樽艨瓶偨y(tǒng)對(duì)海上合作和經(jīng)濟(jì)外交的偏好，與印尼外交部維護(hù)東盟團(tuán)結(jié)和中心地位的努

力是一致的。本研究的發(fā)現(xiàn)為塑造印尼在“東盟印太展望”中的作用的國內(nèi)決策過程提供了新的實(shí)證

見解，并通過將分析重點(diǎn)從國內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)轉(zhuǎn)向可以塑造國家角色概念的合作動(dòng)態(tài)，豐富了角色理論文獻(xiàn)。

【原文】In June 2019, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued a shared regional vision,

the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The document ended a debate about how to respond to the

concept of the Indo-Pacific, the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, and new additions to regional security

architecture, especially the Quad. Indonesia, traditionally a leading voice in ASEAN, exerted significant

diplomatic capital developing and securing agreement on the AOIP after a period of diminished leadership

from the organisation. Dominant explanations for this behaviour cannot fully address why the country led in

constructing AOIP despite what most analysts agree was the disengagement of President Joko ‘Jokowi’

Widodo (2014 -) from foreign policy. Developing an original ‘role integration’ model, this article argues that

Indonesia was able to lead on AOIP because President Jokowi’s preference for maritime cooperation and

economic diplomacy integrated with the Indonesian Foreign Ministry’s efforts to maintain ASEAN unity and

centrality in this instance. The findings of this research offer both new empirical insights into the domestic

decision-making processes that shaped Indonesia’s agency in AOIP and add to the role theory literature by

shifting the analytical focus from domestic contestation to cooperative dynamics that can shape the national

role conception.

3. 建設(shè)和平中的施動(dòng)-結(jié)構(gòu)問題：在朝鮮沖突中構(gòu)建有利地位（The agency-structure

problem in peacebuilding: constructing a niche in the Korean conflict）

Dong Jin Kim，愛爾蘭都柏林圣三一大學(xué)愛爾蘭普世教會(huì)學(xué)校

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Youngchul Chung，韓國麻浦區(qū)西江大學(xué)公共政策研究生院

【摘要】朝鮮沖突的結(jié)構(gòu)動(dòng)態(tài)不僅隨著朝韓之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)而演變，而且還隨著大國競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的地緣政治而演

變。在朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和冷戰(zhàn)期間，沖突結(jié)構(gòu)得到了加強(qiáng)。冷戰(zhàn)后，韓國曾多次提出與朝鮮建立和平的倡議，

但由于美朝在朝鮮核與導(dǎo)彈開發(fā)問題上的沖突升級(jí)，以及韓國社會(huì)對(duì)朝鮮政策的爭(zhēng)議，和平進(jìn)程起伏

不定。本文基于社會(huì)學(xué)對(duì)“結(jié)構(gòu)二重性”的理解和生物學(xué)對(duì)“生態(tài)位建設(shè)”的洞察，論證了韓國作為一個(gè)

“民主國家”在持續(xù)的朝鮮沖突結(jié)構(gòu)下，為其公民與朝鮮的和平建設(shè)構(gòu)建生態(tài)位的潛力，以及當(dāng)政府因

缺乏公民共識(shí)而對(duì)其政策缺乏明確的代入感時(shí)，在擴(kuò)大沖突結(jié)構(gòu)的破壞之前保護(hù)該空間的局限性。

【原文】The structural dynamics of the Korean conflict has evolved not only with the inter-Korean rivalry,

but also the geopolitics of great power rivalries. The conflict structure was reinforced going through the Korean

War and the Cold War. There have been several South Korean initiatives to build peace with North Korea in

the post-Cold War era, however the peace process fluctuated due to the escalation of the US-North Korean

conflict over the nuclear and missile development of North Korea, and the dispute over North Korea policy in

the South Korean society. Building on the sociological understanding of “duality of structure” and the

biological insight of “niche construction”, this article demonstrates the South Korean potential, as a democratic

state, to construct a niche space for its citizens’ peacebuilding with North Korea under the ongoing Korean

conflict structure, as well as its limitations in protecting the space before scaling out the disruption of the

conflict structure, when governments do not have a clear sense of agency about their policy due to the lack of

consensus among its citizens.

4. 不對(duì)稱的轉(zhuǎn)變：菲律賓和越南南海政策的演變及關(guān)注的不對(duì)稱性（The transformation

of asymmetry: the evolution of Philippine and Vietnamese South China Sea policies and

the asymmetry of attention）

Guangyi Pan，澳大利亞新南威爾士州悉尼市新南威爾士大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)學(xué)院

Thu Hien Phan，澳大利亞新南威爾士州悉尼市新南威爾士大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)學(xué)院

【摘要】由于能力的差距，國家間的關(guān)系大多是不對(duì)稱的。這并不意味著強(qiáng)者可以隨意壓制弱者，因

為這樣做可能得不償失。如果弱者認(rèn)為某個(gè)問題比強(qiáng)者更重要，那么前者可能會(huì)投入更多的注意力，

以建立更堅(jiān)定的意志和更強(qiáng)硬的立場(chǎng)來應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)前的壓力。然而，中國的南海政策和周邊國家的反應(yīng)表

明了另一種情況：如果大國將注意力轉(zhuǎn)移到同一問題上，并為此投入更多的政治資源，小國可能會(huì)失

去高度關(guān)注的優(yōu)勢(shì)。這是不對(duì)稱政治既有理論中缺失的一環(huán)。本文研究了 2014 年至 2016 年間（尤其

是在 2016 年仲裁之后）菲律賓和越南在中國外交傾向于優(yōu)先考慮南海問題前后所做的相關(guān)政策調(diào)整。

作者認(rèn)為，隨著美國在該地區(qū)的存在日益增加，中國對(duì)南海問題的關(guān)注發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)移，這反映出中國政

府決定投入更多的外交資源和時(shí)間來形成一致的戰(zhàn)略，以取代之前不加關(guān)注的非協(xié)調(diào)政策（這在過去

曾推動(dòng)小國做出重大政策調(diào)整）。通過分析菲律賓和越南在南海問題上的立場(chǎng)，本文分析了這兩個(gè)國

家在注意力轉(zhuǎn)移后從積極主動(dòng)地將南海問題國際化到低調(diào)地試圖與中國修好的政策轉(zhuǎn)變的原因。因此，

本研究旨在揭示小國政策調(diào)整背后的動(dòng)機(jī)，并擴(kuò)大不對(duì)稱關(guān)注理論的解釋范圍。

【原文】Most relations among states are asymmetric due to a disparity of capacities. This does not mean the

strong can crush the weak at will, as the cost could outweigh the gain. If the weaker side sees an issue as more

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

135

important than the stronger side, the former is likely to invest more attention into building a more robust will

and tougher stance against the pressure at hand. However, China’s South China Sea (SCS) policy and

neighbouring states’ responses to it demonstrate another scenario: small states may lose the advantages of

heightened attention if the great power shifts its focus onto the same issue, dedicating more political resources

to it. This represents a missing piece in the established theory of asymmetric politics. The present article

examines pertinent policy adjustments by the Philippines and Vietnam before and after Chinese diplomacy

gravitated towards prioritising the SCS from 2014 to 2016, especially after the 2016 Arbitration. I argue that,

with the US increasingly presence in the region, China’s attention shift to the SCS reflects Beijing’s decision

to put more diplomatic resources and time into forming a consistent strategy to replace its uncoordinated

policies out of the inattention, which previously motivated small states to make significant policy adjustments

in response. In analysing Philippine and the Vietnamese stances on the South China Sea, I gauge the reasons

for the two countries’ policy changes from a proactive stance in internationalising the issue to a low-profile

posture as an attempt to mend fences with China after the attention shift. Hence, this study aims to reveal the

motives behind small states’ policy adjustments, as well as to expand the explanatory scope of the theory of

asymmetric attention.

5. 在中美戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中推銷“獨(dú)立外交政策”：民粹主義與杜特爾特政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的菲律

賓外交政策（Selling “independent foreign policy” amid the US–China rivalry: populism

and Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government）

Weiqing Song，中國澳門氹仔澳門大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)院政府與公共行政系

Joseph Ching Velasco，菲律賓馬尼拉德拉薩爾大學(xué)政治學(xué)與發(fā)展研究系

【摘要】本文探討了杜特爾特政府時(shí)期（2016-2022 年）的菲律賓外交政策。在此期間，人們普遍認(rèn)

為菲律賓的外交政策發(fā)生了巨大轉(zhuǎn)變，政府以犧牲與美國的傳統(tǒng)同盟關(guān)系為代價(jià)，對(duì)中國做出了友好

姿態(tài)。從外交政策分析的角度來看，本文明確關(guān)注政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)在指導(dǎo)國家外交政策中的作用。本文認(rèn)為，

杜特爾特政府在推行其民粹主義外交政策時(shí)戰(zhàn)略性地利用了政治營銷。因此，政治營銷作為一種分析

視角，用來審視杜特爾特政府的許多言論和行為，尤其是其對(duì)中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的回應(yīng)。通過參與這種所謂的

外交游戲，杜特爾特政府試圖將其外交政策承諾和成果作為產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行銷售，即使其言論有時(shí)與實(shí)際表

現(xiàn)脫節(jié)。總之，本文提出了另一種有助于我們理解民粹主義外交政策舉措在脆弱民主環(huán)境中的作用的

視角。

【原文】This paper examines Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government (2016–2022). During

this period, Philippine foreign policy is widely acknowledged to have undergone dramatic shifts, with the

government making friendly overtures towards China at the cost of its traditional alliance with the US. From

a foreign policy analysis perspective, this paper explicitly focuses on the role of political leadership in guiding

national foreign policy. This paper argues that the Duterte government made strategic use of political

marketing in promoting its populist foreign policy. Thus, political marketing is used as an analytical lens with

which to examine much of the rhetoric and behaviour of the Duterte government, particularly in regard to its

response to the US–China rivalry. By engaging in this supposedly diplomatic game, the Duterte government

136

tried to sell its foreign policy promises and outcomes as products even when its rhetoric was at times

disconnected from its actual performance. Overall, this paper develops an alternative perspective from which

to add to our understanding of the role of populist foreign policy initiatives in a fragile democratic setting.

6. 非我之戰(zhàn)：東盟各國政府對(duì)俄烏沖突的反應(yīng)對(duì)認(rèn)識(shí)東南亞的啟示（Not our war. What

ASEAN governments’ responses to the Ukraine war tell us about Southeast Asia）

Frederick Kliem，新加坡南洋理工大學(xué)拉惹勒南國際關(guān)系學(xué)院多邊主義研究中心

【摘要】俄烏沖突受到了“政治西方”國家政府的廣泛譴責(zé)。大多數(shù)其他國家在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中要么保持

中立，要么甚至傾向于俄羅斯。東南亞也不例外。西方有一種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，這些國家不愿明確站在俄羅

斯對(duì)立面的主要原因是他們與莫斯科的關(guān)系，甚至可能是依賴關(guān)系；從表面上看，這是一種合乎邏輯

的推斷。本文認(rèn)為，雖然這種說法有一定道理，但各國政府對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的反應(yīng)與他們與莫斯科的雙邊關(guān)系

之間存在不相稱特征，從而不足以作為令人滿意的解釋。相反，必須超越物質(zhì)主義的單一因果解釋。

要想了解全貌，就必須了解東南亞的外交傳統(tǒng)、其開放包容的地區(qū)主義形式以及對(duì)國內(nèi)政治的持續(xù)關(guān)

注。本研究首次對(duì)東南亞對(duì)俄烏沖突的反應(yīng)進(jìn)行了全面的實(shí)證分類，并對(duì)東盟的外交文化進(jìn)行了回顧。

【原文】Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been widely condemned by governments of the ‘political West’.

Most other states have been either neutral or even Russia-leaning in this war. Southeast Asia is no exception.

There is a sense in the West that the primary explanation for this reluctance to unambiguously side against

Russia is the relationship, perhaps even dependency, that these states may have vis-à-vis Moscow; prima facie,

a logical presumption. This article finds that while there is some truth to this claim, the relations between

individual governments’ responses to the war and their bilateral relationships with Moscow is too uneven to

suffice as a satisfactory explanation. Instead, one must look beyond materialistic, mono-causal explanations.

To get the full picture, one must appreciate Southeast Asia’s diplomatic tradition, their form of open and

inclusive regionalism and the continued focus on domestic politics. This research provides the first

comprehensive empirical categorisation of Southeast Asian responses to the Ukraine war and traces these to

ASEAN’s diplomatic culture.

【編譯：鄒梓軒】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

137

《亞太國際關(guān)系》（International Relations of the Asia-Pacific）

International Relations of the Asia-Pacific， Vol 24, No 1, Jan2024

1. 從“國”到“天下”：兩種道家國際關(guān)系理論的聯(lián)系（From guo to tianxia: linking

two Daoist theories of International Relations）

Devin Joshi，新加坡管理大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授

【摘要】道家思想是亞洲歷史悠久的國際政治理論傳統(tǒng)之一，本研究探討了道家的國際關(guān)系理論（IRT）。

本研究以老子的《道德經(jīng)》為基礎(chǔ)，闡明了道家的兩種國際關(guān)系理論。首先，《老子》提供了一種以

國家為中心、以“國”為基礎(chǔ)的國際關(guān)系理論，該理論用以制定外交政策和處理國家間關(guān)系，強(qiáng)調(diào)以柔

克剛。其次，《老子》提供了一種烏托邦式的、以“道”為基礎(chǔ)的、以“天下”為中心的國際關(guān)系理論，

通過“道”來消解國家間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)與宇宙的自然節(jié)奏相和諧的和平的全球治理。既有研究往往只

關(guān)注這兩種理論之一，本文則認(rèn)為這兩種觀點(diǎn)緊密聯(lián)系，第一種理論更為務(wù)實(shí)，且為第二種理論奠定

了基石。這種聯(lián)系展示了道家思想如何提供了一種復(fù)雜的非西方國際關(guān)系理論，對(duì)解決當(dāng)今世界面臨

的挑戰(zhàn)具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。

【原文】This study examines the international relations theory (IRT) of Daoism, one of Asia’s long-standing

traditions to have theorized international politics. Drawing upon Laozi’s Dao De Jing, this study elucidates

two Daoist IR theories. First, Laozi provides a state-focused guo-based IRT for conducting foreign policy and

managing inter-state relations with emphasis on yielding and softness to overcome violence and domination.

Second, Laozi offers a Utopian and globalist tianxia-centered IRT based on following the Dao whereby interstate rivalry is dissolved in favor of peaceful planetary governance in harmony with the natural rhythms of the

cosmos. Whereas previous scholarship often concentrates on only one of these two scenarios, I argue the two

visions are tightly connected with the more pragmatic first theory envisioned as a stepping stone to obtaining

the second. This link demonstrates how Daoism offers a sophisticated non-Western IRT with relevance to

addressing planetary challenges today.

《亞太國際關(guān)系》（ International Relations of the AsiaPacific），簡(jiǎn)稱“IRAP”，是出版在亞太區(qū)域最好的原創(chuàng)性

文章的主流國際期刊。本刊創(chuàng)刊于 2001 年，每年在一、

五、九月各發(fā)行一刊?！秮喬珖H關(guān)系》的創(chuàng)刊目的有二：

其一是給讀者奉獻(xiàn)亞太國際關(guān)系領(lǐng)域的優(yōu)質(zhì)研究成果，其

二是為從事亞太國際關(guān)系的學(xué)者提供專業(yè)的學(xué)術(shù)平臺(tái)。該

刊著眼于亞太區(qū)域內(nèi)國際關(guān)系，亞太與世界其他區(qū)域的關(guān)

系、涉及亞太國家的國際關(guān)系一般性事務(wù)與理論。根據(jù)

IRAP 官網(wǎng)顯示，當(dāng)前影響因子為 2.545。

138

2. 駕馭大國競(jìng)爭(zhēng)：新古典現(xiàn)實(shí)主義觀點(diǎn)之“對(duì)沖”（Navigating great power

competition: a neoclassical realist view of hedging）

Hunter S Marston，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)國際關(guān)系專業(yè)博士

【摘要】與小國將制衡外部威脅的預(yù)測(cè)相反，東南亞國家正在通過同時(shí)深化與美國和中國的安全合作

來對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。鑒于人們對(duì)中國崛起帶來的威脅感知日益增強(qiáng)，以及兩極壓力不斷加大，有關(guān)對(duì)沖的主

流觀點(diǎn)無法充分解釋此類政策選擇持續(xù)存在的原因。在考慮到現(xiàn)有理論的局限性后，本文認(rèn)為新古典

現(xiàn)實(shí)主義對(duì)沖路徑更好地整合了影響決策者偏好的國內(nèi)和國際因素。本文結(jié)合該理論框架進(jìn)行了三個(gè)

案例研究：新加坡、越南和菲律賓。新古典現(xiàn)實(shí)主義謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待個(gè)人觀念和官僚機(jī)構(gòu)的作用，但又沒有

忽視新現(xiàn)實(shí)主義范式下變量的重要性，如安全威脅、條約聯(lián)盟和經(jīng)濟(jì)利益等。最終，其更全面、更準(zhǔn)

確地解讀了繼續(xù)推動(dòng)?xùn)|南亞國家對(duì)沖以降低大國沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素。

【原文】Contrary to predictions that smaller powers will balance against or bandwagon with external threats,

Southeast Asian states are hedging by deepening their security cooperation with both the United States and

China. Prevailing accounts of hedging do not adequately explain the persistence of such policy choices given

growing threat perceptions of China and mounting bipolar pressures. After considering the limitations of

existing theories, this article contends that a neoclassical realist approach to hedging better integrates the

domestic and international factors that inform decision-makers’ preferences. It operationalizes this theoretical

framework in three case studies: Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A neoclassical realist approach

takes the role of individual perceptions and bureaucracies seriously, without dismissing the significance of

variables identified by neorealism, including security threats, treaty alliances, and economic benefits.

Ultimately, a more complete and accurate understanding of what continues to propel hedging in Southeast

Asian states can mitigate the risks of great power conflict.

3. 既不促進(jìn)也不推廣民主：佐科·維多多領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的印尼在巴厘島民主論壇上的中等強(qiáng)國

特征（Neither promoting nor projecting democracy: Indonesia’s middlepowermanship in

the Bali democracy forum under Joko Widodo）

Mohamad Rosyidin，印尼迪波內(nèi)戈羅大學(xué)國際關(guān)系系文學(xué)碩士

Indra Kusumawardhana，印尼佩塔米納大學(xué)國際關(guān)系研究項(xiàng)目博士

【摘要】盡管印尼總統(tǒng)佐科·維多多(Joko Widodo)的外交政策具有務(wù)實(shí)特質(zhì)，該國的民主指數(shù)也有所

下降，但印尼仍然渴望繼續(xù)舉辦巴厘島民主論壇(BDF)。本文旨在運(yùn)用中等大國外交的概念來解釋這

一明顯的矛盾。本文認(rèn)為，與其前任相比，維多多并不認(rèn)為 BDF 是促進(jìn)或在國外推廣民主的工具。

相反，維多多認(rèn)為 BDF 強(qiáng)調(diào)了印尼在多邊論壇中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。這種“中等強(qiáng)國特征”挑戰(zhàn)了以精英為

基礎(chǔ)的解釋印尼外交政策的方法，這種方法格外強(qiáng)調(diào)佐科維的個(gè)人性格特征。印尼國防軍在維多多的

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下得以延續(xù)，反映出印尼對(duì)自身中等大國地位的默認(rèn)思維。

【原文】Despite the pragmatic character of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s foreign policy and the

regression of the country’s democracy index, Indonesia remains eager for the continuation of Bali Democracy

Forum (BDF). This article aims to solve this apparent contradiction using the concept of middle power

2024 年第 3 期（總第 15 期）

139

diplomacy. This article argues that, in contrast to his predecessor, Widodo does not perceive BDF as an

instrument to promote or project democracy abroad. Rather, Widodo considers the BDF to accentuate

Indonesia’s leadership role in multilateral fora. This ‘middlepowermanship’ challenges the elite-based

approach in explaining Indonesia’s foreign policy, which puts a strong emphasis on Jokowi’s personal

character traits. The continuation of the BDF under Widodo reflects Indonesia’s default thinking of its status

as a middle power.

4. 美國會(huì)保衛(wèi)臺(tái)灣嗎？——基于臺(tái)灣地區(qū)和美國的民意分析（Will the United States

come to Taiwan’s defense? Analysis of public opinion in Taiwan and the United States）

吳重禮，“中研院”政治研究所所長(zhǎng)

林敏偉，臺(tái)灣政治大學(xué)公共行政學(xué)系博士

【摘要】如果兩岸之間爆發(fā)沖突，美國會(huì)來保護(hù)臺(tái)灣嗎? 中國大陸在該地區(qū)日益增強(qiáng)的自信，以及在

臺(tái)島周邊頻繁的軍事活動(dòng)，重燃了人們對(duì)這個(gè)存在了幾十年的問題的興趣。本研究采用兩項(xiàng)調(diào)查，分

別于臺(tái)灣地區(qū)和美國展開。美國的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，盡管大多數(shù)美國人對(duì)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)持積極看法，但在假

設(shè)中國大陸“發(fā)動(dòng)進(jìn)攻”時(shí)，美國更傾向于采取何種軍事反應(yīng)方面，幾乎沒有達(dá)成共識(shí)。這些分析有

助于推動(dòng)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)關(guān)于臺(tái)灣地區(qū)和美國關(guān)于臺(tái)海沖突可能性的輿論演變的研究。

【原文】If conflict breaks out between Taiwan and China, would the United States come to the island’s

defense? China’s growing assertiveness in the region and aggressive military activities around Taiwan have

renewed interest in this decades-old question. This study examines the issue by employing two surveys, one

conducted in Taiwan and another in the United States. Results of the Taiwan survey indicate that while a

majority of Taiwan citizens do indeed believe the United States would help defend Taiwan if it were attacked

by China, five types of respondents—idealists, pragmatists, democracy skeptics, political realists, and

pessimists—can be discerned, each with a distinctive pattern of reasoning. Findings from the US survey reveal

that while Americans mostly hold positive views of Taiwan, there is little consensus on the preferred US

military response in the event of a Chinese attack. These analyses contribute to the existing literature on

evolving public opinion in Taiwan and the United States concerning the possibility of armed conflict in the

Taiwan Strait.

【編譯：馬欣茹】

【責(zé)任編輯：嚴(yán)瑾怡】